My thoughts on USD/SGD
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
- #743
- Edited 11:48pm Sep 19, 2013 11:30pm | Edited 11:48pm
- Joined Jan 2008 | Status: <<--(-$-)-->> | 5,571 Posts
{quote} How can you say you agree with the babypips article being biased and a hack piece of writing yet, at the same time write this in the basic guide?Sounds very similar to the article to me. Introduction to the fake out We know there are two types of traders participating in these markets. The novice trader that is under capitalized and is pretty naive when it comes to trading knowledge. And then there are the real big pros, the hedge funds, the banks and other institutions who know their stuff and have really big accounts. These 'cool'...
I don't think it was a hack piece of writing but I do believe the tone was pretty much in line with sounding like fake out trading is way superior to breakout trading.
Pro traders can very well be break out traders just as well as they can be fake out traders. Its important to understand that the breakout traders as a whole aren't grouping up against the fake out traders in a battle where one group will lose. In the real world, both, break out traders as well as fake out traders co-exist and will both be making their fair share of money.
I am going to have to do a video on this and ensure that this get clarified as I honestly don't think that fake out trading is in any way superior or inferior to break out trading.
In that first post, I was referring to the category of breakout traders who will instinctively want to jump in when they see the market moving. I wasn't referring to all breakout traders.
g.
I believe . . .
- #744
- Sep 19, 2013 11:39pm Sep 19, 2013 11:39pm
- Joined Jan 2008 | Status: <<--(-$-)-->> | 5,571 Posts
{quote} This setup could pan out as well if price can break above the LLS but as far as textbook example that I liked was the USD/SEK that you mentioned earlier...price broke through the level and next candle came right back through it and next candle retested the LLS to confirm the bull signal....that fake out gave 100 pips so far..let's see how far it can goDid you enter that trade ghous?
It gave me the impression of being a "knee jerk reaction" as opposed to a solid fake out which kept me out.
After such a huge sell off, you normally like to see a deeper penetration of the LLS (for instance a test of the 6.3 RN at least) as well as multiple confirmations of the LLS holding as support. We did have a couple, but all too soon. Also no regular bullish divergence either.
The initial fake out bar, didn't present much information, and the bar next to it did give us a pull back and a holdup at the LLS, but then was headed straight for a MAJOR trouble area. That HUGE swing low LLS at 63750.
Just overall didn't quite appeal to me.
g.
I believe . . .
- #745
- Sep 19, 2013 11:45pm Sep 19, 2013 11:45pm
- Joined Jan 2008 | Status: <<--(-$-)-->> | 5,571 Posts
Just spotted this one on CAD/JPY what do you think about it? {image}
I'd generally like more space to play around with as well as take fake outs off of major swing points in the vicinity if there are (and in this case there is).
g.
I believe . . .
- #746
- Sep 20, 2013 12:01am Sep 20, 2013 12:01am
- Joined Jan 2008 | Status: <<--(-$-)-->> | 5,571 Posts
Hi All... Pls check EUR/JPY with daily TF... price have not been to that HHR since Jan. 2010 till yesterday bar.... could that be a kind of fake out bar we are lookin for...? Thanks for your reply... Stay Blessed. {image}
Notice how price has actually broken out of a major wedge. Even if it fakes out here, its heading back into a lot of traffic as well as pulling back to that former trnd line that broke through.
Once again guys, its not just about looking at swing points and pointing out fake out off of those. You've got to put it all itno the perspective of the bigger story and work around all the factors at play.
Hope this helps.
g.
I believe . . .
- #748
- Sep 20, 2013 2:47am Sep 20, 2013 2:47am
- Joined Jan 2008 | Status: <<--(-$-)-->> | 5,571 Posts
Watching to see if price can pop up above the LLS. But this is beautiful fake out material! {image} g.
I got access to my charts just 6 minutes into the new 4H bar and I had already missed this.
Great example of how fundamentals can create biased order flow that the pros will then target. This time it was the FOMC that did the trick.
g.
I believe . . .
- #749
- Sep 20, 2013 2:54am Sep 20, 2013 2:54am
- Joined Jan 2008 | Status: <<--(-$-)-->> | 5,571 Posts
@ GHOUS: Can you please upload a A+ Setup that you took because i only read your comments on Setups from other people that are not good but i can rarely find a setup that you commented on that is valid in your eyes??? Thanks
That is going to have to be the theme for the most part anyways. I am not a high frequency trader and emphasize a lot on high quality trades. You can imagine the theme of regular discussions then.
And I will be recording the next trade I take.
g.
I believe . . .
{quote} yeah well, the great setups have been scarce so naturally I haven't been trading much at all and trying to pass on the precautionary word to the rest who were questioning about the average setups. That is going to have to be the theme for the most part anyways. I am not a high frequency trader and emphasize a lot on high quality trades. You can imagine the theme of regular discussions then. And I will be recording the next trade I take.
Thanks a lot for your answer
- #751
- Sep 20, 2013 5:34am Sep 20, 2013 5:34am
- Joined Jan 2008 | Status: <<--(-$-)-->> | 5,571 Posts
I believe . . .
- #753
- Edited 7:25am Sep 20, 2013 7:13am | Edited 7:25am
- Joined Jan 2008 | Status: <<--(-$-)-->> | 5,571 Posts
{quote} Hey Ghous, What would have been your entry strategy on the 4 hour chart of USDNOK? I only focused on the daily chart. However, I did not enter at the break of the high of the pinbar. The main reason being that I felt I will be trading right into a ppz. Was I right with respect to my thought process? I thought a better approach would be to wait for the price to close above the lcs and then wait for a retest of the lcs. By doing this I can narrow down the stop loss by placing it below the low of PB&CA bar. BTW, what is FOMC? giggles
Since I was looking at the 4H chart I could have entered on either of those small inside bars before price closed above the LLS and then just shot off, but for me that 4H close above the LLS is always very very critical. My entry was going to be on the close of that 4H bullish outside bar that popped above the LLS and closed well. Like I said though, I was 6 minutes too late.
And FOMC is well...a news event like the NFP.
g.
I believe . . .
- #754
- Sep 20, 2013 7:20am Sep 20, 2013 7:20am
- Joined Jan 2008 | Status: <<--(-$-)-->> | 5,571 Posts
This is one I am lining up for a trade next week if we can get a daily close underneath the HHR.
(this one I also talked about in the video)
g.
(this one I also talked about in the video)
g.
I believe . . .
- #756
- Sep 20, 2013 8:39am Sep 20, 2013 8:39am
- Joined Jan 2008 | Status: <<--(-$-)-->> | 5,571 Posts
Ghous, Is this a valid fakeout? Price closes below the LLS and the very next bar closes back above the support. A flag formation is seen on the 4 hour chart. I am waiting for price to retest the brn 9.7. Neytiri {image} {image}
I was once again watching this on the 4H and really impressed by the way it unfolded. A lot of the USD/XXX pairs moved in similar fashion in consuming the order flow from the fundamental stimulus.
This is something that I have seen happen a lot.
You have some days of absolutely dead markets and all of a sudden a good bunch of pairs will spring into action. Its normal to be flat for 6 days then suddenly start cherry picking amongst a flurry of potential trading setups.
g.
I believe . . .
- #757
- Sep 20, 2013 8:42am Sep 20, 2013 8:42am
- Joined Jan 2008 | Status: <<--(-$-)-->> | 5,571 Posts
Another one for the watch list:
g.
g.
I believe . . .
- #759
- Edited 7:43pm Sep 20, 2013 6:32pm | Edited 7:43pm
- Joined May 2010 | Status: HCR-LCS SFP | 6,026 Posts
- #760
- Sep 20, 2013 11:06pm Sep 20, 2013 11:06pm
- Joined Feb 2009 | Status: kiki soso largyalo | 2,243 Posts
meine augen sind die sterne