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  • #1,261
  • Sep 18, 2013 4:09am Sep 18, 2013 4:09am
speculative trade based purely on technical and implied volatility, near the open i'm looking to buy the weekly $14 call on JCP for less than 10c, the option closed for 11c yesterday and jcp CLOSED AT $13.74 also yesterday.

JCP Sep 2013 14.000 call (JCP130921C00014000)
-OPR
0.11 http://l.yimg.com/os/mit/media/m/bas...nt-1093278.png 0.01(10.00%) Sep 17
  • #1,262
  • Sep 18, 2013 1:16pm Sep 18, 2013 1:16pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} I don't take many of these st directional gambles anymore but this one seemed like a good bet with FOMC on Wed - I'll be looking to get out that day with some profit.
yep, shoulda straddled....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #1,263
  • Sep 18, 2013 5:16pm Sep 18, 2013 5:16pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} With NUGT @ $63.46 and DUST @ $31.88 (multiple 2)..and the two inversely correlated....is there a time value residual arb potential? buy 5 NUGT Oct 19 $64 call @ $10.40 ($5,200) and buy 10 DUST Oct 19 $32 call @ $5.30 ($5,300)
As of today's close, NUGT Oct 19 $64 call at $12.70 * 5 = $6,350

and DUST $32 call @ $1.80 * 10 = $1,800 : sum $8,150 ~ $2,350 net loss
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #1,264
  • Sep 19, 2013 6:02pm Sep 19, 2013 6:02pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} bit the bullet on EEM Oct 19 $40 put for $0.65, still watching VXX also watching DUST and NUGT, papertrading some pair trading there, will be interesting if/when they move to near parity....
damage control, will look to sell the Oct 19 $41 ($0.35) or $41.50 ($0.45) puts, looking for a little more EEM pullback tomorrow
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #1,265
  • Sep 19, 2013 6:12pm Sep 19, 2013 6:12pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} also looking at a TLT straddle if the 10y rate will dip to 2.80 or so
never got in, missed a big move there on FOMC day. Watching with interest the 10y note rate now. Buzz in the financial press is that the Fed has lost control of the bond market (as if, right?) and that the bond market (rising rates) will weigh down equities where the Fed didn't have the cojones to do so with its mthrfcking taper.

Well, I'll believe it when I see it & I expect 10y rate to be rangebound say 2.75 +/- 0.2, so will prolly lay off TLT until/if I see it beyond that range....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #1,266
  • Sep 19, 2013 6:20pm Sep 19, 2013 6:20pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} never got in, missed a big move there on FOMC day. Watching with interest the 10y note rate now. Buzz in the financial press is that the Fed has lost control of the bond market (as if, right?) and that the bond market (rising rates) will weigh down equities where the Fed didn't have the cojones to do so with its mthrfcking taper. Well, I'll believe it when I see it & I expect 10y rate to be rangebound say 2.75 +/- 0.2, so will prolly lay off TLT until/if I see it beyond that range....
Bought a few TLT shares in my new low-risk spin-off account a few days ago but dumped them today. TLT could easily drop to sub 100; chart's knackered; and I have no patience for tying up money in a nasty looking chart like that.

Reckon there could be a small bump in the road coming for equities; but the question is, will they go for a throwover eg 1750 ES first....
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #1,267
  • Sep 19, 2013 7:07pm Sep 19, 2013 7:07pm
Quoting Boy Wonder
{quote} Bought a few TLT shares in my new low-risk spin-off account a few days ago but dumped them today. TLT could easily drop to sub 100; chart's knackered; and I have no patience for tying up money in a nasty looking chart like that. Reckon there could be a small bump in the road coming for equities; but the question is, will they go for a throwover eg 1750 ES first....
NFP in two weeks, market press will spazz out all over that. If the US Employment numbers move up over the next 2 months then they will be on about the taper, deja vu all over again. If I had to bet on an extreme move in the 10y note rate, I'd look north, so TLT <100 is in the cards. Just have to see what 10y of 3.00% and up would do to equities then. I'm not touching any index action without covering my ass on either end, though....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #1,268
  • Sep 20, 2013 6:30am Sep 20, 2013 6:30am
I we get a blow-off bottom on TLT/bonds it might be worth buying a few; one plausible scenario is the market getting all antsy about tapering being officially commenced, causing yields to spike, but then on reflection the rate and duration of tapering not being commensurate to what at the time would have been priced in to yields.
I dunno though, predicting bond prices seems to me to be even more difficult than predicting equities; at least for equities you know that (as a class) they will always go up; with bonds, they're forever talking about this "great rotation" business. Hence my unwillingness to commit unless/until we see something approaching a possible real panic bottom.

I sense, with NFPs in 2 weeks, either they will be accumulating $ over the next 2 weeks or they will wait for the following one; impossible to know at the moment.
I have no clue what I'm talking about.
  • #1,269
  • Sep 20, 2013 11:21am Sep 20, 2013 11:21am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} NFP in two weeks, market press will spazz out all over that. If the US Employment numbers move up over the next 2 months then they will be on about the taper, deja vu all over again.....
"Bullard Suggests Fed May Taper in October, Dollar Rises"..............the shit will never end...

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/bullar...YwRjb2xvA2FjNA--
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #1,270
  • Sep 20, 2013 6:12pm Sep 20, 2013 6:12pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} "Bullard Suggests Fed May Taper in October, Dollar Rises"..............the shit will never end... http://finance.yahoo.com/news/bullar...YwRjb2xvA2FjNA--

Bullard also suggested it was touch and go at the recent FOMC whether to start tapering, its gonna happen a lot sooner than later, watch out for better NFP and the market drops and keeps falling on good economic numbers
  • #1,271
  • Sep 20, 2013 6:23pm Sep 20, 2013 6:23pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} Bullard also suggested it was touch and go at the recent FOMC whether to start tapering, its gonna happen a lot sooner than later, watch out for better NFP and the market drops and keeps falling on good economic numbers
I don't know bud. I could see them putting off until 2014 if the employment & housing numbers stink. TLT closed above $105 today, with 10y note rate looking to drop under 2.70%. Watching that, would like to see further rate drops toward 2.5 and then I will get long puts (or possibly straddle) in TLT for a 2-3 month gamble.

Otherwise sitting on all the Oct 19 options plays I have which are on balance short biased. I have been selling puts on SDS and USO to balance those out and made bank on those that expired today, but I am still in the hole on paper...

...so, same old shit, Fedheads jawboning, good news means taper sooner, mediocre to bad news fuels the equity bubble, its really getting old....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #1,272
  • Sep 20, 2013 6:29pm Sep 20, 2013 6:29pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} I don't know bud. I could see them putting off until 2014 if the employment & housing numbers stink. TLT closed above $105 today, with 10y note rate looking to drop under 2.70%. Watching that, would like to see further rate drops toward 2.5 and then I will get long puts (or possibly straddle) in TLT for a 2-3 month gamble. Otherwise sitting on all the Oct 19 options plays I have which are on balance short biased. I have been selling puts on SDS and USO to balance those out and made bank on those that expired today, but I am still in the...
I'm already in USO puts for october $37 put expiration as quoted in earler post on page 64, i got in at 52c. wobbled yesterday when we has the spike in the USO after the fomc but held firm as i bought more time value for it to work through, now just hoping that syria stays calm for another 4 weeks
  • #1,273
  • Sep 20, 2013 6:36pm Sep 20, 2013 6:36pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} I don't know bud. I could see them putting off until 2014 if the employment & housing numbers stink. TLT closed above $105 today, with 10y note rate looking to drop under 2.70%. Watching that, would like to see further rate drops toward 2.5 and then I will get long puts (or possibly straddle) in TLT for a 2-3 month gamble. Otherwise sitting on all the Oct 19 options plays I have which are on balance short biased. I have been selling puts on SDS and USO to balance those out and made bank on those that expired today, but I am still in the...
Going into the last week of the month i'd be careful pitting a trade in TLT, anyhow TLT trades below 104 at the start of october then i think it will break the 100 barrier and the 200 day m/a
  • #1,274
  • Sep 20, 2013 6:37pm Sep 20, 2013 6:37pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} I'm already in USO puts for october $37 put expiration as quoted in earler post on page 64, i got in at 52c. wobbled yesterday when we has the spike in the USO after the fomc but held firm as i bought more time value for it to work through, now just hoping that syria stays calm for another 4 weeks
I have been spread all over USO, with Oct 19 $34 puts, $40 calls, cheapo $43 calls, and have been selling the near term puts, scored on $37 puts sold for today's expiry, and will be looking to do that again next week for Oct 19 expiry if I can. The whole thing is a mess but I will probably make money on it as long as oil doesn't fall too far...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #1,275
  • Sep 20, 2013 6:39pm Sep 20, 2013 6:39pm
next week should be interesting for GOLD as its the quaterly expiration
  • #1,276
  • Sep 20, 2013 6:41pm Sep 20, 2013 6:41pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} Going into the last week of the month i'd be careful pitting a trade in TLT, anyhow TLT trades below 104 at the start of october then i think it will break the 100 barrier and the 200 day m/a
I am looking for a TLT play with Dec expiries now, but not in a hurry. It will be very interesting to see what the bond market does over the next 2 weeks. My suspicion is that $105.xx is the best TLT will be able to do - I doubt the 10y rate will go under 2.60. But we'll see....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #1,277
  • Sep 20, 2013 6:41pm Sep 20, 2013 6:41pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} I have been spread all over USO, with Oct 19 $34 puts, $40 calls, cheapo $43 calls, and have been selling the near term puts, scored on $37 puts sold for today's expiry, and will be looking to do that again next week for Oct 19 expiry if I can. The whole thing is a mess but I will probably make money on it as long as oil doesn't fall too far...
i'm hoping it touches 36 but it looks as though 35.75 may get it too, if it does i triple my money on these longer term plays
  • #1,278
  • Sep 20, 2013 6:44pm Sep 20, 2013 6:44pm
Quoting Cecil Gee
{quote} i'm hoping it touches 36 but it looks as though 35.75 may get it too, if it does i triple my money on these longer term plays
have a good weekend amigo, I will be making some trades by Tue-Wed next week I am sure, trying to dig out of the mess the Fed put me in....bastards.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #1,279
  • Sep 20, 2013 6:44pm Sep 20, 2013 6:44pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} I am looking for a TLT play with Dec expiries now, but not in a hurry. It will be very interesting to see what the bond market does over the next 2 weeks. My suspicion is that $105.xx is the best TLT will be able to do - I doubt the 10y rate will go under 2.60. But we'll see....
chart wise its been testing that 200 day a few times but its the monthly chart thats the king on tlt and thats got down down on it
  • #1,280
  • Sep 20, 2013 6:45pm Sep 20, 2013 6:45pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} have a good weekend amigo, I will be making some trades by Tue-Wed next week I am sure, trying to dig out of the mess the Fed put me in....bastards.
u too, have a good weekend
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