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Trading as I know it...

  • #141
  • Oct 6, 2013 10:07pm Oct 6, 2013 10:07pm
Quoting the redlion
I am not going to pretend I am a trading genius here...We all have our ups and downs. Even the big guys lose billions of dollars in the markets. This forum is a like a religious forum. Most people think that everyones beliefs should be respected, we are all equally right...blah blah B/S either what you are doing works or it doesnt, and if it indeed works is it statistically significant or coincidental, much of the Psychology and Disipline can be traced back to the fact that a method of trading is not optimum. You have a lot of knowledge, and you...
That means a lot coming from the pride of the jungle sir thank you. Really I'm just being a baby, and I doubt I will ever quit this. Im a lifer thanks man
Time hides Nothing
  • #142
  • Oct 6, 2013 10:35pm Oct 6, 2013 10:35pm
Hi CindyXXXX, I find this thread quite interesting in a strange sort of way but interesting none the less, thank you for starting it.

To try to hit the proverbial nail on the head, I believe traders who are proficient such as yourself who then suddenly makes one or more big mistakes almost always have a run of wins first. Whether due to luck or just plain good trading which can easily cause an 'I can do no wrong thinking" leading to big - seemingly suicidial - mistakes you speak of. Winning one, more, or several in a row tends to create lackadaisical attitudes into successive trades which brings forth the sins of increased leverages in the way of lot sizes that should/would not normally be traded in a losing streak. I believe to trade successfully one might consider setting up the psychology of each trade as if they just lost the last one no mater how many wins in a row one has just achieved..... no mater what..... it is very important to never let ones self become over confident. Trading above ones risk appetite no mater what account size one has always causes losses.

My best wishes to you - I wish you good trading and continued growth.

TraderJoe
Charts never lie! (everyone else does) ... now where's that FF Adult lounge
  • #143
  • Oct 6, 2013 10:38pm Oct 6, 2013 10:38pm
Quoting sandycarrot
{quote} how about the trade after optimum move thx s.c.
After an optimum move normally one would go flat and wait for the next one to setup.
Charts never lie! (everyone else does) ... now where's that FF Adult lounge
  • #144
  • Oct 6, 2013 10:57pm Oct 6, 2013 10:57pm
Quoting Davit
Hi Cyndy I traded FX 2yrs but sport gambled 5yrs prior of FX. I sort of developed thicker hide to overcome challenges.I firmly believe retail traders biggest edge is flexibility.Flexibility to go from 5min chart entry and hold position to 3months for 2k pips.Lot of pro traders despite of popular myths like fix lots ,fix time frame drill in books are not the norm with pro traders who make money by being flexible with lot sizes and tf. I'll give an example. Unemployment news release is due at 10am Friday.Price is EU 134.90.Based on recent economic...
Hi

Im a Genesis Matrix trader but read this thread out of interest from time to time, mainly because of the nature of the thread which is unusual from a 10v trader (CindyXXXX)
Your comment re Darwin struck a chord w me, and his wisdom is further compounded by the latest valued quotient "A.Q." which is Adversity Quotient.
First we had I.Q. (Intellectual Quotient), then E.Q. (Emotional Quotient) and now we have A.Q.....which is the ability to operate/function in the face of adversity, especially to make decisions. They dont have to be the correct decisions, just decisions. You then need to be able to correct the bad decisions w better decisions.
We are re writing Darwins theorys, but its good to know we are on the right track.

Cheers J
Winning isnt everything but coming second sucks (Charlie Brown)
  • #145
  • Oct 7, 2013 2:39am Oct 7, 2013 2:39am
Quoting jjre65
{quote} Hi Im a Genesis Matrix trader but read this thread out of interest from time to time, mainly because of the nature of the thread which is unusual from a 10v trader (CindyXXXX)
this made Cindy chuckle
Time hides Nothing
  • #146
  • Oct 7, 2013 2:41am Oct 7, 2013 2:41am
Quoting TraderJoe
Hi CindyXXXX, I find this thread quite interesting in a strange sort of way but interesting none the less, thank you for starting it. To try to hit the proverbial nail on the head, I believe traders who are proficient such as yourself who then suddenly makes one or more big mistakes almost always have a run of wins first. Whether due to luck or just plain good trading which can easily cause an 'I can do no wrong thinking" leading to big - seemingly suicidial - mistakes you speak of. Winning one, more, or several in a row tends to create lackadaisical...
Got it in one trader Joe, thanks for your post.

I have since received a PM from a member who I hold in one of the highest regards on this forum who suggested to lower my expectations to 50% win rate.. And position size to allow for 20 straight losses in a row.. Scaling back as things get worse. It was quite a revelation as my mindset has indeed always been on WINNING, and being RIGHT even though I knew that I wouldn't always be, allowing for so many losses never crossed my mind.

In short my expectations of the market and what it will/ could/ should provide me, has always been too high. Bit of a grail seeker at heart I guess.

this trader also told me to stop wasting time on the forum =P

Cheers
Time hides Nothing
  • #147
  • Edited 3:11am Oct 7, 2013 2:59am | Edited 3:11am
Quoting CindyXXXX
{quote} this made Cindy chuckle

Because... I think the main trigger for me starting this thread was after getting a bunch of PM's all of sudden about this that and the other. People were asking my advice on things. To some I gave. Then I had a really poor month in August and thought to myself.. "why the hell are you dishing out advice to these poor people, when you can't trade for shi*t".. So I just made this thread... It was an impulse decision.

If you want to know..

This was one of the PM's


Hi,
I hope you don't mind I contact you from some advice.
I'm not sure how your successful is your trading but it seems to me you have much experience a a good attitude.
you mentioned that you liked trading pullbacks, and i was wondering if my type of trading is similar to yours, and if it can be successful with just some tweaks.
my trading so far has evolved much...I started about 5 years ago out of curiosity...then found myself really liking what i was seeing...and from then on it has become a fun hobby that i would really like to take to the next level. (cost me some money but it's ok...other hobbies are much more expensive)
I'm trying to find consistency and profitability and what have been doing lately is fading the strong a sharp moves when they seem to reach exhaustion.
Is this something you do or have you tried this? From your experience would this work in the long run?
let me shut up now and hopefull

And this was my reply:

sorry for the delayed response I've been away from he forum for a while. Needed a break,

What you've described " fading strong sharp moves when they reach exhaustion" is likely similar to what I do.

In a nutshell I just try and decide weather a support resistance point weather that be a trend line, horizontal line or stop cluster/ barrier level has a good chance of holding or breaking.

If I think it will break I fade the people who think it will hold. If I think it will hold I fade the late money who expect a continuation. And try and pinpoint an entry that gives me a small s/l.

The thing you need to be aware of is the fuel behind a move and whether or not that fuel has been used, or whether it is stored... That's how I like to think of it.

So maybe there is a short sharp spike but if the market is exhausted in the opposite direction to that spike and the move is caused by some strong fundamental data then it may not be so wise to fade it.

Conversely if the market is already exhausted (great example check the AUD/USD at the start of last week), but has a seemingly bullish tone, then it only takes a little push for that move to collapse on itself.

So, thats where the discretion comes into play... It's also useful to look into the future at potential events or news that may either strengthen or lessen your trade. Think in terms of FUEL and price justification.

Another example which may get you thinking... A stop cascade, where a bunch of stop orders make the market fall has just made the price move on nothing more than stop orders being hit and chewing up liquidity.. This misprices the market unless some new news justifies the move.

A stop hunt has the same effect, it moves the value beyond the perceived fundamental value, simply because some powerful market players had nothing better to do than to push the market into a stop level...

If you try and think in terms of REAL moves and FAKE moves and the fuel behind them then that may help you a bit better in deciding whether or not to fade or not. I'm pretty lazy when it comes to following the news, but just being aware of when things are coming out , the effect it had on price, and what's ahead is helpful.

Hopefully some of that gives you some ideas>?

Back it came:

Thank you so much for your reply.

I'm thinking about what you wrote to see how i can put it to good use.
i only look at the EURUSD to simplify things for me. (i believe what works for one currency probably works with all the majors)

How do you decide when price will break or bounce? Or better yet..how do you place your entry and SL in order to protect your capital and have a successful trade?
How do you "see" the fuel to push the price somewhere? (how do you know if there's something in the tank?)

What resonates to me the most are your last examples. (stop cascade/stop hunt)
I don't really look and support or resistance point since i don't know how to trade these. (they can break or hold...unless you can explain to me how you trade them then i'm in the dark) :-)

I just wait for these quick and strong moves and fade them. Normally i wait for confirmation that the move is really over. (making my SL the HH if fading a move up or LL if fading a downward move)

the problems i encounter with this type of trading is when there's no retrace to the move and price consolidates at that level. (when this happens i never know if to get out with a small loss or try to see if the price will move in my favor)

Also, with my current stile of trading i need "strong and quick" moves to fade...in these don't happen then i just sit on my hands.


Sometimes i think there's a better way to trade but i just have not seen it yet. (or somehow have not acted upon it.)
BTW...where are your from?
Thanks,
\

And so I Replied:"

Alright

Do this:

I want you o put GBP/USD on a Daily time frame and draw the most obvious trend line you see

Hopefully you have the two daily lows connected that just got a hit today.

A few simple questions to ask yourself... What built the last up run in the GBP/USD? I would say positive economic data...

what caused the fall back to the trend line? Did that data reverse? No..

But if you're not big on the economic side of things... switch to your hourly time frame and look at the price action in the EURO and USD session hours (the times when economic data is released) and compare the up run (strong bullish candles fueled by strong economic data), to the down run... (Not so convincing data, and multiple lows being taken out resulting in stop cascades and pushing the price below it's fundamental value...

So... When price arrives back at this bullish trend line, will it hold or will it push even lower, despite the fact it's already fallen so far? The risks are the coming data that could unravel the sentiment, but if it gets positive the the market is not only in a low area coming off that trend-line but under priced and so there is your 200 - 300 pip move...

A good entry would have been 1.5450 with confluence off the Daily trendline.. A strong S/R level that I would guess should hold.. Notice also that it didn't move until the GBP news today, so obviously the risk was there as well that something very negative could have pushed it lower.. But hopefully you get the picture.. There's no sure thing, you just need to push the odds as far as you can in your favor until you need a future event to upset you, but of course that future event can also help you..

Risk reward is the point..

And this was the Trend line I was talking about:" (Our Conversation was had on the 28th of August whilst the bounce was in motion)


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusddddaily.png Size: 35 KB



Hopefully that's 10V enough for you..
Time hides Nothing
  • #148
  • Oct 7, 2013 4:00am Oct 7, 2013 4:00am
Quoting CindyXXXX
{quote} Because... I think the main trigger for me starting this thread was after getting a bunch of PM's all of sudden about this that and the other. People were asking my advice on things. To some I gave. Then I had a really poor month in August and thought to myself.. "why the hell are you dishing out advice to these poor people, when you can't trade for shi*t".. So I just made this thread... It was an impulse decision. If you want to know.. This was one of the PM's Hi, I hope you don't mind I contact you from some advice. I'm not sure how...
I found it unusual due to the candid nature of the thread CindyXXXX......................I didnt mean a jot of disrespect.................quite the opposite

J
Winning isnt everything but coming second sucks (Charlie Brown)
  • #149
  • Oct 7, 2013 4:32am Oct 7, 2013 4:32am
Quoting jjre65
{quote} I found it unusual due to the candid nature of the thread CindyXXXX......................I didnt mean a jot of disrespect.................quite the opposite J
Sorry my mistake, me and RJ don't get along so well , it's an Aussie kiwi thing ... all good
Time hides Nothing
  • #150
  • Oct 7, 2013 5:12am Oct 7, 2013 5:12am
Quoting CindyXXXX
{quote} Sorry my mistake, me and RJ don't get along so well , it's an Aussie kiwi thing ... all good
Didnt know you knew each other

Cheers J
Winning isnt everything but coming second sucks (Charlie Brown)
  • #151
  • Oct 7, 2013 5:46am Oct 7, 2013 5:46am
Hi there, your thread was a great read... I find I can relate, although only partially because I probably don't even have half of your time spent in front of live charts (i.e I am a lot less experienced than you seemingly are ). I have a similar mindset when it comes to trading... I feel I don't deserve to win because I haven't been doing it for at least 2,5+ years. However, I found simplicity cures this. As in, the simpler your charts look, the better. It makes you see forex for what it really is, people buying a currency out of greed and then selling it out of fear that it would turn on them at some point, because they deem it too expensive for it to keep going.
  • #152
  • Oct 7, 2013 5:58am Oct 7, 2013 5:58am
Quoting WDays
Hi there, your thread was a great read... I find I can relate, although only partially because I probably don't even have half of your time spent in front of live charts (i.e I am a lot less experienced than you seemingly are ). I have a similar mindset when it comes to trading... I feel I don't deserve to win because I haven't been doing it for at least 2,5+ years. However, I found simplicity cures this. As in, the simpler your charts look, the better. It makes you see forex for what it really is, people buying a currency out of greed and then...

I totally agree, I turned my trading round by simplifying it greatly. I follow 4 pairs but I only trade 1 specific set up. 1 or 2 trades a day max. It helps because you aren't trying to second guess every move in the market-you're just focussing on your one thing. Also find that it helps me read the market a lot better as well as I'm not filling my head trying to analyse all the different SR levels, highs/lows etc as if my set up ain't showing then I ain't playing.
  • #153
  • Oct 7, 2013 6:03am Oct 7, 2013 6:03am
Sorry, I forgot to mention that if you're struggling with the mental side of things then the most amazing resource is out there. Buy 'Trading in the Zone' by Mark Douglas. You'll think that he's some kind of witch as he has perfectly mapped out the trader's mindset, the problems that are encountered and the roadmap to navigate your way out of the mental pitfalls. Really changed my trading style and my results.
  • #154
  • Oct 7, 2013 6:09am Oct 7, 2013 6:09am
Quoting bootsyjam
Sorry, I forgot to mention that if you're struggling with the mental side of things then the most amazing resource is out there. Buy 'Trading in the Zone' by Mark Douglas. You'll think that he's some kind of witch as he has perfectly mapped out the trader's mindset, the problems that are encountered and the roadmap to navigate your way out of the mental pitfalls. Really changed my trading style and my results.
That was the first trading book I ever read mate.. I found it.. erm.. well sold.

I distinctly remember the example of the child and the dog.. Child no fear of dog plays with dog until dog bites child.. Child forever scared of dog.. etc.. hm.. I still have it, maybe I should blow the cob webs off, would be interesting to read now seeing as last time I rad it was over 5 years ago..

(Sorry to anyone over 30)

Inserted Video
Time hides Nothing
  • #155
  • Oct 7, 2013 6:20am Oct 7, 2013 6:20am
Quoting WDays
Hi there, your thread was a great read... I find I can relate, although only partially because I probably don't even have half of your time spent in front of live charts (i.e I am a lot less experienced than you seemingly are ). I have a similar mindset when it comes to trading... I feel I don't deserve to win because I haven't been doing it for at least 2,5+ years. However, I found simplicity cures this. As in, the simpler your charts look, the better. It makes you see forex for what it really is, people buying a currency out of greed and then...
Simplicity is a great thing isn't it. Exactly what I'm doing now, back to basics.. I was way too mentally invested in the markets to make clear judgements. Information overload.. I've since developed another market theory ironically the night before the red lion mentioned it in his post.. I may share this later on after some testing.

I could talk all night about trading, I really do love it even though it has bitten me in the nastiest of ways.. but sorry I really have to disconnect from the forum for a little bit. The reason I like this forum is because it makes me feel like not such a loonie for doing this crazy trading thing. I don't know any other traders in the real world and no one really knows wtf it is I do here. Makes me feel a bit weird at times, having all this stuff in my head. FF is a great out let

My intentions for this thread was stated at the start.. I would show anyone with eyes where I believe the edges are in the market. I have seen all the things I've posted with my own eyes and believe me despite the secinctness of the posts there is an absolute wealth of information in this thread. A lot of this stuff people would not want you to know.. But that's rubbish. The great thing about trading is that only the worthy will survive and succeed. You could put the holy grail in front of 200 eyes someones eyes and still only 10 of those eyes will compute and make it happen. I'm living proof of this =P

Anyway hopefully this thread sparked some ideas, light bulbs whatever.. This was my only goal and we're not done yet.

Bye for now
Time hides Nothing
  • #156
  • Oct 7, 2013 6:23am Oct 7, 2013 6:23am
Quoting CindyXXXX
{quote} I still have it, maybe I should blow the cob webs off, would be interesting to read now seeing as last time I rad it was over 5 years ago..
Hey Cindy,
That's exactly what I did-reread it and it chimed better now than it did when I first read it. The bits where he forces you to take 20 trades mechanically are brilliant...
  • #157
  • Oct 7, 2013 7:39am Oct 7, 2013 7:39am
Trade well, would be awesome to see you come back to FF eventually

Inserted Video
  • #158
  • Oct 7, 2013 2:36pm Oct 7, 2013 2:36pm
Quoting CindyXXXX
{quote} Simplicity is a great thing isn't it.

...

Anyway hopefully this thread sparked some ideas, light bulbs whatever.. This was my only goal and we're not done yet. Bye for now
You're a smarter trader than most, and you know how to make money. At least thats my impressions from being around FF over the years.

The final frontier is really yourself, this is the greatest test for every man. This is the key. Have a look at why this thread was started, and the reactions it generated. What is that showing us about ourselves? We are all imperfect and the learning never stops. There are already many gems of advice from the old hands on this thread alone, I don't need to expand. But I think is worthwhile stating that I took a long break to clean out mentally and spiritually, and to reconnect with the passion. Worked hard to chip at identified weaknesses, etc etc. Used this time to engage in broader reading and thinking about myself and the markets. For anyone reading this who suffered a crushing loss or even equity flatlined for a long time, don't be in a rush to trade. There are so many market related non trading things to do...
Thank you Crucial Point, Bleek, Trizzle, Darkstar
  • #159
  • Oct 9, 2013 4:49am Oct 9, 2013 4:49am
Quoting CindyXXXX
{quote} Got it in one trader Joe, thanks for your post. I have since received a PM from a member who I hold in one of the highest regards on this forum who suggested to lower my expectations to 50% win rate.. And position size to allow for 20 straight losses in a row.. Scaling back as things get worse. It was quite a revelation as my mindset has indeed always been on WINNING, and being RIGHT even though I knew that I wouldn't always be, allowing for so many losses never crossed my mind. In short my expectations of the market and what it will/ could/...

I think we all have a bit of grail seeking in those of us who have worked on cracking the make money trading "code" CindyXXXX. I'm not sure if allowing for 20 losses in a row is necessary for experienced traders but lowering the pressure from a high leveraged, red-line trading plan is mandatory imo for all traders I personally know (including myself). Then again, you may be perfectly comfy trading maxed-out; if you are and this is your style of trading then you might take some of your friends advice and allow for at least some attricion? I know for sure though that anyone who trades on the edge all the time is going to get caught sooner or later. If this is your style then what a shame it would be if you didn't make such a small adjustment necessary to claim your place in successful trading history. I could be wrong and probably am since I really don't know you very well (yet ) but from reading your posts it appears to me you tend to over-intellectualize the trading experience making things that are not that difficult into rocket science sort of tasks. In any case, I'm rooting for you; I feel in my spirit you will persevere and succeed.

Best Regards,
TraderJoe
Charts never lie! (everyone else does) ... now where's that FF Adult lounge
  • #160
  • Oct 9, 2013 6:30am Oct 9, 2013 6:30am
Quoting CindyXXXX
Why I suck: I have a self destructive streak that I can't seem to shake.. I have been known to trade with discipline for 3 months straight only to undo everything in that 3 months with one stupid trade,.. That' is why I suck.. It' important that you know this as I don't claim to be a big shot trader.. Just sharing what I know to be helpful I will expand on my trials and tribulations when the time is more fitting but for now, take what I say with a grain of salt and understand that I failied as a trader. I failed myself
Hey Cindy,

"...discipline for 3 months then ...."

This sounds just like me. All is great and hunky dory then suddenly my trading turns to poop.

I have noticed it may be family/work/body chemistry cycle etc ... whatever the mix but being a human being and risking money does not make me (personally) a great trader. I actually suspecting that many of us are like this and if we continue the way we trade we'll never make a dime ever ... scary if you think of the years you put in.

So rest, don't look at any charts, kiss you love ones, reflect on what means something to you and come back with a vengeance!

Then when you are truly back, do the following

Know that price will travel from supply to demand and vice versa

Trade only daily (yes many will whine and stops will be huge but the exercise here is believing in yourself (which is the main issue) and what you are seeing)

Place limits, stops and targets then walk away and do something else for the day. Discipline yourself to leave the trade alone, think about why you have been losing in the past which is to F about moving stops etc...

Record your wins and losses (a secondary way to help your self esteem)

Sure, it may take you 3-6 months of getting positive result but ask yourself have you been made any progress over your last five years? 3-6-9 months is worth it.

Just remember, once you place your orders GO AND DO SOMETHING ELSE AND DON"T F WITH YOUR ORDERS

Worked for me anyway GL buddy
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