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Help Me Establish The GbpUsd After Dinner Club 40 replies

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The Club!

  • #8,701
  • Sep 18, 2013 1:28pm Sep 18, 2013 1:28pm
Good morning.
Wherever you go, there you are.
  • #8,702
  • Sep 18, 2013 1:36pm Sep 18, 2013 1:36pm
Bear market? yes right....
Wherever you go, there you are.
  • #8,703
  • Sep 18, 2013 1:39pm Sep 18, 2013 1:39pm
Take a good picture of this week-end gap and of this conference effect on ALL your charts. See how ALL is correlated. Take the measurements. Screen shot it. Fill-in your xls sheets. This is very good opportunity to measure the markets correlation (ccy, commodities, stocks, whatever you usualy trade) and the timing or lag between the markets reaction from one to other. This helps in detecting proxies and set-up a system.

Do this before it diseaper from your tick chart where you'got the full details, timing and range of the move. Otherwise it will be to be dealt with history database.

These current ranges (week-end gap and now) can assist in determining next targets, since this debate is now the most market mover.

DHT, would you please mind asking Santelli what is the coefficient we should apply on our measurements to get ready for the next debate, that seems would deliver much more volatility ? unless your algo can deliver that? lol

Next debate, I'm not taking any risk: I'm setting DOUBLE DIRECTION entries all across the board on ALL instruments I can see in my broker listing. Tight SL on both direction and tight trailing stop DIRECTLY at the pending order booking.

Surely SLs of the contrary direction will be hit. But I' don't care to pay a little "premium" to enter such deal. One way or other, somehow a direction will rocket up to the sky of the divergence.

What is sure is that I now definitely know what can make a kiwi transforming into a flying engine...
  • #8,704
  • Sep 18, 2013 1:40pm Sep 18, 2013 1:40pm
as you peel off to rest - remember the Asian session is going to react to the news in ~3hrs.
cryptocurrency everytime
  • #8,705
  • Sep 18, 2013 1:41pm Sep 18, 2013 1:41pm
Quoting venzen
{quote} night DHT i'm out too.
Night dude,

Just noticed something:
UJ monthly - far from bullish ; candlestick patterns, fibos, and internals...

Not an addict... Not an addict...
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #8,706
  • Sep 18, 2013 1:47pm Sep 18, 2013 1:47pm
Quoting Delta1One
Take a good picture of this week-end gap and of this conference effect on ALL your charts. See how ALL is correlated. Take the measurements. Screen shot it. Fill-in your xls sheets. This is very good opportunity to measure the markets correlation (ccy, commodities, stocks, whatever you usualy trade) and the timing or lag between the markets reaction from one to other. This helps in detecting proxies and set-up a system. Do this before it diseaper from your tick chart where you'got the full details, timing and range of the move. Otherwise it will...
Bro i think taper is off the cards for the foreseeable future
Plenty of other drama on tap, including but not limited to: obmamacare/budget debate, debt ceiling, german elections, italian political disasters, greek debt issues resurging, japan tax issues, fuk-u-shima contamination...just to name a few in my currently sleep deprived state
Good times!
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #8,707
  • Sep 18, 2013 1:48pm Sep 18, 2013 1:48pm
Quoting theDHT
dont chase this market... you will thank yourself later if you just get up and walk away from your terminal right now, especially if you are hurting...
Wherever you go, there you are.
  • #8,708
  • Sep 18, 2013 1:52pm Sep 18, 2013 1:52pm
Quoting Vinnyvagus
After reading this thread. I've made Coyote my profile picture! I'm holding off placing any trades with the USD at the moment. As much as I think the USD will bounce back I don't have much of an insight or opinion when that will be and therefore I guess its all about being patient and waiting right? It could be hours or days until it turns around...or longer(?) I'm kinda new to Forex trading so I'm just watching and learning to see how the market and charts react to this news.
Wherever you go, there you are.
  • #8,709
  • Sep 18, 2013 1:55pm Sep 18, 2013 1:55pm
Quoting venzen
as you peel off to rest - remember the Asian session is going to react to the news in ~3hrs.
Hey Ven,

How would you anticipate Asian session reaction on this? I guess most players were already in this move since they plays across the clock of time zones.

Now the news is priced in already. So will the Asian session rather plays the card of the pullback ?
  • #8,710
  • Sep 18, 2013 2:01pm Sep 18, 2013 2:01pm
Quoting LCForex
Guys be carefull, this will keep going. Regars,

Hi LC,

welcome on board.

Looking forward to see more of your counts :-)


TAKE CARE

Markus
  • #8,711
  • Sep 18, 2013 2:07pm Sep 18, 2013 2:07pm
Now is time to sit back and wait for price to tell you what to do.

Important levels now:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd-d1-pepperstone-financial-pty-3[1].png Size: 64 KB
Wherever you go, there you are.
  • #8,712
  • Sep 18, 2013 2:10pm Sep 18, 2013 2:10pm
Quoting theDHT
{quote} Bro i think taper is off the cards for the foreseeable future Plenty of other drama on tap, including but not limited to: obmamacare/budget debate, debt ceiling, german elections, italian political disasters, greek debt issues resurging, japan tax issues, fuk-u-shima contamination...just to name a few in my currently sleep deprived state Good times!
I'm not sure taper is off the cards. It is just not sustainable to keep on full gas pedal down the floor with asset purchase program. It will have to stop.

Let's wait to see next end quarter economy results, specially labour recovery. And as you said, lot of news will make us head other direction, which will leave all the required room for more surprise for who may forgot about tapering.
  • #8,713
  • Sep 18, 2013 2:11pm Sep 18, 2013 2:11pm
Quoting Vinnyvagus
After reading this thread. I've made Coyote my profile picture! I'm holding off placing any trades with the USD at the moment. As much as I think the USD will bounce back I don't have much of an insight or opinion when that will be and therefore I guess its all about being patient and waiting right? It could be hours or days until it turns around...or longer(?) I'm kinda new to Forex trading so I'm just watching and learning to see how the market and charts react to this news.

Hi Vinnyvagus,

welcome on board.


Feel free to share your opinion and trading ideas here. As you can see today, even the old rabbits are bleeding a bit.


Am in full "hedging" and "fighting" mode in the moment to control my leverage and to bring risk down.

Man, have I be wrong the last days.



Isnt't it funny, in the aftermath, that Goldman a few days back, upped the targets for EURUSD against 1.40?

Isn't it funny, how the big boys allegedly do not know the decision beforehand, although half of the FED is Goldman owned?

Isn't it funny, how they "managed" to keep the pressure on EURUSD in the right direction, to avoid that the shorts get a good chance to bail out a bit? They trapped the shorts and ignited the momentum.

Isn't it funny, that someone of the Gold traders profited handsomely right before the decision? http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-0...t-gold-traders


Rigged game
  • #8,714
  • Sep 18, 2013 2:14pm Sep 18, 2013 2:14pm
Good evening traedorians,peace and pips be upon u
well i hope this is really the case regarding the carnage
was that Ben Bernanke speaking or Big Bang?
better be not enough salt than too much salt
  • #8,715
  • Sep 18, 2013 2:19pm Sep 18, 2013 2:19pm
Quoting bzzz
Good evening traedorians,peace and pips be upon u well i hope this is really the case regarding the carnage was that Ben Bernanke speaking or Big Bang?
lol
Wherever you go, there you are.
  • #8,716
  • Sep 18, 2013 2:26pm Sep 18, 2013 2:26pm
Trying to get a grip on the situation now:

My mean reverting model in such a situation is not worth much, because such strong directional moves mess the market profiles up.

Weekly MMSMP is in the + 2SD to +3SD range. *3SD at 3590

Daily MMSMP was at the +3SD @ 3528, even so the 4h MMSMP (+3SD at 3524)


So from this site pretty high shorting signal



Murrey Math on M15 to H4 is open to 3550

Break of 3550 opens 3672, which is 8/8 on daily and weekly, and 4/8 on monthly



EW is now open to quiet multiple interpretations.

To keep the overall bearish assessment I provide here now a count, which sees us wave Y of a broad WXY wave 2 up.

In this wave Y, we may be in the wave C impulse of an ABC zigzag.

Targets for this C wave impulse may be in the 36x-37x range


4h EU chart
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Chart_EUR_USD_4 Hours_snapshot.png Size: 61 KB
  • #8,717
  • Sep 18, 2013 2:27pm Sep 18, 2013 2:27pm
Quoting infinitus
{quote} They trapped the shorts and ignited the momentum.

Good post, it says it all.

No it is not funny, it is REAL funny.
Wherever you go, there you are.
  • #8,718
  • Sep 18, 2013 2:30pm Sep 18, 2013 2:30pm
EU weekly fib fans

right at resistance

when the black one breaks now, next comes in around the 380 mark (another black and the blue one)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Chart_EUR_USD_Weekly_snapshot.png Size: 207 KB
  • #8,719
  • Sep 18, 2013 2:35pm Sep 18, 2013 2:35pm
Quoting milam
{quote} Good post, it says it all. No it is not funny, it is REAL funny.

Am asking me right now, how stupid it was to short into that. Man, I can be so stubborn LOL

This morning I prepared the sentiment site on my blog, clearly seeing, that between 65 and 70% of the retails were short. How clear have the indication to be to not ignore it? LOL
  • #8,720
  • Sep 18, 2013 2:40pm Sep 18, 2013 2:40pm
Do you remember my "Journey to Africa" chart, I showed frequently?


Here we are:

Again price has lost the battle at the Rubicon line, and is heading again towards the North Sea line, which comes in around 359x

2 daily chart EU
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Chart_EUR_USD_2 Days_snapshot.png Size: 101 KB
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