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  • #8,961
  • Sep 29, 2013 4:10pm Sep 29, 2013 4:10pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...26#post6982426
There we go
  • #8,962
  • Edited 6:22pm Sep 29, 2013 4:57pm | Edited 6:22pm
Yep, bought that reasoning the jpy pairs are on the brink of an up move, I guess really there's more room to the downside.....will buy that, too....one has to react to these spikes. small stop till later in the session.
EDIT......took that 3% and sitting on the sidelines....took all of 1 hour and ten minutes....ever notice that....you can always see 3%....we should just grab it when we see it....
  • #8,963
  • Sep 30, 2013 2:58am Sep 30, 2013 2:58am
With US government shutdown looming, and a very good chance of them waiting till the last second to approve a deal (Oct1), there was going to be a lot of safe haven buying. IE: Yen buying

With this in mind, 20 minutes before closing on Friday, I opened a short looking for a decent gap down.

Short @ 158.50
SL: 20 pips
TP: 60 pips (157.90)

Trade Idea: 20 pip stop on the off chance the US government came to a deal (highly unlikely)

Plan for the week, stay clear until a deal is made then hop on some longs.
  • #8,964
  • Sep 30, 2013 3:09am Sep 30, 2013 3:09am
gbpjpy in critical stage for next 30 min because Net Lending to Individuals m/m report will open within 20 min and Tokyo will close within 50 min so its spike time / fishing time for me...
Mail: holygrailea (AT) gmail ( DOT ) com
  • #8,965
  • Sep 30, 2013 4:08am Sep 30, 2013 4:08am
bearish dragon H4 brings us to 157.3, 156.6
  • #8,966
  • Sep 30, 2013 5:13am Sep 30, 2013 5:13am
Quoting supaH
With US government shutdown looming, and a very good chance of them waiting till the last second to approve a deal (Oct1), there was going to be a lot of safe haven buying. IE: Yen buying With this in mind, 20 minutes before closing on Friday, I opened a short looking for a decent gap down. Short @ 158.50 SL: 20 pips TP: 60 pips (157.90) Trade Idea: 20 pip stop on the off chance the US government came to a deal (highly unlikely) Plan for the week, stay clear until a deal is made then hop on some longs.
Hmmm
If your post was dated Friday after the close I might believe you, even I could have posted this today
  • #8,967
  • Edited 5:30am Sep 30, 2013 5:16am | Edited 5:30am
OK, a fast run up to 158.6 on 11 September, followed by a very long slow and low momentum move sideways (left side), followed by a quick run to 159.9 on Sep 19.

Then, after a modest drop we had some fast spikes (right side) to 159.2 and 159, forming what takes the appearance of the right side an off-center h&S.

Then today an inability to reclaim above 158.5.

All the while taking SO many days, now going into 2 weeks.

------------------------

All that's missing now is a break below 157.6 to maybe 156.5/8 and then a failure to get back over either 158 or 158.3.

-----------------------

If the last bit fails to eventuate, or the retest rises over 158.6, it's just a regular correction.

If the last bit DOES happen, if nothing else, it fits the parameters of and MAY be a reversal - at least in the medium term. But, even then it could still end up just being a complex correction, so I guess this doesn't really help, other than just being a possibility at the moment.

A reversal of this size would probably take GJ down below 154.
  • #8,968
  • Sep 30, 2013 5:27am Sep 30, 2013 5:27am
I finally joined forexfactory because of this tread, i am fully interested in trading GBP/JPY, but the weekend jump took almost half my account, so i go bearish hoping market will cover September 5 weekend jump up. Anyone in here to advise on this trade because i am taking huge risk, unprofessional i guess!
  • #8,969
  • Sep 30, 2013 5:54am Sep 30, 2013 5:54am
Quoting alukojoshfx
I finally joined forexfactory because of this tread, i am fully interested in trading GBP/JPY, but the weekend jump took almost half my account, so i go bearish hoping market will cover September 5 weekend jump up. Anyone in here to advise on this trade because i am taking huge risk, unprofessional i guess!

Unfortunately, trading in conditions such as this (be it a correction or otherwise) is extremely hard, other than just hopefully picking up a few pips along the way. Once it is finally established what this formation really is, we will have have a better idea of break out levels .. and these should be easier to trade.

For now, UJ appears to be dragging us down, which is unexpected, as Uj really should have bounced at 97.8 and defintely SHOULD bounce at around 97.1. If it fails to bounce much below there (like 96.8), then it may have negated its bullish triangle.
  • #8,970
  • Sep 30, 2013 6:37am Sep 30, 2013 6:37am
Ok, still in the trade and riding down with GJ, really wish i know when to leave the trade as i trade on 4H time frame.
  • #8,971
  • Sep 30, 2013 9:33am Sep 30, 2013 9:33am
Quoting alukojoshfx
I finally joined forexfactory because of this tread, i am fully interested in trading GBP/JPY, but the weekend jump took almost half my account, so i go bearish hoping market will cover September 5 weekend jump up. Anyone in here to advise on this trade because i am taking huge risk, unprofessional i guess!
..
hey there....welcome....trade short term....if possible....be watching the charts at the London Open....and notice the moves reverse at the 30 minute marks on the clock....the big boys must be watching the 30 minute chart. With this trade...punch out within 1 hour....or sometimes 30 minutes...
You're looking for the reversals, despite what we hear so much by the rookies/disinfo agents....there's way less risk....and it works
  • #8,972
  • Sep 30, 2013 10:23am Sep 30, 2013 10:23am
Hey pls, who are the rookies and what did they say my account burning now, an info to whether i should stay or bexit
  • #8,973
  • Sep 30, 2013 11:19am Sep 30, 2013 11:19am
Quoting alukojoshfx
Hey pls, who are the rookies and what did they say my account burning now, an info to whether i should stay or bexit
now how many extra pips you have?
Mail: holygrailea (AT) gmail ( DOT ) com
  • #8,974
  • Sep 30, 2013 11:25am Sep 30, 2013 11:25am
With this week's run of Chinese banks holidays (also German banks on Thursday) do you think its better to stay out of the market to be safe, or will the GBPJPY keep going strong regardless?
The daily range is usually smaller with more chop on those days, but in this case its almost a whole week!
  • #8,975
  • Sep 30, 2013 12:50pm Sep 30, 2013 12:50pm
Damn i didnt expect such a move up. You guys think we gonna go up much much more or is it down from now on?
  • #8,976
  • Sep 30, 2013 2:01pm Sep 30, 2013 2:01pm
gbpjpy is spiking between day range until BOJ meeting at next Friday, keep watch the break out level and trade in the range next big news report is tomorrows GBP Manufacturing PMI also there is some JPY news coming before and after tokyo open but not important like gbp report.
Mail: holygrailea (AT) gmail ( DOT ) com
  • #8,977
  • Sep 30, 2013 4:17pm Sep 30, 2013 4:17pm
Quoting skymania
Damn i didnt expect such a move up. You guys think we gonna go up much much more or is it down from now on?
still only peak B on the weekly so unless its a B- WHICH it doesnt look like to me at this point....gbpjpy is going higher...just needs to consolidate its recent gains.
  • #8,978
  • Edited 6:40pm Sep 30, 2013 6:26pm | Edited 6:40pm
Quoting ninner
{quote} still only peak B on the weekly so unless its a B- WHICH it doesnt look like to me at this point....gbpjpy is going higher...just needs to consolidate its recent gains.
We will know if it's complete if it gets back below about 158.6/7.
  • #8,979
  • Sep 30, 2013 6:46pm Sep 30, 2013 6:46pm
Quoting skymania
Damn i didnt expect such a move up. You guys think we gonna go up much much more or is it down from now on?
Trying to catch up here slowly but surely. While I don't like to offer straight up advice because of the risk of being wrong, I am pretty confident that GJ will move up from here, currently just above 159. If you trade off the 4H like aluko says he does, it's a tough call. I wouldn't want to be short right now, except for maybe a quick scalp on 30m or less. But I am long as of now.

Sorry I'm just starting to catch up here otherwise I would've posted my thoughts sooner. I can give a more full analysis later, but I see the potential US shutdown situation as simply an opportunity to "buy the dips".
Please check out my blog at https://from-zero-to-hero . net
  • #8,980
  • Sep 30, 2013 6:52pm Sep 30, 2013 6:52pm
Wow, if only I had posted that last one a few minutes earlier... it might have actually been useful to someone
Please check out my blog at https://from-zero-to-hero . net
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