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Mastering the Art of Trading

  • #701
  • Sep 18, 2013 2:04am Sep 18, 2013 2:04am
Quoting pipslearner1
Hi Everybody here, hi Ghous... Was looking for fake breakout n I find a break out in GPB/USD dont really knw if am right, Pls correct me...
The whole Forex world is awaiting the most anticipated news event of 2013, about 9 hours from now, I will be flat, stay flat and read the charts in the aftermath.

I certainly would not be trusting any charts patterns that may or may not have produced a certain price action in the past.

YMMV, or if you know of certain way to trade, speak up now, and not as Harry Hindsight tomorrow.

Regards, E.

MAY THE TREND BE WITH YOU
  • #702
  • Sep 18, 2013 2:34am Sep 18, 2013 2:34am
Quoting pipslearner1
Hi Everybody here, hi Ghous... Was looking for fake breakout n I find a break out in GPB/USD dont really knw if am right, Pls correct me... {image}
It might be. There is a BIG might here. Because there are instances when price will just continue to hang around and do nothing (i.e order accumulation) before we see price breaking down. But yeah, price failing to close under the HHR on the first attempt is generally a good enough bias against shorts for the time being at least.

g.
I believe . . .
  • #703
  • Sep 18, 2013 2:35am Sep 18, 2013 2:35am
Quoting Erebus
{quote} The whole Forex world is awaiting the most anticipated news event of 2013, about 9 hours from now, I will be flat, stay flat and read the charts in the aftermath. I certainly would not be trusting any charts patterns that may or may not have produced a certain price action in the past. YMMV, or if you know of certain way to trade, speak up now, and not as Harry Hindsight tomorrow. Regards, E.
I respect your opinion and I know where you are coming from.

I don't have anything more to say.

g.
I believe . . .
  • #704
  • Sep 18, 2013 2:43am Sep 18, 2013 2:43am
Quoting Pinbar
That is why trading alongside the more experienced traders could be very profitable as well. Which would you rather be part of: the smart minority that fades breakouts or the losing majority that gets caught in false breakouts? Read more: http://www.babypips.com/school/fade-...#ixzz2fCR5SIQT
Sorry PB I think this is a terribly bias and uninformed piece of hack writing. Breakouts can be traded very successfully with the right market conditions.

Creating stereotypes along the lines of Fade trading is intelligent, Breakout trading is stupid is just foolish over simplification and does nothing to help newbies.

Traders would do well not to fall into this false superiority complex.

Much better, IMHO, to be able to identify ranging markets and trending markets and apply the correct strategy at the right time.
  • #705
  • Sep 18, 2013 3:12am Sep 18, 2013 3:12am
Quoting Pinbar
{quote} No actually I am not old school. I am simply an English teacher who knows that the word VIDEO is taken from the Latin word videre, which means to see. Therefore, it is you young whippersnappers who are the young school and, using your native language incorrectly. If indeed English is your native language, if not. Now you know the real deal. It is actually an audio recording only. Anyway you look at it, or don't in this case. Haaaa Excuse the pun.
I would rather call it an AV (Audio Visual). It is a audio commentary that is accompanied by slides (which are visual).
  • #706
  • Sep 18, 2013 3:24am Sep 18, 2013 3:24am
Quoting pipslearner1
Hi Everybody here, hi Ghous... Was looking for fake breakout n I find a break out in GPB/USD dont really knw if am right, Pls correct me... {image}

I would not be in a rush to buy it there.
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  • #707
  • Sep 18, 2013 4:51am Sep 18, 2013 4:51am
Turtle soup and Turtle soup plus one?
Wherever you go, there you are.
  • #708
  • Sep 18, 2013 6:20am Sep 18, 2013 6:20am
Ghous,

Please comment on the fakeout scenario that I have posted.
On the daily chart, price has broken out of the trendline. Many breakout traders would have entered short here and probably kept stops above the high of the breakout bar.
Another bunch of traders would have entered short on the breakout of the low of previous support. So basically all the novices now are short.
I have entered long based on the fakeout scenario that has developed on the 4 hour chart. A daily chart could probably be more definitive. Price is trading away from the 150 ema on the daily chart (not shown) as well as the brn 8.61, both of this could offer
support. I am anticipating a upmove all the way to the high of the breakout bar where all the stops would probably be triggered.

Neytiri
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  • #709
  • Sep 18, 2013 7:24am Sep 18, 2013 7:24am
Quoting Quidsey
{quote} Sorry PB I think this is a terribly bias and uninformed piece of hack writing. Breakouts can be traded very successfully with the right market conditions. Creating stereotypes along the lines of Fade trading is intelligent, Breakout trading is stupid is just foolish over simplification and does nothing to help newbies. Traders would do well not to fall into this false superiority complex. Much better, IMHO, to be able to identify ranging markets and trending markets and apply the correct strategy at the right time.
I think they are talking about jumping in a breakout without a pullback.
Either way, we are fading breakouts.
  • #710
  • Sep 18, 2013 7:56am Sep 18, 2013 7:56am
...hoping i won't get shot down for this, as it's a daily FTSE chart, but would appreciate any comment on this 'top'?
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  • #711
  • Sep 18, 2013 8:19am Sep 18, 2013 8:19am
you've posted a monthly chart
  • #712
  • Sep 18, 2013 8:32am Sep 18, 2013 8:32am
Quoting Brixton
you've posted a monthly chart
yes, sorry. Same query though...
  • #713
  • Sep 18, 2013 10:10am Sep 18, 2013 10:10am
Quoting sidefx
...hoping i won't get shot down for this, as it's a daily FTSE chart, but would appreciate any comment on this 'top'? {image}
I don't know if the mechanics remain the same in such a long timeframe. Theoreticall speaking I'd say yes.
Surely they work in the FTSE as well.
Anyway, I'd be careful to enter short on such a strong rebound on the 6000 level.
My 2c!
  • #714
  • Sep 18, 2013 11:17am Sep 18, 2013 11:17am
Quoting Quidsey
{quote} Sorry PB I think this is a terribly bias and uninformed piece of hack writing. Breakouts can be traded very successfully with the right market conditions. Creating stereotypes along the lines of Fade trading is intelligent, Breakout trading is stupid is just foolish over simplification and does nothing to help newbies. Traders would do well not to fall into this false superiority complex. Much better, IMHO, to be able to identify ranging markets and trending markets and apply the correct strategy at the right time.
I agree.

Its not uncommon to see people brag about their system/method to the extent that they actually start to condemn and criticize every other method that they come across.

There are a million ways to skin this cat, and yes trading breakouts is one hell of an effective method.

Just to clear any confusions out there, trading fake outs isn't like stepping on the tails of well informed breakout traders that know the importance of the action after price breaks through the area to base their decisions on more solid information. Fake outs consume the immature emotional knee jerks that never seem to get short in supply at these swing points and break out areas. Its only natural to expect a lot of emotions and actions from people in the market as well as those on the side lines as price approaches a critical area such as the high/low of a consolidation box or a significant and deep individual swing point.

g.
I believe . . .
  • #715
  • Sep 18, 2013 11:50am Sep 18, 2013 11:50am
Quoting sidefx
...hoping i won't get shot down for this, as it's a daily FTSE chart, but would appreciate any comment on this 'top'? {image}
Not sure if you're referring to the fake out that ocuured off the first swing high, or you're referring to the recent swing high as a potential shorting opportunity.


In case of the former being true:

Yes that was a great fake out that did exactly what it needed to, i.e hit those bar highs at the 6000 area.



In case of the latter being true:

Not on for me. The recent swing high is way too minor to catch my attention.



g.
I believe . . .
  • #716
  • Sep 18, 2013 12:44pm Sep 18, 2013 12:44pm
Quoting Neytiri
Ghous, Please comment on the fakeout scenario that I have posted. On the daily chart, price has broken out of the trendline. Many breakout traders would have entered short here and probably kept stops above the high of the breakout bar. Another bunch of traders would have entered short on the breakout of the low of previous support. So basically all the novices now are short. I have entered long based on the fakeout scenario that has developed on the 4 hour chart. A daily chart could probably be more definitive. Price is trading away from the 150...
Hey Neytiri,

In this case I would simply be more biased towards the story that looks more powerful to me. And a powerful story is always the one that occupies more chart space and time and the one that is more obviously defined.

At one hand, I have an initial breakout followed by a pull back and a hold up to really well defined long term consolidation box and that is running into a swing low.

At the other hand I have a fake out off that swing low (based thus far, on only the initial fake out bar. Given that its the 4H we know that's risky) and heading into all that humongous trouble up above.

I think you can make out which is the more stronger story at play here, up until this point that is.

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g.
I believe . . .
  • #717
  • Sep 18, 2013 3:15pm Sep 18, 2013 3:15pm
Quoting Erebus
{quote} The whole Forex world is awaiting the most anticipated news event of 2013, about 9 hours from now, I will be flat, stay flat and read the charts in the aftermath. I certainly would not be trusting any charts patterns that may or may not have produced a certain price action in the past. YMMV, or if you know of certain way to trade, speak up now, and not as Harry Hindsight tomorrow. Regards, E.
Thanks Erubus... Am just a learner and I appreciate Ghous and every other persons contributing to assist the newbies... Am really learning a lot of things here.. once more thanks
  • #718
  • Sep 18, 2013 3:24pm Sep 18, 2013 3:24pm
Quoting ghous
{quote} It might be. There is a BIG might here. Because there are instances when price will just continue to hang around and do nothing (i.e order accumulation) before we see price breaking down. But yeah, price failing to close under the HHR on the first attempt is generally a good enough bias against shorts for the time being at least. g.
Thanks Ghous... Ghous, You re a Genius... You have really opened my eyes to Forex trading, think am really learning something here... Thanks once more n God Bless
  • #719
  • Sep 18, 2013 3:42pm Sep 18, 2013 3:42pm
Quoting Pinbar
{quote} I would not be in a rush to buy it there. {image}
Thanks Pinbar... I do appreciate everyone... God Bless
  • #720
  • Sep 18, 2013 4:05pm Sep 18, 2013 4:05pm
Quoting ghous
{quote} Not sure if you're referring to the fake out that ocuured off the first swing high, or you're referring to the recent swing high as a potential shorting opportunity. In case of the former being true: Yes that was a great fake out that did exactly what it needed to, i.e hit those bar highs at the 6000 area. In case of the latter being true: Not on for me. The recent swing high is way too minor to catch my attention. g.
Thanks ghous, yes, off the first swing high. Cheers.
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