Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno | Page 126 | Forex Factory

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Supply and demand in a nutshell by Alfonso Moreno

  • #2,501
  • Sep 16, 2013 1:28am Sep 16, 2013 1:28am
Quoting Reacto
Hi Ivan, your laughing about it, but it's sadly true The picture in D1 does not give me much reason to go long here in silver {image}
Hi Robert!

I just commented on that same fact about the silver on my previous post, you were writting at the same time I was, but I pressed the SUBMIT button faster than you I am Luck Luke

Longs are not allowed on SILVER now, this is key to understanding the methodology and how the SD higher timeframes play out! We just need to be patient, we can't go long and change direction because we see a couple of H1 supply zones taken out. It's all explained on Post #1. We need price to be hit the opposing SD zone, why? Because 99% of the time price just does that. Isn't that a good reason?

Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #2,502
  • Sep 16, 2013 1:29am Sep 16, 2013 1:29am
Quoting FxJD
Hi to all, I'm new to this thread, already reading the posts here. So many great material that i need to digest. I myself was already burned using a lot of indicators and the SD methodology is the only strategy that makes sense. I like to set and forget it also, since i am working working full time. Thanks to Alfonso for all of his contributions in the trading community. Hi Namesake, Could you share your template that you're using to us. Your template is good to look at. Thanks a lot.
Attached File(s)
File Type: tpl sd template (nt version).tpl   4 KB | 764 downloads
Keep your blades sharp!
  • #2,503
  • Sep 16, 2013 1:43am Sep 16, 2013 1:43am
Quoting panoramia
{quote} Hey there Ivan! That SILVER long is not allowed as per the rules, you can't change direction just the long side just because there is a new H1 demand area formed and 2 small H1 supply areas have been taken out. We're not yet at higher timeframe demand areas, so longs are not allowed. If we had fell short of hitting HTF demand, yes of course we'd be allowed, but it's not the far! Lots of room to reach it, as you well said. The D1 CP supply (continuation pattern from now on, instead of speedbump) has not yet been reached, no other shorts are...
Hi guys thanks for chipping in, I'm glad this Silver situation occurred because it is a fantastic lesson, definitely gonna capture this chart and make notes on it, regardless of whether price will bounce up or not. So lesson learned - Even if there are engulfs up, we're not allowed to go long unless we are at HTF demand or just fell short of it.

Now Alfonso I would like to ask another question which I believe Robert might also be wondering. Even though Silver is far from HTF demand, Gold is already at weekly demand which did take out previous supply. As such are we allowed to go long on Gold H1 demand (which also took out some H1 supply)? I know it is abit weird to ask this because Gold and Silver are highly correlated so by right they should have the same bias.
  • #2,504
  • Sep 16, 2013 1:45am Sep 16, 2013 1:45am
We talked about this EURJPY H4 short trade the other day... I woke up and saw I am short on EURJPY.
Ivan (Myst) mentioned it on this post where he was expecting to short the EJ... http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...50#post6964650

Let's see if this trade wants to work! It fits the rules, so I am riding it!
Alfonso
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 127 KB
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #2,505
  • Sep 16, 2013 1:47am Sep 16, 2013 1:47am
Quoting panoramia
{quote} Hi Robert! I just commented on that same fact about the silver on my previous post, you were writting at the same time I was, but I pressed the SUBMIT button faster than you I am Luck Luke Longs are not allowed on SILVER now, this is key to understanding the methodology and how the SD higher timeframes play out! We just need to be patient, we can't go long and change direction because we see a couple of H1 supply zones taken out. It's all explained on Post #1. We need price to be hit the opposing SD zone, why? Because 99% of the...
Hi Alfonso,

You'll be quicker than me for some time, but I will be catching up
  • #2,506
  • Sep 16, 2013 1:49am Sep 16, 2013 1:49am
Quoting panoramia
We talked about this EURJPY H4 short trade the other day... I woke up and saw I am short on EURJPY. Ivan (Myst) mentioned it on this post where he was expecting to short the EJ... http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...50#post6964650 Let's see if this trade wants to work! It fits the rules, so I am riding it! Alfonso {image}
Unfortunately, I could not take this trade. Price is too close to Daily demand on my charts. Dam this decentralized forex market.
  • #2,507
  • Sep 16, 2013 2:09am Sep 16, 2013 2:09am
Alfonso,

What do we do when price overshoots a level on HTF? Do we continue to look for trades in the direction of the level that was overshot or do we reverse and wait for lower TF opposite areas of S/D to be broken ?
  • #2,508
  • Sep 16, 2013 2:12am Sep 16, 2013 2:12am
Quoting Axlz
Alfonso, What do we do when price overshoots a level on HTF? Do we continue to look for trades in the direction of the level that was overshot or do we reverse and wait for lower TF opposite areas of S/D to be broken ?
I believe the answer is obvious, you know that one Samir

Just watch the fakeouts! Watch the last week/month low/high and level on top of levels, it could be a bear or bull trap!
Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #2,509
  • Sep 16, 2013 2:13am Sep 16, 2013 2:13am
Quoting Axlz
Alfonso, What do we do when price overshoots a level on HTF? Do we continue to look for trades in the direction of the level that was overshot or do we reverse and wait for lower TF opposite areas of S/D to be broken ?
Hi Samir, good morning or afternoon in your case,

Look at the rules in post 1 Samir, you'll have to learn them by hard
  • #2,510
  • Sep 16, 2013 2:16am Sep 16, 2013 2:16am
Quoting panoramia
We talked about this EURJPY H4 short trade the other day... I woke up and saw I am short on EURJPY. Ivan (Myst) mentioned it on this post where he was expecting to short the EJ... http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...50#post6964650 Let's see if this trade wants to work! It fits the rules, so I am riding it! Alfonso {image}
Hi Alfonso, I saw that but didn't take it because I don't know what to make out of those ridiculous gaps (Maybe you could include some rules on this )! I checked across the yen pairs and saw AUDJPY H4 supply broken, CHFJPY H4 supply broken, and figured I'll pass on EURJPY short (When in doubt stay out). Right now I am still planning the CADJPY H4 short, and probably USDJPY H4 short too.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPY.png Size: 28 KB


Btw I had the impression you usually cancel all orders prior to Fri's close, how then were you triggered in on EURJPY? I'm asking because if you had programmed an EA to place orders upon market open if all conditions are still met, do you have a rule to cater for gaps? It seems like gaps can sometimes be powerful enough to blow away valid setups, as seen on GBPAUD H4.
  • #2,511
  • Sep 16, 2013 2:23am Sep 16, 2013 2:23am
Trade for JPY.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Yen.PNG Size: 29 KB
Price Is The Best Indicator Itself.
  • #2,512
  • Sep 16, 2013 2:24am Sep 16, 2013 2:24am
Quoting panoramia
We talked about this EURJPY H4 short trade the other day... I woke up and saw I am short on EURJPY. Ivan (Myst) mentioned it on this post where he was expecting to short the EJ... http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...50#post6964650 Let's see if this trade wants to work! It fits the rules, so I am riding it! Alfonso {image}

Hi Alfonso, this EURJPY trade is a tipical example of one of my questions yesterday, cause the weekly supply zone is considered to be used up after 4 hits

In this case, do you consider the H4 to be in a clear new trend?

You apparently you had pending orders on your VPS for this trade, do you have them active on Sunday evening / night
  • #2,513
  • Sep 16, 2013 2:28am Sep 16, 2013 2:28am
i taken CADCHF short on speedbump h1. Closer to D1 supply than D1 demand, closer to weekly supply too, so let's see!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: metatrader - pepperstone.png Size: 160 KB
  • #2,514
  • Sep 16, 2013 2:30am Sep 16, 2013 2:30am
Quoting Reacto
{quote} Hi Alfonso, this EURJPY trade is a tipical example of one of my questions yesterday, cause the weekly supply zone is considered to be used up after 4 hits In this case, do you consider the H4 to be in a clear new trend? You apparently you had pending orders on your VPS for this trade, do you have them active on Sunday evening / night
Hi Robert,

My rule is not to trade on Sunday nights because of the opening gaps. Look at what happened to the $ pairs. I was short on USDCHF on Friday but closed it (posted my entry here) because I normally do that on Friday's if my trade is not up for quite a bunch of pips, but USDCHF was like 35-ish pips, so I closed it.

I had a few H4 orders planned on my VPS, but paused most of them because of the Sunday gap possibility, rules you know. But I looked at the Monday news at FF, and I saw it was Japanese Bank Holidy, so I "broke" Sunday open rule on EURJPY and GBPJPY because of that simple reason. I got triggered on the EJ because of that. The GBPJPY trade was discussed on last webinar (monthly supply, etc), I had my VPS looking for that one. Those were the 2 pairs I wanted to have me VPS look at, and for those specific reasons.

Quoting Myst1z
{quote} Btw I had the impression you usually cancel all orders prior to Fri's close, how then were you triggered in on EURJPY? I'm asking because if you had programmed an EA to place orders upon market open if all conditions are still met, do you have a rule to cater for gaps? It seems like gaps can sometimes be powerful enough to blow away valid setups, as seen on GBPAUD H4.
Ivan, I don't have rules for the gaps yet, the only one is "don't trade the Sunday open". Gaps are powerful if we know how to distinguish the pro versus the novices ones. I will be adding some rules to the gaps, but you know... so many things step by step!

Alfonso
Set and Forget supply and demand trading community
  • #2,515
  • Sep 16, 2013 2:33am Sep 16, 2013 2:33am
Quoting panoramia
{quote} Hi Robert, My rule is not to trade on Sunday nights because of the opening gaps. Look at what happened to the $ pairs. I was short on USDCHF on Friday but closed it (posted my entry here) because I normally do that on Friday's if my trade is not up for quite a bunch of pips, but USDCHF was like 35-ish pips, so I closed it. I had a few H4 orders planned on my VPS, but paused most of them because of the Sunday gap possibility, rules you know. But I looked at the Monday news at FF, and I saw it was Japanese Bank Holidy, so I "broke" Sunday...
Ic thanks for the clarification!
  • #2,516
  • Sep 16, 2013 2:40am Sep 16, 2013 2:40am
Hi there

Took short on gbp jpy.
Price hits monthly, weekly and daily supply, creates new, fresh supply on h1.
Let's see if it's not too aggresive.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpjpymonthly.png Size: 40 KB
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Click to Enlarge Name: gbpjpydaily.png Size: 51 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpjpyh1.png Size: 46 KB
  • #2,517
  • Sep 16, 2013 2:42am Sep 16, 2013 2:42am
Quoting bobyv87
i taken CADCHF short on speedbump h1. Closer to D1 supply than D1 demand, closer to weekly supply too, so let's see! {image}

I had a loss on CadChf. Maybe this little speedbumb was not good for sell
  • #2,518
  • Sep 16, 2013 2:43am Sep 16, 2013 2:43am
Quoting bobyv87
{quote} I had a loss on CadChf. Maybe this little speedbumb was not good for sell
Hi Boby,

Perhaps a picture may help us to see if anything was done wrong?
  • #2,519
  • Sep 16, 2013 2:44am Sep 16, 2013 2:44am
Quoting panoramia
{quote} Hi Robert, My rule is not to trade on Sunday nights because of the opening gaps. Look at what happened to the $ pairs. I was short on USDCHF on Friday but closed it (posted my entry here) because I normally do that on Friday's if my trade is not up for quite a bunch of pips, but USDCHF was like 35-ish pips, so I closed it. I had a few H4 orders planned on my VPS, but paused most of them because of the Sunday gap possibility, rules you know. But I looked at the Monday news at FF, and I saw it was Japanese Bank Holidy, so I "broke" Sunday...
Thanks for the explanation Alfonso
  • #2,520
  • Sep 16, 2013 2:46am Sep 16, 2013 2:46am
Quoting Myst1z
{quote}Right now I am still planning the CADJPY H4 short, and probably USDJPY H4 short too.
By the way Ivan, take a look at USDJPY D1 chart, D1 demand respecting the D1 ascending trendline.

The H4 supply looks really nice, I'm concerned about that D1 demand zone, D1 demand it has not been hit yet (maybe on some brokers yes, but I doubt it).


I don't see your D1 zones on your USDJPY H4 chart, so I guess you did not draw that D1 demand and ascending TL. I will not fight against such a D1 uptrend with compressed supply at the top. That H4 short could be a nice short if D1 demand is not hit, if hit, the H4 short will be automatically negated!

There is a nice H4 demand set & forget at 98.19 which I will be trying. I will also try to short the H4 supply at 99.64 if D1 demand is not hit.
That's my rationale behind the USDJPY scenario. Hope it "makes sense"

Alfonso
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