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AUD/USD

  • #66,041
  • Sep 22, 2013 7:01pm Sep 22, 2013 7:01pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} All the more reason to wait. I'm a mid to long term swing and position trader so I don't usually get involved in intraday moves, although I probably should. What can I say? Guess I'm too lazy to micro manage my account
wise man. I wish i have that kind of patience.
ignore wackos and psychos, including myself. But I can't add myself to iggy
  • #66,042
  • Sep 22, 2013 7:29pm Sep 22, 2013 7:29pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} I don't currently have a marked up chart to post, but my EW count shows that this up move from the 30th August lows is an impulse wave C up and it is still missing a wave 5. Last pull back was wave a of wave 4. Now we need a wave b up and c down. After that we get one more impulse up which will be the missing wave 5 of C. Then Crash Bang Boom!!! At least that is what EW is saying anyway. This is all clearly visible on H1 and H4
If you have time could you draw that out?

It sounds like you're saying we need 2 small waves ( b and c), b is up and then c is down.

Then we start wave 5, which would be up? To something like 96-97?

And after wave 5 we start over and head down to sub 88.

Is that basically what you see with EWP?
  • #66,043
  • Sep 22, 2013 7:31pm Sep 22, 2013 7:31pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} All the more reason to wait. I'm a mid to long term swing and position trader so I don't usually get involved in intraday moves, although I probably should. What can I say? Guess I'm too lazy to micro manage my account TBH, I am more interested in looking for a good shorting opp on Kiwi, or perhaps even a fresh long on AUD/NZD. I already have a couple of those underwater and holding.
AUDNZD double bottom? I'm watching for confirmation here and looking to get long on this pair... I know majority of guys on this thread are bearish bias on AUDNZD but I'm on the other side.

Just entered short on NZDCAD, trying to get some trades going on non-USD and non-EUR pairs for a little bit.
  • #66,044
  • Sep 22, 2013 7:45pm Sep 22, 2013 7:45pm
Quoting edindzeko
{quote} If you have time could you draw that out? It sounds like you're saying we need 2 small waves ( b and c), b is up and then c is down. Then we start wave 5, which would be up? To something like 96-97? And after wave 5 we start over and head down to sub 88. Is that basically what you see with EWP?
Yes that is exactly what I am saying. The large consolidation (ABC up from the lows) is actually the wave 4 of the much larger down move that started once the weekly triangle wave E completed around 1.0580. Next move (the crash bang boom!!!) will be wave 5 of that much larger move. This EW view supports the ABC up correction (larger wave 4) and now we are in the wave 4 of the C move. Once the C move is completed. Bye Bye Aussie. As you may already know, many times, wave 4's can become quite complex, so it is quite acceptable for the crash bang boom to take a while before it starts... probably will wait until taper time from the Fed.

Sorry I don't have that marked up chart for you. It's on my other PC which is in the process of a very processor and hard disk intensive data backup.
I'll post it tomorrow though as I'm off to bed shortly (Central European Time here = 2:45am)
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #66,045
  • Edited 9:04pm Sep 22, 2013 8:07pm | Edited 9:04pm
Quoting edindzeko
{quote} If you have time could you draw that out? It sounds like you're saying we need 2 small waves ( b and c), b is up and then c is down. Then we start wave 5, which would be up? To something like 96-97? And after wave 5 we start over and head down to sub 88. Is that basically what you see with EWP?
Managed to put a quick count together for you.
AUD/USD Compressed daily
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusddaily.png Size: 82 KB
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #66,046
  • Sep 22, 2013 8:11pm Sep 22, 2013 8:11pm
Quoting samirs
{quote} shorts seems to be the right direction so far for CHF JPY.....

QUESTION: hOW MANY OF US GOT KNOCKED OUT OF OUR aud/usd long by going to a shorter time frame than where we got the trsade from in the first place? Raise your hand? LOL

aS AN ASIDE, SAMIR, NO DISRESPECT TO YOU, BUT WHERRE DID YU GET THAT A DOJI ON AN HOUR CHART(THATS ALL i SEE) SHOWS THIS THING GOES DOWN. hOW MANY MONTHS OR YEARS HAVE YOU LOOKED AT? aND DO YOU REALLY WANT TO BASE AN HOURLY DOJI to predict more than 2 or 3 more bars? Im long and strong this pair because the support on the weekly is rediculous. Its like the longs built a wall down there at the 90 area AND I SAY IF IT BREAKS, IT WILL BE A FALSE BREAK OUT AND COME RIGHT BACK!
  • #66,047
  • Sep 22, 2013 8:12pm Sep 22, 2013 8:12pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Managed to put a quick count together for you. {image}
Appreciate it man.
  • #66,048
  • Sep 22, 2013 8:25pm Sep 22, 2013 8:25pm
Quoting Silat50
{quote} QUESTION: hOW MANY OF US GOT KNOCKED OUT OF OUR aud/usd long by going to a shorter time frame than where we got the trsade from in the first place? Raise your hand? LOL aS AN ASIDE, SAMIR, NO DISRESPECT TO YOU, BUT WHERRE DID YU GET THAT A DOJI ON AN HOUR CHART(THATS ALL i SEE) SHOWS THIS THING GOES DOWN. hOW MANY MONTHS OR YEARS HAVE YOU LOOKED AT? aND DO YOU REALLY WANT TO BASE AN HOURLY DOJI to predict more than 2 or 3 more bars? Im long and strong this pair because the support on the weekly is rediculous. Its like the longs...
I concur with your technical view on this, but all that aside, I'd like to add, that from a capital flow perspective, if JPY were to gain bids from a repatriation flow or the so called "safe haven" flow or "unwinding of carry trade" flow (or whatever label one would like to attach to it), I would bet dollars against donuts that the Swissy would get the lion's share of any such flows. So yeah; Bullish the CHF/JPY seems to be the way forward. But then that all depends on which time frame you want to park your butt.

Especially when you look at the monthly chart...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: chfjpymonthly.png Size: 47 KB
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #66,049
  • Sep 22, 2013 8:31pm Sep 22, 2013 8:31pm
Quoting edindzeko
{quote} Appreciate it man.
Cheers Bud
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #66,050
  • Sep 22, 2013 8:55pm Sep 22, 2013 8:55pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Cheers Bud
Guess what....
apparently some body reported me for threatening to put a senior member in temporary suspension, because he went absolutely balistic on me... using the "f" word and stuff...

PS. since when was SpartanTrade a Senior Member?
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #66,051
  • Sep 22, 2013 8:57pm Sep 22, 2013 8:57pm
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} Guess what.... apparently some body reported me for threatening to put a senior member in temporary suspension, because he went absolutely balistic on me... using the "f" word and stuff...
Yeah a general rule here is "don't threaten to suspend someone... just do it, or don't do it"
Anyway, don't worry about it. It's done.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #66,052
  • Sep 22, 2013 8:59pm Sep 22, 2013 8:59pm
what's the average age here? this is like freaking high school for God Sake.. can we talk about AUD ??? ... geeeeeeeeeee( i am 37 btw)
  • #66,053
  • Sep 22, 2013 9:00pm Sep 22, 2013 9:00pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Managed to put a quick count together for you. {image}
Is this chart for AUD/USD? Not shown which pair it is on the chart.
And, time frame please.
Simple is powerful all the time.
  • #66,054
  • Sep 22, 2013 9:03pm Sep 22, 2013 9:03pm
Quoting RiverTrader
{quote} Is this chart for AUD/USD? Not shown which pair it is on the chart. And, time frame please.
Sorry. That's AUD/USD compressed Daily
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #66,055
  • Sep 22, 2013 9:04pm Sep 22, 2013 9:04pm
Quoting RiverTrader
{quote} Is this chart for AUD/USD? Not shown which pair it is on the chart. And, time frame please.
It does say...CHF/JPY Monthly
  • #66,056
  • Sep 22, 2013 9:05pm Sep 22, 2013 9:05pm
Ugh... China PMI 51.2, AUDUSD on the rise... that'll dampen my mood a bit.... delaying my inevitable take profit... ah well...
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #66,057
  • Sep 22, 2013 9:07pm Sep 22, 2013 9:07pm
Quoting thewriter30
what's the average age here? this is like freaking high school for God Sake.. can we talk about AUD ??? ... geeeeeeeeeee( i am 37 btw)
37? Wow that's young according to my scale.
Let's just say I already had pubes when you were an embryo
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #66,058
  • Sep 22, 2013 9:09pm Sep 22, 2013 9:09pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} 37? Wow that's young according to my scale. Let's just say I already had pubes when you were an embryo
if he was an embryo, i doubt ill even exist at all ahahah
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #66,059
  • Sep 22, 2013 9:16pm Sep 22, 2013 9:16pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} I concur with your technical view on this, but all that aside, I'd like to add, that from a capital flow perspective, if JPY were to gain bids from a repatriation flow or the so called "safe haven" flow or "unwinding of carry trade" flow (or whatever label one would like to attach to it), I would bet dollars against donuts that the Swissy would get the lion's share of any such flows. So yeah; Bullish the CHF/JPY seems to be the way forward. But then that all depends on which time frame you want to park your butt. Especially when you...

Pip Trapper, iM NOT EVEN ARGUING ABOUT THE CHF/JPY AT ALL. YOU VERY WELL COULD BE RIGHT.I always respected your ability to tear apart a chart. That you know. In fact you are probably in the top 1% of chart readers on Forex Factory. But........ i DID LOOK AT THE chf/jpy CHART AS LONG AS YOU WERE NICE ENOUGH TO POST IT. aND ISNT IT A HOOT THAT IN FEB 1999 TO FEB 2007 YOUD BE ALMOST IN THE SAME PLACE 8 YRS LATER!!!!! This "illusion" of trend we keep thinking we are seeing on daily charts and even way more on lower time frames for sure, are just blips over time. In equities this could hardly ever happen. It is sick that a beginning trader who buys Netflix 3 yrs ago has now made 5 times his money by just the good ol' buying and holding strategy, which for currencies would be like watching paint dry and tossing your money under your mattress. ****But yeah, that monthly chart is about as extended as a porn stars underwear, but remember this, I'm with you on it, but if she stays long for a whole month more, all the guys oon the sidelines watching might just jump in long and play the momentum and then in late Oct we would have a shorting opportunity with the best R/R anyone has had all year!!!! So if we get stopped out on that chf/jpy....wait a couple of weeks and as soon as the bar of your choice gets taken out, jump right back in. What I love about Pip trappers chart is...this is pristine for a beginner as well. Why? If you get stopped out with a reasonable 50-70 pip loss 5 times in a row, you could make it all back and double in one trade with no problem as there aint much support from the big boys for " miles and miles and miles." LOL Good find! And I myself rarely use less than 200 pips for a stop if Im going out several days to a few weeks hold.




But speaking about JPY, AS i ANNOUNCED ON THIS BOARD 2 WEEKS OR MORE AGO , your odds are definitely skewed for a long on that aud/jpy pair. If aud wants to rise its taking all pairs associated ,up with it,right? But....if JPY prime minister decides its time for more action in suppressing their dollar, the aud benefits no matter how bad its doing against the other pairs anyway. So on that alone we get 2-1 odds on an even money bet. ANYONE LONG WITH ME?
  • #66,060
  • Sep 22, 2013 9:23pm Sep 22, 2013 9:23pm
Today's S/R MT4 Template

AUDUSD

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...59#post6980859
FX is a Bitc*h!, No one keeps me wake all night but FX does!!
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