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  • #121
  • Sep 29, 2013 4:58am Sep 29, 2013 4:58am
Quoting hao
{quote} Thanks your sharing, I have several methods of the same characteristics, but my method simpler. my method: determine first leg AB, the AB leg, I see the adjustment level and structure of HH / HL / LH / LL. leg AB has many adjustable and HH / LL structure => weak trend. In contrast, AB pins adjusts weak or no => strong trend. This method is used to do: the power of trends. http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=448892 {image}
I'll check it out hao thanks
Time hides Nothing
  • #122
  • Sep 29, 2013 5:10am Sep 29, 2013 5:10am
OOPS...

Just one more correlative set up to look out for if that's your thing!

The GBP/USD and EUR/USD break out to the up side, but the AUD/USD just trickles up to it's down trend line.. You know what "should" happen next!

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aBSORBTIONINTO TREND.GIF Size: 6 KB


blou.. G/L
Time hides Nothing
  • #123
  • Sep 29, 2013 8:35am Sep 29, 2013 8:35am
Quoting CindyXXXX
The strategy I was working on earlier in excel was attempting to capture the structure of the chart below, because it can be difficult to spot just looking at charts... Excel was no easier mind you! Basically.. the market would take turns becoming the "weakest" pair. In other words say for example the GBP/USD would break a low then hustle back p above, the the AUD/USD would break it's low and do the same thing.. Pull back up above.. Then maybe the GBP/USD again, then the EUR/USD.. What this is, is distribution of USD's.. Whilst giving the impression...

I have been trading 33 pairs for the past while and I have noticed this exact pattern you describe for a while the Aus pairs get hammered then it is the JPY then it is the NZD etc... They seem to finish a cycle then move to the next currency. I have no idea how to predict which one is next I can only sense when they are in one cycle on a currency.



Reminds me of a good quote I saw the other day



"Everything that happens on the markets is by design, but rarely conscious design. It's more like the outcome of a game in which the rules are ever changing, but not everyone is aware of the latest changes."

  • #124
  • Sep 29, 2013 9:34am Sep 29, 2013 9:34am
Quoting Chubbly
{quote} I have been trading 33 pairs for the past while and I have noticed this exact pattern you describe for a while the Aus pairs get hammered then it is the JPY then it is the NZD etc... They seem to finish a cycle then move to the next currency. I have no idea how to predict which one is next I can only sense when they are in one cycle on a currency. Reminds me of a good quote I saw the other day "Everything that happens on the markets is by design, but rarely conscious design. It's more like the outcome of a game in which the rules are ever...
Of all the things I've posted in this thread, that is the one I want to get down the most.. It's the most reliable set up i know of, but the hardest to spot ironically (if that sentence even makes sense!)... I've had it in the back of my mind for a long time but trading it is difficult because of the visual constraints.

We are forced to see the market in the same way... Time frames and price data... I often feel like I need to develop my own charts to do a lot of the things I want to do. Interesting quote too.
Time hides Nothing
  • #125
  • Sep 29, 2013 10:19am Sep 29, 2013 10:19am
The reason why I have been able to see these trends is that I trade a Martingale-ish type strategy across the 33 major pairs (I don't advocate this for beginners) I trade over relatively large time frames so I filter out intraday noise. So what I see is as certain currencies start to bubble up and move up the levels in the Martingale but it is always one currency at a time. It then retraces part way down and the Martingale finishes and they move on to the next currency. The time frames and severity are always changing but they always seem to go after one currency at a time.

I have thought about how someone could do a sort of 3D graph displaying almost in a spider web type fashion showing how all the major pairs are related then showing that if a certain pair drops drastically how that effects at the other pairs directly related to it.

The closest I have seen is this link. Oanda has a Currency Correlation table

http://fxtrade.oanda.ca/analysis/currency-correlation

What we need is a way of displaying this in realtime showing a big move in one pair so you can deduce what the moves in the related pairs will do because it is difficult to see the trend looking at 30 charts. Also you need to be looking at the right time frames to see the correlation, it always changes.
  • #126
  • Sep 29, 2013 10:53am Sep 29, 2013 10:53am
Hi Cyndy
I traded FX 2yrs but sport gambled 5yrs prior of FX.
I sort of developed thicker hide to overcome challenges.I firmly believe retail traders biggest edge is flexibility.Flexibility to go from 5min chart entry and hold position to 3months for 2k pips.Lot of pro traders despite of popular myths like fix lots ,fix time frame drill in books are not the norm with pro traders who make money by being flexible with lot sizes and tf.
I'll give an example.
Unemployment news release is due at 10am Friday.Price is EU 134.90.Based on recent economic news you sort of anticipate bad data to come out but there is a good chance you'll get triggered prior of release.You set Short limit at 135.50. Price before release spikes triggers your limit and once data comes out and is negative then you are in profit at great number.
Example of 10min to 1hr trade.Now pro trader will lock in at least 30pips profit and let this run another 100pips and continuously move stops to protect the profits.
What started as news trade of short TF now is becoming swing trade that could become position for next 3months.Problem I see lot of traders when they fix themselves into boxes "scalper" "day trader"etc
Same way with lot size and risk.Some trades are worth .50 lot and some worth 2lots.Fact is not all trades should be priced the same.Same way SL.Depends on situation.In short pro trader like a good hunter always adjusts to ever changing environment.
Darwin said its not the smartest who survive but the ones who adapt to change.This goes against "discipline" because most traders think "discipline" in terms of being inflexible therefore discipline becomes a hindrance.Perhaps one is "disciplined" himself into losing system and continues hammering flawed trades after flawed trades thinking he must stick to his flawed trading rules.
True discipline is to know when not to be a square in ever changing environment.Its strange that its like Zen to me.
My best advise is to shift thinking to longer TF like weeks. Take 3-4 trades a month!Usually one can see a extreme oversold or overbought levels when pair is likely to turn around.Its not picking tops or bottoms but greater probability you catch beginning of a great move.
I also think lot of books hammer "don't pick tops and bottoms" which to me is nonsense because huge pool of limit buys and sells by MM are waiting prickly at those levels and these levels usually occur 2-3 times a month.
Anyway I think you will be fine.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #127
  • Sep 29, 2013 11:05am Sep 29, 2013 11:05am
To continiue
About Tops and Bottoms in concrete example.
NU went 77 and its obvious lot of institutional orders were waiting at this level and price had greater probability to turn around and if stayed in trade easy 500pip up.Now one can say easier to say after the fact.True but price turning around at 77 is greater probability then price turning up at 83
I can go even further and say one can even add to "losing" position at 77 and continue buying down on every 100pips.This is when one must factor correct lot size vs risk.Anyway just sharing my insights.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: nzdusd.weekly.png Size: 37 KB
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #128
  • Edited Sep 30, 2013 12:01am Sep 29, 2013 11:41pm | Edited Sep 30, 2013 12:01am
Quoting CindyXXXX
Reading the Market You can also use correlations to see where the interest is in individual currencies. Maybe something happens in the market and you have no idea whats going on.. You can start by looking at what pair is causing all the rukus H4 {image}
TOOL ALERT!

This should say "CURRENCY".. not "PAIR".... sorry for any confusion..

Just to expand, each column is a specific currency and all it's counter parts.. If you see one of the columns in "sync" then this is correlation meaning that this specific currency is being traded for whatever reason, usually due to some fundamental reason..

I rushed through this stuff yesterday because there's a lot of different things I wanted to cover but only had a small amount of time. Cudos to the thread makers around here who spend so much time and posts in their threads, it really is quite time consuming. Don't forget that when you're foruming! Hats off to them..
Time hides Nothing
  • #129
  • Sep 29, 2013 11:45pm Sep 29, 2013 11:45pm
Quoting Chubbly
The reason why I have been able to see these trends is that I trade a Martingale-ish type strategy across the 33 major pairs (I don't advocate this for beginners) I trade over relatively large time frames so I filter out intraday noise. So what I see is as certain currencies start to bubble up and move up the levels in the Martingale but it is always one currency at a time. It then retraces part way down and the Martingale finishes and they move on to the next currency. The time frames and severity are always changing but they always seem...
By Friday it's quite exhausting I would imagine.!

What we need is a way of displaying this in realtime showing a big move in one pair so you can deduce what the moves in the related pairs will do because it is difficult to see the trend looking at 30 charts. Also you need to be looking at the right time frames to see the correlation, it always changes

Yep, I feel your pain there, my point exactly.. It's been a conundrum I'm yet to solve personally
Time hides Nothing
  • #130
  • Sep 29, 2013 11:59pm Sep 29, 2013 11:59pm
Quoting Davit
Hi Cyndy I traded FX 2yrs but sport gambled 5yrs prior of FX. I sort of developed thicker hide to overcome challenges.I firmly believe retail traders biggest edge is flexibility.Flexibility to go from 5min chart entry and hold position to 3months for 2k pips.Lot of pro traders despite of popular myths like fix lots ,fix time frame drill in books are not the norm with pro traders who make money by being flexible with lot sizes and tf. I'll give an example. Unemployment news release is due at 10am Friday.Price is EU 134.90.Based on recent economic...

Hey Davit , yes I've heard pro gamblers and Military trained persons are the fastest to adapt to trading. Thanks for your posts lots of good points in there.. I agree about the rigid structure of most systems and mindsets leading to being slow to adapt to change.. 100%

I'm currently using my trading strategy using this kind of structure. As an experienced money manager what would your take be on this?
Time hides Nothing
  • #131
  • Sep 30, 2013 9:17am Sep 30, 2013 9:17am
Quoting CindyXXXX
{quote} TOOL ALERT! This should say "CURRENCY".. not "PAIR".... sorry for any confusion.. Just to expand, each column is a specific currency and all it's counter parts.. If you see one of the columns in "sync" then this is correlation meaning that this specific currency is being traded for whatever reason, usually due to some fundamental reason.. I rushed through this stuff yesterday because there's a lot of different things I wanted to cover but only had a small amount of time. Cudos to the thread makers around here who spend so much time...
I used to have an indicator before that actually shows the correlation and strength/weakness of each currency pair in a chart form in real time. Now I lost it during the many times of file transferring when changing computers and I can't find it anymore. It's quite useful. BUT I find the biggest problem with using correlation to trade is not really figuring out the correct correlation but how much one currency is affected by the other one from the correlation and profit from that in real time. And it doesn't help when that degree of effect changes or even breaks down. And then sometimes a currency that's totally unrelated by another currency all of sudden would get dragged/pushed up by another.

Just like trend, correlation can be your friend but can also be one of your deadliest foe.

Good stuff!!
Make your losses in demo. Earn your profits live.
  • #132
  • Sep 30, 2013 10:54am Sep 30, 2013 10:54am
Quoting CindyXXXX
{quote} By Friday it's quite exhausting I would imagine.! What we need is a way of displaying this in realtime showing a big move in one pair so you can deduce what the moves in the related pairs will do because it is difficult to see the trend looking at 30 charts. Also you need to be looking at the right time frames to see the correlation, it always changes Yep, I feel your pain there, my point exactly.. It's been a conundrum I'm yet to solve personally
i think hanover's recent strength indicator does quite similar to what you guys are looking for here.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=163158
Think : Trade : Live Life
  • #133
  • Sep 30, 2013 10:12pm Sep 30, 2013 10:12pm
Quoting Forexia
{quote} I used to have an indicator before that actually shows the correlation and strength/weakness of each currency pair in a chart form in real time. Now I lost it during the many times of file transferring when changing computers and I can't find it anymore. It's quite useful. BUT I find the biggest problem with using correlation to trade is not really figuring out the correct correlation but how much one currency is affected by the other one from the correlation and profit from that in real time. And it doesn't help when that degree of effect...
Hey Forexia, I can relate to that too!.. No worries about the indicator.. I was just looking briefly at the indicator that Hanover made by the poster above, wow that Hanover is some kind of Wizard... Not really useful for what I was talking about with Chubbly but amazing all the same

thanks stt.
Time hides Nothing
  • #134
  • Oct 1, 2013 12:23pm Oct 1, 2013 12:23pm
Quoting CindyXXXX
{quote} wow that Hanover is some kind of Wizard... Not really useful for what I was talking about with Chubbly but amazing all the same thanks stt.
Yes, I agree. Hanover is a God!!
Make your losses in demo. Earn your profits live.
  • #135
  • Oct 5, 2013 1:43pm Oct 5, 2013 1:43pm
correlation is pretty easy to spot....I know it when I get entry signals in multiple pairs at the same time
wo-yoy! wo-yoy! wo-yoy! wo-yoi! wo-yoy-yoy-yoy!
  • #136
  • Oct 6, 2013 2:52am Oct 6, 2013 2:52am
interesting thread you've got going on , I'll swing by later on to give you my input if such action is welcome, of course.
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #137
  • Oct 6, 2013 4:41am Oct 6, 2013 4:41am
Quoting the redlion
I'll swing by later on if such action is welcome, of course.
Such action is indeed welcome
Time hides Nothing
  • #138
  • Oct 6, 2013 2:48pm Oct 6, 2013 2:48pm
I am not going to pretend I am a trading genius here...We all have our ups and downs. Even the big guys lose billions of dollars in the markets. This forum is a like a religious forum. Most people think that everyones beliefs should be respected, we are all equally right...blah blah B/S

either what you are doing works or it doesnt, and if it indeed works is it statistically significant or coincidental, much of the Psychology and Disipline can be traced back to the fact that a method of trading is not optimum. You have a lot of knowledge, and you are dedicated and honest. Trading is hard, and it doesnt matter how much effort we put into it (for the most part) and it doesnt matter how smart we are.

The fact of the matter is that either we consistently make money or we don't. Keep at it buddy, I believe in you, and once you find a method do not think it successful till you have proper statistical evidence, even then the world changes, we must adapt.

It is in adapting to the environment that species survive, those that do not adapt die off.

I guess my best advise for you is , DO NOT GIVE UP, I look up to you, and I admire you in many ways, YOU CAN do it. I agree with everything you have stated in your posts so far regarding correlations, supply and demand, and so forth.

trading is like chess, emotions don't matter, the possibilities are endless, but if you do not make good moves you lose, do not just move for the sake of it. There is an optimum move in every position, there are sometimes several optimum moves.....find them!!!
AVT INVENIAM VIAM AVT FACIAM
  • #139
  • Oct 6, 2013 7:22pm Oct 6, 2013 7:22pm
Quoting the redlion
There is an optimum move in every position, there are sometimes several optimum moves.....find them!!!
That's the deal.
MT4/MT5 EAs/Indicators/Alerts coder
  • #140
  • Oct 6, 2013 9:29pm Oct 6, 2013 9:29pm
Quoting the redlion
I am not going to pretend I am a trading genius here...We all have our ups and downs. Even the big guys lose billions of dollars in the markets. This forum is a like a religious forum. Most people think that everyones beliefs should be respected, we are all equally right...blah blah B/S either what you are doing works or it doesnt, and if it indeed works is it statistically significant or coincidental, much of the Psychology and Disipline can be traced back to the fact that a method of trading is not optimum. You have a lot of knowledge, and you...
how about the trade after optimum move
thx s.c.
if there is something you should keep secret,simply just save it,, so, just
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