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AUD/USD

  • #66,721
  • Sep 29, 2013 8:40pm Sep 29, 2013 8:40pm
Quoting 5percent
hourly close/ china data will tell. meanwhile, take note previous support 0.9338 and 0.9327 on friday is resistance channel of support turn resistance channel 1. -> its not hard to be reclaim. Lower hi 0.9368 and 0.9375/8. Price reclaim over 0.9338 = price can retrace likely. As long price is kept under a lower hi than 0.9368 price is prone to re-test support or make lower lo. Until 2 level of lower hi is breached. preferably at 0.9402, where a daily would be a pin bar hammer likely. Else price is still sliding and trending gradually lower.
dont tell me pmi is out early
  • #66,722
  • Sep 29, 2013 8:46pm Sep 29, 2013 8:46pm
Down!
  • #66,723
  • Sep 29, 2013 8:48pm Sep 29, 2013 8:48pm
Quoting ibram.forex
Down!
down it is.
  • #66,724
  • Sep 29, 2013 8:49pm Sep 29, 2013 8:49pm
whats the news?
  • #66,725
  • Sep 29, 2013 8:49pm Sep 29, 2013 8:49pm
38.2 fib still holding for now, much bigger news on the agenda this week IMO

Japan tax hike, US govt shutdown, Italy political collapse
  • #66,726
  • Sep 29, 2013 8:50pm Sep 29, 2013 8:50pm
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} I actually think itllcome out mixed
I knew it.... HSBC PMI... i posted last week saying i was thinking it'll come out mixed... heck its came out MUCH WORSE than expected... and i think i was the only pessimist on the China Data?? LOL

i remember last week everyone on here were all hyped up by having expectations better than Prior but heck actual is what matters and actual is MUCH worse than expected... heck even worse than me thinking it'll be mixed lol
that proves to me yet again that my trade's direction are as good as gold... just the timing needs work on but its hard for me to get the timings correct...

Flash came out 51.2

so today's HSBC PMI

Prior 50.1
Expectation 51.2
Actual 50.2

THATS a HUGE MISS!!!!!
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #66,727
  • Sep 29, 2013 8:53pm Sep 29, 2013 8:53pm
Quoting edindzeko
38.2 fib still holding for now, much bigger news on the agenda this week IMO
I'm thinking that all other agendas are likely to TEMPORARILY push aussie down lower. I'm still very bullish but am not far away from conceding that we may be dipping to 9250 maybe lower this week. 92 area to me is a bargain buying opportunity but with thin volume during this session lets see where we go but that data was pretty bad
  • #66,728
  • Sep 29, 2013 8:58pm Sep 29, 2013 8:58pm
Quoting edindzeko
38.2 fib still holding for now, much bigger news on the agenda this week IMO Japan tax hike, US govt shutdown, Italy political collapse
U missed one more..Euro Surplus....Even though good for EUR...Germans are under panic mode....not good for the Bonds..
  • #66,729
  • Sep 29, 2013 8:59pm Sep 29, 2013 8:59pm
Quoting edindzeko
38.2 fib still holding for now, much bigger news on the agenda this week IMO Japan tax hike, US govt shutdown, Italy political collapse
Eden,

where is there news of a US shutdown except from 1 writer on FF? So, let me ask you guys.......where is the buy back in point on the aud/usd? I love this, to see how everyone who "wants" to be long is going to find a way to get back in with the odds on their side. For me. I am long already and have been for a good while although Ive taken half of my position off at this juncture. I have a stop order to get me back in on the aud/jpy at 91.11. Just a taste. This market is going to knock 90% of us out of our positions bith long and short with all the worry and news colliding together this week. Big opportunity for those who can 'smell" the exhaust pipes and go the other way. And dont be using a 15 min chart! -)

I just dont know about this USD shutdown. Why would the euro gap down and not up if that was a possibility?
  • #66,730
  • Sep 29, 2013 9:01pm Sep 29, 2013 9:01pm
have shorted at 9295 considering all the risk will be to the downside this week and especially after that atrocious data. Target 1 is 9250, if we get through that then 92 where I will buy back. Well fxtyrant I'm hoping for 92 also!!!
  • #66,731
  • Sep 29, 2013 9:02pm Sep 29, 2013 9:02pm
Quoting Silat50
{quote} Eden, where is there news of a US shutdown except from 1 writer on FF? So, let me ask you guys.......where is the buy back in point on the aud/usd? I love this, to see how everyone who "wants" to be long is going to find a way to get back in with the odds on their side. For me. I am long already and have been for a good while although Ive taken half of my position off at this juncture. I have a stop order to get me back in on the aud/jpy at 91.11. Just a taste. This market is going to knock 90% of us out of our positions bith long and...
Because Pass Shut down only causes a short term devaluation on the USD, but like 2011 government shut down gets resolved no matter what and everytime it get resolved, we get a huge rally... go look back at what happened back in 2011... it was the time when GBPUSD dipped from 1.58 to 1.4x and when EURUSD continued as low as 1.20 on USD strength.
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #66,732
  • Sep 29, 2013 9:04pm Sep 29, 2013 9:04pm
If you look at this chart you can see that A/U might be closing
the gap from 2 weeks ago.

What will happen after that may depend on forthcoming events ?

It doesn't matter to me (sadly) I'm not in the trade atm. Good luck
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gap.png Size: 41 KB
When the Joker is in the deck.. fear not and play it well
  • #66,733
  • Sep 29, 2013 9:05pm Sep 29, 2013 9:05pm
Quoting SpartanTrade
have shorted at 9295 considering all the risk will be to the downside this week and especially after that atrocious data. Target 1 is 9250, if we get through that then 92 where I will buy back. Well fxtyrant I'm hoping for 92 also!!!
Well dont worry. i know 92 will happen for sure... heck it might even go below 92... and if it does i will start looking for buy Opportunity if 92 breaks and us seeing a smoothing down at 90 like i said i need a trend change divergence to enter...

H4 chart when SMA144 is below SMA169, i will be looking to Long... which is kinda contradictory since 144 under 169 should be bearish... but what i realize is when market moved to change the Moving average trend.. its time to go the opposite direction when a divergence happen....
it'll be better if i showed you a chart.... but its kinda late....

0.92 is not my concern... my concern is whether AUDUSD can go MUCH MORE below 0.92 say down to 0.90 or 0.88 for me to long again like i did when we were down there...
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #66,734
  • Sep 29, 2013 9:11pm Sep 29, 2013 9:11pm
it seems holding well at .9280......time will tell
  • #66,735
  • Sep 29, 2013 9:15pm Sep 29, 2013 9:15pm
This area was a recent former resistance channel, may provide some bounce/support here for the meanwhile. a move above earlier new's drop at 0.9312 area will validate the bounce. I am seeing a bounce back to challenge former lower hi. or s t r of friday's level.
  • #66,736
  • Sep 29, 2013 9:16pm Sep 29, 2013 9:16pm
Works for me
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpaud_fridayAM.png Size: 103 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpaud_current.png Size: 106 KB
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #66,737
  • Sep 29, 2013 9:16pm Sep 29, 2013 9:16pm
Quoting Silat50
{quote} Eden, where is there news of a US shutdown except from 1 writer on FF? So, let me ask you guys.......where is the buy back in point on the aud/usd? I love this, to see how everyone who "wants" to be long is going to find a way to get back in with the odds on their side. For me. I am long already and have been for a good while although Ive taken half of my position off at this juncture. I have a stop order to get me back in on the aud/jpy at 91.11. Just a taste. This market is going to knock 90% of us out of our positions bith long and...
Bersculini
  • #66,738
  • Sep 29, 2013 9:42pm Sep 29, 2013 9:42pm
shorts taken for easy trade can get burned here
  • #66,739
  • Sep 29, 2013 9:42pm Sep 29, 2013 9:42pm
Quoting SpartanTrade
have shorted at 9295 considering all the risk will be to the downside this week and especially after that atrocious data. Target 1 is 9250, if we get through that then 92 where I will buy back. Well fxtyrant I'm hoping for 92 also!!!
Rant, you make a good point. Its very," VERY POSSIBLE THE BIG 11" will use all this upcoming commotion to buy back into US (and God willing AUD) pairs dirt cheap. Yes, I would love a dip back to 88-90.

I hope all of you guys agree with me that areversal is imminant at any hour. Why? If a newbie trader opened his charts right now, every one of them would go short the AUD and long the GBP and NZD. It would look like a clear cut trend is underway. But, we all know that when that happens it means something is extremely overbought/oversold and due for a reversal any minute. Im talking both hrly AND daily charts. The 4hr works for most of you but for me its too much information. 2 time frames are plenty. Anyway guys, have you all noticed that on the GBP/AUD hrly chart, there are 2 wicks waiting to stick you in the ass, on huge volume, small candles. one a DOJI, and this new candle is going red real fast.

Btw, nice chart as usual, pip master.
  • #66,740
  • Sep 29, 2013 11:08pm Sep 29, 2013 11:08pm
Would it help if those of us who use Fibs and/or pivots and s/r levels to all use the same charting package so we can really help each other see what we each see?



Inspiration from Pipmaster and Pip-anon's beautiful charts gave me the idea that if we who trade similarly and do not want too much junk cluttering our monitors, maybe we can all find a free or inexpensive charting platform besides MT4 to use to help each other in Forex, and even stocvks if you guys desire. We can even have a separate thread and call it :AUD/USD-2. At the very least it would allow us to look at others charts and learn when the markets are dead. We can even request that every member posts at least one chart a week of his best trade that week and tell us where he got in and out....and why! The people whpo already are professionals making more than they need each month will get bored quickly so they can kinda be volunteer moderators. But I doubt we will find any "market wizards" on this thread........................yet!!!! Now I need some suggestions on what is great cost effective software. And hopefully one that doesnt make posting charts a chore. Count me in! I myself am on the lookout for Fib charting that would draw the fibs automatically for me according to my criteria. If you look at the book Fibonacci trading by Carolyn Boroden, she uses a package that lets her put 3 time frames on one chart and she wont take a trade unless price action has bounced off or thru the 3 fib lines.....THREEE!!! And she is the best fib trader Ive ever seen. Im getting off subject but I think you guys can even go to her site and get a free trial of her newsletter. Her book for under 420 was the best thing I ever bought for my trading. It spoke to ME....anyway. So....lets get this second AUD/USD thread going folks!!!!!
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