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Davit's Confluence Trading

  • #501
  • Oct 8, 2013 11:19am Oct 8, 2013 11:19am
Quoting bryn077
This is also quite frustrating...missed fills. I know you are still not too big on the Yen...but this was a trade on the UJ that is more your style. Missed the fill of my first buy limit by the spread. {image} {image}

It happened to me on Euro at 36 and I lowered to 3590 and got filled.Sometimes 5-10pips makes a huge difference.
Currently +12pips

Short EU 3590
Limit Short EC 4050
Overall GJ sentiment is Bear.You might be looking at beginning of a new down trend so you might not get filled at 57
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #502
  • Oct 8, 2013 11:34am Oct 8, 2013 11:34am
Byrno
Check out every pair run fibs and mark high confluence zones between 78.6 and 88.6 Fibs.
So far I found EA nice set up coming up may be in few days.AU is beginning to show downward pressure and once that gets rolling I expect EA to get to 1.45
Overall Euro is weak fundamentally so I don't expect huge rallies here.

Short Limit 1.45 EA

Worth reading
German Factory Orders Unexpectedly Fall on Weak Recovery
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #503
  • Oct 8, 2013 11:48am Oct 8, 2013 11:48am
Watching the rally on GA to 38.2 fib and see how that plays out.

Started to read Jesse Livermore
Reminiscences of a Stock Operator 2nd time. Amazing how much more I see in the book now then a year ego.One thing stood up in the book so far when he said.
paraphrasing" Its not Bear market or Bull market but the right market. "
Meaning timing is everything too early you get fked too late miss the train.
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #504
  • Oct 9, 2013 2:07am Oct 9, 2013 2:07am
running trades
GU +305pips and holding (support at 1.60 is critical for bear targets break here opens the flood gates south)
EU +45pips holding from 3590 Target 133
EC +10pips and holding Target 138-37
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #505
  • Oct 9, 2013 1:02pm Oct 9, 2013 1:02pm
On weekly Price is below all important 200EMA (Bankers barometer)
Harmonically pattern is complete and heading to
38.2 at 57
50% not a fib but important psychological level at 1.55 and my TP
618 at 5365

I do anticipate break of 57.Most important fact is we are below 200EMA which according to institutional traders signals direction of trend.
To me Up Trend is solidly dead unless Washington screws up.
I have too many positions even to count and 1 account up 400pips and main account still in red -150pips but getting close to break out in big way.

Update on trades
GU trades running in full steam TP 1.55 once hit it will be over 2k pips nothing is closed
Closed EC trades +60pips
EU running currently in 2positions +160pips so far targeting 1.33
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #506
  • Oct 11, 2013 1:11pm Oct 11, 2013 1:11pm
EU Stopped out +7pips on 1 position
EC Stopped out +7pips

KADC
Have not heard from you.I hope you are doing good.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #507
  • Oct 11, 2013 3:12pm Oct 11, 2013 3:12pm
I've been spending a lot of time away from my computer lately and have been relying on far-too-narrow trailing stops rather than trusting my judgement which has cost me despite my directional bias being correct which is very frustrating. I'm working on finding a comfortable balance until I can settle back into my usual routine.

I believe 1.35, 1.59, and 96.5 were bottoms for EUR/USD, GPB/USD, and JPY/USD respectively and 0.95 was the top for AUD/USD which should consolidate, at least for the time being, between there and 0.93; so generically I am long Euro and Pound provided they remain above those levels, short Yen, and short Aussie below 0.95 until it reaches 0.93.

0.915 was pivotal for USD/CHF and I'm long on the Franc versus US$ long as it remains below that level but I haven't properly examined it (nor the Kiwi or Loonie) against non-US pairs. I don't have any firm conviction about the Kiwi or Loonie versus US$ and it's been far too long since I updated my non-USD charts to give an informed opinion.

Once I get my head back in the right place I'll post some charts and hopefully find some good trading opportunities to share.
You can always make money tomorrow provided you don't lose it today.
  • #508
  • Oct 11, 2013 11:41pm Oct 11, 2013 11:41pm
Quoting KADC
I've been spending a lot of time away from my computer lately and have been relying on far-too-narrow trailing stops rather than trusting my judgement which has cost me despite my directional bias being correct which is very frustrating. I'm working on finding a comfortable balance until I can settle back into my usual routine. I believe 1.35, 1.59, and 96.5 were bottoms for EUR/USD, GPB/USD, and JPY/USD respectively and 0.95 was the top for AUD/USD which should consolidate, at least for the time being, between there and 0.93; so generically I am...

Hi KADC
I closed Frankie at 9040 regretfully.Price was dropping and I had a killer position 8990 and thought better take some profit rather get stopped out again.Price reached 30 and rebounded up in a big way.
Anyway my lesson learned here is set your stop and don't touch it....
I do believe that Cable is heading 1.55 and below.On weekly price is below 200EMA which signals short bias among Banks and Hedge Funds.
Fundamentally Pound is overvalued and much of "good data" is coming up short lately. I anticipate 153 by end of 2013 or even earlier.
Harmonically we are in retrace to 38.2 1st then 50% where my TP is or go lower to 618.
EU economically is not doing good either.Recent German manufacturing is down.I see 131 in few months or earlier.
I agree with you on Aussie at 95.
REgards
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #509
  • Oct 12, 2013 8:31am Oct 12, 2013 8:31am
Quoting Davit
{quote} Hi KADC I closed Frankie at 9040 regretfully.Price was dropping and I had a killer position 8990 and thought better take some profit rather get stopped out again.Price reached 30 and rebounded up in a big way. Anyway my lesson learned here is set your stop and don't touch it.... I do believe that Cable is heading 1.55 and below.On weekly price is below 200EMA which signals short bias among Banks and Hedge Funds. Fundamentally Pound is overvalued and much of "good data" is coming up short lately. I anticipate 153 by end of 2013 or even...

Hey Davit...I have been curious about your swissy position, well...at least you took profit. Got your other posts as well. Seems the EC and EU refuse to drop. I was stopped out to the pip on the EC...and I mean TO THE PIP. Had sell limits near yours around 1405/786 fib confluence. This happened on tues. afternoon ET during low volume hours...the EC surged, it was weird. I am sure you saw it.

Beautiful harmonic on the GU there...good luck with that entire set-up. It's a big one... It's cool to see vision like that.

regarding your post #502 on running fibs and looking for the 786/886 confluence zones. I pretty much do that all the time....my process is fairly streamlined but I am not quite seeing the results I would like to see...haha, I know - join the club right?...I think I am looking at too much info, still. And am probably going to make some adjustments to my limit order trading. Ultimately I am going to omit a piece of information. I want to base the approach primarily on fib levels or the supply/demand indi you see on my charts...Right now its kind of like...'a little bit of everything.' Either way I'll keep elements of your style and trade the edges of the channels...for sure.

My GJ trade turned out well, for 190 pips. Though, unfortunately..only my first buy limit was filled. Missed my 'deeper' buy limit fill by the pip...again ! otherwise it would have been a cool 400 pip swing. see chart.

Also, Davit...i do like your custom fib indi...how can I place that on my charts ? It's better, it pops well on the charts.

Bryno
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  • #510
  • Oct 12, 2013 8:42am Oct 12, 2013 8:42am
Quoting Davit
Watching the rally on GA to 38.2 fib and see how that plays out. Started to read Jesse Livermore Reminiscences of a Stock Operator 2nd time. Amazing how much more I see in the book now then a year ego.One thing stood up in the book so far when he said. paraphrasing" Its not Bear market or Bull market but the right market. " Meaning timing is everything too early you get fked too late miss the train. {image}

I have this pdf...I will read it shortly, thanks. Just need to finish 'trading in the zone.' I actually think it is Mark Douglas that has me thinking about refining my limit order trading. The idea is to reduce the amount of technical market analysis, develop the attitude, define the edge...and trade the hell out of it...

Bryno
  • #511
  • Oct 12, 2013 1:16pm Oct 12, 2013 1:16pm
Quoting bryn077
{quote} Hey Davit...I have been curious about your swissy position, well...at least you took profit. Got your other posts as well. Seems the EC and EU refuse to drop. I was stopped out to the pip on the EC...and I mean TO THE PIP. Had sell limits near yours around 1405/786 fib confluence. This happened on tues. afternoon ET during low volume hours...the EC surged, it was weird. I am sure you saw it. Beautiful harmonic on the GU there...good luck with that entire set-up. It's a big one... It's cool to see vision like that. regarding your post...

Hi Byrno
Trading is best when it matches you simply.Same in art.We take various ideas influences and eventually develop our style.I am evolving as well.
I am reducing my number of trades to best possible set ups but hammer them harder only if 1st order shows positive.Its possible to get 20-30% a month trading 3-5 set ups.I observe that certain lows and peaks present themselves if one is showing patience.Such as GJ short at 1.5990 GU short at 1.6260 EC short at 1.41 etc.
Its slowly starting to sink in that one can squeeze max gain from fewer set ups by multiple entries on same set up.
This is how Jesse Livermore made his millions.He always patiently waited for right set up and when he traded he went in big.Fib ratios are great.I love them.Confluence specially between 78.6 and 88.6 is great.High probability turn around zone.
This is how you use
Fibo independence
Drop it on custom indicator folder
Drop it on the chart.
Draw a trend line from point A-B using meta default TL tool
right click on TL and change name to fib1
you will see TL now showing fibs.Great thing with indi it has lot of levels you can activate or change colors to suit you.

Steps for Fibo independence E is the same but name is fibe1
Attached Image
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 Fibo_Independence E.mq4   12 KB | 211 downloads
File Type: mq4 Fibo_Independence.mq4   13 KB | 217 downloads
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #512
  • Edited 2:00pm Oct 12, 2013 1:29pm | Edited 2:00pm
Quoting bryn077
{quote} I have this pdf...I will read it shortly, thanks. Just need to finish 'trading in the zone.' I actually think it is Mark Douglas that has me thinking about refining my limit order trading. The idea is to reduce the amount of technical market analysis, develop the attitude, define the edge...and trade the hell out of it... Bryno

I specially like when Mark talks about fear of the market comparing to child getting bitten by a dog.I like Mark's honest concept of probabilities.
I have to reread this book again.I find that as my trading gets better I see lot more wisdom in the same books I read previously.
Certain things resonates better with experience.True in everything.I see so much more in Arshile Gorky's work now then I did 20yrs ego.Same time what I valued 20 yrs ego now seems trivial....Beauty of life.
I am very focused and confident now strangely even though I took a beating on GC.I will reach my financial goals in trading!

Congrats on GJ! Great job!
REgards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #513
  • Oct 18, 2013 1:12pm Oct 18, 2013 1:12pm
Building a long term positions on Swissy
5 positions and may add more TP 97 700pip potential.
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #514
  • Oct 20, 2013 10:43am Oct 20, 2013 10:43am
hi sir davit.....sincerely i love ur effort to help out with trade view.......however may i ask u what pattern are will trading on GU weekly...........thanks
  • #515
  • Oct 20, 2013 5:12pm Oct 20, 2013 5:12pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} Hi Byrno Trading is best when it matches you simply.Same in art.We take various ideas influences and eventually develop our style.I am evolving as well. I am reducing my number of trades to best possible set ups but hammer them harder only if 1st order shows positive.Its possible to get 20-30% a month trading 3-5 set ups.I observe that certain lows and peaks present themselves if one is showing patience.Such as GJ short at 1.5990 GU short at 1.6260 EC short at 1.41 etc. Its slowly starting to sink in that one can squeeze max gain from fewer...
Davit...I meant to get back to you earlier to keep the dialogue fresh but I have been trading like hell and anything else that needs to be done sitting in front of the computer is strenuous. In addition to swing trades with limit orders I have been working on intraday trades based on engulfing bars.

Anyhow, yeah...simplicity, development, and influence. I have learned much from you Davit especially in terms of the patience required to swing trade and trade selection. I have settled upon my up-dated 'template.' I am going to put the supply/demand indicator to work and primarily trade within the 78.6/88.6 confluence zone...i will only enter under those levels if the market has provided a gap...similar to my recent GJ trade...below I have posted two charts...one without fibs, and one with fibs...the fibs will basically finalize my entry zones relative to the supply/demand indicator. I did notice your use of the CCI 24...I use the CCI 14 and look for divergence as added confirmation to remain in a trade. These are EG 4H charts.

I have your fib tool now, cool...it is better, more adjustable, like you mentioned. thank you.

As for my intraday trades mentioned above...it is entirely different from what we are doing here...and I think that is why it works. I like the idea of two diversified styles...one intraday, one swing. This way...the best trades can be cherry picked from either approach.

Bryno
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  • #516
  • Oct 20, 2013 6:24pm Oct 20, 2013 6:24pm
Quoting japfx
hi sir davit.....sincerely i love ur effort to help out with trade view.......however may i ask u what pattern are will trading on GU weekly...........thanks

Here is what I did.
Took 25% loss on all my GC trades.Reduced my exposure.Reduced some Cable shorts another 5% loss.
Now I am not as exposed which is good.Since my shorts on GU lot of events went against me that was not in the cards when I took those trades such as Carney Speech,Washington budget fights,debt ceiling fights,Chinese downgrades etc.All these factors contributed to up move to continue.
I am loading my account for expectation that we might be going another 200pips up more or less so preparing myself.Lot of important news coming up on UK this week.
My overall long term outlook is Bearish on GU and EU.Keeping an close eye on Euro as well.
Regards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #517
  • Oct 20, 2013 6:28pm Oct 20, 2013 6:28pm
Quoting bryn077
{quote} Davit...I meant to get back to you earlier to keep the dialogue fresh but I have been trading like hell and anything else that needs to be done sitting in front of the computer is strenuous. In addition to swing trades with limit orders I have been working on intraday trades based on engulfing bars. Anyhow, yeah...simplicity, development, and influence. I have learned much from you Davit especially in terms of the patience required to swing trade and trade selection. I have settled upon my up-dated 'template.' I am going to put the supply/demand...

Bryno
Keep doing what works for you.I am moving more and more towards longer term equity building strategy. Its nice to have 2 strategy slow and fast like you do.
Right now I am more in defensive mode trying to survive the weak dollar.
Regards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #518
  • Oct 20, 2013 6:33pm Oct 20, 2013 6:33pm
I see once again great opportunity to build long term longs on Swissy.
90's or lower does not come often.Basically once every 10-12 months. I have 6 positions and will add more.
Targeting 97 +700pips 700x6positions is 4200 pips.Worth waiting for 3-4 months
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #519
  • Oct 20, 2013 6:40pm Oct 20, 2013 6:40pm
Seeing some real cracks on Euro which is running on very thin ice.Already demonstrations in Italy.
http://rt.com/news/rome-protest-austerity-budget-435/
watch the video its pretty tense
EU Races for Bank-Failure Deal Deadline to Avert Quagmire
worth reading above

Here is my Bearish logic on EU
With 17-27% unemployment,very little growth and German manufacturing down I don't see a long term up potential.
We have a greater probability of developing hard drop trend from 37's to 1.30 in 2-3 months or less.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #520
  • Oct 20, 2013 6:53pm Oct 20, 2013 6:53pm
Quoting Davit
I see once again great opportunity to build long term longs on Swissy. 90's or lower does not come often.Basically once every 10-12 months. I have 6 positions and will add more. Targeting 97 +700pips 700x6positions is 4200 pips.Worth waiting for 3-4 months {image}

How large are your stop losses for daily-timeframe trades? Just wondering because ive never really done those sorts of trades before .
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