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Davit's Confluence Trading

  • #481
  • Oct 3, 2013 6:40pm Oct 3, 2013 6:40pm
Quoting Davit
Hi Bryno and KADC I closed all my GC shorts with a loss. 25% of my account.Biggest loss so far in my trading venture. I did keep GU shorts and added some more at 62 area. Pound strength cut me off guard.When and if GU comes down to 1.55 or close to it I will break even and some more.I do think pound has been severely overbought based mostly on Sept unemployment 7.7 down from 7.8 and combine that with Feds not tempering combination was drastic. I do think that Feds will start cutting soon by year end. KADC perhaps you should consider taking your...

Hi Davit...I know, the GC was a nail-biter. You will trade it back. Let's see what what the GU does...could be turning her head. The announcement to not taper was a bit of a surprise for the market eh. Nice call on the double top KADC...by the way.

Bryan
  • #482
  • Oct 3, 2013 6:49pm Oct 3, 2013 6:49pm
Quoting Davit
limit short on EC price struggling to break 3980-90 zone Key fib area for reversal 78.6-88.6 my red box {image}

Davit...I did go in with you on the EC...but entered a bit higher, sell limits ahead of 1405. Holding a bit of drawdown at the moment. Kind of need a crack short. I imagine you are still in ? how are you feeling about the pair ? adding positions ? see chart

4H chart


green pips
Bryan
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ec-h4 sell-01.png Size: 51 KB
  • #483
  • Edited 11:51pm Oct 3, 2013 11:34pm | Edited 11:51pm
Quoting bryn077
{quote} Davit...I did go in with you on the EC...but entered a bit higher, sell limits ahead of 1405. Holding a bit of drawdown at the moment. Kind of need a crack short. I imagine you are still in ? how are you feeling about the pair ? adding positions ? see chart 4H chart green pips Bryan {image}
As you noticed last time price was reasonable high of 4126 so I feel comfortable adding more.Your SL is below previous high.I think above it is safer like 4160
Things may change in greenbacks way once Washington starts operating.
Generally despite of GC set backs I feel good about current set ups.I really like Swissy long at 8990 and love to add more to it.Some of best traders I know at FF are long as well on Swissy.
8960 is key fib 1618 Ext
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #484
  • Oct 4, 2013 11:34am Oct 4, 2013 11:34am
Bryno
Move your stops to protect the profits and let EC trades run until 38 or lower.Much depends on EU.
My swissy trades are smoking hot.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #485
  • Oct 4, 2013 1:06pm Oct 4, 2013 1:06pm
Quoting Davit
Bryno Move your stops to protect the profits and let EC trades run until 38 or lower.Much depends on EU. My swissy trades are smoking hot.

Ah Yeah...great crack short on the EC! already tp'd though...let er run right down, came real quick. I do not have your patience yet, but, am planning to work on my exits... I mean, scaling out and trailing stops. I do see the swissy...Nice !!! Also, is that a fib expansion on your swissy chart above ? post 483. I do like the fib expansion tool but still toying with it to see how it works best.
  • #486
  • Oct 4, 2013 5:26pm Oct 4, 2013 5:26pm
Hi Byrno
After typing 30min I accidentally deleted my post.Starting again...
Its ok taking profits.Over 100pips in 17hrs.Not bad at all.If average scalper loves 10pips a day then you achieved 10days worth of result in 17hrs

If you take early profits you can reenter into the trade in re bounce.Trend Line breaks key fib 38 and 62 are to look for.High confluence zone.
I am attaching a PDF worth reading.Another weapon to your arsenal.It can incorporate what you already doing.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurcad.h4.png Size: 41 KB
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf PDF-TrendCollapse.pdf   7.5 MB | 1,048 downloads
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #487
  • Oct 4, 2013 5:29pm Oct 4, 2013 5:29pm
I drew a fork as well and matches my little red box.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurcad.h4.png Size: 42 KB
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #488
  • Edited 6:15pm Oct 4, 2013 5:50pm | Edited 6:15pm
Quoting bryn077
{quote} Ah Yeah...great crack short on the EC! already tp'd though...let er run right down, came real quick. I do not have your patience yet, but, am planning to work on my exits... I mean, scaling out and trailing stops. I do see the swissy...Nice !!! Also, is that a fib expansion on your swissy chart above ? post 483. I do like the fib expansion tool but still toying with it to see how it works best.

Fib Exp tool correct but I use a custom one.
Draw a TL then go TL properties and change the name to fibe1 and TL becomes a fib.this after you drag the indicator on the chart.Regular fib also included and on my TPL. You type fib1 on TL properties.
I like that its color coded and can be edited and shows price.
or easier just use my template. I have 100EMA and 200EMA on my charts as well.Both key EMA's specially 200 one.It also has ADR and semafor.
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 Fibo_Independence E.mq4   12 KB | 228 downloads
File Type: tpl davit base.tpl   10 KB | 244 downloads
File Type: mq4 Fibo_Independence.mq4   13 KB | 220 downloads
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #489
  • Oct 4, 2013 8:26pm Oct 4, 2013 8:26pm
Quoting Davit
Hi Byrno After typing 30min I accidentally deleted my post.Starting again... Its ok taking profits.Over 100pips in 17hrs.Not bad at all.If average scalper loves 10pips a day then you achieved 10days worth of result in 17hrs If you take early profits you can reenter into the trade in re bounce.Trend Line breaks key fib 38 and 62 are to look for.High confluence zone. I am attaching a PDF worth reading.Another weapon to your arsenal.It can incorporate what you already doing. {image} {image}

Dang...I am sorry the first 30 mins were lost, but I can appreciate it. Ok...let me digest these posts over the weekend, thank you....I am looking at the PDF now, over a beer, and clearly see the significance of the 'outer trend-line' relative to our style...and will look for sells on the rebounce...EU as well. Interesting fundamentals this week....but I guess the fundamentals are always interesting now.


good luck with the swissy and GU....

Bryno
  • #490
  • Edited 3:08pm Oct 6, 2013 2:36pm | Edited 3:08pm
Trying some ideas.
Check this research done on EMA cross over results.Granted it was done on stocks but curious if it is effective on FX.
48.5 EMA cross with 13 but 50RN should be sufficient as well.
Read more about it here

It goes without saying that any cross over can be profitable when used by experienced trader taking account news,momentum,sentiment,trend,fib levels,Round Numbers,Support and Resistance,Trend line breaks etc.
One can see lot goes into a profitable trade then simply taking every cross.
What to me is interesting that slower EMA below 48.5 gets progressively negative which suggest to me due to false crosses.Popular 20's being the worst crosses.
Attached Image
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #491
  • Oct 6, 2013 3:31pm Oct 6, 2013 3:31pm
Quoting Davit
Hi Byrno After typing 30min I accidentally deleted my post.Starting again... Its ok taking profits.Over 100pips in 17hrs.Not bad at all.If average scalper loves 10pips a day then you achieved 10days worth of result in 17hrs If you take early profits you can reenter into the trade in re bounce.Trend Line breaks key fib 38 and 62 are to look for.High confluence zone. I am attaching a PDF worth reading.Another weapon to your arsenal.It can incorporate what you already doing. {image} {image}

ah ha !....heheh. I see the point of the trendline PDF now. Good set-up for re-entry on EC short. Right so...38 fib all good. When you say 62 fib do you mean the 618 ? And where would fibs be taken from when looking for this type of entry ?

Also Davit, when it comes to Rns...how do you visualize them on your charts ? or do you not need to visualize them ? I ask because I never see a grid on your charts.

Bryno

ps...yes those were some quick pips...when she turned down, I surprised at the speed of that collapse. Really glad I held on to that trade.
  • #492
  • Oct 6, 2013 3:37pm Oct 6, 2013 3:37pm
Here is my new template with CCI24 combine with 13/50/200EMA
CCI shows areas in black not to trade and red and white to trade.Arrows are CCI trades.
Will play with this for a week or so in additional of my position building method.Note arrows don't mean they will be automatically acting upon but more of opportunity combine with other confluences should be interesting to explore.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurcad.h1.png Size: 46 KB
Attached File(s)
File Type: tpl cci24.tpl   66 KB | 254 downloads
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #493
  • Oct 6, 2013 4:31pm Oct 6, 2013 4:31pm
Quoting bryn077
{quote} ah ha !....heheh. I see the point of the trendline PDF now. Good set-up for re-entry on EC short. Right so...38 fib all good. When you say 62 fib do you mean the 618 ? And where would fibs be taken from when looking for this type of entry ? Also Davit, when it comes to Rns...how do you visualize them on your charts ? or do you not need to visualize them ? I ask because I never see a grid on your charts. Bryno ps...yes those were some quick pips...when she turned down, I surprised at the speed of that collapse. Really glad I held on to that...

I just look at RN on right chart.I don't like clutter on my charts.Yes re-entry ,bounce is one of the best trades.Usually 1st bounce is the best. Yes 62 is 618 fib.To me fib numbers are zones so price never does exactly at 618 on cue but covers 10-20pips zone then next level.
I like that used SL on EC shorts.Good habit.

Moved my stops EC 3995 and letting them go as far as they can.GU stops at 61 kind of wide but I prefer not stopped out of great positions I have.
Regards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #494
  • Oct 6, 2013 4:55pm Oct 6, 2013 4:55pm
Notice every time CCI goes between 100/-100 and in black color price is consolidating.This should warn you of making a trade.I would wait price to break out of consolidation mode and go above/below 13EMA heading towards/away 50EMA CCi in red or white
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd.h4.png Size: 35 KB
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #495
  • Oct 6, 2013 10:28pm Oct 6, 2013 10:28pm
for bounce entry short on EU I am looking at 38.2fib at 3580zone. Will be watching to see if it breaks North or plunges further down.
Notice how price stopped and bounced off 200EMA floating S/R
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #496
  • Oct 7, 2013 8:15pm Oct 7, 2013 8:15pm
Quoting Davit
{quote} I just look at RN on right chart.I don't like clutter on my charts.Yes re-entry ,bounce is one of the best trades.Usually 1st bounce is the best. Yes 62 is 618 fib.To me fib numbers are zones so price never does exactly at 618 on cue but covers 10-20pips zone then next level. I like that used SL on EC shorts.Good habit. Moved my stops EC 3995 and letting them go as far as they can.GU stops at 61 kind of wide but I prefer not stopped out of great positions I have. Regards
Davit...right, zones only...20/40 pips. Like BWILC. Though for me, its more like 10-20 pips. On my stops, yes, I even want them tighter...I cannot handle drawdown like you . Seems stop placement is one of the hardest aspect of trading...Though, I am reading 'Trading in the Zone,' and gaining much insight into the psychology of trading. It is serving me well...in learning to define and accept all risk, entirely. And move to the next opportunity. Just like a business.

I do want to keep tight stops with good RR...but also need to work on letting them go as far as they can...like you say. I also see the need to give entries space...like on you GU trades. Understood.

Thank you,
Bryno
  • #497
  • Oct 7, 2013 8:38pm Oct 7, 2013 8:38pm
Quoting Davit
for bounce entry short on EU I am looking at 38.2fib at 3580zone. Will be watching to see if it breaks North or plunges further down. Notice how price stopped and bounced off 200EMA floating S/R {image}
Right...actually, I knew where to pull those fibs from...recent swing high down to recent low, kind of a stupid question :nerd:. Just wanted to get the set-up right. I am thinking an ABCD crack to the downside would be ideal...though, also looks like a gartley/bat/butterfly could form and create a double top. Love those harmonics. Here on the EU...looks like your 382 entry was spot on for 35 pips or so then she ran back up...quite a bit of volatilility today, with the Yen pairs as well.

Got your template...cool, sweet fib function there. It is interesting to have a look at how you see charts.

I have a load of pendings on. May not be your style but I like the looks of the GJ. buy limits around 1.55. Nice gap/demand level. see chart.

Bryno
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #498
  • Edited Oct 8, 2013 12:38am Oct 7, 2013 11:20pm | Edited Oct 8, 2013 12:38am
Quoting bryn077
{quote} Right...actually, I knew where to pull those fibs from...recent swing high down to recent low, kind of a stupid question :nerd:. Just wanted to get the set-up right. I am thinking an ABCD crack to the downside would be ideal...though, also looks like a gartley/bat/butterfly could form and create a double top. Love those harmonics. Here on the EU...looks like your 382 entry was spot on for 35 pips or so then she ran back up...quite a bit of volatilility today, with the Yen pairs as well. Got your template...cool, sweet fib function there....

Seems you got a nice set up.Price is right on TL bouncing off 50EMA.You are doing great.No need to rush in things.
Regards
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpjpy.daily.png Size: 34 KB
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #499
  • Oct 8, 2013 8:18am Oct 8, 2013 8:18am
Quoting Davit
{quote} Seems you got a nice set up.Price is right on TL bouncing off 50EMA.You are doing great.No need to rush in things. Regards {image}
Thanks Davit...Though I did not get filled and price ran up to the 200 ma on my 4h chart...and that is what I was looking for, but I missed the train. I do know this was counter trend to the GBP short momentum. So I was in violation of trading against the fundamental trend...I just really like to trade gaps .

Anyhow I have reversed direction now...back short with sell limits near 157.0/382 fib.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #500
  • Oct 8, 2013 8:58am Oct 8, 2013 8:58am
This is also quite frustrating...missed fills. I know you are still not too big on the Yen...but this was a trade on the UJ that is more your style.

Missed the fill of my first buy limit by the spread.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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