DislikedThe majority of analsyts seem to agree there is no reason for aussie to go higher. RBA does no want it higher, supposedly taper now is definitely coming, etc. Any out there with bullish reasons? Maybe mr Spartan? Would u agree that when aussie went down every one agreed that was the way to go? But as has been said here, many shorted the aussie following that logic for a while unsuccessfullyIgnored
Well As much as I am confident that Aussie is headed higher, anything can happen. People laughed at my 0.98, parity and then 1.03 scenario months ago but look where we are. Not too far off. At the end of the day the market is the only thing that's always right. Here is what I previously posted on why I think we are headed higher. I could very well be wrong and I'm the first to acknowledge that. Here it is anyways
I really don't understand why so many think that the aussie fundamentally belongs where it is let alone sub 88-85.
1. China is not collapsing in terms of its manufacturing
2. Resources boom has not ended and will not end in the next decade
3. Everyone has been bearish already pricing in lower rates/poor growth etc for quite some time
4. Acceptable GDP this year will bounce to somewhere around 4.5-5% next year
5. New gov't = less taxation = increased investment = increased employment etc etc
Fundamentally as much as it hurts our export markets AUD DOES NOT belong below parity. Exporters should have hedged and continue to hedge to protect themselves. IMO, we are headed to parity and beyond not the sub 85's people are talking about.
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