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  • #61
  • Aug 22, 2013 7:17am Aug 22, 2013 7:17am
Quoting Slim Buffett
{quote} And how would you apply mathematics to human psychology ? That is, if only mathematics mattered ??
its called option volatility. however, as per quantum mechanics, if object observed too much, changes behaviour.

so.... its harder than it looks as retail does not have good tools to analyse stuff that matters.
  • #62
  • Aug 22, 2013 7:40am Aug 22, 2013 7:40am
Quoting seaman2
{quote} its called option volatility. however, as per quantum mechanics, if object observed too much, changes behaviour. so.... its harder than it looks as retail does not have good tools to analyse stuff that matters.
bs retail has everything it needs to be successful ... retail just lacks the proper training.
  • #63
  • Aug 22, 2013 9:43am Aug 22, 2013 9:43am
Numbnuts,

OK... You puts your concepts in general terms very nicely. I would say like a politician. Now, I would be very happy to hear more precise analysis/direction/approach than just saying "World is Universe". Tells you everything, but actually nothing. If you wouldn't mind sharing how you really analyse on a simple - perfectly life trade - example, that would be great.
  • #64
  • Aug 22, 2013 8:18pm Aug 22, 2013 8:18pm
Most of you are wasting your time and money. Quit now while you still have the college fund - some simple statistical analysis isn't going to provide you the edge you want. There is a way to make money simply based on market characteristics - a floor, for example, (I've proven this through a custom program I wrote) but the returns are so slow you'd have to have a fortune already to profit anything significant. The real trading profit lies in understanding what smart money looks like in raw price action, but the truth is the vast majority of you will never invest the time needed in order to understand it.
  • #65
  • Aug 22, 2013 8:37pm Aug 22, 2013 8:37pm
Quoting GnarlyPips
{quote} If we could know how aggressive an interbank is, we'd be that much more likely to know the odds of what price will do. However, we'd also have to know who's in the hand at the time. Is a hand over at the end of the day? Or is it over after an entire position is built up through a week or so due to having such a massive stack that getting it all in right then and there is actually losing value?
So maybe the question is not if statistics work...but HOW TO KNOW HOW AGGRESSIVE AN INTERBANK (or CENTRAL BANK or MAJOR INVESTMENT BANK) IS?
  • #66
  • Aug 22, 2013 8:40pm Aug 22, 2013 8:40pm
Quoting Pipologist
{quote} So maybe the question is not if statistics work...but HOW TO KNOW HOW AGGRESSIVE AN INTERBANK (or CENTRAL BANK or MAJOR INVESTMENT BANK) IS?
What's that supposed to even mean?
  • #67
  • Aug 22, 2013 8:42pm Aug 22, 2013 8:42pm
Quoting Kanzler
The real trading profit lies in understanding what smart money looks like in raw price action, but the truth is the vast majority of you will never invest the time needed in order to understand it.
That's what it means....

But the question is: What does smart money look like in raw price action?

Care to enlighten and illuminate us Mr. Kanzler?

Really. Not being sarcastic. Really want to know because I believe it's key as well. What are the tools or data you use and/or where do you look to find them?
  • #68
  • Aug 22, 2013 8:44pm Aug 22, 2013 8:44pm
Quoting Pipologist
{quote} That's what it means.... But the question is: What does smart money look like in raw price action? Care to enlighten and illuminate us Mr. Kanzler?
Yes but I'm not going to directly, I spent two years digging through the mountain of absolute trash on this forum and I want other people to have the same joyful experience lol. You can dig through my history and take a look at the threads I visit if you want the right direction though.
  • #69
  • Aug 22, 2013 8:47pm Aug 22, 2013 8:47pm
Quoting Kanzler
{quote} Yes but I'm not going to directly, I spent two years digging through the mountain of absolute trash on this forum and I want other people to have the same joyful experience lol. You can dig through my history and take a look at the threads I visit if you want the right direction though.
No problem. I agree with you. I wouldn't simply give away the gold either. Thanks for pointing out where to look. I have my reasons for asking you, I'm right in the middle of enhancing an EA I made with "stronger signals" using the type of data you mentioned. I don't use any "known" indicators that are available in software.
  • #70
  • Aug 23, 2013 3:31am Aug 23, 2013 3:31am
Quoting Kanzler
The real trading profit lies in understanding what smart money looks like in raw price action
This means that you track the footprint the smart money left behind its trading. The assumption is that they are too big to efficiently hide. IMO understanding this is already a statistical evaluation of the PA. Even if you didn't write it in maths equations your brain did it after thousands of hours of price watching.

Quoting Kanzler
the truth is the vast majority of you will never invest the time needed in order to understand it
Thousands of hours of price watching indeed takes... well thousands of hours. No shortcut. A second truth is that you could give the key to the vast majority, few would unlock the door.
No greed. No fear. Just maths.
  • #71
  • Sep 10, 2013 12:57am Sep 10, 2013 12:57am
Quoting ddeeen
I think that mathematics will never working on market. it's not exact things, it's very fluctuate and unpredictable... We only can use trap on there, with EA, fundamental,and with technical analysis..
Mathematics works. Finding an edge and %winingz in your favour and you can start developing it forward. Or as this guy put it:

Quoting vox dei
Trading without statistics = guessing, gambling. Statistics are needed to find an edge. Statistics are needed to validate that edge. Statistics are needed to apply the edge. Statistics are needed to keep that edge sharp.
And what direction of mathematics do one looks for. Its movement of the price..
  • #72
  • Sep 10, 2013 8:31am Sep 10, 2013 8:31am
Actually it is the vast amount of knowledge needed, to say any word about anything, if we really want to be serious.
Most people are mostly deluded.

For ''wrong system'' it is possible to be traded successfully for years and then came to 0.
Same is with any business.There is not many from start-ups - to last hundred’s of years!Or even to last much much less than that.

Even from very experienced traders (trading for 20-30 or more years) we hear do this, do that – you can do it, but in the end it seems like they are not sure and never will be, and in the end you can’t know.
The sad thing is that some of them even say that grail is not existent. That all the preachings are only marketing. Can you imagine!?(re read and re read numerous times!)

Domino and such, so for someone’s sake how do you do it?
Or is it a maximum you can give and luck and no giving up?
But if we want to last then we need something very good and measurable.

I have seen numerous of times that in (probably) every trader’s profile i.e. posts, there are about numerous inconsistencies!!
And what does that say?

Stats should be of use but also the things from my experience, aren’t easy.
Give us ideas...

You can also see my thread: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=429630
  • #73
  • Sep 10, 2013 11:01am Sep 10, 2013 11:01am
Quoting wookey
Hello, I am a mathematician,...
No, you are not.


Quoting wookey
...so I like when every action is explained mathematically.

So, you like the explanations why the coin turns up heads vs. tails. Fine, but the mathematician do not care about this. They work with probabilities, something that you do not understand, as the example below clearly shows.

Quoting wookey
My friend insists, that over long term the probability of this patter getting positive result is 50%. So if you found it working in the past 6 months, in the next 6 months it will make losses to compensate.
This is ignorant. In the next 6 months the system is expected to hit 50% or break even, not counting slippage and commissions.

Statistics is like karate. It only works for people who have mastered it to some usable degree.
  • #74
  • Sep 18, 2013 9:48pm Sep 18, 2013 9:48pm
Quoting 21vs7
{quote} Mathematics works. Finding an edge and %winingz in your favour and you can start developing it forward. Or as this guy put it: {quote} And what direction of mathematics do one looks for. Its movement of the price..

Sorry 21vs7, can't really say I've understood what you meant. If you meant what mathematics branch do I think is important for trading. I meant statistics (basic understanding). Otherwise, could you reformulate please?
"To hold, you must first open your hand. Let go." - Lao Tzu
  • #75
  • Sep 18, 2013 10:05pm Sep 18, 2013 10:05pm
  •  Owl
  • | Joined Dec 2012 | Status: FX Siphoner Of Symphonies | 435 Posts
Quoting wookey
Hello, I am a mathematician, so I like when every action is explained mathematically. I use various statistics in my trading systems starting from support/resistance (to see which level statistically more accurate) to validating patterns (for instance if a certain kind of engulfing patter has more probability to work). My systems have moderate success trading automatically. So I am pretty happy with them and math behind them. However few weeks ago my friend, also a math graduate, pointed out to me that his research shows that statistics does not...

One Must Use A Noble Rapier To Pierce The Veil Of Mystery
  • #76
  • Edited 11:48pm Sep 18, 2013 11:36pm | Edited 11:48pm
Quoting wookey
I did not say that the marker is a random walk and I do not think so. The market alternate from balance to not balance. In balanced move you can treat market as random and trade mean reverse, you cannot do that then there is no balance and the market is trending. However, the thing is that these transitions are pretty much random for us. We cannot extract statistically significant clues that market is going to change. For example, you found a pattern, for simplicity lets say bullish harami, which you found working pretty well for some testing period...
I think this is wrong. There are some times with big changes, like yesterday FOMC. These times makes the trend until the next big news.

It is clear that there are pivot prices for EURUSD. But the Chaos also has strange attractors.

FX is a mix. Something chaotic, something random (small oscillations : BB of 24 at M15 on EURUSD for example), something fundamental.

So statistics ? not in chaos nor fundamental.

Maybe not one but three strategies then... Pattern for chaotic, statistical like the BB for randomness and breakout / news for fundamental.
Enter Signature
  • #77
  • Sep 19, 2013 1:00am Sep 19, 2013 1:00am
I think we should use statistics in Forex trading because it is very necessary to know about Forex figures. Forex is a big business and we can anaylize trends of Forex .
  • #78
  • Sep 19, 2013 1:45am Sep 19, 2013 1:45am
Quoting vox dei
{quote} Sorry 21vs7, can't really say I've understood what you meant. If you meant what mathematics branch do I think is important for trading. I meant statistics (basic understanding). Otherwise, could you reformulate please?
You said mathematics dont work. I said It works. Statistics is only a little sister of the mother Math.
  • #79
  • Sep 19, 2013 1:59am Sep 19, 2013 1:59am
WHY DO THE GURUS IN CHAT ROOMS ALL WIND UP SELLING THEIR SERVICES WHEN THEIR "STATS" CLEARLY SHOW THEY WIN EVERY WEEK AND WITH BIG ROI?

If those of you who are so pro statistics were right, you wouldnt be on this thread. You'd be out on your boat with 5 beautiful babes enjoying the good life. See trading has one good point going for it. Nothing is subjective.Almost nothing! Either you can win enough to make a living as a trader and change your lifestyle......or you are a losing trader who will blow up acct after acct, even if it takes years for each one.

Show me one guy on this thread who has not been in a chat room for a long time and either wasted a lot of time and money(subscription fees) following a certain trader or even team of traders because they keep hitting 2 out of 3 trades day after day after day and they never have a losing week. And you keep asking yourself...."OK..these gius keep demonstrating they can win day after day, week after week, not much draw down, if I were them I would never sell this system. WHY ARE THEY DONG IT?" Now, when you pro-stats people can answer that question, you'll have answered the question about stats as well.

Notice I did not say I believed stats could or would make you a winning trader or not. Im simply pointing out that there are too many ex- as in (used to be) experts who think they know the first thing about trading and yet they are here for 5 years, or they have over 1000 posts here and still they cant make a living trading. Why?

Here is an interesting experiment if anyone would like to take me up on this. Instead of using the usual stats(MA cross,fib numbers,RSI,patterns,candles,etc)....why not track people themselves as stats and see how they do and why things went sour or better when they did? This would be an awesome new thread to have! Trade Explorer allows us to partially do that. And sadly it doesnt bode well for stats. How can a guy have a 500% roi ONE MONTH asnd the next month he is negative!. If he is placing 3 or even better 5 or more trades a day this should not be very possible. So why does it happen over and over again? In fact why bother with stats. Just follow the guys that show the best return .No...follow the best 5 guys on trade explorer so as to diversify and smooth out the curve. You should never lose doing that. So ....why arent we all doing that?

And who is going to take me up on my offer?
  • #80
  • Sep 19, 2013 2:27am Sep 19, 2013 2:27am
Silat50
I have few minutes to spare. Dont have 5 babes to spank. I like the mountains and my love at home.

I see you are angry and dissapointed a bit..

1. Who said anything on selling services?
2. Who said that succesfull traders dont like to be entartained by threads like that?
3. Who said number of posts gives 100% chance of winning?
4. Who said RSI, FIB, Patterns, Candles work?
5. Who said one should look at account statements of one lunatics with 500% gain?


About tracking a group of good traders. I agree. Just, you are a copy cat and when they gonna end this threads journey, you gonna end up with risk on the table that you dont want. How they say, teach a man to fish a cheezeeburger..

Good, excellent traders like to talk to a fellow trader. That is the whole point. But, you also have a lot of comercial things around. But one should distinguis this from the rest.
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