Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno | Page 132 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Supply and Demand Zones 57 replies

Price movement as a function of Supply and Demand 43 replies

Supply and demand zones and EW principles 1 reply

How Markets Work, in a Nutshell! 32 replies

Demand and Supply 1 reply

Attachments: Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno
Exit Attachments

Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno

  • #2,621
  • Sep 18, 2013 4:22am Sep 18, 2013 4:22am
Hi
news has given an opportunity maybe
any advice would be nice
Photize
Of course there is a nice round number involved 1.60
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 9797975526_9f16dccd83_b.jpg Size: 132 KB
  • #2,622
  • Sep 18, 2013 4:32am Sep 18, 2013 4:32am
Not sure if anyone is trading Brent but there seem to be short setups on the Daily and H4.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: BRENT.png Size: 29 KB


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: BRENT H4.png Size: 29 KB


And Alfonso, thanks for your encouragement, they mean a lot! I'm still in the process of learning, and when I do achieve consistent success in this I'll not forget that you played a huge part in it with your teachings and corrections.
  • #2,623
  • Sep 18, 2013 4:36am Sep 18, 2013 4:36am
Quoting Ranagol
Hi ar58, I wouldn't go short on GBPUSD for a number of reasons. {image} {image} 1. Due to the weekend gap, price took out weekly and daily supply which tells me demand is in control. 2. Thanks to this the weekly demand below is now valid, same goes for that daily speedbump just below price. 3. Tomorrow there's MPC and FOMC news coming out, both having a high impact on the GBPUSD. So if you want to go short now, there's not a lot of room to do so, plus the news could kick you out of your trades in a heartbeat.
Thank you Ranagol....points taken on board ..and I had been too generous with the daily supply level which I have corrected now...thankyou. Can you let me have your thoughts on the way I was proposing to go short i.e the strategy points/questions that I had as I want to understand the correct way to do things? Would really appreciate your take on this. Thanks.
  • #2,624
  • Sep 18, 2013 4:44am Sep 18, 2013 4:44am
Quoting Myst1z
Not sure if anyone is trading Brent but there seem to be short setups on the Daily and H4. {image} {image} And Alfonso, thanks for your encouragement, they mean a lot! I'm still in the process of learning, and when I do achieve consistent success in this I'll not forget that you played a huge part in it with your teachings and corrections.
Hy Ivan!
I agree with your analysis on Brent, I see the same levels. So I have set an order on that H4 supply you marked on your charts. I did attach mine with the same explanations you made I beleive, only attached H4 chart.

  1. There were 2 nice H4 short opportunities on Brent (UKOIL on other brokers)
  2. Both H4 supply levels were valid, removing previous low, supply being respected, demand being taken out.

Now there is a new H4 supply level that respects the H4 TL. I do have an order there if conditions do not change. Same as Ivan (Myst)

Let's see what happens!
Alfonso

P.S. You don't need to thank me for anything my friend. You are the one learning and pulling the trigger, so the merits are yours!

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 154 KB
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #2,625
  • Sep 18, 2013 4:46am Sep 18, 2013 4:46am
Quoting panoramia
{quote} Thanks for your comments, I really appreciate that, it helps me and others to keep on trading SD levels. I've learnt through experience, most of them bad ones, like most traders out there, that once I have risked my 1% on a trade, it's a money lost. Whatever happens is a bonus. Trading is a numbers game. There is nothing worst than can happen to you than having a great entry and be stopped at Breakeven to see your trade dropping like a rock. This is why I am holding, a breakeven hurts me much more than a loss. A loss is assumed at the moment...
Well, I'm not 100% against moving SL to BE, but it has to be with solid reasons. Of course it's all up to the trader himself to adapt a style of trading that suits himself, whether he wants to babysit the trade, look at any opposing PA that'd invalidate the trade that's taken, or simply walk away after orders were placed.

But again, in the trading world, things are always evolving. We're taking entries based on PA to the left, and in essense, the exits should also be based on what price does next. Of course the targets/Stops should be based on the PA to the left, but what happens next could always change, and the PA will always play its role to tell us that.

All in All, there's no right or wrong, yes or no in this business. It's all up to the trader himself to decide, what to do now, what to do next.


Knowing is not enough; we must apply. Willing is not enough; we must do.
  • #2,626
  • Sep 18, 2013 4:51am Sep 18, 2013 4:51am
Quoting photize
Hi news has given an opportunity maybe any advice would be nice Photize Of course there is a nice round number involved 1.60 {image}
Well I went off and did the evaluation as the 1st post was rushed due to the market moving quickly.
Seems there's a trendline still holding
Also on H4 the zones are stacked and compressed (used so price may shoot through
thx Photize

update I'll try and be a bit more dilligent and robotic next time :-)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 9798198335_a4c8b60c8c_h.jpg Size: 349 KB
  • #2,627
  • Sep 18, 2013 5:03am Sep 18, 2013 5:03am
Quoting Myst1z
{quote} In the same trade for the same reasons. {image}
Hi guys,
execuse me for this little silly picture that I've attached but can you check that leopard pattern marked by me on Alfonso's chart?
Is it previous valid H4 speedbump supply now taken out by lower H4 demand?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: leopard.png Size: 88 KB
:: everything is awesome ::
  • #2,628
  • Sep 18, 2013 5:05am Sep 18, 2013 5:05am
Quoting panoramia
{quote} Boby! It's broken now, NOT at the moment of entry it was not broken, it was a valid entry. Read and watch the post on Monday morning please. It's valid. It would have not been valid now because the TL has been broken, but I was triggered on Sunday night, so it was valid. Check the posts and analysis, you will see it's a correct entry. Once I am in the trade, 1% is lost, so whatever happens happens! Think like a robot, behave like a robot! Leave the emotions for your wife/husband and your leisure time! Alfonso

yes, i see now. Thank you!
  • #2,629
  • Sep 18, 2013 5:18am Sep 18, 2013 5:18am
Quoting Black Fox
{quote} Hi guys, execuse me for this little silly picture that I've attached but can you check that leopard pattern marked by me on Alfonso's chart? Is it previous valid H4 speedbump supply now taken out by lower H4 demand? {image}
I'll try and help
It was a supply shown by price action, it was not a speed bump as the road did not continue up,
As for validation it did not break any previous demand below so not really validated.
Photize
oh forgot YES !
  • #2,630
  • Sep 18, 2013 5:50am Sep 18, 2013 5:50am
Quoting panoramia
{quote} Hy Ivan! I agree with your analysis on Brent, I see the same levels. So I have set an order on that H4 supply you marked on your charts. I did attach mine with the same explanations you made I beleive, only attached H4 chart. There were 2 nice H4 short opportunities on Brent (UKOIL on other brokers) Both H4 supply levels were valid, removing previous low, supply being respected, demand being taken out.Now there is a new H4 supply level that respects the H4 TL. I do have an order there if conditions do not change. Same as Ivan (Myst) Let's...
Alfonso,

I see the clear rules that this posible trade will respect. But I wonder if itsn't too low in the curve... Isn't it close there a D1 demand level?


Thank for your help. Just trying to understand the whole estrategy, which it seems to me plenty of sense, but still some doubts...

Toni
  • #2,631
  • Sep 18, 2013 5:56am Sep 18, 2013 5:56am
Quoting photize
{quote} I'll try and help It was a supply shown by price action, it was not a speed bump as the road did not continue up, As for validation it did not break any previous demand below so not really validated. Photize oh forgot YES !
Totally agree with you Photize. But also I think it was too low in the curve. D1 demand zone very close, so it's not allowed to sell there altough this supply level had absorved a demand level. For selling I think you need at least this D1 demand level been removed...

Sorry If I'm wrong, but I think that's pretty clear.



Toni
  • #2,632
  • Sep 18, 2013 6:23am Sep 18, 2013 6:23am
Now that the low on EURGBP H4 is taken out, the H4 supply zone is valid for a short. However I can't help feeling uneasy about the way it is rounding down with decreasing downward momentum (this would appear as bullish divergence on indicators), this could sometimes spell accumulation. Nevertheless we're still some distance away before the next daily speed bump demand (which could break cuz speed bumps tend to break when counter trend) around 0.832, RR is good, and rules are rules so I believe its a trade worth taking. Comments are welcome please!

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURGBP.png Size: 40 KB
  • #2,633
  • Sep 18, 2013 6:46am Sep 18, 2013 6:46am
Quoting forexdaist
{quote} Alfonso, I see the clear rules that this posible trade will respect. But I wonder if itsn't too low in the curve... Isn't it close there a D1 demand level? Thank for your help. Just trying to understand the whole estrategy, which it seems to me plenty of sense, but still some doubts... Toni
Toni. look at the higher timeframes on Brent, and see where we are in those higher timeframes, you will see the reason for that short.

Brent was rallying into higher timeframe areas really strong, fear of oil prices raising because of Syria war. Now that that fear is relaxed brent is reacting to higher timeframe areas.

I am done for today, finnished long time ago but I was working on a personal project. It's beach and sport time after my lunch.
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #2,634
  • Sep 18, 2013 6:49am Sep 18, 2013 6:49am
Quoting panoramia
{quote} Looking for price to go past that gap as well, I had the TP there because I initially set my TP to a fix RR ratio and then analyze it more in detail to set it correctly. I will manage my SL above new supply areas if formed, else I will not move it. Let's see what happens. The thing about that gap is that it's a D1 demand speedbump, so we need to pay close attention to it. Valid D1 demand speedbump, I do not want to go against that. It will be a nice target for a non-greedy trade I am glad you took that CADJPY short Ivan. It looks like you...
Alfonso, sorry for offtopic! Which software you use for add notes and arrows on your chart? If you use mt4, have you any scripts for do that?
  • #2,635
  • Sep 18, 2013 6:51am Sep 18, 2013 6:51am
Quoting bobyv87
{quote} Alfonso, sorry for offtopic! Which software you use for add notes and arrows on your chart? If you use mt4, have you any scripts for do that?
I mentioned it a couple of times throughout the thread, it's Jing, it's free
http://www.techsmith.com/download/jing/

Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #2,636
  • Sep 18, 2013 7:04am Sep 18, 2013 7:04am
Quoting panoramia
{quote} I mentioned it a couple of times throughout the thread, it's Jing, it's free http://www.techsmith.com/download/jing/ Alfonso
Hi
You can always use greenshot also free http://getgreenshot.org/
Nice opensource capture with printscreen edit and upload to where ever I use Flickr they are giving 1TB free lol
And also offers an automatic resize option of 6 different sizes ,
Hope it helps
Photize
  • #2,637
  • Sep 18, 2013 7:16am Sep 18, 2013 7:16am
Quoting forexdaist
{quote} Totally agree with you Photize. But also I think it was too low in the curve. D1 demand zone very close, so it's not allowed to sell there altough this supply level had absorved a demand level. For selling I think you need at least this D1 demand level been removed... Sorry If I'm wrong, but I think that's pretty clear. Toni
I thought so too it was too close to D1 demand zone.
But to be honest, for me it was very weak H4 supply and I would wait for price to penetrate D1 supply before I go long AUD/NZD.
:: everything is awesome ::
  • #2,638
  • Edited 7:31am Sep 18, 2013 7:19am | Edited 7:31am
Quoting Myst1z
Now that the low on EURGBP H4 is taken out, the H4 supply zone is valid for a short. However I can't help feeling uneasy about the way it is rounding down with decreasing downward momentum (this would appear as bullish divergence on indicators), this could sometimes spell accumulation. Nevertheless we're still some distance away before the next daily speed bump demand (which could break cuz speed bumps tend to break when counter trend) around 0.832, RR is good, and rules are rules so I believe its a trade worth taking. Comments are welcome please!...
Nice spot Myst1z
Just to mention it was your blog I came here from thx.

That euro just broke lol as you stated but on hourly it crashed through 2 demand zones so might pause and carry on, if it comes back I'm gonna take it thx
photize
one thing I would normally be suspicious of zones formed with more than a few candles but looking at the history up and left this pair seems to be respecting such Price action, just a caution :-)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 9799565015_8156c15a78_b.jpg Size: 135 KB
  • #2,639
  • Sep 18, 2013 7:56am Sep 18, 2013 7:56am
Quoting bobyv87
{quote} Alfonso, sorry for offtopic! Which software you use for add notes and arrows on your chart? If you use mt4, have you any scripts for do that?
Try this program http://www.picpick.org/en/ been using it for a couple of years and is free for home users

PicPick is an all-in-one program that provides a full-featured screen capture tool, an intuitive image editor, a color picker, a color palette, a pixel- ruler, a protractor, a crosshair and even a whiteboard.
  • #2,640
  • Sep 18, 2013 11:12am Sep 18, 2013 11:12am
hii all....
try to use jing on chart..
here my POV on USDX and AUDUSD for tommorow FOMC news

USDX
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDX.png Size: 142 KB

price to low on bigger TF demand (mostly used up)
short sell not recommended right?

AUDUSD
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AU_montly.png Size: 101 KB

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AU_weekly.png Size: 110 KB

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUD daily.png Size: 105 KB

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AU_h4.png Size: 102 KB


risky short sell on AUDUSD H4 used demand....ofc with demo account and tight SL... joke2
away from SND analysis, maybe AU,EU bearish for tommorow
(GU rally after MPC Official Bank Rate Votes news)
3 traders viewing now