Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno | Page 149 | Forex Factory

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Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno

  • #2,961
  • Sep 30, 2013 9:47am Sep 30, 2013 9:47am
My bad, I forgot to save most recent screenshot. Here is the newest screenshot with adjusted TP.
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  • #2,962
  • Sep 30, 2013 9:51am Sep 30, 2013 9:51am
I have one question.

If I was to trade D1/MN combo, and MN supply is in control, if I short, do I exit at the next weekly demand, if it is closer than Monthly demand, since it is a higher TF ?
  • #2,963
  • Sep 30, 2013 9:57am Sep 30, 2013 9:57am
Quoting Tok
I have one question. If I was to trade D1/MN combo, and MN supply is in control, if I short, do I exit at the next weekly demand, if it is closer than Monthly demand, since it is a higher TF ?
Price tends to travel from zone to zone. Where should you exit? Well, that's up to the trader and to how greedy you are Each situation is different and needs to be analyzed by itself. Minimum 3:1 TP, if you are confident that you have room to opposing area, trail your stop above/below higher timeframe's zones, it's the most logical thing to do.

If you reach an opposing area where you would open an opposing trade, do exit your trade before that area is reached, that's common sense! Use your common sense and logic, don't be greeedy and all will be fine. That takes alot of time to practice and a very strict trading plan.

Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #2,964
  • Sep 30, 2013 9:59am Sep 30, 2013 9:59am
Quoting panoramia
{quote} Price tends to travel from zone to zone. Where should you exit? Well, that's up to the trader and to how greedy you are Each situation is different and needs to be analyzed by itself. Minimum 3:1 TP, if you are confident that you have room to opposing area, trail your stop above/below higher timeframe's zones, it's the most logical thing to do. If you reach an opposing area where you would open an opposing trade, do exit your trade before that area is reached, that's common sense! Use your common sense and logic, don't be greeedy and...
Ok thank you for your help.
  • #2,965
  • Sep 30, 2013 10:02am Sep 30, 2013 10:02am
Quoting panoramia
{quote} Price tends to travel from zone to zone. Where should you exit? Well, that's up to the trader and to how greedy you are Each situation is different and needs to be analyzed by itself. Minimum 3:1 TP, if you are confident that you have room to opposing area, trail your stop above/below higher timeframe's zones, it's the most logical thing to do. If you reach an opposing area where you would open an opposing trade, do exit your trade before that area is reached, that's common sense! Use your common sense and logic, don't be greeedy and...
One last thing.

I remember reading that you said higher timeframe = higher reliability.

Do you think its wise to assume, that the higher TF combo we trade, the better the win rate?

For instance, D1/MN or WK/MN combo would have much better win rate than lower TFs?
  • #2,966
  • Sep 30, 2013 10:08am Sep 30, 2013 10:08am
good afternoon traedorians peace and pips be upon all of u
I 've just began to learn how to draw supply and demand area,so i am asking you if the supply area drawn in the chart below is correct or not
thank you
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better be not enough salt than too much salt
  • #2,967
  • Sep 30, 2013 10:29am Sep 30, 2013 10:29am
Look where the Dollar Index is bouncing off now, fresh and original D1 demand.

Shorts on the majors could work, even more if last week low (red beads are taken out). It happens that the majors are at higher timeframe supply areas, this could provide some nice short opportunities, watch that!

Alfonso
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Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #2,968
  • Edited 12:26pm Sep 30, 2013 11:09am | Edited 12:26pm
Quoting markot
i plan to take this short trade on AUD/JPY. It in line with H4 TL, and previous Daily TL is solidly broken.

Hi Markot, It seems to me you are too low in the weekly and daily curve to short that pair. Is there something I am missing with the Daily CP counter trend to your short entry? If I understand the rules that is still daily demand in control. I am still having a bit of trouble with the HTF CP's so any guidance would be helpful.
Thanks, Greg
Edit: I see Alfonso, in a few posts later, answered this by trading this CP zone as S&F. I missed this discussion last week. Sorry
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  • #2,969
  • Sep 30, 2013 11:19am Sep 30, 2013 11:19am
Quoting panoramia
Look where the Dollar Index is bouncing off now, fresh and original D1 demand. Shorts on the majors could work, even more if last week low (red beads are taken out). It happens that the majors are at higher timeframe supply areas, this could provide some nice short opportunities, watch that! Alfonso {image}
Hey Alfonso. Question about your chart. The trend of the US Index is down, so why is a Speedbump a valid Demand level? Aren't speebumps only usable during the trend?
Or is this just an opportunity to find trades on the majors?
Greatness exists in all of us.
  • #2,970
  • Sep 30, 2013 11:31am Sep 30, 2013 11:31am
Quoting Nvrgvup
{quote} Hi Markot, It seems to me you are too low in the weekly and daily curve to short that pair. Is there something I am missing with the Daily CP counter trend to your short entry? If I understand the rules that is still daily demand in control. I am still having a bit of trouble with the HTF CP's so any guidance would be helpful. Thanks, Greg {image}

Could be, but then, that move on H1 removed 3 week lows. The risk is small , and potential reward quite big ... worthy to try
  • #2,971
  • Sep 30, 2013 3:35pm Sep 30, 2013 3:35pm
Hi Alfonso. Just wanted to let u know what a great job you are doing. You remind me of Jose Blasco. As an OTA grad from many years ago I appreciate your teaching methodology. Even with all the pieces of the puzzle laid out in front of you, emotion will be the fog of war for many you help, but what a great thread you have created. Im with you all the way buddy. Keep up the good work. Great youtube channel too.
  • #2,972
  • Sep 30, 2013 3:42pm Sep 30, 2013 3:42pm
Quoting UpComerFX
{quote} Hey Alfonso. Question about your chart. The trend of the US Index is down, so why is a Speedbump a valid Demand level? Aren't speebumps only usable during the trend? Or is this just an opportunity to find trades on the majors?
Speedbumps are not good countertrend, that's right. The only moment where we should go counter-trend as per the rules is when we have an ORIGINAL and FRESH level. That D1 demand area on $index is both original and fresh! That's why! It's not set & forget but it could produce some buying on $index, selling on the majors.

Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #2,973
  • Sep 30, 2013 7:28pm Sep 30, 2013 7:28pm
Hi Mr Alfonso and mates,

thank you Alfonso for all your replies, wise as always

i have a long set up on audnzd

montly, weekly and daily price in in demand zone, nice imbalance on h4 lets see how it goes.




feel free to coment please,
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passion and discipline
  • #2,974
  • Sep 30, 2013 8:32pm Sep 30, 2013 8:32pm
Quoting rohule
Hi Mr Alfonso and mates, thank you Alfonso for all your replies, wise as always i have a long set up on audnzd montly, weekly and daily price in in demand zone, nice imbalance on h4 lets see how it goes. feel free to coment please, {image}
Hi Rohule,

I would be wary of that daily demand because it is pretty used up (tested 4 times), with each time going deeper. This could be a sign that the demand is going to break. Personally I would prefer to minimally wait for the daily supply (Alfonso shorted from here too) to break first before considering any longs. Note also that AUD Cash Rate and RBA Rate Statement is coming up in an hour time, could be potentially volatile for the AUD pairs. Just my personal opinion, and hope it works out for you!

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  • #2,975
  • Oct 1, 2013 12:58am Oct 1, 2013 12:58am
In the unlikely event that GBPAUD retraces back up again, I think it is a good short. If a daily head and shoulders does transpire, it could be the start of a very big move down.

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Right now on the H4 it looks like a double top break down, if new zones are formed on H1 or H4 before we hit daily demand they should be shortable too. Comments are welcome!
  • #2,976
  • Oct 1, 2013 1:11am Oct 1, 2013 1:11am
Quoting panoramia
{quote} Nice AUDCHF setup Ivan, I agree with your analysis on AUDCHF. The way you explained the setup was just excellent, congralutions! Just a couple of things I would like to point out: My H4 supply on AUCHF is slightly different. I cover the whole zone, there is a last week high (red beads). I am tired of seeing levels like those being overshot and then drop in my direction. So I covered the whole area Buying on AUDCHF H4. I believe there is also an interesting H4 demand right above your level, it's got an unfilled gap. This level is right at...

Hey alfonso, are you still sell mode at audchf 4hr chart supply label ?
  • #2,977
  • Oct 1, 2013 1:22am Oct 1, 2013 1:22am
awesome..

nice thread and effort..

thanks for sharing !
  • #2,978
  • Oct 1, 2013 1:26am Oct 1, 2013 1:26am
Quoting Myst1z
In the unlikely event that GBPAUD retraces back up again, I think it is a good short. If a daily head and shoulders does transpire, it could be the start of a very big move down. {image} {image} Right now on the H4 it looks like a double top break down, if new zones are formed on H1 or H4 before we hit daily demand they should be shortable too. Comments are welcome!
That GBPAUD looks like a nice short definetely Ivan, but a bit wide as you said! I don't trade GBPAUD because my broker does not have good history on Weekly and Monthly timeframes, I trade EURAUD instead which is highly correlated. The weekly chart is distributing up there, no sense of direction though, the longer it stays consolidating the bigger the explosion when it breaks out

Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #2,979
  • Oct 1, 2013 1:29am Oct 1, 2013 1:29am
Dear alfonso,

We are eagerly waiting your new video of trendline drawing on different scenarios.
  • #2,980
  • Oct 1, 2013 1:30am Oct 1, 2013 1:30am
Quoting Nvrgvup
{quote} Hi Markot, It seems to me you are too low in the weekly and daily curve to short that pair. Is there something I am missing with the Daily CP counter trend to your short entry? If I understand the rules that is still daily demand in control. I am still having a bit of trouble with the HTF CP's so any guidance would be helpful. Thanks, Greg Edit: I see Alfonso, in a few posts later, answered this by trading this CP zone as S&F. I missed this discussion last week. Sorry {image}
No problem Greg. AUDJPY long seems to be working so far, I had 2 entries. One on H4 set & forget demand at the D1 distal line and a second entry on my D1 account based on the whole D1 demand area.

There was news on the Aussie last night, cash rate was kept at %2.50 (good for currency), price at higher timeframe demand... so I am holding it... we'll see what happens. My H4 is at breakeven already, my D1 trade is not yet. Attached my D1 trade, moved my SL underneath new H4 demand area.

Alfonso
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Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
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