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  • #1,281
  • Sep 21, 2013 8:14am Sep 21, 2013 8:14am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} I have been spread all over USO, with Oct 19 $34 puts, $40 calls, cheapo $43 calls, and have been selling the near term puts, scored on $37 puts sold for today's expiry, and will be looking to do that again next week for Oct 19 expiry if I can. The whole thing is a mess but I will probably make money on it as long as oil doesn't fall too far...
Crude looks very heavy to me; at some point it'll meet that rising 200DMA, currently at 98 and change. So a drop to 100 in the near term is doable. I'm short calls; lightened up a bit going into the weekend because I want to be able to sell more calls on any spike but I'm still short 109s. Short of another chemical weapon attack I can't see anything pushing crude back up; equities are ready to give it up and crude is slightly ahead of equities.

If it falls "too far", why worry; it's highly unlikely to crack that 200DMA so you can just roll out, or take assignment and sell OTM calls against the assignment. This is crude we're talking about; nearly always if you're going to get it wrong, it's better to be short puts on a drop than short calls on a rise. Of course that wouldn't work always but as a rule of thumb, it's probably not that bad.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #1,282
  • Sep 23, 2013 12:15pm Sep 23, 2013 12:15pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} damage control, will look to sell the Oct 19 $41 ($0.35) or $41.50 ($0.45) puts, looking for a little more EEM pullback tomorrow
sold EEM Oct 19 $40.50 puts @ $0.40.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #1,283
  • Sep 23, 2013 12:29pm Sep 23, 2013 12:29pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} I have been spread all over USO, with Oct 19 $34 puts, $40 calls, cheapo $43 calls, and have been selling the near term puts, scored on $37 puts sold for today's expiry, and will be looking to do that again next week for Oct 19 expiry if I can. The whole thing is a mess but I will probably make money on it as long as oil doesn't fall too far...
USO dropping, looking to sell Oct 19 $34 puts, waiting for a good price while oil falls. May be dicey, buzz is that Libya production is ramping back up, so crude prices may have a ways to drop. But if USD weakness can stay in effect crude price will be supported. No hurry....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #1,284
  • Sep 23, 2013 12:32pm Sep 23, 2013 12:32pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} USO dropping, looking to sell Oct 19 $34 puts, waiting for a good price while oil falls. May be dicey, buzz is that Libya production is ramping back up, so crude prices may have a ways to drop. But if USD weakness can stay in effect crude price will be supported. No hurry....
yep, my USO calls doing ok, i'll close if we hit 35.50 - 36
  • #1,285
  • Sep 23, 2013 12:34pm Sep 23, 2013 12:34pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} USO dropping, looking to sell Oct 19 $34 puts, waiting for a good price while oil falls. May be dicey, buzz is that Libya production is ramping back up, so crude prices may have a ways to drop. But if USD weakness can stay in effect crude price will be supported. No hurry....
if your watching for a good price keep a eye on the implied volatilty to give you a heads up when the time is right to sell the puts, 34 puts are a good sell
  • #1,286
  • Sep 23, 2013 12:37pm Sep 23, 2013 12:37pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} sold EEM Oct 19 $40.50 puts @ $0.40.
You're expecting the drop to stop here then?
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #1,287
  • Sep 23, 2013 12:59pm Sep 23, 2013 12:59pm
Quoting Boy Wonder
{quote} You're expecting the drop to stop here then?
I am expecting em equities (especially east asian) to outperform US equities (witness today, for instance), and I am expecting the latter to consolidate & maybe even rise, as well - tf Q4.

Another em etf to play I am looking at FXI, might do a Nov strangle $40.50/$36.50 ~ ($0.50/$0.57) - with a little overweight long call....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #1,288
  • Sep 23, 2013 2:47pm Sep 23, 2013 2:47pm
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-0...china-pmi.html

Triple Witching

"When the quarterly expiration process known as triple witching occurs in September, the following week has resulted in losses 68 percent of the time for the S&P 500 since equity index futures were created in 1982, according to a study by Curry. In the past 10 years, the S&P 500 has fallen 80 percent of the time in the week after September triple witching, averaging a decline of 1.9 percent, the data show."
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #1,289
  • Sep 23, 2013 3:55pm Sep 23, 2013 3:55pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} I am expecting em equities (especially east asian) to outperform US equities (witness today, for instance), and I am expecting the latter to consolidate & maybe even rise, as well - tf Q4. Another em etf to play I am looking at FXI, might do a Nov strangle $40.50/$36.50 ~ ($0.50/$0.57) - with a little overweight long call....
Fair enough. I'm short ES calls, short CL (wish I hadn't lightened up a bit late Friday but oh well); crude has a tendency to lead equities (just an unscientific observation). Equity shorts are at 7 year lows (think I read earlier somewhere) etc etc. It's all set-up in my opinion for something of a pull-back, perhaps to those long-neglected 200DMAs. SPX I would imagine is going to struggle to close much above 1700 on the year; end of the year is 3 1/2 months away. In that 3 1/2 months the markets need to go somewhere; they could go up to 1750 then down but I think they'll go down first perhaps to the 200DMAs then back up.

/tealeaves
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #1,290
  • Sep 23, 2013 5:34pm Sep 23, 2013 5:34pm
Quoting Boy Wonder
{quote} /tealeaves
well, good luck.I have been changing my mo towards more non-directional trading and that may serve well in coming months if we can get some volatility.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #1,291
  • Sep 25, 2013 7:09pm Sep 25, 2013 7:09pm
Equities looking poised for a drop. 5 little red candles in a row, sets up for a decent drop maybe tomorrow or Friday.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #1,292
  • Sep 25, 2013 10:44pm Sep 25, 2013 10:44pm
Quoting Boy Wonder
Equities looking poised for a drop. 5 little red candles in a row, sets up for a decent drop maybe tomorrow or Friday.
hope you are right, i'd like to see some decisiveness either way, like a net 300+ drop in the DOW weekly for a few weeks. I need around 1650 on the S&P to make decent profit on the SDS spreads I have...

Mostly sitting on hands this week so far....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #1,293
  • Sep 26, 2013 9:19am Sep 26, 2013 9:19am
just purchased some weekly GDX $25 PUTS for 13c, Underly was at 25.52 and now at 25.35.

looking for a drop in gold that can take GDX to around 24.35 area which would increase my put option

GDX Sep 2013 25.000 put (GDX130927P00025000)
-OPR
0.13 http://l.yimg.com/os/mit/media/m/bas...nt-1093278.png 0.05(27.78%) 9:55AM EDT
  • #1,294
  • Sep 26, 2013 9:22am Sep 26, 2013 9:22am
Quoting Cecil Gee
just purchased some weekly GDX $25 PUTS for 13c, Underly was at 25.52 and now at 25.35. looking for a drop in gold that can take GDX to around 24.35 area which would increase my put option GDX Sep 2013 25.000 put (GDX130927P00025000) -OPR 0.13 {image} 0.05(27.78%) 9:55AM EDT

underly price as it stands

Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX)
-NYSEArca
25.31 http://l.yimg.com/os/mit/media/m/bas...nt-1093278.png 0.21(0.82%) 10:20AM EDT - Nasdaq Real Time Price
  • #1,295
  • Sep 26, 2013 10:04am Sep 26, 2013 10:04am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} hope you are right, i'd like to see some decisiveness either way, like a net 300+ drop in the DOW weekly for a few weeks. I need around 1650 on the S&P to make decent profit on the SDS spreads I have... Mostly sitting on hands this week so far....
You might get 1650; depends where the 50DMA is...is it close to 1650? Can't remember..too lazy to check

Trouble with ES is that as soon as you get a big down day the feckers come in the next day and scoop it back up. It really is very bullish...until it's not.


At some point of course SPX will hit its 200DMA.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #1,296
  • Sep 26, 2013 10:16am Sep 26, 2013 10:16am
Ok ES at least has 20DMA a very high probability target at 1675..just 13 points away. 50DMA is at 1671. Both very likely to be hit, and soon, by the looks of things at the moment.
100DMA is further down at 1647 but looks very doable; although they may swing it up beforehand.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #1,297
  • Sep 26, 2013 10:17am Sep 26, 2013 10:17am
Quoting Cecil Gee
just purchased some weekly GDX $25 PUTS for 13c, Underly was at 25.52 and now at 25.35. looking for a drop in gold that can take GDX to around 24.35 area which would increase my put option GDX Sep 2013 25.000 put (GDX130927P00025000) -OPR 0.13 {image} 0.05(27.78%) 9:55AM EDT
Hmm, on opposite ends of the trade here. I expect gold to move up from here.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #1,298
  • Sep 30, 2013 7:48am Sep 30, 2013 7:48am
I am well positioned for a move south in US indices, this week I will extend that out toward November strikes.

Govt shutdown appears likely, may not have an extreme effect, but what is not priced in is a fail on the dept limit raise, due near Oct opex. If Congress continues to militate against that, or is wholly absent as the deadline approaches, then bear moves could be extreme...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #1,299
  • Oct 1, 2013 10:28am Oct 1, 2013 10:28am
Quoting Cecil Gee
just purchased some weekly GDX $25 PUTS for 13c, Underly was at 25.52 and now at 25.35. looking for a drop in gold that can take GDX to around 24.35 area which would increase my put option GDX Sep 2013 25.000 put (GDX130927P00025000) -OPR 0.13 {image} 0.05(27.78%) 9:55AM EDT
i may long some calls on GDX SOON, gold fell taking GDX to the lavel i was looking for last week. USO puts also doing well.

GDX low of 24.30 today and currently 24.43

Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX)
-NYSEArca
24.43 http://l.yimg.com/os/mit/media/m/bas...nt-1093278.png 0.59(2.36%) 11:26AM EDT - Nasdaq Real Time Price
  • #1,300
  • Oct 1, 2013 3:09pm Oct 1, 2013 3:09pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} underly price as it stands Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) -NYSEArca 25.31 {image} 0.21(0.82%) 10:20AM EDT - Nasdaq Real Time Price
Good call on gold.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
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