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AUD/USD

  • #66,621
  • Sep 27, 2013 12:14pm Sep 27, 2013 12:14pm
I'm trading a real money account. I appreciate everyones input and look to gain valuable knowledge by following this thread. I am looking for good news out of China whether real or not. We all know they cook the books...lol Also the debt ceiling i think will weight on the dollar until it is resolved which it will be sooner or later. I'm thinking a short rally here is in place and my fundamentals are calling for .9677 but i don't think we will see that. My long range charts show .8743
  • #66,622
  • Sep 27, 2013 12:30pm Sep 27, 2013 12:30pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Yes that's quite possible. The question is, are you willing to put money on it? I'm not. Instead I'll trade the outcome.
I am, for me where the AUDUSD is at, gives me value to continue holding my audusd shorts regardless of the outcome on sunday
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #66,623
  • Sep 27, 2013 12:51pm Sep 27, 2013 12:51pm
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} I am, for me where the AUDUSD is at, gives me value to continue holding my audusd shorts regardless of the outcome on sunday

do you have a 100-200 pip cushion??? Just asking.
  • #66,624
  • Sep 27, 2013 1:09pm Sep 27, 2013 1:09pm
Quoting dpaulinla
{quote} do you have a 100-200 pip cushion??? Just asking.

look at my trade list, you can see how wide my tp and sl are.... its currency pair dependent.... and also the entry dependent.
but good god this month has been an excruciatingly low movement month.... fomc was the focus and after that market just died off....
i wish next month we have a better flow cuz this month im not making as much as i hoped for...
last month i ws 33% gain thsi month ~15% :/
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #66,625
  • Sep 27, 2013 1:15pm Sep 27, 2013 1:15pm
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} look at my trade list, you can see how wide my tp and sl are.... its currency pair dependent.... and also the entry dependent. but good god this month has been an excruciatingly low movement month.... fomc was the focus and after that market just died off.... i wish next month we have a better flow cuz this month im not making as much as i hoped for... last month i ws 33% gain thsi month ~15% :/
People don't get that. It's crazy how some people trade at all.

You wouldn't but the same SL/TP on GBPJPY as you do USDCHF, at least not successfully. Geppy has been rather tame recently, but few months back it would have 250-400 pip daily ranges compared to USDCHF 70 or 80
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #66,626
  • Sep 27, 2013 1:21pm Sep 27, 2013 1:21pm
Quoting Pip Anon
{quote} People don't get that. It's crazy how some people trade at all. You wouldn't but the same SL/TP on GBPJPY as you do USDCHF, at least not successfully. Geppy has been rather tame recently, but few months back it would have 250-400 pip daily ranges compared to USDCHF 70 or 80
people dont get what? the fact i have a wide maybe say 400 pip stop loss and 400 tp on GBPJPY?? well thats how i trade... i dont trade risk returns, i trade my system's profitablity% and as long as my trades are 50% profitability, i make wins more than i make loss, meaning i hit Tp more than i hit SL.... hence im profitable....
thats how i trade...im not scalpers who enter in and aim for 20 pip take profit and cover as soon as its in profit.... very often you get profits closed prematurely and friggin commission already render me impossible to just profit wiht 1 pip considering i've also go spread to consider... so really i need big pip profits....
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #66,627
  • Sep 27, 2013 1:35pm Sep 27, 2013 1:35pm
Looking for a sell-off in euro soon
the cautious seldom err....C
  • #66,628
  • Sep 27, 2013 1:36pm Sep 27, 2013 1:36pm
Quoting pips29
Looking for a sell-off in euro soon
I'm already in today at 3550 and Wednesday at 3515, so I'm all set.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #66,629
  • Sep 27, 2013 1:40pm Sep 27, 2013 1:40pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} I'm already in today at 3550 and Wednesday at 3515, so I'm all set.
might be a little too early... dont have a signal to Short EURUSD nor Long USDCHF yet.... but i do see one potentially building in the next few days.....
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #66,630
  • Sep 27, 2013 1:44pm Sep 27, 2013 1:44pm
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} might be a little too early... dont have a signal to Short EURUSD nor Long USDCHF yet.... but i do see one potentially building in the next few days.....
Yeah I know, but this is one of the things I do. I slowly build into a position.
The two trades I already have make up for only 20% of a total position.
The rest will either be averaged in on further highs, or scaled in on pullbacks as price falls.
It works well for me. I just use EW analysis, traditional PA and momentum/divergence indies to guide me once I believe that we are in a topping or bottoming process.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #66,631
  • Sep 27, 2013 1:59pm Sep 27, 2013 1:59pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Yeah I know, but this is one of the things I do. I slowly build into a position. The two trades I already have make up for only 20% of a total position. The rest will either be averaged in on further highs, or scaled in on pullbacks as price falls. It works well for me. I just use EW analysis, traditional PA and momentum/divergence indies to guide me once I believe that we are in a topping or bottoming process.
but yes i agree its looks toppy on the EU, but i need a usable signal to go short on it... and so far i still dont have one yet...
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #66,632
  • Sep 27, 2013 2:00pm Sep 27, 2013 2:00pm
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} people dont get what? the fact i have a wide maybe say 400 pip stop loss and 400 tp on GBPJPY?? well thats how i trade... i dont trade risk returns, i trade my system's profitablity% and as long as my trades are 50% profitability, i make wins more than i make loss, meaning i hit Tp more than i hit SL.... hence im profitable.... thats how i trade...im not scalpers who enter in and aim for 20 pip take profit and cover as soon as its in profit.... very often you get profits closed prematurely and friggin commission already render me impossible...
Holy crap lol. Stop being so defensive and read what I wrote. Perhaps, on the second try, you will see that many try to conform SL for every pair when not every pair trades the same.

GBPJPY has a 10-wk volatility of 142, EURUSD is 78. GBPUSD has double the range, so why would anyone place the same SL and expect stellar results. Put a 20 pip SL on GBPJPY and you could get stopped out in minutes.
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #66,633
  • Sep 27, 2013 2:01pm Sep 27, 2013 2:01pm
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} might be a little too early... dont have a signal to Short EURUSD nor Long USDCHF yet.... but i do see one potentially building in the next few days.....
Double top at 3555/1.13FE; inmediate support is 3514 and reversal level should be around 3470

Just something to keep in mind for monday morning

http://prntscr.com/1ttfdw
  • #66,634
  • Sep 27, 2013 2:04pm Sep 27, 2013 2:04pm
already in on both.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd H1.png Size: 69 KB
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: pic 1.png Size: 54 KB
the cautious seldom err....C
  • #66,635
  • Sep 27, 2013 2:05pm Sep 27, 2013 2:05pm
Quoting Pip Anon
{quote} Holy crap lol. Stop being so defensive and read what I wrote. Perhaps, on the second try, you will see that many try to conform SL for every pair when not every pair trades the same. GBPJPY has a 10-wk volatility of 142, EURUSD is 78. GBPUSD has double the range, so why would anyone place the same SL and expect stellar results. Put a 20 pip SL on GBPJPY and you could get stopped out in minutes.
oh... now i get what you mean... but isnt that basic knowledge that the beast GBPJPY moves twice as much as the its counterpart the GBPUSD? hence the logical would be if you use 20 pip SL for GBPUSD you should atleast think about doubling it for GBPJPY 40 pips? sth like that??
but good god its gona take about the same amount of time for GBPUSD to hit a 20 pip sl as a GBPJPY to hit a 40 pip stop loss.... so maybe.... here goes a lesson of money management... IF and IF GBPJPY moves twice as much as the GBPUSD...


This is how i would trade.

GBPUSD
Entry for TP 100 pips and SL 100 pips
Lot size 1 lot

GBPJPY
Entry for TP 200 pips and SL 200 pips
Lot size 0.5 lot

See what i did there with shrining the lot size? for bigger movements? thats a good practice of money management to prevent getting too scared by a volatile pair like GBPJPY.
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #66,636
  • Sep 27, 2013 2:06pm Sep 27, 2013 2:06pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} I'm already in today at 3550 and Wednesday at 3515, so I'm all set.
Does fundamentals support EURUSD sell-off? If Yes which ones?
There is a winner and a loser, nothing in between.
  • #66,637
  • Sep 27, 2013 2:08pm Sep 27, 2013 2:08pm
Quoting buytosell
{quote} Does fundamentals support EURUSD sell-off? If Yes which ones?
actually fudamentals support a sell off in all USD related pairs.... EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, NZDUSD fall and USDCAD, USDCHF, USDJPY rise.

cuz dollar strength is gona come back after the whole debt ceiling matter....
and Tapering would accelerate the dollar strength.
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #66,638
  • Sep 27, 2013 2:15pm Sep 27, 2013 2:15pm
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} actually fudamentals support a sell off in all USD related pairs.... EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, NZDUSD fall and USDCAD, USDCHF, USDJPY rise. cuz dollar strength is gona come back after the whole debt ceiling matter.... and Tapering would accelerate the dollar strength.
Thanks for answering that question. My answer would have been very similar, although probably would have gone into too much detail. I tend to do that. LOL
I prefer your short and sweet response.

But if you want to see my detailed response along with an ensuing debate with a hard nosed USD bear, go here >>> http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php...71#post6989707
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #66,639
  • Sep 27, 2013 2:20pm Sep 27, 2013 2:20pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Thanks for answering that question. My answer would have been very similar, although probably would have gone into too much detail. I tend to do that. LOL I prefer your short and sweet response.
yea i do my best to filter out information so people have a clear answer....
if people want a more detailed answer.
i have one right here they can click on to understand why Dollar strength is still in play.
http://www.babypips.com/blogs/pipono...-deadline.html
2011 US debt ceiling talks
DXY was at ~74
2013 USD debt ceiling talks
DXY is now at ~ 80...
thats a Higher low on the DXY
doesnt higher low suggest a trending up on DXY?

DXY is the Dollar Index incase some of you didnt know.
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #66,640
  • Sep 27, 2013 2:29pm Sep 27, 2013 2:29pm
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} oh... now i get what you mean... but isnt that basic knowledge that the beast GBPJPY moves twice as much as the its counterpart the GBPUSD? hence the logical would be if you use 20 pip SL for GBPUSD you should atleast think about doubling it for GBPJPY 40 pips? sth like that?? but good god its gona take about the same amount of time for GBPUSD to hit a 20 pip sl as a GBPJPY to hit a 40 pip stop loss.... so maybe.... here goes a lesson of money management... IF and IF GBPJPY moves twice as much as the GBPUSD... This...
Unfortunately not. You clearly know what you're doing, I was mainly talking to those who don't while using your post as a reference
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
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