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AUD/USD

  • #65,641
  • Sep 17, 2013 6:02pm Sep 17, 2013 6:02pm
Quoting SpartanTrade
Hey Blackburn i too added long at 9342 weekly R1
Cool...
  • #65,642
  • Sep 17, 2013 6:34pm Sep 17, 2013 6:34pm
Quoting KecoaKecil
{quote} I agree. A lot of speculation going around. I believe opportunities are abundant, so stay out now will not harm us. We can still catch up another profitable movement later. Its just greedy vs fear psychology. Meanwhile, we can do range with suitable tech indicator for small pips, Bollinger or RSI or anything that works best. ^_^

You could also trade some crosses that don't involve the USD. But even those tend to whipsaw with dollar news. I know the feeling of not trading for a day. It's like an addiction. Very hard to resist. But, I've gotten much better at it lately. : )
  • #65,643
  • Sep 17, 2013 6:40pm Sep 17, 2013 6:40pm
Also note that unless the Fed really beats expectations, don't expect a longer term reversal. It may go down briefly and then come back up. But if the Fed disappoints even a little, I expect a huge rally taking out a lot of resistance levels. You're much better off buying the dips here. if you intend to hold positions through the announcement. After the big run up recently, there are too many shorts. There might be a nice short squeeze. If you have an unrealized loss, it might be wise to take that loss and either stay out or go long. While I can't predict what the news will be tomorrow, I suspect that the risk is much lower on the long side of things. Anyone else agree?
  • #65,644
  • Sep 17, 2013 6:49pm Sep 17, 2013 6:49pm
Quoting card
Also note that unless the Fed really beats expectations, don't expect a longer term reversal. It may go down briefly and then come back up. But if the Fed disappoints even a little, I expect a huge rally taking out a lot of resistance levels. You're much better off buying the dips here. if you intend to hold positions through the announcement. After the big run up recently, there are too many shorts. There might be a nice short squeeze. If you have an unrealized loss, it might be wise to take that loss and either stay out or go long. While I can't...
In full agreement. The GAP is still the main worry.
Money Makes Money
  • #65,645
  • Sep 17, 2013 7:23pm Sep 17, 2013 7:23pm
  •  EDG
  • | Joined Feb 2007 | Status: Nothing is fixed. Keep an open mind | 229 Posts
aud near term need to break 9355 resistance to continue advance or retracement likely possible. However, Daily close today above 9300 wll still ensure bull intact.
Hindsight is useless if you never learn anything out from it
  • #65,646
  • Sep 17, 2013 7:30pm Sep 17, 2013 7:30pm
  •  EDG
  • | Joined Feb 2007 | Status: Nothing is fixed. Keep an open mind | 229 Posts
Quoting EDG
aud near term need to break 9355 resistance to continue advance or retracement likely possible. However, Daily close today above 9300 wll still ensure bull intact.
sorry typo error...should be...."need to break above 9360 resistance".....
Hindsight is useless if you never learn anything out from it
  • #65,647
  • Sep 17, 2013 7:45pm Sep 17, 2013 7:45pm
Quoting card
Also note that unless the Fed really beats expectations, don't expect a longer term reversal. It may go down briefly and then come back up. But if the Fed disappoints even a little, I expect a huge rally taking out a lot of resistance levels. You're much better off buying the dips here. if you intend to hold positions through the announcement. After the big run up recently, there are too many shorts. There might be a nice short squeeze. If you have an unrealized loss, it might be wise to take that loss and either stay out or go long. While I can't...
Definitely has been massively priced in already and if the Fed disappoints even in the slightest your absolutely correct to expect a huge rally. The safer option is long if anyone can't resist staying away. Personally I'm bullish medium term and have been from 89 level and depending where we get to before announcement may even add further long positions. Either way I too do not expect a long term reversal if Fed beats expectations bur rather another buying opportunity to add
  • #65,648
  • Sep 17, 2013 7:50pm Sep 17, 2013 7:50pm
Quoting tony95
{quote} I am looking to take out the previous low. Maybe head to close gap.
Just PM, please check it out.
Simple is powerful all the time.
  • #65,649
  • Sep 17, 2013 8:12pm Sep 17, 2013 8:12pm
Quoting card
Also note that unless the Fed really beats expectations, don't expect a longer term reversal. It may go down briefly and then come back up. But if the Fed disappoints even a little, I expect a huge rally taking out a lot of resistance levels. You're much better off buying the dips here. if you intend to hold positions through the announcement. After the big run up recently, there are too many shorts. There might be a nice short squeeze. If you have an unrealized loss, it might be wise to take that loss and either stay out or go long. While I can't...
i dont agree... market's prety much priced in the whole larry summers debacle thinking tapering wont happen or if its gona happen, it would be small...
Also given RBA's Stance that wants to see AUDUSD weaken further...
im actually expecting a huge drop down to 0.90
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #65,650
  • Sep 17, 2013 8:45pm Sep 17, 2013 8:45pm
Aud down today ?
  • #65,651
  • Sep 17, 2013 8:53pm Sep 17, 2013 8:53pm
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} i dont agree... market's prety much priced in the whole larry summers debacle thinking tapering wont happen or if its gona happen, it would be small... Also given RBA's Stance that wants to see AUDUSD weaken further... im actually expecting a huge drop down to 0.90
The expectation for tapering is $15 billion. Although, every article I'm reading says that the Fed will taper more. So, it's not accurate to assume that the market is pricing in a smaller taper. The market has already discounted the RBA's view that the aussie should be weaker. They've been singing that tune for quite some time now. Every time someone from the RBA speaks, that's all they say. It's like a verbal tick they can't seem to get rid of. If anything, the market has discounted that.
  • #65,652
  • Sep 17, 2013 9:55pm Sep 17, 2013 9:55pm
Quoting card
{quote} The expectation for tapering is $15 billion. Although, every article I'm reading says that the Fed will taper more. So, it's not accurate to assume that the market is pricing in a smaller taper. The market has already discounted the RBA's view that the aussie should be weaker. They've been singing that tune for quite some time now. Every time someone from the RBA speaks, that's all they say. It's like a verbal tick they can't seem to get rid of. If anything, the market has discounted that.
That's right .
And RBA talk of a lower AUD when it was above 1.05 had no affect and it'll have zero affect at these levels too .
Like most Central banks in this era they know that Markets know that intervention or even jaw-boning is bordering on futility .
  • #65,653
  • Sep 17, 2013 9:57pm Sep 17, 2013 9:57pm
Quoting Balmain Boy
{quote} That's right . And RBA talk of a lower AUD when it was above 1.05 had no affect and it'll have zero affect at these levels too . Like most Central banks in this era they know that Markets knows that intervention is bordering on futility .
and yet it dropped from 1.05 down to as low as 0.88 now thats what i call as no effect lol
guess what Market can be wrong... the guys in RBA gets to decide the interest rates and monetary supply afterall....
so if they say its still high. they mean it
problem is do traders have the patience to see this through....
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #65,654
  • Sep 17, 2013 10:33pm Sep 17, 2013 10:33pm
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} and yet it dropped from 1.05 down to as low as 0.88 now thats what i call as no effect lol guess what Market can be wrong... the guys in RBA gets to decide the interest rates and monetary supply afterall.... so if they say its still high. they mean it problem is do traders have the patience to see this through....
The drop was due to a slowdown in China, for the most part. Not really the RBA rhetoric. Had there not been a slowdown in China, the RBA would have had no reason to lower rates. Remember how for months the BOJ kept saying that the Yen was too strong? And yet, the yen kept making new highs rill it reached around 76? It's only after they did something that the yen dropped. And besides, didn't they just say last night that the Aussie still needs to weaken? Didn't have much of an affect. Not sure why they will react to that news tomorrow....
  • #65,655
  • Sep 17, 2013 10:40pm Sep 17, 2013 10:40pm
Those who know the rba WELL ENOUGH can tell you that they are the most outdated, backwards organisation in the country! The reason for the decline had nothing to do with RBA but more about the overtaxing former THANK GOD gov't. The RBA started their cutting way too late and now have gone to the limit, maybe even more than they would have needed to if they started earlier. There will be no further cuts as much as they won't discount it and their want of a weaker dollar will have no bearing in the market.
  • #65,656
  • Sep 17, 2013 10:42pm Sep 17, 2013 10:42pm
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} and yet it dropped from 1.05 down to as low as 0.88 now thats what i call as no effect lol guess what Market can be wrong... the guys in RBA gets to decide the interest rates and monetary supply afterall.... so if they say its still high. they mean it problem is do traders have the patience to see this through....

That's a ridiculous selective memory your displaying .
It took over 2 years and 7 cuts to the Official Cash Rate before we saw a sustained move below $1.02 .
Falling demand for our resource exports and a slow grind up in Unemployment combined
with the gradual narrowing of Interest Rate differentials is what eventually caused the Aussie to weaken .
  • #65,657
  • Sep 17, 2013 10:53pm Sep 17, 2013 10:53pm
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  • #65,658
  • Sep 17, 2013 11:22pm Sep 17, 2013 11:22pm
Quoting Balmain Boy
{quote} That's a ridiculous selective memory your displaying . It took over 2 years and 7 cuts to the Official Cash Rate before we saw a sustained move below $1.02 . Falling demand for our resource exports and a slow grind up in Unemployment combined with the gradual narrowing of Interest Rate differentials is what eventually caused the Aussie to weaken .
Very refreshing commentary Balmain Boy
  • #65,659
  • Sep 17, 2013 11:22pm Sep 17, 2013 11:22pm
Still trading that channel i pointed out yesterday... took 50pips last night from 0.9291 and re-entered again... (0.9355)

Target +100 @ 161.8% ext (0.9460)
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  • #65,660
  • Sep 17, 2013 11:35pm Sep 17, 2013 11:35pm
just chipping in to say, great discussion, keep 'em comming...just don't get to emotional !
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