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Andrews Pitchfork (Median Line)

  • #5,821
  • Sep 17, 2013 7:54am Sep 17, 2013 7:54am
I went with the sure bet, mowed the yard, trimmed the bush and got a hummer...
  • #5,822
  • Sep 17, 2013 8:13am Sep 17, 2013 8:13am
Quoting auxesis
{quote} Basic Median Lines, i.e. pitchforks are intended to be a true leading indicator, showing the direction and probable destination, of the third, in a series of consecutive series of changes of state in price action. Notice I used "changes of state," not necessarily highs or lows. An example, price moving in a directional thrust and then going into a consolidation period/range, the following extension should be a byproduct of the initial two moves (changes of state - thrust and consolidation or retracement) using the starting and ending points...
Pure Gold man. I agree exactly.
The things that we love tell us what we are Thanks Redsword11 and Tim Morge
  • #5,823
  • Sep 18, 2013 3:06am Sep 18, 2013 3:06am
nzdusd daily chart. looks like turning soon?
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  • #5,824
  • Sep 18, 2013 3:16am Sep 18, 2013 3:16am
Quoting trexy123
nzdusd daily chart. looks like turning soon? {image}

potentially - but it's an untested fork and there are plenty of others that could be drawn eg these bigger nzd dailies

not suggesting either is right or wrong but you need to look for validation from the charts - imho three points can make a fork but do not necessarily show the path of price
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  • #5,825
  • Sep 18, 2013 3:23am Sep 18, 2013 3:23am
how about this? am i drawing it correctly?
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  • #5,826
  • Sep 18, 2013 3:34am Sep 18, 2013 3:34am
Quoting trexy123
how about this? am i drawing it correctly? {image}

imho once you have the technically correct low-high-low (or vice versa) there is no "right" or "wrong".

you are looking to define the path of price so you try to find a fork that best does this. as i said previously i try not be too mechanistic and would rather give myself some artistic licence...... forks should not work once or maybe twice - i look for them to continue to work along sliding parallels too

suggest you look at the coghlan capital thread in the commercial section as there are some charts and videos - disclosure, i'm a subscriber.
  • #5,827
  • Sep 18, 2013 7:59pm Sep 18, 2013 7:59pm
Gotta love it!
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"GIVE ME 3 POINTS IN SPACE IN TIME AND WATCH ME CREATE MAGIC."
  • #5,828
  • Sep 19, 2013 12:22am Sep 19, 2013 12:22am
4h charts fresh
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The things that we love tell us what we are Thanks Redsword11 and Tim Morge
  • #5,829
  • Sep 19, 2013 1:32am Sep 19, 2013 1:32am
I also see this fork on AUDUSD 4 hr.
seems we are at an important point.
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  • #5,830
  • Sep 19, 2013 11:14pm Sep 19, 2013 11:14pm
audusd daily. any comments?
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  • #5,831
  • Sep 20, 2013 1:50am Sep 20, 2013 1:50am
scale......

you have a large downtrend with no fork

you have a small uptrend (in terms of the bars you have shown) with a tiny fork tacked on the end

i previously suggested that you checked one of the commercial threads - had you done so you would have found a 240 minute chart and fork showing the uptrend in a tradeable form.
  • #5,832
  • Sep 20, 2013 2:36am Sep 20, 2013 2:36am
Quoting trexy123
audusd daily. any comments? {image}

These forks are very preliminary and don't show much confirmation .
We only have 1 HH and no LH yet , so we can assume we are only in a correction and trend is still down.
Trading from a daily chart is way too risky because of the normally wide stoploss , but you can use it to confirm a change in trend.
In this case I use an AR lines (Green) drawn from the blue ABC points.
If I Fib the (A) , (B) and (C) points I see that a .382 fibretracement is at 0.9510 and a 1.618 price projection from (A),(B) is at 0.9515.
So a lot of confluence in that area , but for trading I look at 4 or 1 hr timeframes , and if possible even lower.
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  • #5,833
  • Sep 20, 2013 2:43am Sep 20, 2013 2:43am
Quoting c49
{quote} These forks are very preliminary and don't show much confirmation . We only have 1 HH and no LH yet , so we can assume we are only in a correction and trend is still down. Trading from a daily chart is way too risky because of the normally wide stoploss , but you can use it to confirm a change in trend. In this case I use an AR lines (Green) drawn from the blue ABC points. If I Fib the (A) , (B) and (C) points I see that a .382 fibretracement is at 0.9510 and a 1.618 price projection from (A),(B) is at 0.9515. So a lot of confluence in that...
what are the coords of your blue fork?
  • #5,834
  • Sep 20, 2013 2:50am Sep 20, 2013 2:50am
Quoting cg uno
{quote} what are the coords of your blue fork?
A point High feb 29 -2012
B point Low june 1 -2012
C point High apr11-2013
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  • #5,835
  • Sep 20, 2013 2:54am Sep 20, 2013 2:54am
Quoting c49
{quote} A point High feb 29 -2012 B point Low june 1 -2012 C point High apr11-2013 {image}
got it - thanks
  • #5,836
  • Sep 20, 2013 6:04am Sep 20, 2013 6:04am
To all:

What characteristics have you discovered about median lines and pitchforks?

For example: The slope of the AC (p0-p2) trendline of a pitchfork equals the slope of the modified schiff of that pitchfork.
"GIVE ME 3 POINTS IN SPACE IN TIME AND WATCH ME CREATE MAGIC."
  • #5,837
  • Sep 20, 2013 6:57pm Sep 20, 2013 6:57pm
Quoting kapital
To all: What characteristics have you discovered about median lines and pitchforks? For example: The slope of the AC (p0-p2) trendline of a pitchfork equals the slope of the modified schiff of that pitchfork.

To clarify, I'm not asking for anything related to price (i.e. price reaching the median line 80% of the time). I'm dealing strictly with the lines.
"GIVE ME 3 POINTS IN SPACE IN TIME AND WATCH ME CREATE MAGIC."
  • #5,838
  • Sep 20, 2013 7:21pm Sep 20, 2013 7:21pm
Another pitchfork characteristic:

The length from a pitchfork's crosshair to the intersecting point of the median line and modified schiff (from pivot B) equals the length of the pitchfork's handle.
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"GIVE ME 3 POINTS IN SPACE IN TIME AND WATCH ME CREATE MAGIC."
  • #5,839
  • Sep 20, 2013 7:33pm Sep 20, 2013 7:33pm
When placed at pivot C, the AB trendline of a pitchfork intersects the median line at the exact spot as the modified schiff. This also measures the length of the pitchfork handle from the crosshair.
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"GIVE ME 3 POINTS IN SPACE IN TIME AND WATCH ME CREATE MAGIC."
  • #5,840
  • Sep 22, 2013 2:45pm Sep 22, 2013 2:45pm
If the probability of price reaching the median line of a pitchfork is 80%, is it safe to say that the probability of price reaching the quartile of a pitchfork is even higher?
"GIVE ME 3 POINTS IN SPACE IN TIME AND WATCH ME CREATE MAGIC."
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