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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #26,141
  • Sep 3, 2013 6:05am Sep 3, 2013 6:05am
Anyone tried trend following with this method? I've been experimenting with using this method for entry signals and holding a trade till the market takes out my stoploss. It looks to be quite a profitable play offering RR of 1:3 and above. Of course, the win rate suffers.

EXAMPLE:
USDCHF H1(See Chart)

Entry 1: 0.9227, SL: 0.9207
Entry 2: 0.9267, SL: 0.9247
Entry 3: 0.9335, SL: 0.9315

Move entry 1 to BE after Market moved 1R in our favor. Progressively move SL to the next swing low. Enter 2nd position if there's a signal, move entry 1's SL to where entry 2's SL is at, and so on. Basically, the second trade onwards would be free. We keep averaging up till we run out of margin or the market takes us out. The USDCHF chart shows that the market would have offered 1:5 on entry 1. Of course, there will be a lot of instances where we BE or suffer a small loss. Most likely winrate would drop to below 50%. Drawdown would be terrible.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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If my answers frighten you then you should cease asking scary questions.
  • #26,142
  • Sep 4, 2013 2:58am Sep 4, 2013 2:58am
Reply to -
Quoting Fuiyong
Hi Binnie, Thanks for your reply. Do you trade range? Have I understood correctly in Philip's video that were could also take trade if they are in range but provided of course it meets the 4MSCD rules. Have you taken any? ....

Hi FY - IMHO there was nothing to excite me there. We need to get back to some sort of Rythym which means price moving in a strong direction. Unless you are a breakout trader, I would sit happily on my hands to see what Mr. Market wants to do. Phillip has done a lesson or two on Range Trading and I have attached these...

Sorry mate - my reply cut off short. There are 2 MP3's to go with the PDF and these can be located in Post # 8012/8013.
Cheers
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf Range Bound Trading (1) PDF.pdf   45 KB | 640 downloads
  • #26,143
  • Sep 4, 2013 3:07am Sep 4, 2013 3:07am
Quoting edge-t
Anyone tried trend following with this method? I've been experimenting with using this method for entry signals and holding a trade till the market takes out my stoploss. It looks to be quite a profitable play offering RR of 1:3 and above. Of course, the win rate suffers. EXAMPLE: USDCHF H1(See Chart) Entry 1: 0.9227, SL: 0.9207 Entry 2: 0.9267, SL: 0.9247 Entry 3: 0.9335, SL: 0.9315 Move entry 1 to BE after Market moved 1R in our favor. Progressively move SL to the next swing low. Enter 2nd position if there's a signal, move entry 1's SL to where...
Hi Edge - No I personally do not use this method as a Trend System. I have enough battles learning the H4 method that Phillip has put in front of us .
I hope you don't mind if we just concentrate on the thread as it is. Introducing new concepts may only confuse us further. If you think you could have stumbled onto something significant, perhaps you could start another thread and we can follow you in that one.
Cheers Buddy
  • #26,144
  • Sep 4, 2013 7:03am Sep 4, 2013 7:03am
No worries. Just checking with people with more experience. Yes, I'm struggling with the method too... Probably the reason why I'm looking at taking the good trades for a higher RR ratio. Will try it out and post back.
If my answers frighten you then you should cease asking scary questions.
  • #26,145
  • Sep 5, 2013 7:18am Sep 5, 2013 7:18am
I still can't figure out what's the significance of the 365 and 200ma? Can someone give me some insight? Thanks
  • #26,146
  • Sep 5, 2013 5:45pm Sep 5, 2013 5:45pm
Quoting Fuiyong
I still can't figure out what's the significance of the 365 and 200ma? Can someone give me some insight? Thanks
Good Morning FY,
In a rush to go away for the weekend so will make this short.
In Phillip's posts, he indicates the 200 & 365 to be areas for targets both S/loss & Take Profit. Just be aware that these levels are used by many traders for different reasons so Price can either stall , turn back or zoom past . if you are looking to enter a trade, and there is any MA in your way, just be careful - especially with the 200 which from my short experience seems to be the stronger. I recall reading somewhere, that we should trade AWAY from ANY level of S&R.
Hopefully Trademin / Nausting or even the boss himself can jump in here and elaborate a bit more.

BTW - great to see you Phillip even if it was only a very brief appearance.
  • #26,147
  • Sep 9, 2013 5:36am Sep 9, 2013 5:36am
Hello
I modify BB_MACD Indicator and Write MOM_MACD Indicator (Momentum MACD):
https://login.mql5.com/en/users/behzad.h
http://forum.mql4.com/57749
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusdh1.png Size: 74 KB
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 MOM_MACD.mq4   5 KB | 455 downloads
  • #26,148
  • Edited Sep 25, 2013 6:46am Sep 24, 2013 8:14am | Edited Sep 25, 2013 6:46am
Hi, back from summer, went into a Trade:GBPUSD short.

I took it late. definitely a negative divergence on right shoulder, RT. targets are as usual. Except a possible support (on a daily chart) around 1.5725; which is Fib 61.8%.

---Again, as I mentioned earlier:
Phillip Nel
talked about Head and Shoulders formation. Surely that each top are RT. Recognising in this case the fact that the last shoulder (right) doesn't represent the "effort" done by the price itself, imply a possible (hidden) weakness in momentum.- what I like the most is when there is a TC formation just below the 21ema; to me, it is a confirmation of that lost in momentum, sometime followed by a big move in price action.
edit(17:36gmt):
price is pulling back to the 21ema: the 21ema (on the 4hrs chart) is about flat, so a possibility of price acting on both side of it. The Macd is below zero, pulling back to it, still a possibility of turning back down, making a nice TC at the same time…will see…

edit (11:44gmt)the pair doesn't want to give up…21ema about flat, price moving back above the 21ema,I was expecting a TC not a RB . Price moving within consolidation with strenght, will see…




let's see what the market will do…

any comments welcome.
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Yvon
  • #26,149
  • Sep 24, 2013 9:09am Sep 24, 2013 9:09am
Quoting binnie
{quote} Good Morning FY, In a rush to go away for the weekend so will make this short. In Phillip's posts, he indicates the 200 & 365 to be areas for targets both S/loss & Take Profit. Just be aware that these levels are used by many traders for different reasons so Price can either stall , turn back or zoom past . if you are looking to enter a trade, and there is any MA in your way, just be careful - especially with the 200 which from my short experience seems to be the stronger. I recall reading somewhere, that we should trade AWAY from ANY level...

Hi Binnie!


I couldn't say it better!-surely those are importants mas! It is heavy trafic there! One can also find info done by Phillip Nel on youtube just search for 4hrs macd strategy and Voilà!
Yvon
  • #26,150
  • Sep 24, 2013 5:42pm Sep 24, 2013 5:42pm
Quoting trademin
Hi, back from summer, went into a Trade:GBPUSD short. I took it late. definitely a negative divergence on right shoulder, RT. targets are as usual. Except a possible support (on a daily chart) around 1.5725; which is Fib 61.8%. ---Again, as I mentioned earlier: Phillip Nel talked about Head and Shoulders formation. Surely that each top are RT. Recognising in this case the fact that the last shoulder (right) doesn't represent the "effort" done by the price itself, imply a possible (hidden) weakness in momentum.- what I like the most is when there...
Hi Yvon - welcome home . We have missed you. Did you do anything exciting while on your break ?
I know you are a master of the H & S and it is great you are able to share your trades using this pattern . I just hope I can pick up the knack you have to see these forming. When you explain what you are seeing, it makes it a lot easier to follow so please keep sharing these trades with us. I am still coming to grips with the standard rythym trades so will stick to these meantime.
If I may ask , you have taken an obvious CounterTrend entry here ( IMHO). Price action above 89 / strong recent movement along the 8 / 21 ma's. Do you place much emphasis on this or do you happily react to what the chart is showing you ? I would never even thought about a Short here - Price above 89, a S/R level just below at 1.5960 and at the time of your entry - price was above the 21 still so not sure yet where things are heading. Now that we have a close below the 21 & a retest, there is the possibility of another move down. I have tried to explain what I am seeing on my chart attached. Even if I get another bearish close and a confirmation by the Macd ( TC ), I will be vigilant around that 1.5960 which has now been both Resistance and more recently Support.
What do you reckon ?
Good you are back buddy

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  • #26,151
  • Edited Sep 25, 2013 12:00am Sep 24, 2013 8:13pm | Edited Sep 25, 2013 12:00am

I know you are a master of the H & S:

it is funny that you say that, I'm not. It's just that I look at market with the 4 hrs macd strategy in mind. The rhythm is important more than particularly looking at HS as such. When price and macd are not in harmony (diverge.), there is a reason for that, macd incorporates a momentum in itself thus expressing a supplementary emotion that could embrace the rhythm of the market. So I look where the rhythm is, it comes easier to imagine where the price could go next-but if I see it(the rhythm)and a HS under construction, then it just support the 4hrs Macd Strat -still an HS has his own effect on market, no doubt!- then, the story about direction of market just develop as the market is willing to show it.

At that point(when I did opened the trade)the HS projection was about 244 pips from the break down point!(1.6000 aprox) -totally working with the Macd Strat still having the prime role . It doesn't mean that the trade will work out well. The market goes where it goes! I can't change that at all.

( there is a down trend starting from march 30, 2009)


and it is great you are able to share your trades using this pattern . I just hope I can pick up the knack you have to see these formingfile:///C:UsersYvonAppDataLocalTempmsohtml112clip_image001.gif. When you explain what you are seeing, it makes it a lot easier to follow so please keep sharing these trades with us. I am still coming to grips with the standard rythym trades so will stick to these meantime.(you're doing excellent work Binnie)

If I may ask , you have taken an obvious CounterTrend entry here ( IMHO). Price action above 89 / strong recent movement along the 8 / 21 ma's. Do you place much emphasis on this or do you happily react to what the chart is showing you ?

Did the price break the 21ema? Yes.

Should we eventually expect a pull back to the 21ema? Yes.

Then a move away? Yes

But never forget that market could go back above the 21…then pull back to it…then move away! J

I would never even thought about a Short here - Price above 89, a
S/R level just below at 1.5960 and at the time of your entry - price was (below) above the 21 still so not sure yet where things are heading(maybe the vertical doted line got you into confusion-sorry about that-. the vertical line shows only the breakout line for the HS. So 244 pips should be calculated from that point.---As I said, I took the trade late. I could have taken it sooner, but I was out for quite some time today. Now that we have a close below the 21 & a retest, there is the possibility of another move down (Yes). I have tried to explain what I am seeing on my chart attached -(nice explanation). Even if I get another bearish close and a confirmation by the Macd ( TC ), I will be vigilant around that 1.5960 which has now been both Resistance and more recently Support.

Yvon

What do you reckon ?

The rhythm is fulfilled, the HS projection is not. -My guess is there is still a possibility there for the market to meet the 244 pips down from the breakout point... will see…

Good you are back buddy

thank you too.( for your chart above and comments)


What Is IMHO?


I should show you an example in near future what I mean by seeing HS combine with 4hrs Mac Strategy….being in harmony…

Yvon
  • #26,152
  • Sep 25, 2013 4:07am Sep 25, 2013 4:07am
Hi Yvon,
What Is IMHO? = In My Humble Opinion

I should show you an example in near future what I mean by seeing HS combine with 4hrs Mac Strategy….being in harmony… Yes please. look forward to the lesson when you have time.
  • #26,153
  • Sep 25, 2013 4:43am Sep 25, 2013 4:43am
New Trades Tonite before bedtime

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I am off now so will report back in the AM. I realise there is some Red News in USA a bit later. Not really a news fan so trusting in my signal that all will be well.
GoodNite from NZ -

PS: Don't forget to cheer for the Kiwis tomorrow when they take on the mighty Oracle in the final of the Americas Cup Yacht Racing.
  • #26,154
  • Sep 30, 2013 11:04am Sep 30, 2013 11:04am
Quoting trademin
Hi, back from summer, went into a Trade:GBPUSD short. I took it late. definitely a negative divergence on right shoulder, RT. targets are as usual. Except a possible support (on a daily chart) around 1.5725; which is Fib 61.8%. ---Again, as I mentioned earlier: Phillip Nel talked about Head and Shoulders formation. Surely that each top are RT. Recognising in this case the fact that the last shoulder (right) doesn't represent the "effort" done by the price itself, imply a possible (hidden) weakness in momentum.- what I like the most is when there...
GBPUSD-closed position.lost 80 pips.

I had the opportunity to cover some lost by taking long positions. but still not covering all. first time being in a trade that long… will be the last also. No TC came as expected
Yvon
  • #26,155
  • Sep 30, 2013 4:47pm Sep 30, 2013 4:47pm
Quoting trademin
{quote} GBPUSD-closed position.lost 80 pips. I had the opportunity to cover some lost by taking long positions. but still not covering all. first time being in a trade that long… will be the last also. No TC came as expected
Good Morning Yvon,
Just a question for our members - using the GU chart and considering the unsettled situation with the US Congress today, is it possible that we could see higher highs here. I am not a news follower generally but it sounds like there may be some discomfort to follow- especially if staff are sent home without pay etc. This might not just apply to the Pound but could be similar for say the Aud & Nzd. Not sure about the Euro ??
There is a heap of Red News this week so unless I get a really great signal, I will be happy to continue my study & practice and let the Market reveal itself.

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  • #26,156
  • Edited Oct 1, 2013 5:58am Sep 30, 2013 6:16pm | Edited Oct 1, 2013 5:58am
Quoting binnie
{quote} Good Morning Yvon, Just a question for our members - using the GU chart and considering the unsettled situation with the US Congress today, is it possible that we could see higher highs here. I am not a news follower generally but it sounds like there may be some discomfort to follow- especially if staff are sent home without pay etc. This might not just apply to the Pound but could be similar for say the Aud & Nzd. Not sure about the Euro ?? There is a heap of Red News this week so unless I get a really great signal, I will be happy to...

hi Binnie,

The question is a good one but the answer belongs to fundamental. The 4hrs macd strategy belongs to technical.

it is an uncertainty for sure. The market could get volatile.-My guess is that since the usd being used as main trading exchange (ex: oil!) every country in the world could be affected.

one way to minimize the effect would probably be by using other currencies than the usd.


example: gbp/ cad, cad/chf, etc .---but again since chf could be used as a refuge, one could probably expect that this currency would create demand…but the best is to wait, to sit on both hands…but are we wise, smart enough to do that? and here, if you don't mind, I will use your own words: "
let the Market reveal itself."

speaking fundamental:

the cad is very sensitive to the usd since trades between them is very important to both countries, aren't they close to each other? then cad could get affected too.

so having an open "eye" in gbpcad or eurcad or cadchf would be interesting to watch


by curiuosity: (22:44hrs) 23:02
in gbpcad up 43 pips +77 pips I would certainly move my SL up to 1.670, since price is getting far from the 8ema...why not?(on TC +40 pips there too)
eurcad up 28 pips 23pips (yes on a RB there !)

cad chf down 10 pips 15 pips (maybe no change for now. But what about "after" midnignt? edit: some 30 pips could certainly be done on the TC there.

and why not a try on euraud by buying (on the 1 hr chart) on the last candle before midnight to get 32pips or so) and then selling after midnight ( since no resolution on usd) in order to get some 70 pips or so right down to the 89sma.

or you could get burnt with eursek by 75 pips or so. it could happens. but in total you could get some +100 pips or so which is not bad.I could have been lucky
Yvon
  • #26,157
  • Oct 11, 2013 4:21pm Oct 11, 2013 4:21pm
Wow - what a slack period we are in. Hope all this "NEWS" from around the world settles soon. It sure is hard sitting on the sidelines just watching. I just wanted to share a screenshot to show that the RYTHYM still rules. I had been waiting for the Pound to play my way for a wee while. The zoomed out picture shows how rythym is established. When price breaks down through the 21 from above, it can travel on to the 89 but generally will return to the 21 1st before moving on to the 89.
Changing the bias to below the 89 now gave me the indication that I should look for Shorts from now on. Price itself moved considerably away from the 8ma which in turn was moving a long way from the 21. The Macd presented Divergence ( Higher Low ) while price descended. When Price turned slowly back toward the 21, I then watched for the 21 to act as Resistance . My Plan is fulfilled.
The Zoomed out picture shows the bounce & close back from the 21 & the 8 - a good strong signal. Macd TC was the TRIGGER.

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  • #26,158
  • Oct 11, 2013 4:32pm Oct 11, 2013 4:32pm
On My Watch List - UsdJpy:

Any comments guys - does anyone have an idea we can follow .

Lets keep going team - things will get back to normal soon and then we can enjoy our chats again

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  • #26,159
  • Oct 11, 2013 4:38pm Oct 11, 2013 4:38pm
Hi Yvon

Hope you got back in that Pound drop off. I think you should be rewarded if you are back in. What do you think could be the end target ?
Hows your weekend looking? Saturday am here & sun is shining.
Have a great couple of days buddy.
Brian
  • #26,160
  • Oct 11, 2013 4:45pm Oct 11, 2013 4:45pm
Hi Binnie,

good to hear from you.


I like the way you see the market. And from your comments, evidence shows me that you stick to the rules. I can see the discipline you have to stay out of the market when the fundamental is shaking (the usd!)…well done!- but even then, as you say so well the 4hrs Strategy "still" applies! You are showing a very good attitude. Keep the good work!
Yvon
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