Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno | Page 148 | Forex Factory

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Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno

  • #2,941
  • Sep 30, 2013 5:08am Sep 30, 2013 5:08am
What do you think about GBPUSD h4 short trade Alfonso? What i did wrong? Thank you very much!
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  • #2,942
  • Sep 30, 2013 5:29am Sep 30, 2013 5:29am
Can someone please clarify this for me.

I was reading something Mystiz said regarding D1/H4/H1 and I became confused.

I thought H4 was an intermediate time frame, therefore, we do not use it to determine Supply/Demand in control? Only D1?

And then use H1/H4 as entries only.

I thought Daily, Wkly, an Mnthly were the only TF to be used for supply/demand in control?

Thanks
  • #2,943
  • Sep 30, 2013 5:34am Sep 30, 2013 5:34am
Quoting bobyv87
What do you think about GBPUSD h4 short trade Alfonso? What i did wrong? Thank you very much! {image}
Hi
Boby
The entry which your fresh H4 arrow points to is the 1st touch for supply from January after that everything is old , it moved a very nice 200 pips to demand below
on return the zone failed .
Photize
  • #2,944
  • Sep 30, 2013 5:52am Sep 30, 2013 5:52am
Quoting photize
{quote} Hi Boby The entry which your fresh H4 arrow points to is the 1st touch for supply from January after that everything is old , it moved a very nice 200 pips to demand below on return the zone failed . Photize

I dont understand. If price drop with very strong departure from a fresh level this level will be invalidated?
  • #2,945
  • Sep 30, 2013 6:01am Sep 30, 2013 6:01am
Quoting bobyv87
{quote} I dont understand. If price drop with very strong departure from a fresh level this level will be invalidated?
I'm not a pro on this matter or something,I'm still learning like you. But maybe I will try to give you the answer.

We are high in the curve(D1 and WK supply zone) so we are looking for selling opportunity but the supply zone on the H4 chart is invalidated because it didn't take out any previous demand zone (as you can see the gray demand zone on my chart) so it's not a good zone to trade. We are looking for short but if it didn't take out any demand zone then don't trade with it. Wait for a new supply zone to be form and take out previous demand then we can trade from it. Hope it help somehow.
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  • #2,946
  • Sep 30, 2013 6:17am Sep 30, 2013 6:17am
Quoting frenetic
{quote} I'm not a pro on this matter or something,I'm still learning like you. But maybe I will try to give you the answer. We are high in the curve(D1 and WK supply zone) so we are looking for selling opportunity but the supply zone on the H4 chart is invalidated because it didn't take out any previous demand zone (as you can see the gray demand zone on my chart) so it's not a good zone to trade. We are looking for short but if it didn't take out any demand zone then don't trade with it. Wait for a new supply zone to be form and take out previous...

It doesnt necessary to take previous demand because d1 zone was fresh
  • #2,947
  • Sep 30, 2013 6:41am Sep 30, 2013 6:41am
Quoting bobyv87
{quote} It doesnt necessary to take previous demand because d1 zone was fresh

I don't know how you draw your D1 supply but as I can see on my chart,Price has already reached the D1 supply once so it's not fresh anymore.(you can see it too on my chart above,the yellow line is the D1 supply zone).

One more things,as I scroll back the chart,the H4 supply zone is not original and fresh. It's just a reaction to previous zone. I think you can find it too.

Last edit: damn,I think I'm just overwhelmed with all these information. Maybe we should wait for Alfonso to explain it....
  • #2,948
  • Sep 30, 2013 6:48am Sep 30, 2013 6:48am
Quoting Tok
Can someone please clarify this for me. I was reading something Mystiz said regarding D1/H4/H1 and I became confused. I thought H4 was an intermediate time frame, therefore, we do not use it to determine Supply/Demand in control? Only D1? And then use H1/H4 as entries only. I thought Daily, Wkly, an Mnthly were the only TF to be used for supply/demand in control? Thanks
Can anyone please comment on this?

How do the timeframes work?

Do I have to have all time frames (monthly, weekly, Daily,) going down to short H4 supply zones?

And what if I run into a monthly demand whilst shorting H4 supply? Does that mean I have to get out of the trade?

I thought I understood, but everyone is saying something different and it confuses me.
  • #2,949
  • Sep 30, 2013 7:14am Sep 30, 2013 7:14am
Quoting Tok
{quote} Can anyone please comment on this? How do the timeframes work? Do I have to have all time frames (monthly, weekly, Daily,) going down to short H4 supply zones? And what if I run into a monthly demand whilst shorting H4 supply? Does that mean I have to get out of the trade? I thought I understood, but everyone is saying something different and it confuses me.
Tok, first post explains it all. There are quite a few webinars on the YouTube channel that will give you all that information. You need to take your time (a few weeks) before you will start understanding the whole logic. Answering to your question would be redundant since it's already been answered a few times on this thread and the videos. Refer to them, be patient, take your time!

Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #2,950
  • Sep 30, 2013 7:24am Sep 30, 2013 7:24am
Quoting panoramia
{quote} Tok, first post explains it all. There are quite a few webinars on the YouTube channel that will give you all that information. You need to take your time (a few weeks) before you will start understanding the whole logic. Answering to your question would be redundant since it's already been answered a few times on this thread and the videos. Refer to them, be patient, take your time! Alfonso
I have done all of this and I still don't understand because everyday someone posts something different.

For instance, nametaker said Something about H4 that I believe is wrong.

I read that you said H4 is an intermediate TF and does not make supply/demand in control.

Nametaker recently posted and said H4 influences trend direction, but I thought that is D1?

And I saw you taking H1 shorts because we were in Monthly supply, which again I don't understand for H1/H4/D1.


This method was much easier to understand when I just read the beginning and only used 2 time frames (D1/H4).

Now it just is messy, because You say something (which is obviously correct), and some regular posters in this thread still dont understand the rules, so they post something that is wrong. Now everything is just messy and rules make no sense anymore.
  • #2,951
  • Sep 30, 2013 7:36am Sep 30, 2013 7:36am
Quoting Tok
{quote} I have done all of this and I still don't understand because everyday someone posts something different. For instance, nametaker said Something about H4 that I believe is wrong. I read that you said H4 is an intermediate TF and does not make supply/demand in control. Nametaker recently posted and said H4 influences trend direction, but I thought that is D1? And I saw you taking H1 shorts because we were in Monthly supply, which again I don't understand for H1/H4/D1.

Remember each member has the right to post his own views and analysis. Sometimes they will follow the rules, others they will think they are following the rules. We all need a learning process to follow, and this learning process TAKES MONTHS. This is valid for this thread and any other methodology you try to followa nd adhere tool. If rules makes no sense to you anymore then either you need to go through it again, or quit, because if it does not makes sense to you then there is no point in trying to follow them.

Supply and demand in control timeframes are D1, WEEKLY and MONTHLY timeframes. Nothing else. If you use H4 or lower then you are not swing trading, you are doing something else.

Quote
This method was much easier to understand when I just read the beginning and only used 2 time frames (D1/H4). Now it just is messy, because You say something (which is obviously correct), and some regular posters in this thread still dont understand the rules, so they post something that is wrong. Now everything is just messy and rules make no sense anymore.
Read the first post, I mention about the Monthly chart there. I am not going to plan swing long trade, that is, expecting a medium term trade, if I am on Monthly supply. You can still go long, but it's too risky and aggressive. The obvious thing to do would be to go short. Going against higher timefarme SD areas (D1/WK/MN) is not a good rule to follow. That's the logic. If anybody, including myself, still want to try and go against HTF SD areas, we must assume that risk.

Refer to the 1st post and not other's trades and views throughout the thread. 1st post has the rules, the webinars being are a very good supplement to them. You will see the way I trade there. Do I make mistakes? Many! But they are based on the rules, rules do not work 100% of the time, nor do I expect them to work so well, it would be unrealistic.

Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #2,952
  • Edited 9:46am Sep 30, 2013 8:00am | Edited 9:46am
For the sake of the GBP/USD, I see we're extremely high in the curve and I don't expect to go long until we get a solid close above ~1.638.
But I ask this just for reassurance. The Hourly is my entry TF. So looking for S/D in Control is off my Daily. It's still correct to take note of SD levels on the 4HR? What would be wrong with this?
I always make sure Daily and 4HR are in alignment before going down to the 1HR.

EDIT: How do you guys keep track of Potential Trades? With at least 15 pairs, and each having 3 essential TF's, it's a lot to remember. I see missed opportunites but that doesn't bother me that much. It's just the fact that setting pending orders on the 1HR are difficult because odds are it's not an original level due to the close proximity of 1HR candles. Any suggestions?
Greatness exists in all of us.
  • #2,953
  • Sep 30, 2013 8:57am Sep 30, 2013 8:57am
Friends, when you take a screen capture to upload, please include a portion of the chart that shows the symbol and timeframe. Thanks for your posts!
  • #2,954
  • Sep 30, 2013 10:19am Sep 30, 2013 10:19am
UpComerFX perhaps use 2 time frames to make it easier?

Q: Level 1 is still demand in control because it's closest to current price and it hasn't been breached yet. Is this correct Alfonso?
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  • #2,955
  • Sep 30, 2013 10:27am Sep 30, 2013 10:27am
Quoting Vitez
UpComerFX perhaps use 2 time frames to make it easier? Q: Level 1 is still demand in control because it's closest to current price and it hasn't been breached yet. Is this correct Alfonso? {image}
Zone 2 is demand in control but against that TF's trend. Price has retested Zone 2 twice, about to test it 3 times. Not valid for set & forget, it's still Demand in control! See my attachment

Alfonso
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Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #2,956
  • Sep 30, 2013 10:45am Sep 30, 2013 10:45am
Alfonso I understand what you are saying regarding Level 2 but I don't understand why is Level 1 not in control? It made new highs and it hasn't been broken yet.
  • #2,957
  • Sep 30, 2013 11:02am Sep 30, 2013 11:02am
i plan to take this short trade on AUD/JPY. It in line with H4 TL, and previous Daily TL is solidly broken.
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  • #2,958
  • Sep 30, 2013 11:06am Sep 30, 2013 11:06am
Quoting Vitez
Alfonso I understand what you are saying regarding Level 2 but I don't understand why is Level 1 not in control? It made new highs and it hasn't been broken yet.
It's on Post #1 rules Vitez. once trend has been broken on the timeframe we are looking at, as defined by the ascending trendline, we need to go to lean on a fresh and original level to go long. Zone 1 is a reaction of zone 2 (lower one). Besides Brent hit WK (I think that Monthly as well) supply area. A higher timeframe supply are is in control, so a lower timeframe like the D1 (with 2 retests), is not the best zone in the work, even though it might work.

But rules are like that. Trendline is broken, so D1 is no longer up. The demand in control should be looked for at a fresh and original area. The upper zone is a rection to previous zone 2.


Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #2,959
  • Sep 30, 2013 11:14am Sep 30, 2013 11:14am
I had a loss on the D1 demand trade I had planned on S&P 500 e-mini, those happen
D1 demand was broken, D1 zone was right at the D1 ascending trendline. Maybe it's a fakeout... I am out of the trade.

But still holding some D1 trades trades from last week. Let's see what happens!

AUDJPY D1 long was triggered as posted last week. It has penetrated the lower H4 demand level (recommended last week to go long on set & forget). Anybody took the AUDJPY H4 demand we talked about last week? I am both long on H4 demand and D1 demand (whole zone) on 2 different accounts.


Alfonso
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Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #2,960
  • Sep 30, 2013 11:46am Sep 30, 2013 11:46am
Alfonso,

This is perfect timing as I was just about to ask if this was a taken level or not. I missed last week's discussion on this but luckily caught it after the open last night. I had a question as to where I should get out and TP, but you've given me a good idea through your picture. Thanks a ton! To me this seemed like a no-brainer novice gap. I'm going to exit 20 pips shy of the 4hr supply I have just at the DAILY proximal. It's always good to get confirmation on the trade so thank you for posting! Not sure how to post a screenshot on here but I'll give it a try here.
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