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How many people are actually making money rather than losing?

  • #61
  • Sep 29, 2013 9:35am Sep 29, 2013 9:35am
Quoting 2+2=4ex
{quote} Well if he crashes, then at least he went out with a bang!
Alien has never done that with a Woman in his lap............
The More You Learn, The More You Earn.....
  • #62
  • Sep 29, 2013 9:37am Sep 29, 2013 9:37am
Quoting Kanzler
{quote} Absolute proof that you don't have a clue what risk is. Thanks. {quote} I'm guessing you get my point. It's just unreasonable to ask someone to go on what may very well be a wild goose chase to prove someone else's claim. It's the burden of the claimant to provide evidence for their position.
Risk is the amount of Margin not used, or used............

You really need to take a Happy Pill...................
The More You Learn, The More You Earn.....
  • #63
  • Edited 10:02am Sep 29, 2013 9:43am | Edited 10:02am
Quoting forexalien
{quote} Risk is the amount of Margin not used, or used............ You really need to take a Happy Pill...................

No. Risk is the amount of your funds (real or percentage wise) that you could potentially lose when you open a position as determined by the placement of your stoploss or where a margin call would be executed by the broker. Posting a picture of your leverage isn't something relevant because you can make a $50 position with 50:1 or 200:1. All that has to do is with position sizing. It amazes me how some people end up getting ten or more vouchers total while missing such basic understanding of trading concepts in general, but then I look at who they're from and I understand.
  • #64
  • Sep 29, 2013 2:49pm Sep 29, 2013 2:49pm
Quoting Kanzler
{quote} No. Risk is the amount of your funds (real or percentage wise) that you could potentially lose when you open a position as determined by the placement of your stoploss or where a margin call would be executed by the broker. Posting a picture of your leverage isn't something relevant because you can make a $50 position with 50:1 or 200:1. All that has to do is with position sizing. It amazes me how some people end up getting ten or more vouchers total while missing such basic understanding of trading concepts in general, but then I look at...
Risk is your available margin.
If you lever up a trade to the point where your available margin is extremely low, then that's all you're risking.
Say your available margin is 5% of your equity, then you only risk 5%.
If you use small lot sizes (say with a required margin of 5% of your account), then you're risking 95%

Did I earn my 64 vouchers yet?
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #65
  • Sep 29, 2013 3:42pm Sep 29, 2013 3:42pm
I now see why successful traders dont do forex forums, cause its so, so fucking distracting!!!
  • #66
  • Sep 29, 2013 3:54pm Sep 29, 2013 3:54pm
I have to admit, that i am as well on the way to get this question answered and as it looks like, not much. I think the way trading is presented to us as new traders, from the adds, account managers and other sources, is often not telling us the full truth. From my experience the most problematic factor is the human itself. Why? Because the hardest task is to control our greediness. Our greediness is leading the most of the traders to the point to do mistakes, even that we knew afterwards, when we pushed the "order placement button" or a bit later, that this trade was a waste of money. Yes, we read all the books, yes we watch all the videos, yes we work with strategies, yes we know MM, but still we make the mistakes, which is leading into a death trap in which the most blow their balance (me as well).
I dont have the answer yet, how to make it better, but i think communication with other is helpful and sharing experiences(if we take them seriously) is very important.
  • #67
  • Sep 29, 2013 4:27pm Sep 29, 2013 4:27pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Risk is your available margin. If you lever up a trade to the point where your available margin is extremely low, then that's all you're risking. Say your available margin is 5% of your equity, then you only risk 5%. If you use small lot sizes (say with a required margin of 5% of your account), then you're risking 95% Did I earn my 64 vouchers yet?
Sure, if you're not using a stoploss and relying on the margin call it is. Which is why I included that part about hitting the margin call, but typically that's not how one trades or defines their trade risk. If you're using leverage up to the point that you have $95 in margin used to $5 left over, and that $5 is what you're wanting to risk for the trade (and gives you the room on the chart you wanted), sure, that works too. But you could just use your position sizing to set a $5 loss if the position moves x pips against you in the first place.
  • #68
  • Sep 29, 2013 4:56pm Sep 29, 2013 4:56pm
Quoting Kanzler
{quote} Sure, if you're not using a stoploss and relying on the margin call it is. Which is why I included that part about hitting the margin call, but typically that's not how one trades or defines their trade risk. If you're using leverage up to the point that you have $95 in margin used to $5 left over, and that $5 is what you're wanting to risk for the trade (and gives you the room on the chart you wanted), sure, that works too. But you could just use your position sizing to set a $5 loss if the position moves x pips against you in the first...
I was just offering a different view. I know a few traders who do that, but they use multiple accounts to trade that way. It's the only time it is safe to use high leverage. Just imagine using that methodology once you develop the knack of identifying pivot points to the pip. With max leverage, all you'll be looking for is a 20 pip gain and you're done for the week.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #69
  • Sep 29, 2013 5:18pm Sep 29, 2013 5:18pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} I was just offering a different view. I know a few traders who do that, but they use multiple accounts to trade that way. It's the only time it is safe to use high leverage. Just imagine using that methodology once you develop the knack of identifying pivot points to the pip. With max leverage, all you'll be looking for is a 20 pip gain and you're done for the week.
Unless I'm missing something here I don't see an advantage; if your plan says risk 1% per trade, you always risk that amount. While the leverage on the account ultimately determines how much of your account is locked into margin, it's never been a major factor for me as I only risk 1% or less per trade and I can adjust my position size to whatever amount needed so that when my stop is active I lose that 1% and only that much. If you use up your leverage to the point that you only have your risk left over, I assume you've got a really tight stop pips-wise otherwise because each pip is going to be worth a lot. My entries are precise but not that precise.
  • #70
  • Sep 29, 2013 5:51pm Sep 29, 2013 5:51pm
Quoting Kanzler
{quote} Unless I'm missing something here I don't see an advantage; if your plan says risk 1% per trade, you always risk that amount. While the leverage on the account ultimately determines how much of your account is locked into margin, it's never been a major factor for me as I only risk 1% or less per trade and I can adjust my position size to whatever amount needed so that when my stop is active I lose that 1% and only that much. If you use up your leverage to the point that you only have your risk left over, I assume you've got a really tight...
Oh I don't trade that way. I use very low leverage. In fact it is so low that a black swan event won't even raise my blood pressure.... and yet I can still double an account in one year, which for me is plenty.

Anyway, the idea is to use most of your margin so that you can get out after only 20 pips with huge profits... but yes, you have to be very precise.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #71
  • Edited 6:37pm Sep 29, 2013 5:54pm | Edited 6:37pm
Quoting pemully
back in 2004 Richard Dennis was interviewed.......
Nice post, IMO, some great points.

I started studying FX in 2006 and my gut feel is that markets have become less predictable, especially intraday, during that time. Prior to the global recession, there was a much greater disparity in national interest rates (NZ was > 8%; Japan ~ 0.25%), and it was possible to ride the carry trade for easy money (plus positive swap). Regarding intraday, I've read that many previously exploitable inefficiencies have been reduced by bigger banks, and with their increase of algorithmic trading.

While markets may lose 'predictability', I don't believe that they will ever become completely static, as central banks must make their targets, hence there will always be opportunities for those who are able to decipher, and when necessary adapt, to their changing agendas. Moreover, price always forms patterns of consolidation, and then expansion, even if parameters like volatility, that determine the precise dimensions of these patterns, is forever changing; the patterns created by trader emotions will never change, and those created by order accumulation and then followed by profit taking, likewise. On the longer timeframes, I believe 'trends' will always exist, due to macroeconmic factors, money flows, and the fact that it takes large players time to unwind their huge positions, and/or drive price to their longer term targets. As far as I'm (thus far) aware, techniques involving big money tracking, levels of supply and demand, and orderflow (there is considerable overlap between these topics) can still provide the intraday trader with an 'edge', if he is expert enough at reading the patterns that they create.

Hence I disagree with the earlier poster who stated that markets are random. To the central banks who are pushing price to designated targets, they are anything but; and even if the retailer is unable to decipher these patterns, there are still obvious differences in price behavior as it stalls around key levels and zones, that reflect the volumes of orders around those levels.

Profitable retail forex is not quite dead, at least not yet.
  • #72
  • Sep 29, 2013 8:30pm Sep 29, 2013 8:30pm
Quoting Kanzler
{quote} No. Risk is the amount of your funds (real or percentage wise) that you could potentially lose when you open a position as determined by the placement of your stoploss or where a margin call would be executed by the broker. Posting a picture of your leverage isn't something relevant because you can make a $50 position with 50:1 or 200:1. All that has to do is with position sizing. It amazes me how some people end up getting ten or more vouchers total while missing such basic understanding of trading concepts in general,[u][b] but then I...
Really ? You surely have better English than this ..........................
The More You Learn, The More You Earn.....
  • #73
  • Sep 29, 2013 8:32pm Sep 29, 2013 8:32pm
Quoting Kanzler
{quote} No. Risk is the amount of your funds (real or percentage wise) that you could potentially lose when you open a position as determined by the placement of your stoploss or where a margin call would be executed by the broker. Posting a picture of your leverage isn't something relevant because you can make a $50 position with 50:1 or 200:1. All that has to do is with position sizing. It amazes me how some people end up getting ten or more vouchers total while missing such basic understanding of trading concepts in general, but then I look at...
You could margin your Whole account on 1 trade, and it would kick you out 3 pips later and all you would lose is the 3 pips..................

Are you sure you know what you are talking about ?
The More You Learn, The More You Earn.....
  • #74
  • Sep 29, 2013 8:34pm Sep 29, 2013 8:34pm
Quoting Makavell
I now see why successful traders dont do forex forums, cause its so, so fucking distracting!!!
yes , it is a pile of crap..............

twice a day here, is all Alien can handle anymore...............
The More You Learn, The More You Earn.....
  • #75
  • Sep 29, 2013 8:36pm Sep 29, 2013 8:36pm
Quoting LongTermFX
I have to admit, that i am as well on the way to get this question answered and as it looks like, not much. I think the way trading is presented to us as new traders, from the adds, account managers and other sources, is often not telling us the full truth. From my experience the most problematic factor is the human itself. Why? Because the hardest task is to control our greediness. Our greediness is leading the most of the traders to the point to do mistakes, even that we knew afterwards, when we pushed the "order placement button" or a bit later,...
You are your own self's enemy............Not the Market.........
The More You Learn, The More You Earn.....
  • #76
  • Sep 29, 2013 8:56pm Sep 29, 2013 8:56pm
Quoting forexalien
{quote} You could margin your Whole account on 1 trade, and it would kick you out 3 pips later and all you would lose is the 3 pips.................. Are you sure you know what you are talking about ?
Three pips worth what each though? Probably more than you wanted to potentially lose on that trade.
  • #77
  • Sep 30, 2013 2:19am Sep 30, 2013 2:19am
Quoting Kanzler
{quote} Three pips worth what each though? Probably more than you wanted to potentially lose on that trade.
It's all about RR ratios. If you're looking for a 20 to 30 pip move against a 3 pip risk, then that gives you a 7:1 to 10:1 ratio.
If you have the skillset to identify pivots right to the pip (in much less volatile trading), then it's quite doable.
Of course for me this is all theoretical coz I'm too much of a chicken for that kind of trading
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #78
  • Sep 30, 2013 2:48am Sep 30, 2013 2:48am
Quoting Makavell
I now see why successful traders dont do forex forums, cause its so, so fucking distracting!!!
All this mashes my head! When I'm done with my demo-ing I might just bow out (Mapleleaf will probably say it's proof I failed lol) but there is some valuable and insightful stuff here - thank you Hanover.
  • #79
  • Sep 30, 2013 3:42am Sep 30, 2013 3:42am
Quoting jen101
{quote} All this mashes my head! When I'm done with my demo-ing I might just bow out (Mapleleaf will probably say it's proof I failed lol) but there is some valuable and insightful stuff here - thank you Hanover.
The most important is that you take your trades based on your view without the influence of others.
It's your trade, so you have to love it or leave it. It's tempting to like a trade that somebody else likes, but in the end it's your account, your money, your risk, your style.
To clarify, I am certainly not an opponent of sharing ideas and analysis. In fact I believe it is essential because we sometimes miss key points in our own analysis. However, you have to be like a judge. Hear arguments from both sides, combine it with what you already know, and then draw your own conclusions.
Notwithstanding any of the above, the key to success is risk management because you will often be wrong, but at least your winners will stand a chance of far outweighing your losses. By risk management I mean a low risk to a high potential reward ratio. In order words, buy at strong support and sell at strong resistance. If you place a trade in the middle of a zone, you may as well just write a cheque to you broker and mail it to them as a gift.

Just my 2 cents worth.

Best of luck and many green pips to you.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #80
  • Sep 30, 2013 3:59am Sep 30, 2013 3:59am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} The most important is that you take your trades based on your view without the influence of others. It's your trade, so you have to love it or leave it. It's tempting to like a trade that somebody else likes, but in the end it's your account, your money, your risk, your style. To clarify, I am certainly not an opponent of sharing ideas and analysis. In fact I believe it is essential because we sometimes miss key points in our own analysis. However, you have to be like a judge. Hear arguments from both sides, combine it with what you already...
Thanks PipTrapper. On the whole I am happy with what I am doing and the progress I have made this year. I am here because I like because I like the entertainment, the can / can't argument, it's almost irresistible...
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