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AUD/USD

  • #66,821
  • Sep 30, 2013 11:53pm Sep 30, 2013 11:53pm
Quoting SpartanTrade
were people honestly thinking rate was possibly going down and a no change is hawkish. Im sure the RBA minutes will as usual be somewhat dovish. 9370 is an area to be careful and see what price does.
"The easing in monetary policy since late 2011 has supported interest-sensitive spending and asset values. The full effects of these decisions are still coming through, and will be for a while yet. The pace of borrowing has remained relatively subdued to date, though recently there have been signs of increased demand for finance by households. There is also continuing evidence of a shift in savers' behaviour in response to declining returns on low-risk assets.
The Australian dollar rose recently, but is still about 10 per cent below its level in April. A lower level of the currency than seen at present would assist in rebalancing growth in the economy.
At today's meeting, the Board judged that the setting of monetary policy remained appropriate. The Board will continue to assess the outlook and adjust policy as needed to foster sustainable growth in demand and inflation outcomes consistent with the target."
  • #66,822
  • Sep 30, 2013 11:54pm Sep 30, 2013 11:54pm
i found auddepth chart in my mt4, anyone use it? wonder how significant it is
  • #66,823
  • Sep 30, 2013 11:57pm Sep 30, 2013 11:57pm
I bet a lot of ppl are hype up to long the audusd now lol
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #66,824
  • Oct 1, 2013 12:08am Oct 1, 2013 12:08am
Good Morning !!
Today's S/R levels on MT4 Template

AUDUSD

Other Pairs : http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...37#post6997737
FX is a Bitc*h!, No one keeps me wake all night but FX does!!
  • #66,825
  • Oct 1, 2013 12:18am Oct 1, 2013 12:18am
Quoting mima
{quote} Since you have such big SL why are you confident that AUDUSD will go up any time soon?
AUDUSD: Here is your answer. It was not short term trade. between yellow and red horizontal line I almost got +30 pips so I again entered buy trade @green line. But after that it was suddenly starting falling, It got -40 pips but SL was so far away yet. I got confused and closed my order even the SL was not triggered. And now see the AUDUSD bounced back where I wanted to close trade and take profit.

GBPUSD : I also bought GBPUSD but covered it @ +2pips and now It is also bounced.

This is what we call correct analysis with stupid patience.
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-milkeyway
  • #66,826
  • Oct 1, 2013 12:23am Oct 1, 2013 12:23am
Quoting fxtyrant
I bet a lot of ppl are hype up to long the audusd now lol
From a purely tech perspective, I wouldn't be surprised.

guess it depends on how long it takes the White House clowns to get their shite together I suppose
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Come with me if you want to live....
  • #66,827
  • Oct 1, 2013 12:24am Oct 1, 2013 12:24am
Quoting Ill-b-back
{quote} From a purely tech perspective, I wouldn't be surprised. guess it depends on how long it takes the White House clowns to get their shite together I suppose {image} {image}
it broke that trend line pressure, price moving to positive territory above 50sma/macd, looking for good levels of R T S to bounce higher.
  • #66,828
  • Oct 1, 2013 12:32am Oct 1, 2013 12:32am
won't there be a pullback soon... *twiddle fingers*
  • #66,829
  • Oct 1, 2013 12:43am Oct 1, 2013 12:43am
If it comes back around 9360 I'll look for re-buy it (as per my PA conditions)
-milkeyway
  • #66,830
  • Oct 1, 2013 12:45am Oct 1, 2013 12:45am
i just woke up and see my Long @ .9300 closed because my SL @ .9287 gets hit.. fkn hate Stop Loss atm
  • #66,831
  • Oct 1, 2013 12:51am Oct 1, 2013 12:51am
Quoting zOrO2kX
i just woke up and see my Long @ .9300 closed because my SL @ .9287 gets hit.. fkn hate Stop Loss atm
Mine is bad more than you. I bought it @ 9354 (limit of stupidity). Then it started downward. SL was to far @9270. It was even not triggered (and not even yet) and I closed my trade with -40 pips due to lack of patience. Before that I almost got +30 pips so not much loss there.

Your SL needed to below critical support @9270.
Next time, If it comes back around 9360 I'll look for re-buy it (depends on my PA conditions)
-milkeyway
  • #66,832
  • Oct 1, 2013 12:57am Oct 1, 2013 12:57am
Quoting Ill-b-back
{quote} From a purely tech perspective, I wouldn't be surprised. guess it depends on how long it takes the White House clowns to get their shite together I suppose {image} {image}
I'm guessing within this week...
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #66,833
  • Oct 1, 2013 1:02am Oct 1, 2013 1:02am
As per my analysis :
Critical support @yellow line
Soft support @ red lines
Soft resistance @ gray lines
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-milkeyway
  • #66,834
  • Oct 1, 2013 1:03am Oct 1, 2013 1:03am
On the Daily chart price has put in a classic double bottom with a higher low off support. The trend is up.
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FF journal: Peaks and Troffs
  • #66,835
  • Oct 1, 2013 1:31am Oct 1, 2013 1:31am
Im bullish as ever but I agree with fxtyrant that once US funding shit gets sorted there will be a heavy albeit temporary decline realistically 9200 is not out of the short term picture yet
  • #66,836
  • Oct 1, 2013 1:36am Oct 1, 2013 1:36am
Quoting SpartanTrade
Im bullish as ever but I agree with fxtyrant that once US funding shit gets sorted there will be a heavy albeit temporary decline realistically 9200 is not out of the short term picture yet

Fair enough, although I would have expected a decent move against the USD once the deadline was hit. Since there wasn't one I don't know if there will be one the other way once it gets sorted out. I just trade technicals.
FF journal: Peaks and Troffs
  • #66,837
  • Oct 1, 2013 1:39am Oct 1, 2013 1:39am
After today's RBA statement , ANZ have now pushed out their forecast for another 25 bps rate cut ( if at all ) from November to February 2014 .
It wouldn't be a surprise to see all the other major Australian banks follow suit .
Here's what ANZ had to say on the matter ;


RBA: MONETARY POLICY REMAINS APPROPRIATE - ANZ EXPECTS NO FURTHER RATE CUTS BEFORE CHRISTMAS

Today’s Monetary Policy Decision text by the RBA was again almost identical to that released after the August and September Board meetings. Importantly, there was no upgrade to the Bank’s easing bias, which suggests a reduced likelihood of any further reduction in interest rates occurring before Christmas. ANZ has formally pushed its forecast for the final cut in this interest rate easing cycle out to February 2014, but assesses that we are broadly close to the bottom of this official interest rate cycle.
A number of elements in this statement suggest the Bank remains comfortably on hold in the near term:

·There has been an improvement in indicators of household and business sentiment recently, though it is too soon to judge how persistent this will be (implication: wait and see); and

·The easing in monetary policy since late 2011 has supported interest-sensitive spending and asset values. The full effects of these decisions are still coming through and will be for a while yet. There is also continuing evidence of a shift in savers’ behaviour in response to declining returns on low-risk assets (implication: monetary policy is working. The growth outlook would need to change substantially to require a further move in rates in the near-term).

After easing in August, the Board reverted to the standard phrases “the setting of monetary policy remained appropriate” and “the Board will continue to assess the outlook and adjust policy as needed to foster sustainable growth in demand and inflation outcomes consistent with the target” that have often been used when policy is seen to be correct and no near-term adjustment is considered likely. These statements were repeated this month.
The minutes to these board meetings provided some further information: “Given the substantial degree of policy stimulus in place, the Board judged that it was appropriate to retain the current setting of interest rates. Members agreed that the Bank should again neither close off the possibility of reducing rates further nor signal an imminent intention to reduce them. The Board would continue to examine the data over the months ahead to assess whether monetary policy was appropriately configured.” This paragraph indicates a mild but relatively inactive easing bias in the near-term.
Phrases that have typically been used to suggest the possibility of a near-term move in rates in recent times have included reference to “scope to ease” and “policy remains appropriate for the time being”. The absence of these phrases today suggests the minutes to this meeting will again report no imminent move in interest rates is likely at the November meeting. By inference, given the November meeting contains additional information on the CPI and the Bank’s new GDP forecasts, this implies a reduced likelihood for a cut at the December meeting. This suggests no further cut in interest rates is likely before the February Board meeting at the earliest and an increased likelihood that we may already be at the low in the cycle.
ANZ continues to keep one further interest rate cut in its profile (now in February) believing that a continuing rise in the unemployment rate and the substantial drag from weaker mining investment keep open the option that the RBA takes out some further insurance (though it would be preferable if the AUD fell further instead). More broadly, ANZ believes that we are close to the low in the Australian cash rate cycle, given the improving housing sector, better global growth news and accommodative monetary policy. The wind back in mining investment, however, is expected to see Australian interest rates remain at a relatively low level throughout 2014.
  • #66,838
  • Oct 1, 2013 1:47am Oct 1, 2013 1:47am
up over 130 pips from low today. massive move.
  • #66,839
  • Oct 1, 2013 1:52am Oct 1, 2013 1:52am
Quoting Halba
up over 130 pips from low today. massive move.
So was the FOMC, market will fade these fundamental shock moves
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #66,840
  • Oct 1, 2013 1:54am Oct 1, 2013 1:54am
AUD/NZD looks promising
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