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AUD/USD

  • #66,801
  • Sep 30, 2013 5:52pm Sep 30, 2013 5:52pm
The daily did not close above .9335 and imo the downtrend is still intact
the cautious seldom err....C
  • #66,802
  • Sep 30, 2013 6:11pm Sep 30, 2013 6:11pm
Quoting pips29
The daily did not close above .9335 and imo the downtrend is still intact
Sure is
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When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #66,803
  • Sep 30, 2013 6:25pm Sep 30, 2013 6:25pm
feeling a bit anxious as I have never experienced the impact of a shutdown and do not know the effect it has on currencies. Can anyone who has this experience tell us what to expect
the cautious seldom err....C
  • #66,804
  • Sep 30, 2013 6:33pm Sep 30, 2013 6:33pm
My two crystal balls predict that at shutdown some prices will go up and some will go down ...
The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #66,805
  • Sep 30, 2013 6:40pm Sep 30, 2013 6:40pm
While outlined in different occasions that Australia is not facing any housing bubble, it may not want to face heightened risk of heating up the property market any further, with RBA assistant governor Malcolm Edey recently saying "in the past 10 years housing prices had risen similar to or on average less than the growth of household income."

"Markets will most likely focus on AUD rhetoric by the RBA as well as the prospects of another cut before year-end."

"According to trustworthy bank sources, an Australian-based bank has reported very good corporation demand / Asian buyers below the 9300 level in AUD/USD on the recent decline."

"The market assumption is that the RBA has moved away from an overall dovish bias and appears comfortable with it, which means that if there is any intensification on the tone towards 1-a higher Aussie, 2-unemployment (very soft on Aug), 3-property prices, the Aussie may face downside risks
  • #66,806
  • Edited 8:49pm Sep 30, 2013 7:01pm | Edited 8:49pm
This might be answer to some:

Inserted Video
The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #66,807
  • Sep 30, 2013 8:32pm Sep 30, 2013 8:32pm
very quiet here today.....
  • #66,808
  • Sep 30, 2013 8:33pm Sep 30, 2013 8:33pm
Quoting SpartanTrade
very quiet here today.....
All busy adding long position
  • #66,809
  • Sep 30, 2013 8:49pm Sep 30, 2013 8:49pm
I'm bullish but it's not the best time to be trading going long unless its just short term on news or big picture longer term. too much going on.

Can someone correct me if i'm wrong. If US funding issue gets resolved will that give strength to USD? That's my understanding
  • #66,810
  • Sep 30, 2013 9:25pm Sep 30, 2013 9:25pm
cash rate soon.....
  • #66,811
  • Sep 30, 2013 9:32pm Sep 30, 2013 9:32pm
i wonder how can a government be shut down

we call em vacation here,....
  • #66,812
  • Sep 30, 2013 9:51pm Sep 30, 2013 9:51pm
Way off topic post but I'm studying for my Series 34 and wondering if anyone could answer this question about calculating rollover. Basically what is the correct formula?

My study manual has this formula: (effective interest rate * contract size * spot price)/365 = rollover

Investopedia has this formula: (effective interest rate * contract size)/(365 * spot price) = rollover


Wondering why the difference in putting the spot price in numerator vs denominator? I know the outcome will be + or - based on the effective interest rate and whether you are long/short so idk why you'd move the spot price.... anyone?
  • #66,813
  • Sep 30, 2013 10:15pm Sep 30, 2013 10:15pm
Quoting pips29
feeling a bit anxious as I have never experienced the impact of a shutdown and do not know the effect it has on currencies. Can anyone who has this experience tell us what to expect
Chill.......nothing will happen................
The More You Learn, The More You Earn.....
  • #66,814
  • Edited 11:04pm Sep 30, 2013 10:53pm | Edited 11:04pm
Quoting edindzeko
Way off topic post but I'm studying for my Series 34 and wondering if anyone could answer this question about calculating rollover. Basically what is the correct formula? My study manual has this formula: (effective interest rate * contract size * spot price)/365 = rollover Investopedia has this formula: (effective interest rate * contract size)/(365 * spot price) = rollover Wondering why the difference in putting the spot price in numerator vs denominator? I know the outcome will be + or - based on the effective interest rate and whether you are...
Either your study manual sucks or it has a typo.
The spot rate always forms part of the denominator in rollover calculations.

Actually, none of the above show the real formula which is...

Lot Size * (rate of quoted & purchased curr – rate of base & borrowed curr) / (365 X spot price)
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #66,815
  • Sep 30, 2013 11:22pm Sep 30, 2013 11:22pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Either your study manual sucks or it has a typo. The spot rate always forms part of the denominator in rollover calculations. Actually, none of the above show the real formula which is... Lot Size * (rate of quoted & purchased curr – rate of base & borrowed curr) / (365 X spot price)
Thanks. By effective interest rate thats what I meant, rate of long currency - rate of short currency.

So yes the study manual sucks, I bought the only 2 I could find and that was the "better" one. Thanks again
  • #66,816
  • Sep 30, 2013 11:33pm Sep 30, 2013 11:33pm
I've gone long on the break of the swing at 1.9355 and short EA
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FF journal: Peaks and Troffs
  • #66,817
  • Sep 30, 2013 11:39pm Sep 30, 2013 11:39pm
Quoting 5percent
{image}
reached estimated target. i think there might be pullback to test some levels of resistance turns support.

every day is a new thing, every moment is a new thing..

aud cash rate - volatility , apparently break yesterday high.


stalling just ahead of level hi 2 : 0.9375 area.

likely to hit near 0.9399 soon.
  • #66,818
  • Sep 30, 2013 11:42pm Sep 30, 2013 11:42pm
were people honestly thinking rate was possibly going down and a no change is hawkish. Im sure the RBA minutes will as usual be somewhat dovish. 9370 is an area to be careful and see what price does.
  • #66,819
  • Sep 30, 2013 11:45pm Sep 30, 2013 11:45pm
Quoting SpartanTrade
were people honestly thinking rate was possibly going down and a no change is hawkish. Im sure the RBA minutes will as usual be somewhat dovish. 9370 is an area to be careful and see what price does.
No.

But in all reality, what has changed? AUD is not moving up on Aussie fundamentals but dollar weakness. I see dollar at 78 by the end of the year.
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #66,820
  • Sep 30, 2013 11:47pm Sep 30, 2013 11:47pm
Quoting SpartanTrade
were people honestly thinking rate was possibly going down and a no change is hawkish. Im sure the RBA minutes will as usual be somewhat dovish. 9370 is an area to be careful and see what price does.
I agree but still see 0.92 my target
just a bump on the road
btw expecting a resolution to come in a day or 2 for the debt limit issue
once resolution passed dollar is gona rally hard like it did back in 2011
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
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