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AUD/USD

  • #66,101
  • Sep 23, 2013 10:36am Sep 23, 2013 10:36am
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} talk about sense of humor on AUD... EURAUD dropped 150 pip from candle open heck the High IS the open... and im not even concerned....
Not trying to sound like a dick, just asking honestly... at what point would you be concerned for a long EA? I have no trades on it now but looking to get short
  • #66,102
  • Edited 11:03am Sep 23, 2013 10:49am | Edited 11:03am
Quoting edindzeko
{quote} Not trying to sound like a dick, just asking honestly... at what point would you be concerned for a long EA? I have no trades on it now but looking to get short
A close under 1.42, that will worry me.
besides.... Im a bit more worried bout you shorting after this big drop
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #66,103
  • Sep 23, 2013 11:48am Sep 23, 2013 11:48am
Attached Image
  • #66,104
  • Sep 23, 2013 11:59am Sep 23, 2013 11:59am
Quoting 2+2=4ex
{image}
Soooo ur suggesting that its time to get shorting??
i dint really take retail accounts into consideration
but whats your take?
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #66,105
  • Sep 23, 2013 12:11pm Sep 23, 2013 12:11pm
FF has it at pretty much evens stevens...
IGIndex publish position ratios (but I no longer have an account with them)...anybody?
Attached Image
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #66,106
  • Sep 23, 2013 12:18pm Sep 23, 2013 12:18pm
Quoting Boy Wonder
FF has it at pretty much evens stevens... IGIndex publish position ratios (but I no longer have an account with them)...anybody? {image}
yea buddy, forexfactory's is a smaller sample size limited to tradders who link their accounts on forexfactory.

because im sure the market is not trading AUDUSD at a total of 40 lots in aaggregte...

Oanda has a bigger sample size as they are a broker which can compile all their client position and show us an aggregte without disclosing individual client's positions.
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #66,107
  • Sep 23, 2013 12:19pm Sep 23, 2013 12:19pm
Quoting Boy Wonder
FF has it at pretty much evens stevens... IGIndex publish position ratios (but I no longer have an account with them)...anybody? {image}
I would put much more weight on the Oanda stats as it is a much bigger sample rate.
The FF numbers are based on 200 traders or so whilst Oanda is based on several thousand or more.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #66,108
  • Sep 23, 2013 12:24pm Sep 23, 2013 12:24pm
Fair enough guys; good points. I refer to the oanda data myself from time to time.
The reason why I mentioned the FF stats is:
a) they're probably very representative of retail, even though it's a small sample size
b) we implicitly are trusting an image that oanda put up on their website. We have no idea how the data is calculated, how often, whether it's up-to-date, or even accurate (intentionally or otherwise). I trust nobody in this game, and I would just appreciate other sources of positioning, rather than relying wholly and implicitly on a jpeg that oanda sticks on their website. But I don't know where else such information is published. Any new sources are therefore welcome.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #66,109
  • Sep 23, 2013 12:40pm Sep 23, 2013 12:40pm
Quoting Boy Wonder
Fair enough guys; good points. I refer to the oanda data myself from time to time. The reason why I mentioned the FF stats is: a) they're probably very representative of retail, even though it's a small sample size b) we implicitly are trusting an image that oanda put up on their website. We have no idea how the data is calculated, how often, whether it's up-to-date, or even accurate (intentionally or otherwise). I trust nobody in this game, and I would just appreciate other sources of positioning, rather than relying wholly and implicitly on a...
Take your pick

http://singulorum001.blogspot.de/p/sentiment.html
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #66,110
  • Sep 23, 2013 12:47pm Sep 23, 2013 12:47pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Take your pick http://singulorum001.blogspot.de/p/sentiment.html
Nice one, thanks
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #66,111
  • Sep 23, 2013 12:53pm Sep 23, 2013 12:53pm
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} yea buddy, forexfactory's is a smaller sample size limited to tradders who link their accounts on forexfactory. because im sure the market is not trading AUDUSD at a total of 40 lots in aaggregte... Oanda has a bigger sample size as they are a broker which can compile all their client position and show us an aggregte without disclosing individual client's positions.
Even so I think that is a small fraction of the total market from everyone to .01 to lots. Isn't that just Oanada's volume? I don't know how big they are, but the 60% long on AUDUSD representing retail traders could equal 100-200 lots for all we know.

I have seen 50-75 lots single orders being pushed through my broker at a given time.
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #66,112
  • Sep 23, 2013 1:12pm Sep 23, 2013 1:12pm
I wont pay too much attention to how retail traders are positioned. Retail positions are hunted, therefore making market noises. To use them as a market sentiment indicator? No.
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #66,113
  • Sep 23, 2013 1:41pm Sep 23, 2013 1:41pm
Quoting ffleo
I wont pay too much attention to how retail traders are positioned. Retail positions are hunted, therefore making market noises. To use them as a market sentiment indicator? No.
I think it would be impossible. If anything look at the future options. That market can be thin, but I had some nice strategies using impl. volatility
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #66,114
  • Sep 23, 2013 2:51pm Sep 23, 2013 2:51pm
I think you've got to separate two aspects of this "retail positioning" thing:
1) yeah, retail positions are hunted, but more likely
2) retail activity is probably not all that different to a lot of non-retail activity.

What I'm saying is, there are an awful lot of "professionals" out there, who I imagine are crap, or at best, mediocre, at what they do. I call them professionals in the strict sense that they get paid to do what they do; they are salaried and are paid whether their "bets" pay off or not. But I seriously doubt that many of them are better than average traders. And the average trader is pretty much a disaster: you've pretty much got to blow 3 accounts before you've really learnt this game.
Retail activity cannot be the tail that wags the dog. It's just too small. I think more likely, retail activity is a guide to a large amount of non-retail activity. If retail is getting suckered in, a large number of "pros" are probably getting suckered in as well. The fact that so few fund managers can outperform the market is a testament to this. In fact, IIRC the vast majority of fund managers can't even keep up with the market.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #66,115
  • Sep 23, 2013 3:04pm Sep 23, 2013 3:04pm
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} I don't trade hidden bullish divergences they are not as reliable as classical for me

May be it's debatable. I have analyzed my trades previously and I found out that 70% were based on divergence and 90% of the 70% were successful. So for me divergence seems reliable. I may analyze my trades based on the type of divergence in a later time.
  • #66,116
  • Sep 23, 2013 3:10pm Sep 23, 2013 3:10pm
I Know This Is Not A Thred To disscuss About Silver But I need Help I have Invested my whole 2 Months Salary In silver Can please someone Enlighten Me ABout What Are Your Views On The Investment I Am Going to Keep it Maximum Till The Year Ending Please Any opinion Will be Helpful To me
  • #66,117
  • Sep 23, 2013 5:40pm Sep 23, 2013 5:40pm
09/24 Market:
Corrective dips should ideally halt near 0.9399 or 0.9380 for one more thrust upwards towards 0.9444 - 0.9470 area or 0.9509 in extention. Fall below 0.9328 puts it back on a downward path.
Simple is powerful all the time.
  • #66,118
  • Sep 23, 2013 5:48pm Sep 23, 2013 5:48pm
RiverTrader
Looking at the charts, daily it closed over resistance and stayed there. Technically it seems it should go up before going down imho... yet it seems to be pushed down heavily every times it tries going up a little
  • #66,119
  • Sep 23, 2013 6:04pm Sep 23, 2013 6:04pm
Quoting AnveshS
I Know This Is Not A Thred To disscuss About Silver But I need Help I have Invested my whole 2 Months Salary In silver Can please someone Enlighten Me ABout What Are Your Views On The Investment I Am Going to Keep it Maximum Till The Year Ending Please Any opinion Will be Helpful To me
My 2 cents,

If you have to get an Idea after investing this big money (2 months of your salary), it means you were not sure why you entered the trade. I can see you don't have a definite plan of stop loss, Target-1 , Target-2.

I will recommend you to go to www.babypips.com, they have a very good course. Finish all the grades and come back to trade.

The post here are just to give us an idea what others are thinking.

There are lot of crazy posts here and when you are not sure what u r doing it will confuse you more.

Follow good traders like Alien, Pip Anon, Fxgrant, Edindseko, Pip Trader etc.

If you do this and if you don't make money that's ok.... one day you will appreciate me.

Wish you all the best.
Come back and make more money with your skills.

KC.
  • #66,120
  • Sep 23, 2013 6:27pm Sep 23, 2013 6:27pm
Quoting KCV
{quote} My 2 cents, If you have to get an Idea after investing this big money (2 months of your salary), it means you were not sure why you entered the trade. I can see you don't have a definite plan of stop loss, Target-1 , Target-2. I will recommend you to go to www.babypips.com, they have a very good course. Finish all the grades and come back to trade. The post here are just to give us an idea what others are thinking. There are lot of crazy posts here and when you are not sure what u r doing it will confuse...
I don't know why people do that. Granted, at some point everyone is new. Nevertheless, I still remember my first investment: silver wheaton, oddly enough a silver minor. I did 30 hours combing through financial statements alone. I bought at $3 in 2008, sold for $15, $26.xx and closed full position in the $30s.

A good knowledge base is always beneficial, but the market is the ultimate educator for sure. However!!!! you should always know why your are trading that position, what your targets are and where you plan to exit even on scalps (probably more so).

However, I am still bearish on metals. I am still holding my 1038 target of gold by end of Q1 2014. Silver is likely to head back $18, but can't say $27 is not possible at least on the weekly. Although, severe catalysts are needed IMO.
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When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
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