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How many people are actually making money rather than losing?

  • #81
  • Sep 30, 2013 4:11am Sep 30, 2013 4:11am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} The most important is that you take your trades based on your view without the influence of others. It's your trade, so you have to love it or leave it. It's tempting to like a trade that somebody else likes, but in the end it's your account, your money, your risk, your style. To clarify, I am certainly not an opponent of sharing ideas and analysis. In fact I believe it is essential because we sometimes miss key points in our own analysis. However, you have to be like a judge. Hear arguments from both sides, combine it with what you already...
we sometimes miss key points///////////////combine it with what you already know, and then draw your own conclusions.
  • #82
  • Sep 30, 2013 4:20am Sep 30, 2013 4:20am
Quoting jen101
{quote} Thanks PipTrapper. On the whole I am happy with what I am doing and the progress I have made this year. I am here because I like because I like the entertainment, the can / can't argument, it's almost irresistible...
That's excellent. Keep it up

Yes, at times it's quite hilarious
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #83
  • Sep 30, 2013 4:53am Sep 30, 2013 4:53am
Quoting jen101
{quote} Thanks PipTrapper. On the whole I am happy with what I am doing and the progress I have made this year. I am here because I like because I like the entertainment, the can / can't argument, it's almost irresistible...
yes like the US Congress at its ​Best...
  • #84
  • Sep 30, 2013 5:19am Sep 30, 2013 5:19am
Great post.

My question is: what is an inefficiency ? Where does it come from ? And how do YOU define an inefficiency that you consider an edge for yourself ?

Quoting pemully
What does it tell you about the future? what works now will not work too well and what stopped working well will never really work well again,amid some spurts here and there.Unless you are an outlier,out of the box thinker,one in a million-a kind of Neo guy you cant make anything substantial out of the markets.If you use classic/time tested trading principles, in order to make any super earnings you have to live with very large volatility in your account, the free lunch period ended.
Why ? what has changed ?

What i don't understand is how inefficiencies dissapear in time, throughout the trading history ? I agree that they CHANGE in time, so when something stopped working it did so AT THE EXPENSE of a new, and perhaps yet undiscovered, inefficiency created.

Even if some form of widely known inefficiency has been "cleared by the smartest" it can only be so at the expense of newly created exposure. Isn't that exposure a new inefficiency ? I don't know if i'm explaining it clearly.

Anyways, trends have to be challenged, indicators have to fail just like they sometimes work and so on and so on. Otherwise the markets wouldn't be zero sum. I think this core logic has been around from the start and will be so in the future. The question is: can you build something on that ?






Quoting pemully
back in 2004 Richard Dennis was interviewed in a cheap fast food restaurant as is his usual habit.He said trading is 10* harder than it used to be.Systems trading is like chasing your own tail,the very fact that you discover an edge,that edge diminishes as many quants arrive at that edge using various ways.Soon the edge can hold all the money trading it and degrades,only now it happens 10* faster with all the speed available. All measurable edges are non-robust...think about that.If trendfollowing would have worked as well as it did then the top...
  • #85
  • Sep 30, 2013 5:22am Sep 30, 2013 5:22am
total money made / total hours wasted on trading = $25/hour

Sure enough to live, but nothing to worry about.

once you have what it takes, have to go for rich. else markets change and edge evaporates and you into poor house.
  • #86
  • Sep 30, 2013 5:26am Sep 30, 2013 5:26am
Quoting lumesh
I think this core logic has been around from the start and will be so in the future. The question is: can you build something on that ? {quote}
Yep
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: house-stencil.jpg Size: 34 KB
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #87
  • Sep 30, 2013 5:28am Sep 30, 2013 5:28am
Quoting seaman2
total money made / total hours wasted on trading = $25/hour Sure enough to live, but nothing to worry about. once you have what it takes, have to go for rich. else markets change and edge evaporates and you into poor house.
As long as you enjoy what you do, come and go as you please, even if it was only $10/hour, it would be worth it.
You cannot put a price on freedom.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #88
  • Sep 30, 2013 5:46am Sep 30, 2013 5:46am
Quoting seaman2
$25/hour
How much is the capital been traded ?
So sorry for always replying late! But I got 2 Jobs!!
  • #89
  • Sep 30, 2013 5:47am Sep 30, 2013 5:47am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Yep {image}
Lmfao
So sorry for always replying late! But I got 2 Jobs!!
  • #90
  • Sep 30, 2013 6:48am Sep 30, 2013 6:48am
I don't see trends in the market dying out ever . I believe they are a form of nature and will happen whether they are rational or not, just like seasons, tides and cycles. The herd does what the herd does, al;ways has and always will. I also believe that as long as there are trends there will be ways to trade them.

Of course things stop working and have to be changed and replaced. Not just in trading but in life. That's why we don't live in caves anymore.

If figuring out how to adapt and seeing what's going on in the markets doesn't get you springing out of bed in the morning then this business aint for you.

I fucking love it

Lost a crapload of money discovering my own weaknesses and what I need to change but I don't see that as lost money any more. For me this is also a journey of self discovery and improvement
Anything can happen.
  • #91
  • Sep 30, 2013 6:55am Sep 30, 2013 6:55am
Quoting ddinnov
i don't see trends in the market dying out ever . I believe they are a form of nature and will happen whether they are rational or not, just like seasons, tides and cycles. The herd does what the herd does, al;ways has and always will. I also believe that as long as there are trends there will be ways to trade them. Of course things stop working and have to be changed and replaced. Not just in trading but in life. That's why we don't live in caves anymore. If figuring out how to adapt and seeing what's going on in the markets doesn't get you springing...


nailed it!!!!!
couldn't explain it better
  • #92
  • Sep 30, 2013 8:04am Sep 30, 2013 8:04am
Quoting Muhammad Ezz
{quote} How much is the capital been traded ?
Last 500 hours responsible for majority of my career gains.

Currently last 200 hrs trading 1 - 2 m face value in currencies or equivalent in stocks depending on VOL. not much success yet on this level though. Maybe fighting bit of a psychological bet size issue.

Worst drawdown so far 8k.
  • #93
  • Sep 30, 2013 9:13am Sep 30, 2013 9:13am
Quoting seaman2
{quote} Last 500 hours responsible for majority of my career gains. Currently last 200 hrs trading 1 - 2 m face value in currencies or equivalent in stocks depending on VOL. not much success yet on this level though. Maybe fighting bit of a psychological bet size issue. Worst drawdown so far 8k.
Dude the 25 bucks isn't worth it then!
So sorry for always replying late! But I got 2 Jobs!!
  • #94
  • Sep 30, 2013 10:08am Sep 30, 2013 10:08am
Quoting hanover
{quote} Nice post, IMO, some great points. I started studying FX in 2006 and my gut feel is that markets have become less predictable, especially intraday, during that time. Prior to the global recession, there was a much greater disparity in national interest rates (NZ was > 8%; Japan ~ 0.25%), and it was possible to ride the carry trade for easy money (plus positive swap).
i agree in large. Times have changed from the days where you could place a trade with the carry, follow the stronger currency vs the weaker for periods and where news moved a market generally n the way the news should have. Today with sophistication in computer models it's a very different game but there are still fundamentals in e way money moves and the roles large institutions and businesses play. The manipulation is stronger but patterns have generally survived the changes over the years. Richard Dennis's model of riding longer term waves would likely get shaken out with some of the interventions and so forth but the economics of today's world are likely to be different compared to yesterday's and one just needs to be mindful. Trading has and will always be a minority game by way of overall large scale winners. Statistics over e past 100 years will back that up but each person needs to be critical of what success is defined at. Very few people become millionaires withouta strong starting point including capital plus risks to build upon
  • #95
  • Sep 30, 2013 1:52pm Sep 30, 2013 1:52pm
good points @ hanover and lumesh,

all Im trying to say is that we should be skeptical.If you are making money,good but that shouldnt breed overconfidence.As for me Im making reasonably high returns,but at the back of my mind I know it wont last forever,maybe until I find some new +ve expectancy systems
wo-yoy! wo-yoy! wo-yoy! wo-yoi! wo-yoy-yoy-yoy!
  • #96
  • Sep 30, 2013 3:11pm Sep 30, 2013 3:11pm
Quoting pemully
at the back of my mind I know it wont last forever
What makes you think this?
Anything can happen.
  • #97
  • Sep 30, 2013 3:42pm Sep 30, 2013 3:42pm
Quoting Muhammad Ezz
{quote} Dude the 25 bucks isn't worth it then!
when you put on a trade and lose, yeah, wasn't worth it doing it So why did you do it ? Why don't you skip all losers and enter only winners ?!
  • #98
  • Sep 30, 2013 3:49pm Sep 30, 2013 3:49pm
Quoting seaman2
{quote} when you put on a trade and lose, yeah, wasn't worth it doing it So why did you do it ? Why don't you skip all losers and enter only winners ?!

I don't understand you sir
So sorry for always replying late! But I got 2 Jobs!!
  • #99
  • Sep 30, 2013 3:56pm Sep 30, 2013 3:56pm
Quoting seaman2
{quote} when you put on a trade and lose, yeah, wasn't worth it doing it So why did you do it ? Why don't you skip all losers and enter only winners ?!
I don't know why you do it, but generally when a trader is in front of the charts he/she wants to be productive instead of starting at candles.
Therefore, instead of waiting for a real good setup to come along, the trader starts mindfecking him/her self about how it's now or never "coz if I don't jump on the train now, I'm gonna miss it". That's a very common psych issue with traders.
So what's the solution? Simple. Develop a very strict trading plan with set rules. If all the rules are not met, tie your hands to the arm of your chair.
If you follow all the rules and the trade still fails too many times in a row, you need to go back to the drawing board.
In this business there is no room for emotions. Emotions will land you in margin call territory or the food bank queue.
Just follow your mechanical trading system... obviously one that works anyway.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #100
  • Sep 30, 2013 4:35pm Sep 30, 2013 4:35pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} I don't know why you do it, but generally when a trader is in front of the charts he/she wants to be productive instead of starting at candles. Therefore, instead of waiting for a real good setup to come along, the trader starts mindfecking him/her self about how it's now or never "coz if I don't jump on the train now, I'm gonna miss it". That's a very common psych issue with traders. So what's the solution? Simple. Develop a very strict trading plan with set rules. If all the rules are not met, tie your hands to the arm of your chair....
You are right. What I adopted recently is 100% trade with plan. That means one has to have a clear plan for all stages & scenarios of trade and follow it. What I also found out is that not having 100% worked out plan, makes me trade impulsively and substandard decisions are made.
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