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AUD/USD

  • #67,441
  • Oct 11, 2013 11:48am Oct 11, 2013 11:48am
What about this possible 1-2-3 high pattern formation on H1 tf?

Pay attention longers!
Don't give up
  • #67,442
  • Oct 11, 2013 12:16pm Oct 11, 2013 12:16pm
Quoting geomink
What about this possible 1-2-3 high pattern formation on H1 tf? Pay attention longers!
I am busy paying attention to how the Equity indices and the USD are going up at the same time. Something is broken and until it is fixed or there is a confirmed change in correlations, I am not trusting any charts.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #67,443
  • Oct 11, 2013 12:53pm Oct 11, 2013 12:53pm
It seems this pair is keeping high with several buy on dip, isn't it?

I'm wondering why........
Don't give up
  • #67,444
  • Oct 11, 2013 12:57pm Oct 11, 2013 12:57pm
It seems to be going the other way from UJ (negative correlation) since 2 days now. Btw there is some expected bad numbers tomorrow for China, so it might finally start dropping from Monday.
  • #67,445
  • Oct 11, 2013 12:58pm Oct 11, 2013 12:58pm
Quoting geomink
It seems this pair is keeping high with several buy on dip, isn't it? I'm wondering why........
I guess taper won't happen in this month even not this year, USD is too weak today.
  • #67,446
  • Oct 11, 2013 3:39pm Oct 11, 2013 3:39pm
Hmmmm,
ok, closed out for a win and a loss.

Looks fishy here
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusddaily.png Size: 38 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: audusddaily1.png Size: 40 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: audusddaily4.png Size: 40 KB
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #67,447
  • Oct 11, 2013 10:01pm Oct 11, 2013 10:01pm
China slowing down BIG time,End of shutdown.

BIG Gap down Monday morning.
  • #67,448
  • Oct 11, 2013 11:03pm Oct 11, 2013 11:03pm
Quoting ibram.forex
China slowing down BIG time,End of shutdown. BIG Gap down Monday morning.
I guess you know what you are talking about, assuming you are from Australia )

China balance reported as twice less then expected.

Still have a short targeting to 0.94
  • #67,449
  • Oct 12, 2013 12:31am Oct 12, 2013 12:31am
Why am i not surprisef about china's trade balance??
ho back and read some pf my post about china increasing regulation causing banks need to recapitalise
meaning less money to buy and sell things abroad
china has emphasized how they wanted to turn their economy from export oriented to a donestic led growth, so naturally trade balance gona shrink and its bad news cuz it means less trading activity between australia and china, australia's largest export partner
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #67,450
  • Oct 12, 2013 1:59am Oct 12, 2013 1:59am
Good post FX, Do you see a gap down for the AUS/USD monday??
Make sure that the light at the end of the tunnel is not an on coming train
  • #67,451
  • Oct 12, 2013 2:04am Oct 12, 2013 2:04am
Quoting geomink
What about this possible 1-2-3 high pattern formation on H1 tf? Pay attention longers!

I see there is a 1-2-3 pattern forming on the H1 and D1 looking to the down side.
Make sure that the light at the end of the tunnel is not an on coming train
  • #67,452
  • Oct 12, 2013 2:14am Oct 12, 2013 2:14am
Moderator, when do I become a full member and not a junior member??
Make sure that the light at the end of the tunnel is not an on coming train
  • #67,453
  • Oct 12, 2013 5:37am Oct 12, 2013 5:37am
Exports fell 0.3 percent year-on-year to $185.64 billion last month, while imports increased 7.4 percent to $170.44 billion, the figures said.

http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/...de/845132.html
The true fact is market doesn't care, risk mgt is important.
  • #67,454
  • Oct 12, 2013 6:21am Oct 12, 2013 6:21am
What about Aud/Usd afyer china news?
Up or down?
I read some comments about gap up, others gap down
really confused anout that
thx
Don't give up
  • #67,455
  • Oct 12, 2013 7:03am Oct 12, 2013 7:03am
Quoting Ssm
Exports fell 0.3 percent year-on-year to $185.64 billion last month, while imports increased 7.4 percent to $170.44 billion, the figures said. http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/...de/845132.html
This line in the article is why im bearish on audusd
given that both economies are export lead growth
a drop in china's export and rise in china's import greatly affects china's GDP to the downside
and even china knows it

and when china's gdp growth lowers, australia will be pressured too... Australia will have to come up with other means to boost growth and it will not be growth by balance of payment.
it will have to be growth by reduction of rates to make loans cheaper to increase domestic consumption and investments

"[highlight=rgba(255, 255, 255, 0)]Authorities, however, say weaker growth is in line with their desire to shift the country's economic growth model toward what they see as slower and more sustainable private-led demand rather than previously popular credit-fuelled state-driven investment projects."[/highlight]
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #67,456
  • Oct 12, 2013 7:08am Oct 12, 2013 7:08am
Quoting geomink
What about Aud/Usd afyer china news? Up or down? I read some comments about gap up, others gap down really confused anout that thx
Don't try to predict how news will affect price. That used to work before, but now it doesn't... till it starts to work again.
IMO the best approach is to wait and see what happens and then go with the flow.

As for mid to long term views, I am bearish the Aussie, but I still expect a little more upside (or at least sideways consolidation) before the bearish continuation.

My short term upside targets are 9480, 9520, 9580 and 9618.
On the downside in the short term, it's around 9330/9280 area, but in the longer term I am eyeing below 8800

Exactly how that all plays out is yet to be seen.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #67,457
  • Oct 12, 2013 9:49am Oct 12, 2013 9:49am
Quoting geomink
What about Aud/Usd afyer china news? Up or down? I read some comments about gap up, others gap down really confused anout that thx
O man, you forgot there is sideways as well, not just up or down ...
The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #67,458
  • Oct 13, 2013 2:13am Oct 13, 2013 2:13am
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} This line in the article is why im bearish on audusd given that both economies are export lead growth a drop in china's export and rise in china's import greatly affects china's GDP to the downside and even china knows it and when china's gdp growth lowers, australia will be pressured too... Australia will have to come up with other means to boost growth and it will not be growth by balance of payment. it will have to be growth by reduction of rates to make loans cheaper to increase domestic consumption and investments "Authorities, however,...

With due respect, I see it differently. Export reductions are affected by slowing global demand for consumer goods manufactured in China. Many of the manufacturing businesses in China are moving out to places like Vietnam and Cambodia. This is because labour cost in China are no longer cheap as compared to before. I recently went to China to do a business feasibility study and realised that the cost of living has increased compared to 10 years ago when I was an expat there.


At this moment, Chinese state government are still aggressively buying up lands from local farmers, informal chats with the land officials revealed that they are beefing up on their infrastructure plans and developing more townships. As such I believe that imports will continue to be high as the need for raw materials for infrastruture development will remain large. And where does China gets their raw materials? We know its largely from Australia and New Zealand.


However as to which direction is AudUsd and NzdUsd is heading, it will be much better off for the charts to tell us.
The true fact is market doesn't care, risk mgt is important.
  • #67,459
  • Oct 13, 2013 3:03am Oct 13, 2013 3:03am
if you have not been aware... AUS has its own debt ceiling to deal with

http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politi...013-2vfzz.html
  • #67,460
  • Oct 13, 2013 9:27am Oct 13, 2013 9:27am
Please shed some light on the pair AUD/NZD
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