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  • #66,601
  • Sep 27, 2013 8:24am Sep 27, 2013 8:24am
Quoting 5percent
i think weekly and monthly may close very near to 0.9320/40. below 0.9280, bear in control.
Which is exactly why I have called for a resumption of the upward correction between 9320 and 9280
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #66,602
  • Sep 27, 2013 8:34am Sep 27, 2013 8:34am
Quoting 5percent
i think weekly and monthly may close very near to 0.9320/40. below 0.9280, bear in control.
.9320. I have this line in my chart too. Looks like a important support and resistance line.

http://i1116.photobucket.com/albums/...ps8fa8af86.jpg
The true fact is market doesn't care, risk mgt is important.
  • #66,603
  • Sep 27, 2013 8:44am Sep 27, 2013 8:44am
If price can hold in this area , wave 5 is complete
The More You Learn, The More You Earn.....
  • #66,604
  • Sep 27, 2013 8:47am Sep 27, 2013 8:47am
Quoting forexalien
If price can hold in this area , wave 5 is complete
Can illustrate? Pls give me a chance to learn.
The true fact is market doesn't care, risk mgt is important.
  • #66,605
  • Sep 27, 2013 8:47am Sep 27, 2013 8:47am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Which is exactly why I have called for a resumption of the upward correction between 9320 and 9280
often when price breaks a critical level of support/resistance, and shoot up or down, it may retrace, to break out point, look like it did.

I will still be opened with buy stop above current's hi on aud usd above that 0.95 level, if it gets there its a real bullish train for further momentum upwards.

after the break they may like to glue very closely to that level, suggest indecision if a breakout is in place. So it will look like a real shoot up on the weekly with a bearish look on the current week closing just at that level.


4 scenarios. each have a different bias.
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  • #66,606
  • Sep 27, 2013 8:52am Sep 27, 2013 8:52am
Quoting 5percent
{quote} often when price breaks a critical level of support/resistance, and shoot up or down, it may retrace, to break out point, look like it did. I will still be opened with buy stop above current's hi on aud usd above that 0.95 level, if it gets there its a real bullish train for further momentum upwards. after the break they may like to clue very closely to that level, suggest indecision if a breakout is in place. So it will look like a real shoot up on the weekly with a bearish look on the current week closing just at that level. 4 scenarios....
based on.

i know many people may disagree with me, but i trade what i see. and react accordingly.

losses are part of the game, there's bull and bear opportunities.

the daily close, weekly and monthly close will decide.

i have further buy stops above 0.9402 also, to catch pull back completion and after it destroy 2 levels lower hi for retracement higher.
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  • #66,607
  • Sep 27, 2013 9:00am Sep 27, 2013 9:00am
Quoting 5percent
{quote} my uj hit my estimated target. on a larger tf, uj may hit 98.10/20 area again based on estimated target. that's if yesterday us low at 98.50 is breached, where sell stop below 98.48 will be there to catch the move. Long on aud is BE. My entry may be always wrong, because i won't know what may happen later on. But at least i try to get into a position that will be green with the upcoming trend and have more chance to utilize trading management like BE, trailing stops etc. if the price go up and then down, of course i can always sell later....
this is why i prefer trading in the flow of trend, giving me ample chance to use be and trailing management. i don't like to seat in a position and go from red to green and green to red. hope and pray and speculation is not what i trade.

ask any chief dealer from the banks, they will tell you, follow the freaking fat money every now and then.

estimated target is based on consolidation of range. the bigger the range, the better the breakout.
  • #66,608
  • Sep 27, 2013 9:19am Sep 27, 2013 9:19am
Quoting 5percent
{quote} this is why i prefer trading in the flow of trend, giving me ample chance to use be and trailing management. i don't like to seat in a position and go from red to green and green to red. hope and pray and speculation is not what i trade. ask any chief dealer from the banks, they will tell you, follow the freaking fat money every now and then. estimated target is based on consolidation of range. the bigger the range, the better the breakout.
How do you identify the flow? Based on weekly chart or day chart? Can share your trailing management style?

I hope to learn.
The true fact is market doesn't care, risk mgt is important.
  • #66,609
  • Sep 27, 2013 9:29am Sep 27, 2013 9:29am
Quoting Ssm
{quote} How do you identify the flow? Based on weekly chart or day chart? Can share your trailing management style? I hope to learn.
trailing management have a few factors.

1 - When a position is taken, there should be a risk + cost analysis and a target.
[ Risk + cost ] measure the risk exposure and dollar per se to you and how much you willing to risk to take that bet of trade moving in favor of u. You must make sure every trade is made based on that initial plan and trading system/idea. You should not let it influence your next trades or set up.


2 - Time factor
Your trading is based on which time frame? You need to understand, if its based on 1 hour, it should only be viable for a few hours, and sessions overlapping is dangerous as new events and volatility will occur. If its a minute 5 when price moved in my favor upon activation, you might want to price in just a few candles later. Of course in the asia, your 5 min is actually no difference as price moved too slow, but in the europe/us session volatility may be bigger, and sometimes 1 5 minute candles can easily measure 10-20 pips.

3 - You also need to understand that 1 minute, 5 minute, daily and weekly are the same. Its only when price is at that level does it make sense to you on the hold or break level.

4 - Eliminating your risk or reducing
A set up may have an initial 20 pips stop loss and a 40 pips target. But as price moved higher in favor for you, u might want to find the last existing support if you long and last existing pull back failure if you short. For such, at 0-0 r+c = 20 , t = 40.

1 hour later, its + 25, you might reduce your r + c to BE or even move to that timeframe of yours, if you bull, put below last bull, if you short put below as bear. Because if price reclaimed back or kill that bear, its going to go up, if it kill that bull its going to go down. -KISS

Meaning to say, initially your trading idea was using 20 pip stop loss, but because as trade progress, u might move that stop loss to the level you know if crossed your trade is more or less invalid, don't seat on it anymore. For eg, 20 pip stop loss can become 5 pips stop loss, while you are + 30 on the run. This way you reduce your risk gradually and can use the remaining bullets for other set up.

5 - Follow the mother candle - MARABUZO for direction. If mother candle breaks that level of r/s, u must understand, u can only counter after winning that fat mother candle, whatever you are doing by going against is just retracement.

every trader is unique, and different, what works for me, may not work for you. Because its really dependable on yourself.

Personality, psychology, experience and emotions -> This 4 factors will influence your every move.
Quote
One famous quote -> I will turn bullish bias when my buy stop is activated, i will sell like crazy after my trailing stops is hit.
  • #66,610
  • Sep 27, 2013 9:51am Sep 27, 2013 9:51am
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} Still doubting my promises? market rewards those whom are patient enough
Let them doubt. You're analysis will be proof enough. I stopped a long time ago from trying to bother with that stuff. That a lot of times I just post and leave lol. I called 1.3414 the top on eu the first time it hit and no one believed me. Then it hit 1.275 lol. Ppl w always disagree about the analysis buy can't disagree with the performance
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #66,611
  • Sep 27, 2013 10:16am Sep 27, 2013 10:16am
Quoting Mr.C
{quote} Good morning traders. Aussie short is running with +60 pips and TP set @ 0,9245. Will most likely stay aside today. Wish all a green day!

Good day traders. Hope you're keeping better than I am. I'm having flu and staying in bed with lemon tea and medicine. No new calls today but need to monitor AUD/USD that is now floating with 105 pips profit. Might be closing it today. As always - wish all a green day!
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Twitter: MrC_Forex ; Facebook: /pages/MrC-Forex/197693770247397
  • #66,612
  • Sep 27, 2013 10:20am Sep 27, 2013 10:20am
Quoting Pip Anon
{quote} Let them doubt. You're analysis will be proof enough. I stopped a long time ago from trying to bother with that stuff. That a lot of times I just post and leave lol. I called 1.3414 the top on eu the first time it hit and no one believed me. Then it hit 1.275 lol. Ppl w always disagree about the analysis buy can't disagree with the performance
Exactly.
Normally those who criticize others analysis are nowhere to be found when the analysis turns out to be correct.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #66,613
  • Sep 27, 2013 11:19am Sep 27, 2013 11:19am
Quoting ffleo
hello where is next month pivot located for aussie? Im telling you that aussie will try to touch next month pivot before next month end.
aussie might bounce around next month pivot. I took off a large part of my shorts already. will add back at rallies.

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ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #66,614
  • Sep 27, 2013 11:27am Sep 27, 2013 11:27am
Quoting ffleo
{quote} aussie might bounce around next month pivot. I took off a large part of my shorts already. will add back at rallies. {image}
Probably a good idea. China Mfg PMI will be released Sunday night (Monday morning if you're in Asia).
I expect it to be positive and invoke a rally. Of course it could go the other way. I'm just saying what I expect.
Regardless, best not to be leveraged either way at the time.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #66,615
  • Sep 27, 2013 11:28am Sep 27, 2013 11:28am
In conclusion, my call for support at 9320 seems to be coming true.
Let's see if it holds and completes the expected wave 5 from these levels.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #66,616
  • Sep 27, 2013 11:32am Sep 27, 2013 11:32am
Quoting PipTrapper
In conclusion, my call for support at 9320 seems to be coming true. Let's see if it holds and completes the expected wave 5 from these levels.


And what are your predictions Pip Trapper??? A rally before down past 90?
  • #66,617
  • Sep 27, 2013 11:44am Sep 27, 2013 11:44am
Quoting dpaulinla
{quote} And what are your predictions Pip Trapper??? A rally before down past 90?
Well according to my EW count, we had a wave 3 up to 0.9527 and now this down move is an abc wave 4.
Therefore up should give us at minimum a truncated wave 5. Now truncated wave 5 can be anywhere from 78.6% to 100% of wave 4. A normal wave 5 is normally 61.8% extension of wave 3.
So, in the case of a truncated wave 5, minimum up should be 0.9480 area
Normal wave 5 should take us as high as 0.9605 area (give or take 20 pips)

After that, we head down to complete the much larger 5th wave of the impulse that started at 1.0580

A/U Daily
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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #66,618
  • Sep 27, 2013 11:57am Sep 27, 2013 11:57am
Have a good weekend everyone!
  • #66,619
  • Sep 27, 2013 11:58am Sep 27, 2013 11:58am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Probably a good idea. China Mfg PMI will be released Sunday night (Monday morning if you're in Asia). I expect it to be positive and invoke a rally. Of course it could go the other way. I'm just saying what I expect. Regardless, best not to be leveraged either way at the time.
I actually think itllcome out mixed
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #66,620
  • Sep 27, 2013 12:06pm Sep 27, 2013 12:06pm
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} I actually think itllcome out mixed
Yes that's quite possible. The question is, are you willing to put money on it? I'm not. Instead I'll trade the outcome.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
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