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AUD/USD

  • #65,241
  • Sep 13, 2013 3:07pm Sep 13, 2013 3:07pm
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} Gold will fall.... Tapering means the restriction or the reduction of money supply.... when supply falls, and demand stays unchange price rises... (in this case the value of the dollar rises, as theres less dollar in the market) then Gold being XAUUSD, USD strength will drive XAUUSD down. and rightfully so, as rising interest rates or tapering should be seen as signs that economy is in recovery, time for the fed to reload its bullets after using them all up on QE.... So theres less panic in the market.... and people wont be needing gold...

got it,but my fxcm dollar chart shows $ going down and gold is also doing the same thing. This bit is confusing like hell.
the cautious seldom err....C
  • #65,242
  • Sep 13, 2013 3:11pm Sep 13, 2013 3:11pm
the yellow metal rebounded from the important fib of 78.6 as shown on my gold chart previously. If not for the weekend I would have stay in the long trade instead of scalping. the rebound currently is worth $17
the cautious seldom err....C
  • #65,243
  • Sep 13, 2013 3:22pm Sep 13, 2013 3:22pm
someone told me the announcement will be made on the 18th but just today the data that came out was pretty bad. I doubt there will be tapering so soon. In any case, I just trade what I see but I will make myself aware that day and perhaps not have any trades outstanding .Don't want be caught by big boys as they prolly do the opposite of what we think
the cautious seldom err....C
  • #65,244
  • Sep 13, 2013 3:30pm Sep 13, 2013 3:30pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusdh1.png Size: 60 KB
spreads will be getting wider. better move sl further or get taken out by mm(market makers/manipulators)
the cautious seldom err....C
  • #65,245
  • Sep 13, 2013 4:56pm Sep 13, 2013 4:56pm
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} here we go {image}
Daily still looks long to me, and the H4 short and that is creating the pullback on the daily, but the daily is not short............

Thanks for showing your chart............
The More You Learn, The More You Earn.....
  • #65,246
  • Sep 13, 2013 6:00pm Sep 13, 2013 6:00pm
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} The question wasnt whether if theres gona be tapering.... but rather When? and How Much to taper is the question.... Let me explain why Tapering is gona happen sooner or later... The Fed after 2008 like all Central banks have only 2 tools to spur growth and for the post 2008 crisis to spur recovery.... the 2 tools are Monetary Policy... These are both Supply side policies the Central Bank can control... Demand side cannot be controlled... demand side is due to tastes, confidence etc etc... so on the supply side theres 2 tools Tool 1. Interest...

They might as well get the QE tapering started since most of the market is expecting it in Sept. Not doing so would just shock the market more.

Not to mention the effects of QE is waning maybe to a point where the negatives of QE is outweighting the benefits.

Add to that, there seems to be increasing talks that Larry Summer is going to be the man and from what I heard...this guy doesnt like QE at all.
  • #65,247
  • Sep 13, 2013 7:36pm Sep 13, 2013 7:36pm
Quoting Doboy408
{quote} They might as well get the QE tapering started since most of the market is expecting it in Sept. Not doing so would just shock the market more. Not to mention the effects of QE is waning maybe to a point where the negatives of QE is outweighting the benefits. Add to that, there seems to be increasing talks that Larry Summer is going to be the man and from what I heard...this guy doesnt like QE at all.
Agreed
The More You Learn, The More You Earn.....
  • #65,248
  • Sep 13, 2013 8:29pm Sep 13, 2013 8:29pm
Quoting forexalien
{quote} Daily still looks long to me, and the H4 short and that is creating the pullback on the daily, but the daily is not short............ Thanks for showing your chart............
No problem. I won't be L on AUD/USD until we break the resistance shown on my chart I posted

I'm trading off of supply/demand/price action only. No indicators; I'm not saying you're wrong, just that I disagree , on the bright side- we are both short right now so we can both win
  • #65,249
  • Sep 13, 2013 9:52pm Sep 13, 2013 9:52pm
Quoting Olu
{quote} But will there be any tapering? olu
I am paying close attention to CPI the day before FOMC for any type of hint.

Right now CPI is projected to decrease from 2.0% to 1.6%. If inflation DOES decrease as projected, how can the Fed possibly taper?

One of the key points in all of the FOMC statements is a mention of inflation and not many people seem to realize that part...
  • #65,250
  • Sep 13, 2013 9:57pm Sep 13, 2013 9:57pm
Quoting Doboy408
{quote} They might as well get the QE tapering started since most of the market is expecting it in Sept. Not doing so would just shock the market more. Not to mention the effects of QE is waning maybe to a point where the negatives of QE is outweighting the benefits. Add to that, there seems to be increasing talks that Larry Summer is going to be the man and from what I heard...this guy doesnt like QE at all.
Larry Summers was just a balloon floated today. The White House quickly shot down those claims.

Its all part of gauging reaction, and the markets did not like that idea.
  • #65,251
  • Sep 13, 2013 10:48pm Sep 13, 2013 10:48pm
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} here we go {image}
Agree with short. The daily is bearish.
Some people will surely go long and thats why we will be able to short....
  • #65,252
  • Sep 14, 2013 7:27am Sep 14, 2013 7:27am
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} No problem. I won't be L on AUD/USD until we break the resistance shown on my chart I posted I'm trading off of supply/demand/price action only. No indicators; I'm not saying you're wrong, just that I disagree , on the bright side- we are both short right now so we can both win
I am here only to challenge and make you think, not to fight with people.

This is where people get into trouble when calling out longs and shorts, what is the size of the TF they are looking at > Nobody will never know without a marked chart showing us so.....

The daily AUD

In the chart below, is it short because of the over all trend of 5 months ?
Is it long because of the last 2 weeks in the green channel?
Is it short because we have one red bar down ?

What is everyone's idea here ?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: sls.JPG Size: 352 KB
The More You Learn, The More You Earn.....
  • #65,253
  • Sep 14, 2013 7:32am Sep 14, 2013 7:32am
What if price action did this and continued Long?

Are you calling the Daily short because of the retracement?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 9_14_13 aud day marked.JPG Size: 303 KB
The More You Learn, The More You Earn.....
  • #65,254
  • Sep 14, 2013 7:42am Sep 14, 2013 7:42am
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} No problem. I won't be L on AUD/USD until we break the resistance shown on my chart I posted I'm trading off of supply/demand/price action only. No indicators; I'm not saying you're wrong, just that I disagree , on the bright side- we are both short right now so we can both win
I want everyone to be correct here and make some money, we are doing battle against the market , not each other.

Using my channel I don't see price going below .9150 area ......
The More You Learn, The More You Earn.....
  • #65,255
  • Sep 14, 2013 8:57am Sep 14, 2013 8:57am
I thought I would add my thoughts to this debate. Please dont let it become a debate about EW. If price rockets upwards then I am wrong. As we all know we have been wrong before and although we hope to be getting better and better we will be wrong in the future.

Olu
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ADFutures-daily-13092013.jpg Size: 90 KB
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #65,256
  • Sep 14, 2013 9:01am Sep 14, 2013 9:01am
Quoting fxtyrant
i hope this answers your question....
It does FxTyrant. Thanks for the discussion

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #65,257
  • Sep 14, 2013 10:20am Sep 14, 2013 10:20am
Quoting Olu
I thought I would add my thoughts to this debate. Please dont let it become a debate about EW. If price rockets upwards then I am wrong. As we all know we have been wrong before and although we hope to be getting better and better we will be wrong in the future. Olu {image}

I know nothing about ew but I agree it's going lower, lower and even lower
the cautious seldom err....C
  • #65,258
  • Sep 14, 2013 11:32am Sep 14, 2013 11:32am
Can someone here please explain what the "gap" is? Evidently it is not what I thought it was. I have read members here talk about trading the "gap". I had assumed it was the difference in ask and sell prices or the same as the "spread". Thanks
  • #65,259
  • Sep 14, 2013 11:41am Sep 14, 2013 11:41am
Quoting Olu
I thought I would add my thoughts to this debate. Please dont let it become a debate about EW. If price rockets upwards then I am wrong. As we all know we have been wrong before and although we hope to be getting better and better we will be wrong in the future. Olu {image}
Thank You for your thoughts............and joining in on the discussion......

Your idea is valid, but limited to how far it will drop............IMO

WEEKLY CHART HERE

We have made a nice "W" bottom turning long.......on the Daily as you have shown..

ADX indicators are losing power for the short side for now.....

I have no doubt this won't go and test lower again, how far , I am not sure. retrace only ? retest the bottom ?

The last thing to point out is the RSIOMA and the Delayed Stochastic on the bottom of my chart.

They are slowly turning up, they can still stall and drop some more, but normally they don't that often or very far.

We can only watch this play out and make some pips in the Daily swings and learn to become more like swing traders and hold our trades longer...............

Thanks Alien
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 9_14_2013.JPG Size: 263 KB
The More You Learn, The More You Earn.....
  • #65,260
  • Sep 14, 2013 11:43am Sep 14, 2013 11:43am
Quoting pips29
{quote} I know nothing about ew but I agree it's going lower, lower and even lower
Are you talking Monday ? Next week ? next month? next year?

to just say lower , lower , lower here does nothing to help us, IMO..............
The More You Learn, The More You Earn.....
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