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AUD/USD

  • #66,761
  • Sep 30, 2013 5:09am Sep 30, 2013 5:09am
My shorts under water now. Bad data means stronger aud. Fook the news, I never bother with this kind of news. Just trade from charts
the cautious seldom err....C
  • #66,762
  • Sep 30, 2013 5:11am Sep 30, 2013 5:11am
Quoting pips29
My shorts under water now. Bad data means stronger aud. Fook the news, I never bother with this kind of news. Just trade from charts
No need to fook the news. Yes trade from your charts, but keep the news in perspective. See my previous post.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #66,763
  • Sep 30, 2013 5:15am Sep 30, 2013 5:15am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Let's see if I can shed some light on certain anomalies we tend to see in the market. Anomaly: You get good data and the currency either doesn't move, or it goes the other way. WTF? Reasons: Yep it happens under certain conditions. Either the market has already priced it in (front run the news), or the instrument is so technically overbought that only bad news would have moved it... or, such as in this case, there are more important events elsewhere and the market is focused on them. Whilst mid to long term price moves based on the underlying...
Thanks for that.

Well my guess was that very good pmi data was priced in and such a bad result surely would have seen it push lower. But as you stated, eyes and ears may very well be elsewhere for many awaiting bigger news.
  • #66,764
  • Sep 30, 2013 5:16am Sep 30, 2013 5:16am
9335/40 offered good support when price was above and now should equally offer good resistance. So this is one of those areas where a short may yield a few pips on a scalp or intraday basis only. The RR would be excellent coz an SL at 9345 and a target of 9280 or 9300 would give you 6:1 or 4:1
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #66,765
  • Sep 30, 2013 5:17am Sep 30, 2013 5:17am
Quoting SpartanTrade
{quote} Thanks for that. Well my guess was that very good pmi data was priced in and such a bad result surely would have seen it push lower. But as you stated, eyes and ears may very well be elsewhere for many awaiting bigger news.
Exactly
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #66,766
  • Edited 5:35am Sep 30, 2013 5:18am | Edited 5:35am
below 50 is contraction, above 50 is expanding. a lot of people have misconception about that. read more sources and find the ideal source, before jumping to conclusion, its good to analyze how each gives a different perspectives, take the one that always give certain price action from reading data and understand how that data affects price. as trader our role is only to follow the trend and get out in green or suffer minimal dd/losses and not to be overly immersed and biased whether price should be bull or bear.

i learnt that hard when aud plunged from 1.0150

data is not bad, it missed expected/consensus. depending on how each individual intepret, not to mention no matter how bad so called, eur data is, they still stay afloat. and perhaps asia lacks the seller in this region. not to forget that alot of previous shorts at this level of 0.9355-0.9280 were under-water from 0.95 and likely most people would want to get out of their under-water shorts and re-load higher or go with a long instead. Thus providing a likely support/relief from the trend.

Quote
China's HSBC Manufacturing PMI for the month of September - final reading - came at 50.2 vs 51.2 at the preliminary release and broadly unchanged from 50.1 in August.

price made a new low near 0.9289 before news, and rallied shortly yo 0.9312 where the price was send down to 0.9280. the hourly closing would already provided some hint, if meant to go down they would likely to close under support and make new lower lo.

0.9312 area was the news pressure from missing expectation. as mentioned, above the news pressure, price likely to go higher since the news couldn't make price close under the previous low it made but mere spike down and retraced back.

If data was below 50, its a likely sell hard for sure. shorts may look for lower hi if bearish bias. confirmation only if new lower lo is made below current low of 0.9280.

aud have 1 more Manufacturing PMI and retail sales tomorrow. which should be high impact with the combination of both.

when reading price level, its important to know that fundamental tend to be the catalyst/volatility to push price. Still technical are better indication to understand what's going on at the current level and moment. There are a few times i traded eur data before, price plunged to support level as if breaching, but failure to close. upon that, i would long again with minor sell stop or hedging below that spike. This give 2 direction probability then being biased. If sell is activated i am hedged safely and can look to short again since new lower lo has been made. While sell is not activated, my long is on a free ride.

every moment is a new thing, every data/event is a new thing, i don't recommend being too biased when no one knows whats going to happen later. there are always location to build long and short, and each have its validity and expiry moment.
  • #66,767
  • Sep 30, 2013 5:33am Sep 30, 2013 5:33am
If not for this shutdown thing and with a less than expected figure the aud would have gone down by at least 50 pips. So a miss of an expected figure is still bad regardless whether it is above 50.
the cautious seldom err....C
  • #66,768
  • Sep 30, 2013 5:39am Sep 30, 2013 5:39am
this was the analysis i did last year before aud made new low, and being fair to price means knowing where bear/bull may gain control of the market. when that time most people would keep longing. because they are affected by high lo and top / bottom. overbought/oversold.

just like now, ppl will keep shorting.
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  • #66,769
  • Sep 30, 2013 6:37am Sep 30, 2013 6:37am
L 9294
  • #66,770
  • Sep 30, 2013 7:20am Sep 30, 2013 7:20am
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  • #66,771
  • Sep 30, 2013 7:29am Sep 30, 2013 7:29am
Pretty much 5percent, if 9340 gets taken out we might see a nice rally here

http://prntscr.com/1udxkw
  • #66,772
  • Sep 30, 2013 7:30am Sep 30, 2013 7:30am
audusd buy
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THERE IS NO SYSTEM
  • #66,773
  • Sep 30, 2013 7:38am Sep 30, 2013 7:38am
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  • #66,774
  • Edited 10:46am Sep 30, 2013 8:38am | Edited 10:46am
maybe market is focused on white house issues ...so no matter what: USD is down
The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #66,775
  • Sep 30, 2013 9:03am Sep 30, 2013 9:03am
0.93 is my target
  • #66,776
  • Sep 30, 2013 9:15am Sep 30, 2013 9:15am
Quoting 5percent
{image}
there might be a trend line pressure at 0.9348 area.
  • #66,777
  • Sep 30, 2013 9:20am Sep 30, 2013 9:20am
Quoting 5percent
{quote} there might be a trend line pressure at 0.9348 area.
yes and 1H 100sma is right there too. So short term resistance is to be expected.
  • #66,778
  • Sep 30, 2013 9:40am Sep 30, 2013 9:40am
Quoting Mr.C
{quote} Hi guys. Sunday evening here in the USA and I'm back to chart for a quick scan before the upcoming week. But first of all - wish all a green week! My Aussie short is still ON. Price didn't reach any levels that I was waiting for on Friday so decided to keep the order alive. Looking at the charts the pair at the moment is in a zone between 0.9316 and 0.9285. While it is there I don't think I will make any decisions regarding my position close. Breaking below 0.9285 could get us to ~0.9245. Getting back to the ~0.9316 and breaking could call...
Aussie short that I was holding from September the 20th closed for +90 pips. Don't like the PA. Wish all a nice day!
Twitter: MrC_Forex ; Facebook: /pages/MrC-Forex/197693770247397
  • #66,779
  • Sep 30, 2013 10:53am Sep 30, 2013 10:53am
wow, this week started off weirdd as fucck... getting my hands burned with GBPJPY short, though the trade still in profit...
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #66,780
  • Sep 30, 2013 11:07am Sep 30, 2013 11:07am
AUD/USD:

US has made their own HH but no LL...pay attention...this should give you a big hint..
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