The Club! | Page 439 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Help Me Establish The GbpUsd After Dinner Club 40 replies

Attachments: The Club!
Exit Attachments

The Club!

  • #8,761
  • Sep 18, 2013 10:28pm Sep 18, 2013 10:28pm
Quoting Delta1One
{quote} Hey Ven, How would you anticipate Asian session reaction on this? I guess most players were already in this move since they plays across the clock of time zones. Now the news is priced in already. So will the Asian session rather plays the card of the pullback ?

hi Delta,

I just woke up now and see the Asian session is running the Yen pairs the other way - up. In UJ this appears to be a correction, but EJ may make a new high if it doesn't reverse at 133.10. Whether this is the participants or the BoJ i dunno...

Kuroda is set to speak anytime soon and will no doubt put a positive spin on the FOMC to justify BoJ easing policy and try to talk up the Nikkei. So I expect most movement in the Yen pairs and Asian currencies during the Asian session (and consolidation in others) with European session continuing trend after a small pullback.

That's my expectation based Yen/EM issues related to the USD and from previous FOMC aftermaths
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #8,762
  • Sep 18, 2013 10:56pm Sep 18, 2013 10:56pm
Quoting venzen
{quote} hi Delta, I just woke up now and see the Asian session is running the Yen pairs the other way - up. In UJ this appears to be a correction, but EJ may make a new high if it doesn't reverse at 133.10. Whether this is the participants or the BoJ i dunno... Kuroda is set to speak anytime soon and will no doubt put a positive spin on the FOMC to justify BoJ easing policy and try to talk up the Nikkei. So I expect most movement in the Yen pairs and Asian currencies during the Asian session (and consolidation in others) with European session continuing...
http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2013/0...t-to-downside/
BOJ board member Kuichi: Sees risk to Japan economy tilted somewhat to downside
1 hour ago | September 19th, 2013 02:26:27 GMT by Eamonn Sheridan | 8 Comments
Says:

  1. Japan’s economy expected to continue moderate recovery
  2. Risk to Japan economy tilted somewhat to downside
  3. Uncertainty on overseas economies growing
  4. Uncertain if advanced economies, mainly US, can take up slack from slowing growth in emerging nations
  5. Speculation of Feed policies has driven down currencies, stocks in emerging nations – weighs on thier economies
  6. Two year time frame is too short in meeting BOJ 2% inflation target
  7. Demerits of BOJ easing may exceed merits if massive stimulus is prolonged or strengthened
  8. Sees fading in positive impact from stock price rises and reversal of yen gains
  9. Japan’s export environment may not improve much due to overseas uncertainty
  10. Japan prices may face downward pressure for some time
  11. Feds policy tools may serve as a reference for BOJ’s future policy guidance
  12. BOJ may need to come up with appropriate mix of asset buying, zero rate, in future

The BOJ’s Kuroda is speaking next, due at 0635GMT

cryptocurrency everytime
  • #8,763
  • Sep 18, 2013 11:17pm Sep 18, 2013 11:17pm
Quoting Mad Russian
Hello , looking to long one at this level 9454-55{image}
Wherever you go, there you are.
  • #8,764
  • Sep 18, 2013 11:21pm Sep 18, 2013 11:21pm
Quoting TraderPablo
{quote} this being an exception http://www.theguardian.com/world/201...rship-no-sales
http://www.autoblog.com/2013/08/01/f...s-more-profit/
Wherever you go, there you are.
  • #8,765
  • Sep 18, 2013 11:21pm Sep 18, 2013 11:21pm
Maybe UJ good for short
Wherever you go, there you are.
  • #8,766
  • Sep 18, 2013 11:43pm Sep 18, 2013 11:43pm
Quoting milam
{quote} http://www.autoblog.com/2013/08/01/f...s-more-profit/

http://autos.aol.com/cars-Ferrari-F1...oupe/overview/

or this1

http://autos.aol.com/cars-Lamborghin...2013/overview/
  • #8,767
  • Sep 18, 2013 11:48pm Sep 18, 2013 11:48pm
Quoting milam
Maybe UJ good for short

Hello

Everybody is saying down move ahead

come on YEN Masters kick start the printing machine:nerd:
  • #8,768
  • Sep 18, 2013 11:56pm Sep 18, 2013 11:56pm
Quoting eliteincome
{quote} Hello Everybody is saying down move ahead come on YEN Masters kick start the printing machine:nerd:
uj
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy-d1-pepperstone-financial-pty[1].png Size: 53 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy-h4-pepperstone-financial-pty[1].png Size: 57 KB
Wherever you go, there you are.
  • #8,769
  • Sep 19, 2013 12:06am Sep 19, 2013 12:06am
two charts from me
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd.gif Size: 73 KB

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd.gif Size: 69 KB
"You have to BE before you can DO, and DO before you can HAVE." Zig Ziglar
  • #8,770
  • Sep 19, 2013 12:16am Sep 19, 2013 12:16am
Quoting godim
{quote} Yes. It happens to the price reverses the trend for three days. But this is rare. I think we UpLeg, UpSwing and UpTrend. This can continue for at least 6 days or 366 pips. Remains least 3 days and at least 200 pips. {image} {image}
taken from the color images
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd.gif Size: 50 KB

Attached Image


possibility to continue the upward movement is more than 35%
"You have to BE before you can DO, and DO before you can HAVE." Zig Ziglar
  • #8,771
  • Sep 19, 2013 12:26am Sep 19, 2013 12:26am
Quoting godim
{quote} Two colored pictures from me. {image} On Monday, the price has to decide whether it will continue over the red line or break through the blue. {image} I wish you a successful week.

Now clearly seen how "the price ahead of the time"
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd.gif Size: 125 KB

again from the color images
"You have to BE before you can DO, and DO before you can HAVE." Zig Ziglar
  • #8,772
  • Sep 19, 2013 12:39am Sep 19, 2013 12:39am
is the ozzy losing its strength?
Wherever you go, there you are.
  • #8,773
  • Sep 19, 2013 12:44am Sep 19, 2013 12:44am
Quoting milam
{quote} Good post my friend. I have to say only this: 1 Divergence does not mean prices will reverse, it mean more that price are slowing down. 2 What did happen before the run? On the 4h tf I can see only HH's and HL's. 3 From the last swing low until before the run, if you draw a TL, that line never got broke and even when it does, bulls are still in control till prices testes the strength of the BEARs at the recent high or by undershoot/ overshoot it. This is what I mean by "reading the price".

Hi Milam,

thank you very much for answering :-)


Yes, definitively, Divergence is a bitch. Oftentimes we simply only see momentum recharging, when we see Divergence.

The observations regarding HH and HL and trendlines are all valid. Hehehe, but it is not the way I trade. I am fishing the tops and bottoms. I know, that it is risky. But it was never my business, to wait for confirmation, because often enough, when we think, we got confirmation, the best part of the move was already done.

I am mainly a mean reverting, anti-trend trader.

The reason I do bleed a bit at the moment, simply is, that I scaled in into some positions, and in the moment, when I was fairly loaded, they ignited momentum. Can happen........


Some advocate to not trade anti-trend strategies. They do instead advocate the use of trading with the trend.

But simple question here is: when does a trend start, when does a trend end. Add to that problem the fact, that market is most of the time ranging. In ranging markets trend trading techniques are in for some spankings.


I tried to position for some larger directional moves to the downside in EU and GU. My drawdown of all open positions so far is around 13%. It is nothing I would not manage to handle. Long term positioning oftentimes comes with a bit of drawdown in the starting phase. But I have to admit: I had that :-)

Out of my sight, using my methods and concepts, the fault was not attributed to reading some PA wrong. It was attributed to the fact, that I did ignore some BIG warnings from the sentiment side, as well as closing out the possibility of zero-tapering. And besides of that, it was ignoring the sign, that, like as the last times FED announced QE's, PA was pretty same: fencing in the shorts, building pressure up to give them no opportunity to abandon their positions, and then igniting momentum.

Think about it this way:

what would PA have done, besides all the HH and HL and the trendline, when FED had decided to taper very big, say 10-15 billion per month? I think price would have made a very LL in short time.

Best decision would have been to stay away as you did and look for the opportunities after the event.



But anyway - maybe it will pay out, when I change my strategy a bit here, when trying to position long time. Can tell you, only have headaches from time to time with my long time positions.

Will think about this - one strategy could be, to attribute a smaller amount of money to the "reverting phase" of the trade, and boster then the position up later on after confirmation.

Have to work that out. Normally I do not add to position when price is on the way. What I do in such cases is, to trade the same instrument then on much smaller TF's actively and letting the initial position do its work.


Did I say "GOOD MORNING" already?
  • #8,774
  • Sep 19, 2013 12:48am Sep 19, 2013 12:48am
Quoting godim
two charts from me {image} {image}

good work Godim


thanks for sharing
  • #8,775
  • Sep 19, 2013 12:49am Sep 19, 2013 12:49am
Quoting godim
{quote} taken from the color images {image} {image} possibility to continue the upward movement is more than 35%

my EW supports that view
  • #8,776
  • Sep 19, 2013 12:52am Sep 19, 2013 12:52am
Dear friends,
Starting with today disaster that hurted many retail trader, my indicators for global stock market indicate that we are about to resume bull market...


Money Flow (Generic) :
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: `1.png Size: 177 KB


Prime Market & Emerging Market :
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: `2.png Size: 107 KB


International Stock :
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: `3.png Size: 110 KB


Commodity :
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: `4.png Size: 113 KB
  • #8,777
  • Sep 19, 2013 12:57am Sep 19, 2013 12:57am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} Hi Milam, thank you very much for answering :-) Yes, definitively, Divergence is a bitch. Oftentimes we simply only see momentum recharging, when we see Divergence. The observations regarding HH and HL and trendlines are all valid. Hehehe, but it is not the way I trade. I am fishing the tops and bottoms. I know, that it is risky. But it was never my business, to wait for confirmation, because often enough, when we think, we got confirmation, the best part of the move was already done. I am mainly a mean reverting, anti-trend trader. The...

YES, YOU DID SAY GOOD MORNING, I COULD HEAR IT HERE......
Wherever you go, there you are.
  • #8,778
  • Sep 19, 2013 1:11am Sep 19, 2013 1:11am
Quoting milam
{quote} when the economy is bad it is not bad for the rich people, normally in those period they make more money, so I would not be surprise if their sales went up.

That is very true.

Have to look if I find it. There was a nice statistic, that over the course of the last 5 years the super rich and the rich got exceptionally more wealthy, whereas the John Dow got poorer.
  • #8,779
  • Sep 19, 2013 1:12am Sep 19, 2013 1:12am
Gold daily TF

some channels and lines
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Chart_XAU_USD_Daily_snapshot.png Size: 81 KB
  • #8,780
  • Sep 19, 2013 1:17am Sep 19, 2013 1:17am
Quoting milam
{quote} uj {image} {image}

Consider the macro-economic situation Japan and USA are in:

Japan is way more in need to inflate the debt away

Japan has a Fukushima problem; in this way they have a big energy problem

Japan is commodities poor, whereas USA is commodities rich

Yen is no reserve currency, whereas USD is
6 traders viewing now