AUD/USD | Page 3291 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Related Instruments

AUD/USD

Similar Threads

EUR/GBP, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, CAD, NZD, JPY, and more... 15 replies

EUR/USD, AUD/USD, and CAD/USD ready to move up 2 replies

Anyone here trading AUD/USD or USD/AUD tonight regarding AUS Home Loan Report? 1 reply

The AUD/USD 1.00 EUR/AUD 1.60 GBP/AUD 2.00 Thread! 0 replies

AUD Trade Balance and AUD Retail sales 6 replies

Attachments: AUD/USD
Exit Attachments

AUD/USD

  • #65,801
  • Sep 18, 2013 10:51pm Sep 18, 2013 10:51pm
My first post! Been reading on here for quite a while, time to add my 2c.

Been watching this ST retracement for the last 1.5 hours. Ready to get long as this breaks. Which could be right now.
  • #65,802
  • Sep 18, 2013 11:42pm Sep 18, 2013 11:42pm
Still hungover from Ben... Credibility? Don't put taper out there without FIRM guidance. Yep, I expected 5B taper, but no love. Good news is the equities made up the losses and then some. Lesson learned.



I'll be back
  • #65,803
  • Sep 18, 2013 11:44pm Sep 18, 2013 11:44pm
Falling off that 0.9483 shelf would be good for my short...
  • #65,804
  • Sep 19, 2013 12:08am Sep 19, 2013 12:08am
Quoting lazy
{quote} Hi As long as you got enough fund to support it is ok to hold if you want to short use futures ( like 3 months) for long use spot cheers
Why ??
There's no monetary advantage between trading either product .
Whilst there's no carry cost with a Short Futures position ,
you'll be selling at a discount which narrows daily by the equivalent dollar amount of the daily carry charge
(currently around 0.62 pips a day) eventually reaching parity with the Spot price on expiry .
  • #65,805
  • Sep 19, 2013 1:33am Sep 19, 2013 1:33am
Quoting Balmain Boy
{quote} Why ?? There's no monetary advantage between trading either product . Whilst there's no carry cost with a Short Futures position , you'll be selling at a discount which narrows daily by the equivalent dollar amount of the daily carry charge (currently around 0.62 pips a day) eventually reaching parity with the Spot price on expiry .
Hi

So why the prices of the spot and future are not same amount???

cheers
  • #65,806
  • Sep 19, 2013 1:52am Sep 19, 2013 1:52am
Quoting lazy
{quote} Hi So why the prices of the spot and future are not same amount??? cheers

In Spot FX , the higher yielding currency receives daily interest . In Currency Futures , instead of receiving daily interest
the price is discounted accordingly to reflect the non payment of interest .
  • #65,807
  • Sep 19, 2013 1:57am Sep 19, 2013 1:57am
Quoting Balmain Boy
{quote} In Spot FX , the higher yielding currency receives daily interest . In Currency Futures , instead of receiving daily interest the price is discounted accordingly to reflect the non payment of interest .


Hi

Thats why long auzi in the spot

and short in futures

cheers
  • #65,808
  • Sep 19, 2013 2:11am Sep 19, 2013 2:11am
Check out the D1 EMA200 @.9530 acting as resistance

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EMA200.png Size: 72 KB
  • #65,809
  • Sep 19, 2013 2:33am Sep 19, 2013 2:33am
Quoting lazy
{quote} Hi Thats why long auzi in the spot and short in futures cheers
No , you're just not grasping it .
I'll repeat , there is no monetary difference between the 2 financial instruments .


Hypothetical example

Difference in yield between AUD and USD is 2%
You go long at 95.00 on a Spot FX amount of $100k .
You receive $6 a day in interest .
After 10 days you close it out at same price (95.00) , earning a total of $60 in interest payments .

At the same time , with 10 days to expiry you go long Futures 1 lot ($100k position) at 94.94 .
The Futures are trading 6 ticks (pips) lower because of the interest differential of 0.6 pips a day x 10 days .
Each day closer to expiry the price narrows by 0.6 of tick (pip) . So even though in 10 days time , the Spot price hasn't moved ,
you're Futures has by 6 ticks (10 x 0.6) to 95.00 Each tick is worth $10 , so 6 x 10 = $60 , which is exactly the same outcome .
  • #65,810
  • Sep 19, 2013 3:05am Sep 19, 2013 3:05am
Quoting Balmain Boy
{quote} No , you're just not grasping it . I'll repeat , there is no monetary difference between the 2 financial instruments . Hypothetical example Difference in yield between AUD and USD is 2% You go long at 95.00 on a Spot FX amount of $100k . You receive $6 a day in interest . After 10 days you close it out at same price (95.00) , earning a total of $60 in interest payments . At the same time , with 10 days to expiry you go long Futures 1 lot ($100k position) at 94.94 . The Futures are trading 6 ticks (pips) lower because of the interest differential...

Hi

give me example for short

what about the deposit and the margine

cheers
  • #65,811
  • Sep 19, 2013 3:22am Sep 19, 2013 3:22am
Quoting mm3934
{quote} Hi Kiwi, agree with most of your comments. My daily shows some different numbers (no big deal) but I think we're heading into stronger resistance than you. Anyway, i definately don't have a crystal ball and am trying not to think too much Green pips to you cheers {image}
Retracement to 0.9433 is my trade. Whether before or during the US session i'm not sure.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusdm15.png Size: 27 KB
Money Makes Money
  • #65,812
  • Sep 19, 2013 3:26am Sep 19, 2013 3:26am
Quoting lazy
{quote} Hi give me example for short what about the deposit and the margine cheers

Using the same prices & duration as the previous hypothetical , If you went Short , the Spot FX position would of cost you $60 to hold over the 10 days .
Your Futures position would have gone 6 pts against you (even though the Spot price hadn't moved) , again , costing you $60 .
  • #65,813
  • Sep 19, 2013 3:44am Sep 19, 2013 3:44am
Quoting Balmain Boy
{quote} Using the same prices & duration as the previous hypothetical , If you went Short , the Spot FX position would of cost you $60 to hold over the 10 days . Your Futures position would have gone 6 pts against you (even though the Spot price hadn't moved) , again , costing you $60 .
Hi

Have you seen the rollover charger in spot for bought and sold

cheers
  • #65,814
  • Sep 19, 2013 4:44am Sep 19, 2013 4:44am
Quoting lazy
{quote} Hi Have you seen the rollover charger in spot for bought and sold cheers
In the hypothetical I applied a rollover rate of +2% on the bought position and -2% on the sold position .
  • #65,815
  • Sep 19, 2013 4:53am Sep 19, 2013 4:53am
expect rates cut talks tomorrow, while China sleeps.
  • #65,816
  • Sep 19, 2013 5:04am Sep 19, 2013 5:04am
Quoting Balmain Boy
{quote} In the hypothetical I applied a rollover rate of +2% on the bought position and -2% on the sold position .

Hi

in fxcm rollshort 8.90 for100k margine 500aud

rollbought 4.30 for 100k
it will change with the intrest rate

its not 2%

cheers
  • #65,817
  • Sep 19, 2013 5:56am Sep 19, 2013 5:56am
Long from 0.9520...
Target 0.9665
Stop 0.9475

Good luck today guys!
  • #65,818
  • Sep 19, 2013 6:52am Sep 19, 2013 6:52am
Quoting lazy
{quote} Hi in fxcm rollshort 8.90 for100k margine 500aud rollbought 4.30 for 100k it will change with the intrest rate its not 2% cheers
Hey lazy, balmain boy is right with the whole roll over swap rates.... problem is we dont get that 2% because brokers like FXCM are shady, instead of giving you that 2% you deserve, they are gona claim that theirs a cost to the swap for their administrative work.
hypothetically holding a currency with a higher differential yield than the other gives you the swap...
heck i've seen shit where at one point when EUR and GBP were at the same interest rate... think it was a year ago... brokers still give you negative swap on both long or short....
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #65,819
  • Sep 19, 2013 6:55am Sep 19, 2013 6:55am
I am still on the taper train, and given the fact fed surprised market with no taper, the market is gona expect the fed to taper HUGE when good news in US starts to come back.

also. on the weekly chart on AUDUSD we could only be seeing this up move as an AB to C retracement. but the next leg to D is gona be even lower than B
possibly down to 0.85 believe it or not.
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #65,820
  • Sep 19, 2013 6:57am Sep 19, 2013 6:57am
for the time being I am with you. I think now markets will be looking at each and every data with scrutiny and checking whether this can affect tapering. to start with we have unemployment claims today.
30 traders viewing now