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Mastering the Art of Trading

  • #881
  • Sep 30, 2013 1:13am Sep 30, 2013 1:13am
Quoting ghous
{quote} By the looks of it, you probably missed the consolidation box on the left which is an uneasy thought for me because given that you actually took the trade on the 4H the consolidation box was crystal clear on that TF. In fact price did exactly what it was supposed to do. I am glad that you waited for the close below the 6.6 RN, but I think you missed the fact that the trade was still headed into a lot of traffic. These aren't untradable but very very tricky where you've got to baby sit the trade as it wanders into tight trouble areas. {image}...
Ghous,

Please read the last section of post # 861. I have given an analysis of what could have happened. Please comment on that.

There are many pros and not all the pros will be thinking alike, right? If a section of pros will be dumping huge sell orders, there has to be a section of pros who have the moolah to buy it. Somebody has to loose, right?

Neytiri
  • #882
  • Sep 30, 2013 7:15am Sep 30, 2013 7:15am
Fake out on GBP USD 1hr. The trigger bar would have been the blue candle and take profit at FTA.
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  • #883
  • Sep 30, 2013 7:52am Sep 30, 2013 7:52am
Quoting Neytiri
{quote} Ghous, Please read the last section of post # 861. I have given an analysis of what could have happened. Please comment on that. There are many pros and not all the pros will be thinking alike, right? If a section of pros will be dumping huge sell orders, there has to be a section of pros who have the moolah to buy it. Somebody has to loose, right? Neytiri
Hey Neytiri,

The purpose of creating a fake out isn't always to simply reverse the trend big time. It's really about playing games here. Reversing the whole move is very often the objective, but its not rare to see a fake out play a mere pull back game to push price back into a former S/R zone just to get more fuel for the trend. This is where our trouble areas and trade management come into play. Think about it, if it was about reversals all the time, we would really be just taking and forgetting about trades till we bagged in a shit load of pips.

The fake out on CHF/NOK maybe the result of selling coming in simply to push price back into that prior consolidation box to get more buyers in. Its quite likely that that pro bears sold into the buying at the HHR, but that doesn't go on to suggest that price must reverse big time always. If they lost interest as price made into that prior consolidation box it makes sense for the sell side order flow to lose steam and allow for the buyers to take over.

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So this isn't like one group of pro sellers versus another group of pro buyers but rather both the groups getting their due share.

Hope this makes sense.

g.
I believe . . .
  • #884
  • Sep 30, 2013 7:54am Sep 30, 2013 7:54am
Quoting str8
Fake out on GBP USD 1hr. The trigger bar would have been the blue candle and take profit at FTA. {image}
Ahh Nice!

Did you take this?

I love your identification of that major trouble area where price bounced off.

Trouble areas are despised usually because obviously they can create obstacles for your nicely running trades, but I think they are extremely important, when they are conspicuous, because that just lays out the whole story in front of you like an open book as well as suck all the indecision and confusion out of the trade plan. You know exactly where price is headed.

g.
I believe . . .
  • #885
  • Sep 30, 2013 12:31pm Sep 30, 2013 12:31pm
Hi g!

Day by day i'm digging this OF stuff, and i'm trying to put the pieces together.
Now I just remembered that you were the one, who introduced me the inverted pinbar "syndrome / setup"
I have kept thinking what the hell can be the OF behind it?
Price wants to reverse, thus some buying pressure comes, but the selling pressure is still greater than the buying pressure.
This moving in price creates a liquidity vacuum there which is filled on the next day by the upcoming bullish pressure.

6 months ago I just noted some post of yours and wrote down: "If I see IPB then I might want to reverse my position" - but I tend to think what we actually want to see is that vacuum - that wick getting filled - right? So the reversal could be much more indicated by the IPB and it's filled which rather than a single IPB, right?

Hope this post/question and the pictures make some sense.

If you got some time you might introduce IPBs in a video. Its great stuff.
Stephen
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It's all psychology...
  • #886
  • Sep 30, 2013 3:47pm Sep 30, 2013 3:47pm
Hi Ghous and All, Just find this on USD.SEK daily time frame... it appears to be a fake out... Am I right..? if am right, can I sell if it closes below the resistance line..?
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  • #887
  • Sep 30, 2013 8:49pm Sep 30, 2013 8:49pm
Ghous this is a great thread. I tend to stay away from boards but your thread has actualy encouraged me to join in. I trade and have been trading a similar way for a long time.
I haven't seen much mention about the 'trend' or the impotance of round numbers here (I apologise if it has as I have yet to read the entire thread). I have found that the trend is indeed your friend and 'fakeys' around big round numbers.

The pic below is of a trade i'm still in US/Chf daily. the price broke .9400 RN and pulled back (fakey). price has bounced from this area in it's last 2 previous highs. On entry the trend is heading down, the surge down through .9162 makes the downtrend clear.
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Enter Signature
  • #888
  • Sep 30, 2013 9:09pm Sep 30, 2013 9:09pm
Quoting CaptainLush
Ghous this is a great thread. I tend to stay away from boards but your thread has actualy encouraged me to join in. I trade and have been trading a similar way for a long time. I haven't seen much mention about the 'trend' or the impotance of round numbers here (I apologise if it has as I have yet to read the entire thread). I have found that the trend is indeed your friend and 'fakeys' around big round numbers. The pic below is of a trade i'm still in US/Chf daily. the price broke .9400 RN and pulled back (fakey). price has bounced from this area...
These things are mentioned on page 1 & 3 for a start.
  • #889
  • Sep 30, 2013 9:25pm Sep 30, 2013 9:25pm
I did say i haven't read the thread. I've just been present on the last 5 or so. I only noticed it as something familiar to my trading style.
Enter Signature
  • #890
  • Oct 1, 2013 12:59am Oct 1, 2013 12:59am
Quoting pipslearner1
Hi Ghous and All, Just find this on USD.SEK daily time frame... it appears to be a fake out... Am I right..? if am right, can I sell if it closes below the resistance line..? {image}
Something is not right here,

you have drawn an LLS level, and you should be looking for long opportunities here not short.

Let me know if this is unclear.

g.
I believe . . .
  • #891
  • Oct 1, 2013 1:00am Oct 1, 2013 1:00am
Quoting CaptainLush
Ghous this is a great thread. I tend to stay away from boards but your thread has actualy encouraged me to join in. I trade and have been trading a similar way for a long time. I haven't seen much mention about the 'trend' or the impotance of round numbers here (I apologise if it has as I have yet to read the entire thread). I have found that the trend is indeed your friend and 'fakeys' around big round numbers. The pic below is of a trade i'm still in US/Chf daily. the price broke .9400 RN and pulled back (fakey). price has bounced from this area...
WOW! Great to have you on board!

We are big on round numbers here too. Not sure why anyone trading order flow / PA wouldn't be big on them.

And nice trade.

g.
I believe . . .
  • #892
  • Oct 1, 2013 3:43am Oct 1, 2013 3:43am
Quoting LamerTrader
Hi g! Day by day i'm digging this OF stuff, and i'm trying to put the pieces together. Now I just remembered that you were the one, who introduced me the inverted pinbar "syndrome / setup" I have kept thinking what the hell can be the OF behind it? Price wants to reverse, thus some buying pressure comes, but the selling pressure is still greater than the buying pressure. This moving in price creates a liquidity vacuum there which is filled on the next day by the upcoming bullish pressure. 6 months ago I just noted some post of yours and wrote...
hey Stephen, I'll see if I can get the time today to do a quick video on this.

g.
I believe . . .
  • #893
  • Oct 1, 2013 4:06am Oct 1, 2013 4:06am
EUR/USD 4hour time frame... pls ghous and all, say smthing about it... I appreciate...
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  • #894
  • Oct 1, 2013 4:44am Oct 1, 2013 4:44am
Quoting pipslearner1
EUR/USD 4hour time frame... pls ghous and all, say smthing about it... I appreciate... {image}
That's right - all that blue stuff is your trouble area.
EU has been consolidating in a 150 pip range in the last month... Look at the chart before that huge jump - same there too - just consolidating.
It's a no go for me. (Also bearing in mind that we got this US debt ceiling issue...)

Stephen
It's all psychology...
  • #895
  • Oct 1, 2013 7:46am Oct 1, 2013 7:46am
Quoting LamerTrader
{quote} That's right - all that blue stuff is your trouble area. EU has been consolidating in a 150 pip range in the last month... Look at the chart before that huge jump - same there too - just consolidating. It's a no go for me. (Also bearing in mind that we got this US debt ceiling issue...) Stephen
Hi Steve.. thanks alot, much appreciation.
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  • #896
  • Oct 1, 2013 8:05am Oct 1, 2013 8:05am
Quoting pipslearner1
{quote} Hi Steve.. thanks alot, much appreciation. {image}
Yeah, something like that. Although I wouldn't be eager to buy right on the breakout. You see many times, that you break out with a huge bullish bar, and on the next day you pull back with a same-sized bearish bar.

IMHO you can do here 2 things:

a) Wait (given the circumstances of the USD i wouldn't be eager to trade B or C grade setups now...). If you trade on the Daily to the 1H the best possible solution would be to wait for a nice breakout and then wait until price trickles back and touches the former support. (Rounded Retest pattern) - If you want to learn more about it visit Tom's "Fail Better" thread. But as it is on the Daily i wouldn't trade it short with a SL of that wick... I remember cause I always pointed out such setups to Ghous and said - "you see - i could have made money!!!" - but dont forget what our goals are - find high probability, low risk setups... This short is none of them...

b) Wait til price goes back into the consolidation area and try to make intraday trades - although I wouldn't recommend it - intraday trading is another world...

Hope this makes some sense
Stephen
It's all psychology...
  • #897
  • Oct 1, 2013 8:31am Oct 1, 2013 8:31am
Hi Everybody,

USDCHF

A fakeout bar might form at today's close.

Neytiri
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  • #898
  • Oct 1, 2013 8:42am Oct 1, 2013 8:42am
Quoting Neytiri
Hi Everybody, USDCHF A fakeout bar might form at today's close. Neytiri {image}
If the fakeybar is confirmed on the daily, I will wait for price to close above 0.9068 on the 4 hr chart and then go long.

Neytiri
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  • #899
  • Oct 1, 2013 8:47am Oct 1, 2013 8:47am
Quoting Neytiri
{quote} If the fakeybar is confirmed on the daily, I will wait for price to close above 0.9068 on the 4 hr chart and then go long. Neytiri {image}

I was just about to post this chart and you beat me to it. If it does close like this then it would have rejected BRN .90 as well. Ghous, thoughts on possibly taking this trade if it setups correctly?
  • #900
  • Oct 1, 2013 9:02am Oct 1, 2013 9:02am
Quoting LamerTrader
{quote} Yeah, something like that. Although I wouldn't be eager to buy right on the breakout. You see many times, that you break out with a huge bullish bar, and on the next day you pull back with a same-sized bearish bar. IMHO you can do here 2 things: a) Wait (given the circumstances of the USD i wouldn't be eager to trade B or C grade setups now...). If you trade on the Daily to the 1H the best possible solution would be to wait for a nice breakout and then wait until price trickles back and touches the former support. (Rounded Retest pattern)...
Lots and much sense steve... thanks alot, U just clearify wht I want to knw.... much appreciation
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