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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #127,801
  • Sep 16, 2013 10:50pm Sep 16, 2013 10:50pm
Quoting deltaskelta
{quote} I'm not mike, but my personal take is that you should defend yourself like you are doing by taking some of the trade off at the FTA, because its possible you will never see this profit again so take it while its hot. With the remaining part of the trade I would not always move the stop to BE. The trade might need some breathing room but it all depends on the quality of the setup and your bias towards the trade which will only come after seeing it happen many many times. I still struggle with this myself but I think the most important points...
Thanks delta, that was helpful. Hope others can chime is as well, it would be useful to know what, where and how everyone trading PA manages their MM so a noob like me know where I stand and how I can improve.
  • #127,802
  • Sep 17, 2013 1:49am Sep 17, 2013 1:49am
Quoting ferox
{quote} Thanks delta, that was helpful. Hope others can chime is as well, it would be useful to know what, where and how everyone trading PA manages their MM so a noob like me know where I stand and how I can improve.
Here's what I try to do:
1, I take half of position off at first FTA
2, I move my SL a little bit behind my entry. So not to BE but to a little loss(few pips, 3-15 depending on the pair volatility). I do this becase if price comes back it usually retests bar high/low so this allows me to stay in the trade if this happens
3, I do not take full bar losses(as Jim says), I calcualte my position based on potential full bar loss but once I'm in the trade I tight my SL by looking at hourly chart and looking for S/R there.

Hard part is to be picky. Not that you need to take only A++ trades with this approach, you can also take B trades but sometimes I don't even know if it's B trade and once you take C trade or worse it might break for 5 pips not reach even first FTA and turn back on you.(That's why I adjust my SL ASAP).

I'd love to hear what Mike and other more experienced trades have to say to our question.

Cheers,
Michal
  • #127,803
  • Sep 17, 2013 1:53am Sep 17, 2013 1:53am
Quoting ferox
Took both these pins but I think the USDCAD is a better one coming of 50fib and 150ma (though it's not technically a PB). Anyone else on these? {image}{image}
Hey Ferox,

Remember a pin bar isn't all that we're looking for. A valid trade setup constitutes other elements of the story too such as the location and space.

AUD/USD:

A small pin bar headed straight into a round number PPZ and multiple consolidation boxes. A dangerous combo.

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USD/CAD:

Headed back into a PPZ as well as the retest of the broken trend line.

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g.
I believe . . .
  • #127,804
  • Sep 17, 2013 3:09am Sep 17, 2013 3:09am
Quoting ghous
{quote} Hey Ferox, Remember a pin bar isn't all that we're looking for. A valid trade setup constitutes other elements of the story too such as the location and space. AUD/USD: A small pin bar headed straight into a round number PPZ and multiple consolidation boxes. A dangerous combo. USD/CAD: Headed back into a PPZ as well as the retest of the broken trend line. g.
Thanks, that was helpful. Will avoid these in the future. I'm still going through your old videos on youtube. Any chance you'll make an updated one, perhaps with new thoughts and insights especially after a few years of trading PA?
  • #127,805
  • Sep 17, 2013 3:23am Sep 17, 2013 3:23am
Quoting michal7
{quote} Here's what I try to do: 1, I take half of position off at first FTA 2, I move my SL a little bit behind my entry. So not to BE but to a little loss(few pips, 3-15 depending on the pair volatility). I do this becase if price comes back it usually retests bar high/low so this allows me to stay in the trade if this happens 3, I do not take full bar losses(as Jim says), I calcualte my position based on potential full bar loss but once I'm in the trade I tight my SL by looking at hourly chart and looking for S/R there. Hard part is to be picky....
So this is what I try to do now after viewing James's video here: Rants and Charts A Closer Look at What We Do (7-2-09)
However few years before I was not doing this (taking profits and move SL fast). I was letting setup to play out either for full loss or runner. And actually it was working OK(see attached screnshot of my trading log).
I had lot of changes in my life going on (changed jobs few times, moved to diffrent city, birth of child etc.) so I stopped trading, now settle again I've changed also trading style and i try to do what I described. However I might reconsider after I have some evidence.
This is an interesting discussion on this thread from 2007: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...987#post268987

It turns out that if you take only A+ or at least A setups you are probably better of if you let setup play out one way or the other. As pointed out by SeekingLight taking profits and moving to BE soon might be more of psychological thing than pragmatic. It does make you feel safer, you also have less loosers which is psyhoclogical boost maybe. But in the aftermath you might be worse off.

I guess this is something each trader has to test on himself. If you take only A+ setups you can leave it to play out(as A+ setups does works most of the time), if you however play also B or even C setups then it's also pragmatic to move your SL to BE really fast on these.
I'm just thinking loud as I'm too trying to find what works for me.
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  • #127,806
  • Sep 17, 2013 3:39am Sep 17, 2013 3:39am
Quoting michal7
{quote} So this is what I try to do now after viewing James's video here: Rants and Charts A Closer Look at What We Do (7-2-09) However few years before I was not doing this (taking profits and move SL fast). I was letting setup to play out either for full loss or runner. And actually it was working OK(see attached screnshot of my trading log). I had lot of changes in my life going on (changed jobs few times, moved to diffrent city, birth of child etc.) so I stopped trading, now...
I'm probably posting too much but these are some quotes from James's video:


Even a single bar can create support or resistance.

(14:00) My losses are virtually nothing. Because when a bar breaks for me and it comes back on me I kill it.

(1:24:40)Break-evens are wins folks, don't kid yourself. Put your break-evens in your win column, that's where they belong.

(1:37)You don't make it in this business by watching price reaches support and resistance area and leaving your stop loss at a loss. And hoping. You don't do it that way. It will not work. It will crush you mentally. Why will it crush you mentally? Because most of the time price is coming back.Most of the time you gonna watch your $500 profit, or your $50 profit or your $5000 profit turn into negative 500 and you gonna sit there and say "Why the heck did I not get out? When I was staring at all that profit." I'm saying to you, trade smart. Be picky with your setups. Don't let that happen. When you understand support and resistance, when it gets there I don't give a @#^$%& if it's 20 o 30 pips or it's 200 pips. Get your stinking stop to break even!


I've also posted them few years ago: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...83#post3996883


This is really hard, let them play out ot go to BE fast at FTA. It seem's it's taking me years to decide.
  • #127,807
  • Edited 7:54am Sep 17, 2013 6:18am | Edited 7:54am
Not sure if this is the place to post Jarroo style trades? I just got in this close below strong level with confluence and retrace, such a strong level and lots of space below.
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  • #127,808
  • Sep 17, 2013 8:48am Sep 17, 2013 8:48am
Taking partial profits is almost always a bad idea compared to a strategy in which you take only full profits.
If you're a winning trader it may be hard to notice because you still make money even if you take partial profits (but you're not maximizing the profits).

I've made some EV calculations using different strategies with different assumptions about the % won, the % lost, the RR, the distance between FTA and STA and the only case in which taking partial profits is better is if FTA is near STA (it's better than if we take full profit at STA, but taking full profit at FTA is still better and has higher EV).
I think if you use limit orders instead of stop orders moving to BE it's a good idea but if you use stop orders it's better to move the stop loss to a small lose instead of break even because the chances are high that your BE stop loss will be reached.
  • #127,809
  • Sep 17, 2013 8:50am Sep 17, 2013 8:50am
Quoting ferox
I have been manually backtesting for 2 days now and noticed that on most PA trades, quickly moving stops to BE upon contact of FTA and taking partial profits nets me a little profit here and there but on poor trades, getting stopped out completely wipes away these little profits. My observation is that: 1. Playing conservative on break of pins more often than not price retraces back to this level, stopping out the trade (after moving to BE, as J16 advocates) keeping me out of longer runs. 2. Thus, taking full or 80% profits at FTA increases my equity...
Hey Ferox

The main way I look at trade mgmt starts with the fact that NO two trades are equal. I treat each and every situation independently because each situation is unique it its own way. Now certain things I simply don't do like taking partial profits. Or every time price hits a FTA go to b/e etc. Instead I evaluate the situation in terms of thinking is it a longer term trade that deserves more room to run. Or is the market conducive to a quicker take profit or quicker to breakeven.


There is not one right way though so what I always recommend that I found helpful is tracking multiple entry and exit techniques. After 6+ months of data you have some concrete stuff to go by. I often see that what a lot of people want to be in terms of traders verse what they are good at are two different things. Example I would love to be a trader that has a tight stop loss and catches big runners. Reality this doesn't work well for me for the majority of my trades if I tried. What I am good at is taking high probability entries and cutting my risk. This keeps me in the game when I run bad, and when I run good I get a nice string of winners and profit.

Hope this helps a bit
Mike
  • #127,810
  • Sep 17, 2013 8:52am Sep 17, 2013 8:52am
Quoting michal7
This is really hard, let them play out ot go to BE fast at FTA. It seem's it's taking me years to decide.
As mentioned I have been practising (backtesting) using forex tester 2, here are my returns on each year of trading EURUSD daily:
2001 (5%)
2002 (-2.5%)

After reading your post and links to SeekingLight's and Mike's old posts, trading with the long term trend, not moving my stops to BE asap and letting the trade run:
2003 (12.3%)

  • #127,811
  • Sep 17, 2013 9:10am Sep 17, 2013 9:10am
Price Action:

This past spring I signed up to a Forex Training Site that teaches trading only A+ set ups off the daily & weekly TF (I won't mention site here out of respect for J16Group obv).

Anyway, this opened my eyes to how simple #1 trading can be.

I back tested this past years set ups, including how would I manage the trade on Daily & Weekly and found that I only came up with 14 trades so far this year, trading pin-bar and BEEB and BUEB.

This still yielded at 43% profit (no compounding) 3% risk per trade.

I am just curious, although I am not complaining about the return, is this really normal to be out of the market so much and only have 14-20 trades a year?

I know with mechanical systems ppl are boasting about epic returns etc, is this a standard Return % number for a winning PA trader?

Thanks so much,

(PS I am going to join J16)
  • #127,812
  • Sep 17, 2013 9:52am Sep 17, 2013 9:52am
Got into this USDCAD touch trade off strong weekly level, stop now at BE. I had alarm set and it went through daily level then stopped at weekly to the pip. Hopefully hourly closes as a swing failure.
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  • #127,813
  • Sep 17, 2013 12:19pm Sep 17, 2013 12:19pm
Chart im currently watching. 1hr pattern is starting to get a little to big for my liking but the 4hr is still a little to small. Will wait and see. Looking for a break to the downside, very nice rising trendline there

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Take care
Dan
  • #127,814
  • Sep 17, 2013 12:19pm Sep 17, 2013 12:19pm
Quoting Bullet
Got into this USDCAD touch trade off strong weekly level, stop now at BE. I had alarm set and it went through daily level then stopped at weekly to the pip. Hopefully hourly closes as a swing failure. {image} {image}
Set my partial take profit line to first target, which triggered. Other half is at break even so will let it play out.
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  • #127,815
  • Sep 17, 2013 1:11pm Sep 17, 2013 1:11pm
Quoting ferox
{quote} Thanks, that was helpful. Will avoid these in the future. I'm still going through your old videos on youtube. Any chance you'll make an updated one, perhaps with new thoughts and insights especially after a few years of trading PA?
I am already doing that (You tube channel: GFX trading) but I chose to not talk about it much here as I really don't want to lose the real essence of this thread or whatever is left of it.

g.
I believe . . .
  • #127,816
  • Sep 17, 2013 2:49pm Sep 17, 2013 2:49pm
Quoting deltaskelta
{quote} OJ did exactly what I wanted and I am already out of this trade because it is approaching the lower TL and trouble area. I got out a little early, but im still happy with it. sold at 138.25 bought at 136.4 {image}


very nice! Good confluence, never traded that market myself


Mike
  • #127,817
  • Sep 17, 2013 2:52pm Sep 17, 2013 2:52pm
Hey Mike/Guys,

Any thoughts on this? Still trying to incorporate breakouts in my trading - would a sell order below the low of this breakout bar be a sensible trade?

Thanks
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  • #127,818
  • Sep 17, 2013 5:14pm Sep 17, 2013 5:14pm
Quoting Andyvix833
Price Action: This past spring I signed up to a Forex Training Site that teaches trading only A+ set ups off the daily & weekly TF (I won't mention site here out of respect for J16Group obv). Anyway, this opened my eyes to how simple #1 trading can be. I back tested this past years set ups, including how would I manage the trade on Daily & Weekly and found that I only came up with 14 trades so far this year, trading pin-bar and BEEB and BUEB. This still yielded at 43% profit (no compounding) 3% risk per trade. I am just curious, although I am not...
Hey Andy

It's very individualized. I think the point is having 14-20 trades a year and producing such a phenomenal return that most people would literally jump through hoops of fire is the great thing to understand. more trades doesn't mean more money necessarily. And most traders are completely over trading. Period. I don't think that means you can only take 2-3 trades a month, but it does mean you CAN take only 2-3 trades a month and in my view that alone would help most people learn how to trade successfully.

Hope that helps
mike
  • #127,819
  • Sep 17, 2013 6:31pm Sep 17, 2013 6:31pm
Quoting mbqb11
{quote} Hey Andy It's very individualized. I think the point is having 14-20 trades a year and producing such a phenomenal return that most people would literally jump through hoops of fire is the great thing to understand. more trades doesn't mean more money necessarily. And most traders are completely over trading. Period. I don't think that means you can only take 2-3 trades a month, but it does mean you CAN take only 2-3 trades a month and in my view that alone would help most people learn how to trade successfully. Hope that helps mike
Mike,

Thanks for your reply.

I am okay with "only" having 14-20 trades a year especially if they produce results like that, I think it speaks volumes if you could trade a large account like that.

It was a cool back test in the fact that I did not skip ahead, I did each pair on the daily TF starting January 2013 until this month, then went back did January on the Weekly TF, candle by candle, plotting my trades before I skipped ahead.

One cool thing I did note about my trade management (I am no expert) but I didn't split my order in to TP1, Tp2 etc, I would just find a FTA that made sense, usually it was 80-100 pips away minimum from these A+ PA setups to begin with and would adjust my lot size accordingly, so although not an actual Guinness World Record in Pips, it was very steady and stress free in increasing my account by a very respectable percentage using very realistic R:R.
  • #127,820
  • Sep 17, 2013 6:36pm Sep 17, 2013 6:36pm
Quoting Andyvix833
{quote} Mike, Thanks for your reply. I am okay with "only" having 14-20 trades a year especially if they produce results like that, I think it speaks volumes if you could trade a large account like that. It was a cool back test in the fact that I did not skip ahead, I did each pair on the daily TF starting January 2013 until this month, then went back did January on the Weekly TF, candle by candle, plotting my trades before I skipped ahead. One cool thing I did note about my trade management (I am no expert) but I didn't split my order in to TP1,...
that's great andy! Great you are testing and proving things to yourself, that's crucial


I also never split my positions

Take care
Mike
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