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Similarity Trading - The ZZBB Method

  • #121
  • Sep 17, 2013 11:38am Sep 17, 2013 11:38am
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} Zooming out a bit more... this is why I went for the shorts. That green zone at the bottom needs clearing. If price travels to this point, there will be huge demand and I can see EU going to 1.34 and higher. I could be wrong, but I think it should go lower first to 1.318X again. {image}
Wasn't that zone cleared already from the bottom while still in dissimilarity mode? I raised that issue (with proper EURUSDD quote) in the practical approach thread.
But still from my observations I know that price sometimes comes back to those prematurely cleared zones anyway. And on your chart you have a good example (the middle zone).
  • #122
  • Sep 18, 2013 7:41am Sep 18, 2013 7:41am
Quoting mickwolf
{quote} Wasn't that zone cleared already from the bottom while still in dissimilarity mode? I raised that issue (with proper EURUSDD quote) in the practical approach thread. But still from my observations I know that price sometimes comes back to those prematurely cleared zones anyway. And on your chart you have a good example (the middle zone).
According to Ralome's v2 indicator, the DS period ended at my Green Bar (circled blue). Price rose up during DS and well past it... so technically on my chart, the DS Zone has not been cleared since the Green Bar appeared. Ralome's indicator also tells me it's been 3.7 days since that green bar. I have changed my settings from 14 to 35 to 70 days before the DS Zone is cleared. I find the 35 useful but you're right, price does come back to old zones and the 70 has proved this as well.

Still holding onto EU shorts but been trading other crosses. GBPUSD was a great trade this morning. Got stopped out of AUD.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #123
  • Sep 18, 2013 1:34pm Sep 18, 2013 1:34pm
Wehey! Attempt #2 is all done! LOL
On with Attempt #3... not a pure ZZBB method. LOL.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #124
  • Sep 19, 2013 12:11pm Sep 19, 2013 12:11pm
Trading a few pairs since starting Attempt 3.

Just scalped EU and EJ shorts. Was long on UJ this morning but I closed it before US Open... regret that now... original target was reached.
Also didn't take profits off the table from Cable... was up then got stopped out.

On this post, I've placed a long on EURGBP... it's just broken 300EMA on the 1H, on rising volume. Price has paused forming what looks like a bull flag.
Got open long on UJ as I think it will test 100.... this may be a medium term trade.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #125
  • Sep 19, 2013 6:11pm Sep 19, 2013 6:11pm
A few trades on the board. AUDUSD, have a short and long. The short is targeting 0.9346 on a Fib retrace, but I am bullish. I think we will see a return to 0.95. I suspect that EURAUD will also rise so I have a pending long on that too. Long on EURGBP and USDJPY.
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A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #126
  • Sep 20, 2013 9:58am Sep 20, 2013 9:58am
Quoting vlady1974
A few trades on the board. AUDUSD, have a short and long. The short is targeting 0.9346 on a Fib retrace, but I am bullish. I think we will see a return to 0.95. I suspect that EURAUD will also rise so I have a pending long on that too. Long on EURGBP and USDJPY. {image}
Irritated... i moved my stop and it got triggered. Price has now gone south without me. It is approaching my target price.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #127
  • Edited 6:52am Sep 21, 2013 6:22am | Edited 6:52am
Hi vlady1974 how are you?
i saw your thread and i add my graphs for additional contribution. it is my forecast. time will tell us the truth.

MONTHLY MODE

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WEEKLY MODE

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DAILY MODE

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H4 MODE

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  • #128
  • Sep 23, 2013 3:51am Sep 23, 2013 3:51am
Quoting P.Action
Hi vlady1974 how are you? i saw your thread and i add my graphs for additional contribution. it is my forecast. time will tell us the truth. MONTHLY MODE {image} {image} WEEKLY MODE {image} DAILY MODE {image} H4 MODE {image}
Hey PA!

Thanks very much for the post. I'm working my way upwards... I go down to the 1H myself.... but it's aligned to the upside of the 4H.
This is the 1st post where I will document something I've learned from somewhere else that contradicts my understanding of DS Zones ala similarity.... or maybe I've misunderstood it.

The 1H / your 4H shows the FOMC breakout bar and now it's consolidating. From previous work on Bollinger Bands (non Similarity related)... I've found that a breakout/consolodiation usually breaks out in the original direction of the breakout. In this case it's up.

(a) For this to happen, the last set of price moves will fake a break to the low side to get lower/better prices before going back into the range box then breaking to the topside.

(b) For it to fail (ie go Down0, it will usually accelerate to the north for the best High price (new High).... where there MUST BE SPACE TO THE LEFT of price... if there is, it's not complete and it will probably be a stifled breakout.

So there is better probability of a continuation for the EU. Now, the DS Zone created by the FOMC shows a large green zone that needs to be taken out - ideally in the next 35 days. Sometimes that is within 14 days (as per Eurusdd) but I've observed that sometimes, price goes AWAY from the zone to a maximum point (no-one knows where) before it comes back with a vengeance to clear the zone.

To me, it's too soon for the market to nullify the sentiment created by FOMC for price to clear the zone. So I tend to agree with your sentiment for a bull bar next month.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #129
  • Sep 23, 2013 4:00am Sep 23, 2013 4:00am
Current Trade Charts
Sorry I've not got much time to do more analysis... work is a killer.
Here are some charts which in Attempt 3 I am incorporating more of my "other" toolsets. Fibs and Pivots on some of these charts.

UJ
I'm looking to target the DS Zones with longs. Don't know where the retrace will happen though.. I've come in too early possibly on the UJ.
My fibs are set to 12.5 intervals not the usual Fibonacci numbers. I also anchor the Fib lines from the LAST SWING that originated the move... this is a bone of contention with some chartists. I have reaffirmed my technique watching MaxDoom who showed me a cool technique I'd seen before of layering the Fibs.... but he mentioned about anchoring off the last swing low when tracking a bullish move.... which then leads to a bear retrace.... the overlapped Fibs then create the TP... he sets it as bubbles or price clusters. I use Pivs and S/R... I used to use Murrey Math but the repaint was horrendous..... I've found (when it works!) that the DS Zones that align really really do work.... it's just a bitch when they don't.... haven't figured a way of managing this without suffering the SL. Dunno... jury's out on this.

AU
This looks long to me... initial TP is set. Also watching AUDCHF there was a potential breakout short but that has not materialised as price has gone back to test the 1H 300EMA.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #130
  • Sep 23, 2013 4:08am Sep 23, 2013 4:08am
Quoting P.Action
Hi vlady1974 how are you? i saw your thread and i add my graphs for additional contribution. it is my forecast. time will tell us the truth. MONTHLY MODE {image} {image} WEEKLY MODE {image} DAILY MODE {image} H4 MODE {image}
I don't think the resistence on the Weekly mode is strong enough. It's the 2nd one you marked that I think has more potency. I am loosely counting EW from the swing low and I can see the RED Upper TL being targetted.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #131
  • Sep 23, 2013 11:27am Sep 23, 2013 11:27am
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} Hey PA! Thanks very much for the post. I'm working my way upwards... I go down to the 1H myself.... but it's aligned to the upside of the 4H.
This is how the 1H has developed. I closed the Longs for -16 pips.
I also closed the AUD longs at Fib75.... I'm undecided on the UJ so keeping it open.
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A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #132
  • Sep 23, 2013 3:30pm Sep 23, 2013 3:30pm
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} This is how the 1H has developed. I closed the Longs for -16 pips. I also closed the AUD longs at Fib75.... I'm undecided on the UJ so keeping it open. {image}
i was busy all day too.


dear vlady i dont know how your new strategy works. but i think your chart is so confluence.


but it is your choice, respect.


by the way i draw possible candle for not next month. i drew it for this month(september) end looking
  • #133
  • Sep 24, 2013 9:04am Sep 24, 2013 9:04am
Quoting P.Action
Hi vlady1974 how are you? i saw your thread and i add my graphs for additional contribution. it is my forecast. time will tell us the truth. MONTHLY MODE {image} {image} WEEKLY MODE {image} DAILY MODE {image} H4 MODE {image}

E-U and G-U is mine. e-u turn nearly 23.6 level. as i mentioned before

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  • #134
  • Sep 24, 2013 9:59am Sep 24, 2013 9:59am
Quoting P.Action
{quote} E-U and G-U is mine. e-u turn nearly 23.6 level. as i mentioned before {image} {image}
Nice one!
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #135
  • Sep 25, 2013 4:23am Sep 25, 2013 4:23am
I've been researching some 1H signal systems and I've found one that I am testing using good old fashioned Moving Averages..... with a slight twist that I like.
Here EJ has correlated with ZZB and the signal on the 1H. Let's see how this performs.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #136
  • Sep 25, 2013 4:27am Sep 25, 2013 4:27am
I'm comparing the EJ trade against this UJ trade. UJ LONG trade triggered using:

  1. ZZBottom formed
  2. Fib 32 Level bounce
  3. Candlestick tails implying greater demand than supply

The 1H signal has NOT given a signal to buy... unlike the EJ trade.

Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #137
  • Sep 25, 2013 6:20am Sep 25, 2013 6:20am
Quoting vlady1974
I've been researching some 1H signal systems and I've found one that I am testing using good old fashioned Moving Averages..... with a slight twist that I like. Here EJ has correlated with ZZB and the signal on the 1H. Let's see how this performs. {image} {image}
Grrr.. this systems said to move SL to BE at +10 pips movement. Did that and got stopped out.... aarrggh.
May have to leave it open until a +20 pip move. Re-entering.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #138
  • Sep 25, 2013 9:15am Sep 25, 2013 9:15am
Closed EJ, AU, UJ for 100 pips
These 2 template combination has promise.

The UJ was profitable in the end... but the EJ was most profitable and safest entry. EU trade still open.
Opened a AUDCHF trade based purely on the new trigger... but didn't use the Similarity Template.... and it's now underwater.
So 2 trades done without the other started off immediately underwater. The one triggered by the MA template was safest - provided the Similarity Template showed there was an underlying Swing and Fib/Pivot/S/R target.

Will continue this testing.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #139
  • Sep 25, 2013 11:07am Sep 25, 2013 11:07am
Quoting vlady1974
Closed EJ, AU, UJ for 100 pips These 2 template combination has promise. The UJ was profitable in the end... but the EJ was most profitable and safest entry. EU trade still open. Opened a AUDCHF trade based purely on the new trigger... but didn't use the Similarity Template.... and it's now underwater. So 2 trades done without the other started off immediately underwater. The one triggered by the MA template was safest - provided the Similarity Template showed there was an underlying Swing and Fib/Pivot/S/R target. Will continue this testing.
Closed EU and AUDCHF for -20. Not clear enough signals on both... both were triggered on singular templates not combined.
So it looks like where the Combined templates produce a clear signal for their respective rules, the chances of the price going in the correct direction is higher.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #140
  • Sep 26, 2013 10:22am Sep 26, 2013 10:22am
Getting good hits with the combination of two method templates.

Had excellent results from overnight Asian trades.

Had one bad trade with EJ this morning which I wasn't able to manage and cut losses early as I was hijacked as soon as I got into work... didn't look at a chart until late morning and had a -70 pip drawdown. I decided to close it as a penalty. I've gotten most of that back with some extra pippage off Aussie crosses.

The EU, EJ, UJ pairs are experiencing whiplashing indecision... so I may either decide to scalp on lower tf's or stay flat on those.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
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