Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno | Page 131 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Supply and Demand Zones 57 replies

Price movement as a function of Supply and Demand 43 replies

Supply and demand zones and EW principles 1 reply

How Markets Work, in a Nutshell! 32 replies

Demand and Supply 1 reply

Attachments: Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno
Exit Attachments

Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno

  • #2,601
  • Sep 18, 2013 2:43am Sep 18, 2013 2:43am
Quoting panoramia
{quote} Hi Marko, I am short on GBPJPY based on the analysis we made on last Webinar. We just hit the fresh Monthly supply, we created a brand new H4 supply level. I want to short all new valid levels of supply if I am that high in the curve. Remember this is just the way I look at the markets and how the rules are laid out, just following my rules. We were waiting for a brand new H4 supply level, waiting for price to retrace to this new level of supply is the confirmation itself. If we now waited for a confirmation, we'd be waiting for the confirmation...
Good luck Alfonso
Great webinars many thanks for your time and effort.
The GBPJPY is causing some concern on the weekly as the supply on the weekly was not original and has been progressively penetrated. so I wish you luck.

Also just as a tip for the guys can the pair be displayed on charts and vids as sometimes you have to read twice to discover the charts pair (not yours) and often the timescale is missing so in the future when we look back charts are hared to source.For my charts I use SymbolTFAG to display the pair
heres a pic, also my 1st upload to test so hopefully it works
Photize
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 9797095774_7e2e423b25_b.jpg Size: 148 KB
  • #2,602
  • Sep 18, 2013 2:52am Sep 18, 2013 2:52am
Quoting Reacto
{quote} Thanks for sharing your long term analysis Marko, GBP has been really strong lately. Right now price is at supply or close to supply in several pairs, so to take advantage of the 550 pips north, we need to see a solid break first, or a pull-back from current levels. EURGBP has broken demand on H4, so I want to go short, and according to the rules that shout be at the fresh level, but I'm hesitating (a big problem of mine) because we have come down quit q bit and have not seen much correction jet. What is your view on this? {image}
Hi, Reacto.

We all know that the master of this analysis is Alfonso, but i ll offer you my humble view.

if u look on a daily chart of EUR/GBP, u ll see that price has some more room until it reaches fresh demand at 0.8300. If it does reach it, i ll cansel all my shorting position.

On my H4 chart, currently, i m willing to sell near 0.8440-50 area which is not big risk for a potential of 70-80 pips- good RR . However, if the price first reaches daily demand , i ll cansel that short.

Hope this helps,
regards
Marko
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurgbp.png Size: 58 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eurgbp_h4.png Size: 29 KB
  • #2,603
  • Sep 18, 2013 3:02am Sep 18, 2013 3:02am
Quoting panoramia
{quote}...once I am in the trade my 1% is lost, I mean it's money which is already in the markets.
Great advice, I'll keep that in mind.

Btw I keep getting this strange similarity between trading and poker. SD zones are "tells" of the market, that above sentence is like if you "bet" (open a trade), then that money is not yours anymore, it's inside the "pot" (the market) which will belong to the eventual winner of the hand, money management is basically the same with risking no more than a few % etc. It's weird lol

But back on topic, good luck with those trades!
  • #2,604
  • Sep 18, 2013 3:12am Sep 18, 2013 3:12am
Quoting markot
{quote} Hi, Reacto. We all know that the master of this analysis is Alfonso, but i ll offer you my humble view.regards Marko {image} {image}
Hi Marko,

I just wanted to point something out you mentioned, highlighted in yellow above. But it's just that, a clarification, nothing else. I am not the master of analysis, neither from my own way of looking at SD trading nor from any other strategy. My analysis is as humble as yours, I am just trying to share my view, I will be wrong MANY times, but that's part of the game. I am not a master, nor I want to become a master or worshipped like a master of analysis. If at any moment in time I see that I am being considered like that, it will be the moment that I will leave the public trading scene. We're all the same in this thread, we have some rules of behaviour that need to be respected, that's all. Apart from that, we are all "Sensei" like the japanese say. Sensei stands for "born before", that is, any person who is born before you is your sensei, your master, at any field in life, and thus he needs to be respected. You have much more experience than me, so I have to respect your views and comments. I may disagree with them, but respect should always be there.

Apart from that... as far as the EURGBP short is concerned, I am also looking for the same thing to go short, at the D1 supply. Unless the lows are taken out and there is a brand new H4 supply to lean on and still room to previous HTF demand.

Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #2,605
  • Sep 18, 2013 3:16am Sep 18, 2013 3:16am
Quoting panoramia
{quote} Hi Marko, I just wanted to point something out you mentioned, highlighted in yellow above. But it's just that, a clarification, nothing else. I am not the master of analysis, neither from my own way of looking at SD trading nor from any other strategy. My analysis is as humble as yours, I am just trying to share my view, I will be wrong MANY times, but that's part of the game. I am not a master, nor I want to become a master or worshipped like a master of analysis. If at any moment in time I see that I am being considered like that, it will...
)
  • #2,606
  • Sep 18, 2013 3:31am Sep 18, 2013 3:31am
I would have wanted to place a short at the 16 pips H4 supply level on USDCAD, a strong imbalance with a gap as well, but did I? No, I was not allowed to short there.
Why? Because look where the D1 demand is, that would mean I'm trying to go short:

  1. After a big decline in price
  2. Selling into higher timeframe demand

None of the two options are allowed. So what can we do? Nothing.

Having the capacity and emotional control to say NO is more important than pulling the trigger. These rules are key to the SD trading.
Hope all this makes sense, we're just too low and close to D1 demand. We're not allowed, think like a robot!

Alfonso

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot2.png Size: 140 KB
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #2,607
  • Sep 18, 2013 3:36am Sep 18, 2013 3:36am
Quoting panoramia
It looks like I am triggred long on AUDNZD H4. Price hit a D1 demand level, formed a brand new H4 demand level that also took out previous supply and got triggered. I waited for confirmation because there was D1 level on top of level. Let's see if this one wants to work or not. I am just following the rules on the thread, nothing different, step by step. I ask myself the same questions, if I get the right answers, I trigger the same actions. NOTE: the ascending Trendline is NOT correct. I just have it there as a guidance of what I expect price to...

Hi Alfonso
I am a lot slower than you guys this thread seems to move at a pace :-)
Nice charts as always
My 2 pennies worth just for evaluation
Many thanks
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 9797498495_d7bc2e5fff_b.jpg Size: 176 KB
  • #2,608
  • Sep 18, 2013 3:37am Sep 18, 2013 3:37am
Quoting panoramia
It looks like I am triggred long on AUDNZD H4. Price hit a D1 demand level, formed a brand new H4 demand level that also took out previous supply and got triggered. I waited for confirmation because there was D1 level on top of level. Let's see if this one wants to work or not. I am just following the rules on the thread, nothing different, step by step. I ask myself the same questions, if I get the right answers, I trigger the same actions. NOTE: the ascending Trendline is NOT correct. I just have it there as a guidance of what I expect price to...

I triggered AUDNZD too Alfonso, let see if that work. I am not sure about TP. Can i put my TP at next daily supply or next weekly supply?
  • #2,609
  • Sep 18, 2013 3:39am Sep 18, 2013 3:39am
Still holding my EURJPY H4 short we covered the other day on the thread, triggered at Sunday night. I am not allowed to trade at Sunday open but since it was a Japanese Bank holiday, then I decided to take a risk on this one and GBPJPY short. GBPJPY short was triggered yesterday.

My EURJPY short has been doing nothing for 2 days, it looks like it wants to react a little bit.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot2.png Size: 129 KB


I am also short on CADJPY H4, based on an analys we made here the other day. I believe Ivan (Myst) posted this trade also during the weekend. I got triggered as well. The entry was correct because there was no full OHLC candle closed above the descending TL at the entry moment.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot3.png Size: 125 KB


I am now short on 3 Yen pairs. All 3 are up, but I just don't know what is gonna be the result. I followed the rules as you can see, I did nothing different. I will manage my SL soon. Let's see what happens.
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #2,610
  • Sep 18, 2013 3:42am Sep 18, 2013 3:42am
Quoting markot
{quote} Hi, Reacto. We all know that the master of this analysis is Alfonso, but i ll offer you my humble view. if u look on a daily chart of EUR/GBP, u ll see that price has some more room until it reaches fresh demand at 0.8300. If it does reach it, i ll cansel all my shorting position. On my H4 chart, currently, i m willing to sell near 0.8440-50 area which is not big risk for a potential of 70-80 pips- good RR . However, if the price first reaches daily demand , i ll cansel that short. Hope this helps, regards Marko {image} {image}
Thanks Marko, I am always having difficulty taking a trade after a rally like this, although I can see there is still room to D1. I need to be more of a robot.
  • #2,611
  • Sep 18, 2013 3:43am Sep 18, 2013 3:43am
Quoting panoramia
Still holding my EURJPY H4 short we covered the other day on the thread, triggered at Sunday night. I am not allowed to trade at Sunday open but since it was a Japanese Bank holiday, then I decided to take a risk on this one and GBPJPY short. GBPJPY short was triggered yesterday. My EURJPY short has been doing nothing for 2 days, it looks like it wants to react a little bit. {image} I am also short on CADJPY H4, based on an analys we made here the other day. I believe Ivan (Myst) posted this trade also during the weekend. I got triggered as well....
I dont understand Alfonso, these valid Trendlines on entry Tf was broken. Why you take the trade? Thank you!
  • #2,612
  • Sep 18, 2013 3:48am Sep 18, 2013 3:48am
Hello S&D traders! Hello Alfonso, compañero!

I'm posting a trade I've planned to do. I apreciate your comments and recomendations.
There's a nice fresh/original D1 supply level arround 0.8917. Inside there's a clear H4 area where I think it could works a set and forget trade. Is there anyone planning to do so? The only thing it makes me hesitate it's the weekly curve. By there we'll be in the middle, so it's maybe too agresive a sell there. I don't know. What do you think?


thank you, we'll see and try to catch new set ups...

Toni

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Image1.png Size: 104 KB
  • #2,613
  • Sep 18, 2013 3:48am Sep 18, 2013 3:48am
I missed this Russell 2000 index long trade at H4 demand with gap up, which broke all time highs. My entry fell short of a few pips, pity. Next one then! I had placed a manual limit buy order since my EA does not work well with indexes, now my limit order has been cancelled.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 128 KB


I missed another entry on Nasdaq E-Mini H4 long with a gap up. I just missed this one, I had not planned anything there, haven't looked at Nasdaq for some days, busy discconnecting a bit lately.


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot3.png Size: 128 KB


As you can see, it's always the same thing, same rules, same patterns. Supply and demand playing out. Opportunities abound, you just have to be patient and follow the rules

Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #2,614
  • Sep 18, 2013 3:50am Sep 18, 2013 3:50am
Quoting bobyv87
{quote} I dont understand Alfonso, these valid Trendlines on entry Tf was broken. Why you take the trade? Thank you!
Boby! It's broken now, NOT at the moment of entry it was not broken, it was a valid entry. Read and watch the post on Monday morning please. It's valid. It would have not been valid now because the TL has been broken, but I was triggered on Sunday night, so it was valid. Check the posts and analysis, you will see it's a correct entry.

Once I am in the trade, 1% is lost, so whatever happens happens! Think like a robot, behave like a robot! Leave the emotions for your wife/husband and your leisure time!
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #2,615
  • Sep 18, 2013 3:53am Sep 18, 2013 3:53am
Quoting panoramia
Still holding my EURJPY H4 short we covered the other day on the thread, triggered at Sunday night. I am not allowed to trade at Sunday open but since it was a Japanese Bank holiday, then I decided to take a risk on this one and GBPJPY short. GBPJPY short was triggered yesterday. My EURJPY short has been doing nothing for 2 days, it looks like it wants to react a little bit. {image} I am also short on CADJPY H4, based on an analys we made here the other day. I believe Ivan (Myst) posted this trade also during the weekend. I got triggered as well....
Took the CADJPY H4 trade too, but I'm hoping to run it past the gap as the region below is pretty compressed. Will trail stop behind each newly formed supply zone. Thanks for sharing your trades and charts.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: CADJPY.png Size: 36 KB
  • #2,616
  • Sep 18, 2013 3:57am Sep 18, 2013 3:57am
Quoting Myst1z
{quote} Took the CADJPY H4 trade too, but I'm hoping to run it past the gap as the region below is pretty compressed. Will trail stop behind each newly formed supply zone. Thanks for sharing your trades and charts. {image}
Looking for price to go past that gap as well, I had the TP there because I initially set my TP to a fix RR ratio and then analyze it more in detail to set it correctly. I will manage my SL above new supply areas if formed, else I will not move it. Let's see what happens. The thing about that gap is that it's a D1 demand speedbump, so we need to pay close attention to it. Valid D1 demand speedbump, I do not want to go against that. It will be a nice target for a non-greedy trade

I am glad you took that CADJPY short Ivan. It looks like you are following the rules like a robot, and that's great! I am really really happy about it. It makes such a difference when you are patient and believe in something! It's all about emotional control and applying the same rules over and over.

Thank YOU for sharing your views and charts as well, they are most welcome Ivan!
Alfonso

P.S. Just a clarification. On some of my charts I will not have the SL/ENTRY/TP prices because once I am in and set my target, I will hide the lines on MT, I don't want to see what's going on, it will remove my emotions. At the moment of pasting it over here I had already turn the lines off.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 132 KB
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #2,617
  • Sep 18, 2013 3:57am Sep 18, 2013 3:57am
Quoting bobyv87
{quote} I dont understand Alfonso, these valid Trendlines on entry Tf was broken. Why you take the trade? Thank you!
if you are high on the curve and close to daily levels, you can take original AND fresh levels also if the entry timeframe TL is broken, right?
  • #2,618
  • Sep 18, 2013 4:00am Sep 18, 2013 4:00am
Hey Alfonso,

Just dropped by to show my appreciation and gratitude for your efforts.

Hats off for your patience and discipline in following your own rules of trading, and also your selflessness in helping others.

Congrates on the EJ trade, for holding on. I noticed you had a great entry, price went your way, and crawled back up close to your SL. Many traders would've been stopped out at BE. It's a good mindset to consider "1% lost once in trade", so that you don't let emotions get in the way.

Will be following, and learn. Awesome thread Alfonso.

Chao
Knowing is not enough; we must apply. Willing is not enough; we must do.
  • #2,619
  • Sep 18, 2013 4:06am Sep 18, 2013 4:06am
Quoting caparzo
{quote} if you are high on the curve and close to daily levels, you can take original AND fresh levels also if the entry timeframe TL is broken, right?
No Robert. If the Trendline is broken you no longer can go in that direction even if you are high in the curve. The rules would be broken and we do not want to break the rules, NEVER. If I had missed that EJ trade at the moment I took it, I would not have taken it on the retest, why? The TL would have been solidly broken with some closed OHCL candles, no longer valid. It was valid at the first retest WHEN the TL was not broken. In order to go in that TL direction, we need a new level formed and opposing highs/lows broken, in this case lows broken.

It will happen many times that a qucik spike will get you in a level that after 2-3 candles is no longer valid, but if you were in at that valid spiky without the TL being broken, it's a still a valid level. Remember a whole OHCL candle above/below a TL invalides any entry AFTER than happens, not before it happens.

Hope that's clear. Those are the rules posted on #1. I will add this extra clarification later, just in case.
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #2,620
  • Sep 18, 2013 4:14am Sep 18, 2013 4:14am
Quoting keroro0o0o
Hey Alfonso, Just dropped by to show my appreciation and gratitude for your efforts. Hats off for your patience and discipline in following your own rules of trading, and also your selflessness in helping others. Congrates on the EJ trade, for holding on. I noticed you had a great entry, price went your way, and crawled back up close to your SL. Many traders would've been stopped out at BE. It's a good mindset to consider "1% lost once in trade", so that you don't let emotions get in the way. Will be following, and learn. Awesome thread Alfonso....
Thanks for your comments, I really appreciate that, it helps me and others to keep on trading SD levels.

I've learnt through experience, most of them bad ones, like most traders out there, that once I have risked my 1% on a trade, it's a money lost. Whatever happens is a bonus. Trading is a numbers game. There is nothing worst than can happen to you than having a great entry and be stopped at Breakeven to see your trade dropping like a rock. This is why I am holding, a breakeven hurts me much more than a loss. A loss is assumed at the moment of entry, because why do I enter a trade? To get my Risk/Reward, doesn't it? I risk my 1% to get my x%. If I touch my SL too soon, etc, that's just fear taking control.

Thanks again for your comments, they are most welcome!
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
7 traders viewing now