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Mastering the Art of Trading

  • #1,061
  • Oct 10, 2013 7:44am Oct 10, 2013 7:44am
Quoting stormtrader
Great thread Ghous! just don't understand why it wont let me subscribe....
err.. not sure there buddy,



g.
I believe . . .
  • #1,062
  • Oct 10, 2013 7:48am Oct 10, 2013 7:48am
Quoting digu
Found a wedge at NZD/CHF {image}
That HHR won't be valid as we had price penetrate it earlier and create a new higher HHR.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: nc.png Size: 53 KB


g.
I believe . . .
  • #1,063
  • Oct 10, 2013 7:50am Oct 10, 2013 7:50am
Quoting asharsaeed
hi Ghous i just want to ask that above in gbp/usd 4h chart (marked circle ) price move down and break the support after that 2 3 bar retouch that spport, is it a confirmation of break out , just for learning purpose, thnx{image}
Generally speaking, that is true. Since price has broken through the support it should be expected to hold as resistance. If it doesn't we, the fake out traders get alert to the situation.

g.
I believe . . .
  • #1,064
  • Oct 10, 2013 7:55am Oct 10, 2013 7:55am
Quoting str8
If I'd have known close above a trend line means traffic isn't a big problem I would have taken this trade last week. There were a lot of good trades last week on 4hr: CAD CHF, AUD NZD, Gold, EUR MXN, maybe USD CHF pin bar (but I wouldn't have traded it). {image}
Well, CAD/CHF would still have been a no go for me off of that bar. I had my eyes on that PPZ just above (refer to chart below). Trend lines breaks don't mean that you can take any kind of horizontal S/R coming in the way totally for granted. It just means that price is more likely to push through them as trend line traders would jump in to add to the muscle. You can use your trend lines for confluence and developing story lines and scripts but I would never get off on a tangent so as to consider the region away from the trend line break as totally vacant.

As you can see in the chart below, S/R from within the wedge will still hold price up quite often, so it's dangerous to neglect them.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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g.
I believe . . .
  • #1,065
  • Oct 10, 2013 12:13pm Oct 10, 2013 12:13pm
One for the watch list.

I am looking for a nice close under the 17.7

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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g.
I believe . . .
  • #1,066
  • Oct 10, 2013 3:08pm Oct 10, 2013 3:08pm
Quoting ghous
One for the watch list. I am looking for a nice close under the 17.7 {image} g.
Come On Ghous! how about a pair that I can actually trade? My broker doesn't even have that pair...lol
  • #1,067
  • Oct 10, 2013 4:00pm Oct 10, 2013 4:00pm
Here is another one
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  • #1,068
  • Oct 10, 2013 8:02pm Oct 10, 2013 8:02pm
I just catch this H&S pattern

Guys want to know about my thoughts...... looking for a close above the BRN 1,6000......
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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80% effort, 20% luck
  • #1,069
  • Edited Oct 11, 2013 12:12am Oct 10, 2013 10:56pm | Edited Oct 11, 2013 12:12am
1. 9th oct - daily fakey
2. 10th oct - price broke out of the trendline and closed above 150 ema and the brn 15000
3. 4 hr chart - price closes above the high of the consolidation box followed by retest of brn 15000
4. MACD divergence on daily chart
5. stop order executed when price broke the high of the 4 hr pinbar
6. fta - price might fill the gap and bounce back south again. I plan to take half profit when price closes the gap and trail the remaining half.

Neytiri
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  • #1,070
  • Oct 11, 2013 12:30am Oct 11, 2013 12:30am
Quoting cemfx
{quote} Come On Ghous! how about a pair that I can actually trade? My broker doesn't even have that pair...lol
lol

I don't have it either.

We can always watch and have fun though, no?

Perhaps even take entries on demo and practice our trade management while at it

g.
I believe . . .
  • #1,071
  • Oct 11, 2013 12:52am Oct 11, 2013 12:52am
Quoting pipslearner1
Here is another one {image}
Hey Pips learner,

Actually the times that I delay my entries are usually the occasions where we are running into a trouble area straight away and price just decides to hold up at them, and then as it hints on breaking out I am then looking to get in. The EUR/MXN I posted above is a good example.

You can see how just under the fake out price is battling it out due to that major trouble area. Now if it breaks out, you're obviously still pretty much at the start of the move. Not only does this boost the potential of your eventual reward on the trade, it also ensures you're not jumping in on the train midway.

Although you are making perfect sense there with those trouble areas (and there's actually the 2.00 BRN too that price has broken out of) just the way price has actually moved its way down quite a bit would make me feel like I am getting off on a tangent here.

This of course in no way means that this would be invalid entry. It only means I wouldn't quite go for it. Like I just said though your thoughts do make a lot of sense. just that delaying an entry for 250 pips is something I would be avoiding.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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g.
I believe . . .
  • #1,072
  • Oct 11, 2013 12:57am Oct 11, 2013 12:57am
Quoting Neytiri
1. 9th oct - daily fakey 2. 10th oct - price broke out of the trendline and closed above 150 ema and the brn 15000 3. 4 hr chart - price closes above the high of the consolidation box followed by retest of brn 15000 4. MACD divergence on daily chart 5. stop order executed when price broke the high of the 4 hr pinbar 6. fta - price might fill the gap and bounce back south again. I plan to take half profit when price closes the gap and trail the remaining half. Neytiri {image} {image}
Hey Neytiri,

Again delaying the entry so far off isn't what I am looking to do. For me it really counts to be able to get as near to the LLS/HHR point as possible.

For example that 4H close above the trend line would be a more appealing entry for me than where you took it as obviously that gets you in at a better price, and its logical because you're essentially using the channel breakout dynamics to add to the story that began off a fake out at a crucial area.

g.
I believe . . .
  • #1,073
  • Oct 11, 2013 2:26am Oct 11, 2013 2:26am
Quoting ghous
{quote} Hey Neytiri, Again delaying the entry so far off isn't what I am looking to do. For me it really counts to be able to get as near to the LLS/HHR point as possible. For example that 4H close above the trend line would be a more appealing entry for me than where you took it as obviously that gets you in at a better price, and its logical because you're essentially using the channel breakout dynamics to add to the story that began off a fake out at a crucial area. g.
Hi Ghous,

I did not take an entry immediately after the fakey pinbar was formed because I was wary of the consolidation box in the left.
I thought that price might just get trapped in that zone or might move down due to previous downward momentum.

So I waited for price to breakout of the channel. Now even after it closes above the trendline in the 4 hr chart, price is still in
the zone defined by the consolidation box. If a long order is placed immediately after price closes above the channel, it is possible that it could just be a false breakout. Price might simply revert and knock out my stop loss (below brn 14000 or below the low of the fakey bar)

So I waited for price to close above the high of the consolidation box. I waited for a retest of the brn 15000 and entered above the high of the pinbar. Even this was confusing to me, because there is a tiny consolidation box to the left and price might simply get trapped in that region.


Neytiri
  • #1,074
  • Oct 11, 2013 4:32am Oct 11, 2013 4:32am
Thanks Ghous.

Can you share with us your observation about the performance of this strategy over the last couple of years you used it? Please give details as much as you can.

Appreciated.
  • #1,075
  • Oct 11, 2013 5:36am Oct 11, 2013 5:36am
Quoting Walad100100
Thanks Ghous. Can you share with us your observation about the performance of this strategy over the last couple of years you used it? Please give details as much as you can. Appreciated.

Performance of somebody else will not help you because its always luck involved also and everybody chooses different setups ;-)
  • #1,076
  • Oct 11, 2013 6:55am Oct 11, 2013 6:55am
Quoting ghous
{quote} Well, CAD/CHF would still have been a no go for me off of that bar. I had my eyes on that PPZ just above (refer to chart below). Trend lines breaks don't mean that you can take any kind of horizontal S/R coming in the way totally for granted. It just means that price is more likely to push through them as trend line traders would jump in to add to the muscle. You can use your trend lines for confluence and developing story lines and scripts but I would never get off on a tangent so as to consider the region away from the trend line break...
Do you think it's not possible to make a profit if you trade trend line break outs?
Last summer I wanted to trade this EUR USD trend line after the BEOB closed below the trend line (I was trading with stop orders then and I didn't lose), do you think it's not good to trade directly into that major swing low?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur_usd.png Size: 65 KB
  • #1,077
  • Oct 11, 2013 12:38pm Oct 11, 2013 12:38pm
Quoting Neytiri
{quote} Hi Ghous, I did not take an entry immediately after the fakey pinbar was formed because I was wary of the consolidation box in the left. I thought that price might just get trapped in that zone or might move down due to previous downward momentum. So I waited for price to breakout of the channel. Now even after it closes above the trendline in the 4 hr chart, price is still in the zone defined by the consolidation box. If a long order is placed immediately after price closes above the channel, it is possible that it could just be a false...
Yes I can see what you did there. What I am saying is, for me the entries can't be that delayed unless they come off of an independent story themselves.

g.
I believe . . .
  • #1,078
  • Oct 11, 2013 12:54pm Oct 11, 2013 12:54pm
Quoting Walad100100
Thanks Ghous. Can you share with us your observation about the performance of this strategy over the last couple of years you used it? Please give details as much as you can. Appreciated.
Hey Walad,

Not sure exactly what you would like to know. My strike rate has been around 60% mark for daily trades, about 40% for trades under the daily. the average number of trades per month is about 6 trades. It has recently took off a little due to the involvement with lower time frames although frankly speaking I think the dailies just out right rock. The results for last 3 months are +12.5%, -1.8%, and +3%.

Generally speaking I am still pretty much sticking to the idea that this method is at its best on the dailies and while it can be used on the lower time frames with considerable success, I think it just lines up well the higher time frames and slightly longer term moves.

hope this gets you the information you wanted.

g.
I believe . . .
  • #1,079
  • Oct 11, 2013 12:55pm Oct 11, 2013 12:55pm
Quoting Oakwoodinc
{quote} Performance of somebody else will not help you because its always luck involved also and everybody chooses different setups ;-)
Yes no one would replicate my results exactly, they'll probably do better or worse. But still you can always go for a general idea of what to expect out of a method

g.
I believe . . .
  • #1,080
  • Oct 11, 2013 1:03pm Oct 11, 2013 1:03pm
Quoting str8
{quote} Do you think it's not possible to make a profit if you trade trend line break outs? Last summer I wanted to trade this EUR USD trend line after the BEOB closed below the trend line (I was trading with stop orders then and I didn't lose), do you think it's not good to trade directly into that major swing low? {image}
I don't mean that you can't trade trend line break outs successfully. I mean, that trend line breakouts and pattern break outs make up for stories in themselves and while you can use them as confluence for your fake out trades, merely delaying trades up to the point that the fake out itself becomes a chapter of the past and you are then playing on a different story line then you need to be at least aware of it. For instance that GBP/SGD short that was being talked about, I wouldn't call it a fake out trade. The reasons pointed out were totally valid but they make up for a different story altogether - 250 pips into the direction that the fake out was pointing at. The fake out itself becomes the confluence and the trigger is recent action (break out of the trouble areas). It needs to be the other way round where the trigger is the fake out and other elements work as confluence. More simply put, I am looking to take entries near my HHR/LLS levels i.e closer to the actual fake out point as opposed to delaying it for a major distance because price is within a wedge/pattern/trend line.

I hope this isn't getting too confusing.

g.
I believe . . .
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