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  • #9,061
  • Oct 4, 2013 1:14pm Oct 4, 2013 1:14pm
Also, a couple of random things...

First, what happened to that dude FX-Ray??? He comes in here, posts one chart without any analysis or explanation, and then disappears. I asked him for an explanation but none was given. Here is the chart he posted. Will this dude please come back and explain what it is he's talking about??? Because he was right on the money with his 156.25 target and I don't get that kind of analysis simply by looking at volumes. Is there something I'm missing? Mpt do ya know? Was that an elliot wave/fib target all along? I doubt he will come back now but I thought I'd ask.

And second, SpikerTrader, your EA you posted here looks pretty darn good! Does it just trade news/announcements or does it trade around the clock? I'm working on an EA too but there are some things I'm struggling with and it'd be nice to have a word with a fellow programmer and GJ trader like myself. Don't be surprised if you receive a PM from me, and I know I will look forward to your insights here in the future.
Please check out my blog at https://from-zero-to-hero . net
  • #9,062
  • Oct 4, 2013 1:20pm Oct 4, 2013 1:20pm
Quoting smash1820
Also, a couple of random things... First, what happened to that dude FX-Ray??? He comes in here, posts one chart without any analysis or explanation, and then disappears. I asked him for an explanation but none was given. Here is the chart he posted. Will this dude please come back and explain what it is he's talking about??? Because he was right on the money with his 156.25 target and I don't get that kind of analysis simply by looking at volumes. Is there something I'm...
I think he fell asleep with his head on the key board and started snoring... will he ever wake up? that's the big Q...
  • #9,063
  • Oct 4, 2013 3:08pm Oct 4, 2013 3:08pm
Yep,,, I snuck in and got a snapshot of him sleeping....he raised his head as the shutter snapped......HERE
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  • #9,064
  • Oct 4, 2013 3:21pm Oct 4, 2013 3:21pm
im using the 156 lvl as key support...if that fails then we could go alot lower....
  • #9,065
  • Oct 4, 2013 4:09pm Oct 4, 2013 4:09pm
Quoting smash1820
{quote} I am sorry to hear about your troubles, aluko. I am in a similar position to you, so I know exactly what you are going through. Just try to stay strong and push through it as I am (sometimes, it can be very, very, very, VERY hard but we must never give up). I think you (and hopefully me too) are almost there. I've been saying for a long time that trading is not about your level of intellect, it is simply a matter of patience, discipline, and conviction... and then actually doing and following your plan without any exceptions. For example,...

hey smash, i am happy you are my friend and really understand how i feel, my car is gone, i was thinking my only problem is patient but now i learnt discipline. Having a car here in Nigeria while earning less than 500$ a month is not a small deal, but am so convinced and now i learnt i need discipline.... to my fellow gj trader expect GJ to move down the more at least 100pips before going up to 158, its going to close September 9 gap, before we can start talking of any serious rise. check my post earlier you will see this closing of gap, i lost because i wasn't discipline enough to wait for the right time to sell. have fun in here and i promise am coming to take back my money as soon i can raise a reasonable capital.... more pips for the house!!!!!
  • #9,066
  • Oct 4, 2013 4:10pm Oct 4, 2013 4:10pm
I'm playing a gap down on UJ.

Short UJ @ 97.45 with quick SL at 97.65. Targeting 96 area.

I'm basing this off of no resolution in US shutdown, upcoming debt ceiling deadline on Oct17, and yen safe haven buying. USD had a strong Friday with no fundamental reason, leading me to believe it is only correctional.

Have a good weekend all!
  • #9,067
  • Edited Oct 5, 2013 5:18pm Oct 4, 2013 11:38pm | Edited Oct 5, 2013 5:18pm
Quoting smash1820
Also, a couple of random things... First, what happened to that dude FX-Ray??? He comes in here, posts one chart without any analysis or explanation, and then disappears. I asked him for an explanation but none was given. Here is the chart he posted. Will this dude please come back and explain what it is he's talking about??? Because he was right on the money with his 156.25 target and I don't get that kind of analysis simply by looking at volumes. Is there something I'm...

Smash,

Assuming this is still a correction in the uptrend, we were looking for a final fairly aggressive move down to somewhere around the 38-50% retracement of the move 150.4~159.9. It's usually at least 38% and not often more than 50.

In fact we were looking for three corrective waves in total - the first to travel back to about the 157 area, the next to move up to around the top and a third to travel, as I said to an area around where we sit. More often than not, those corrective waves can be found to have fibonacci relationships to each other and so far the most recent move has travelled exactly 1.618 times the length of the 1st corrective move - but that may yet change.

The 38.2 was at about 156.3, there was previous resistance at about 156.2 (daily charts - look at the candle bodies and disregard the wicks) and 155.8/ 156 is where we happen to meet a previous rising TL.

The 50 fib comes in at about 155.1 and the 38.2 for the WHOLE move up sits at about 155.2.

There is more daily support about 154.8/9.

-----------------------

I'm also looking for momentum on the Awesome oscillator on the daily to return to zero around here as well to give confidence to a possible move up (it helps if daily and 4hr are also oversold on stochastic oscillators/cci etc). If it dips well below zero, or if price moves below 154.6, then such actions suggest that the uptrend has maybe completed already at 159.9 and this correction will become part of a much larger one. For what it's worth, if it does hold around here and moves up for a final time, the fifth wave of a 5 wave trend sequence will often closely match the length of the first wave. The 1st completed at 154.6 and was 700 pips long .... therefore one could expect a final move up to be much the same (if it doesn't extend and it gets over 159.9) to around .... drum roll ... wait for it .... 162/163.

ASSUMING it doesn't fall below 154.6

-------------------------

I hope that makes sense and/or helps. And I'm sitting here on a sunny hot Saturday afternoon writing this crap. A glass of wine is calling.

Best wishes
  • #9,068
  • Oct 4, 2013 11:40pm Oct 4, 2013 11:40pm
Quoting Gbp/jpy
Yep,,, I snuck in and got a snapshot of him sleeping....he raised his head as the shutter snapped......HERE {image}
Lucky Strike
  • #9,069
  • Oct 5, 2013 11:28pm Oct 5, 2013 11:28pm
Quoting Mpt
Smash, Assuming this is still a correction in the uptrend, we were looking for a final fairly aggressive move down to somewhere around the 38-50% retracement of the move 150.4~159.9. It's usually at least 38% and not often more than 50. In fact we were looking for three corrective waves in total - the first to travel back to about the 157 area, the next to move up to around the top and a third to travel, as I said to an area around where we sit. More often than not, those corrective waves can be found to have fibonacci relationships to each...
Thank you Mpt for the explanation. That's great and it makes a lot of sense. Your post encouraged me to add the fib lines to my chart(s) and I see that they do match up with your analysis, and it also seems like the market does tend to obey these levels, so I've gotta start using them now in my trading... lol.

I do personally think that 154.6 or better will hold, and that GJ will be in store for another "Wave 5" push as you so call it. But of course I don't know for sure, and that is my best guess as of now since I think there is still strength left in the Monthly chart. It'll be interesting to see how this upcoming week starts off and whether it will begin with strength or weakness since almost every time frame below the Daily is currently oversold, imo.

Anyway, thanks for your thorough answer, and it does help. Although I still wish that FX-Ray dude would come back and tell us why and how he came across 156.25 using volume alone... unless I am literally just over-thinking things? I'm not sure, cuz he called out 156.25 when GJ was still above 159, so the selloff or correction was just beginning and the call was made before the 23.6% at around 157.70. So how did he know that price would stop at the 38.2%... because it usually does? And, was he actually basing his analysis on Fibs? Or volume? Or did the high volume confirm the selloff, at which point he switched to the Fibs? I'm just curious because it was a great call and it's not that I didn't see the selloff coming (because I did, I just traded it like crap), it's that I want to know his logic for pointing out the 156.25 level well before anyone else did.
Please check out my blog at https://from-zero-to-hero . net
  • #9,070
  • Oct 6, 2013 5:00am Oct 6, 2013 5:00am
Smash, just bear in mind that when I ( and many others) quote resistance/support levels, all we are doing is simply that. We can do no more.

Should 156 or 154.6 give way, that may prelude a slightly deeper retracement, or the start of something much deeper.

For example, if I told you that there was support at 137/134 you may find that plausible. If I told you that excellent support existed at 115, you would probably laugh it off. We just don't know until it happens. But the problem is that both of these are true. Yet they may never happen.

But, yes, fibs should very much be part of your toolkit.
  • #9,071
  • Oct 6, 2013 9:20am Oct 6, 2013 9:20am
GJ should open monday bearish to flat

i will continue selling tops

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  • #9,072
  • Oct 6, 2013 10:16am Oct 6, 2013 10:16am
You can see the blank area from 156.30 to .80....that's the gap after the demand area of 156.25 got shown two times.....pro gap vs. retailer gap...not a gap but it acts like one....the first one got turned down then the second one goes right through....distribution or demand area....supply up above so we'll go back up there. it's 40% saturated/ absorbed....more down till the run-up. be ready on Sunday for Japan to do radical stuff.
  • #9,073
  • Oct 6, 2013 1:45pm Oct 6, 2013 1:45pm
Hi peeps, this is my first visit here!

That was a nice reversal!

If you use a channel on the two lows for 2009 and 2011 then you can see that nice reversal from the top channel line Twice! Double Top? Short term or long term I'm not so sure.

GBP has had a nice run but a few factors that pointed to a reversal are channel resistance, JPY safe haven due to US Government, and the approaching UK rate due on Thursday.

What next? This could be a short term correction, but be aware that it could turn longer term if the US don't resolve there current budget problem.
So far its a US problem meaning US weakness, if it becomes a global problem then it will mean US strength.

The UK has had some positive data recently but that doesn't mean that our economy is fixed, From where I'm sitting its just optimism and promises.


while the GBP/JPY is in a decline beware just incase they do try and fill those weekend gaps 154 and one near 152.

I will be happy to go long if we get a drop to 152.50 - 153.00 near term. other wise i way just look at some very short term quick trades.

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  • #9,074
  • Oct 6, 2013 4:49pm Oct 6, 2013 4:49pm
Ideally looking to reach 154.85 today and perhaps 154.5 before going long.

Failing to stay at those levels could potentially drop us down to the 152.15 zone eventually and then back at 150.7.

Clearing 156.7 and 158.3 could see 159.7 again and maybe more. Gonna be seeing what these areas do over the next few days...
To live a successful life, we must lose our fear of being wrong
  • #9,075
  • Oct 6, 2013 6:55pm Oct 6, 2013 6:55pm
I am long now from around the open price.
Please check out my blog at https://from-zero-to-hero . net
  • #9,076
  • Oct 6, 2013 9:14pm Oct 6, 2013 9:14pm
As some of you may know, Nikkei 225 has been a great gauge for Yen strength/weakness. (Nikkei drops, Yen rises and vice versa).

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Nikkei 225 has a double top and looks to want to approach the neckline, and has a great chance of reaching it the longer the US shutdown lasts and if the US debt ceiling (Oct17) deadline fails.

Be wary of going long gbpjpy/usdjpy/eurjpy etc. on supports as they may be less likely to hold in current market conditions.

For me I won't be going long until the US troubles start showing signs of resolution.
  • #9,077
  • Oct 6, 2013 10:33pm Oct 6, 2013 10:33pm
Quoting PatienceFx
GJ should open monday bearish to flat i will continue selling tops {image}
as expected bearish note continues

as per daily a deeper drop is expected, as per h4 a slowing down is seen.

so i will continue selling for now
  • #9,078
  • Oct 6, 2013 10:59pm Oct 6, 2013 10:59pm
It's slowing as it TRIES to build a reversal diagonal (bullish wedge) - view 1hr timeframe.

UJ is sticking to its 97.1 base
  • #9,079
  • Oct 6, 2013 11:09pm Oct 6, 2013 11:09pm
Quoting PatienceFx
{quote} as expected bearish note continues as per daily a deeper drop is expected, as per h4 a slowing down is seen. so i will continue selling for now
my short should auto kill if MA goes above 0 liner here ;

summary: when market stops trending down on m30 short position will auto close.

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  • #9,080
  • Edited Oct 7, 2013 12:02am Oct 6, 2013 11:46pm | Edited Oct 7, 2013 12:02am
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