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  • #241
  • Edited 9:16am Sep 5, 2013 9:00am | Edited 9:16am
The Currency Average Daily Range (ADR) Power Proof, just watch the EU how he behaves around the ADR, notice the rejection around these levels .31500, round number which is also the support and resistance levels for the day.

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI beat expectation, the US Economy is picking up and that's another reason for the EU to continue his down trend.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusdh1_adr power.png Size: 77 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusddaily_raw.png Size: 70 KB
Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
  • #242
  • Sep 5, 2013 9:29am Sep 5, 2013 9:29am
Quoting bassramy
{quote} T., let me first give you my opinion about all the tools that we use, none of these tools are for sure 100%, hell 50% accuracy is Extraordinary, so don't go reliying on these tools to give u the Edge, the only edge in the markets is the PA and ur ability to read it and understand it well, but there is certain Candlesticks patterns that prooved very helpful and profitable since the first days of the Financial markets and the Pinbars on support and resistance is one of them and the Higher the TF's the more reliable they are....



All indicators are lagging in nature and after all the heartburns, I'm not relaying 100% on any of them. But, tools do help you to recognize certain setups, if you stick to same tools long enough and above all, if you work hard enough with them. Back testing is ok, but 90% of the trader's edge is FORWARD testing. And even here I have to disagree with people promoting demo trading. When real money is involved, mind starts to work totally different. So my advice to traders which want to do forward testing (after mastering setup or multiple setups) – find a broker with 0.01 lot positions, deposit 100$ and trade. If you can’t afford to lose 100$ once or a few times, well, then fx is probably not for you. But nobody should start with decent size account. Just give me the money instead, the effect will be the same. Not really a joke…

For me the goal was/is, to get to a system which has greater than 1:1 win:loss ratio and at least about 70% win rate. You can look at this from a different perspective. If your setup is at least 2:1 on average, you win rate can be about 50% or even less and you’ll do fine. But again – a trader needs to identify and master the setup first.

Bass, I have to say a few people are prepared to share their strategy in detail, so thank you for this.


Here is one very simple and highly effective setup for EURUSD short today. A trader can zero in for entry on shorter TF after such a setup of entry at:
- touch of TL, tigght SL
- after break of PA consolidation zone, which normally matches break of yellow line on TDI indicator (green crossing yellow), if somebody prefers indicators
http://charts.mql5.com/2/445/teurusd...rkets-as-3.png

BR
  • #243
  • Sep 5, 2013 10:20am Sep 5, 2013 10:20am
What are the settings that you use for FastTMAline?
  • #244
  • Edited 8:57am Sep 6, 2013 4:09am | Edited 8:57am
Got an excellent UCAD ETMATE Setup with a very good R:R = 1:5.09 if it follow through to the Lower D1 Band or support but beware of volatility today with the NFP around the corner.

And the update after the NFP Release.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: UCAD RR.png Size: 27 KB
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Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
  • #245
  • Sep 6, 2013 8:52am Sep 6, 2013 8:52am
Are u playing this game right ?, EG is exactly on support trying to break it lower but wait GU is on Resistance also and getting weaker ( Not after the NFP Anyway ) so maybe its an opportunity to go long EG, anyway i'm just contemplating and thinking out-loud, any trade shouldn't be taking today ( End of the Week ) and not without confirmation ( Remember Jessy Livermore ) but i don't know i like to pick bottoms and tops of course with the right analysis.

What do you think, in - out - in - out , i'm confused, Reason or emotions, by the way the MRM is 1:12 - 15 R:R.

Cheers,
B.R.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
  • #246
  • Sep 6, 2013 1:37pm Sep 6, 2013 1:37pm
Quoting bassramy
Got an excellent UCAD ETMATE Setup with a very good R:R = 1:5.09 if it follow through to the Lower D1 Band or support but beware of volatility today with the NFP around the corner. And the update after the NFP Release. {image} {image} {image}
Please could you explain the setup?
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  • #247
  • Sep 7, 2013 3:24am Sep 7, 2013 3:24am
Quoting alexx90
{quote} Please could you explain the setup? {image}

Please refer to my earlier posts on this thread and on the ETMA thread to get an idea of my ETMATE system and rules.

Best,
B.R.
Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
  • #248
  • Sep 9, 2013 9:11am Sep 9, 2013 9:11am
Covering my shorts and took profits on the UCAD after the touch and the Bounce from the Long term Ascending trendline ( Or you can call it Channel ) and the RSI Divergence that being printed today, staying in cash until the picture clears a little bit.

Best,
B.R.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
  • #249
  • Sep 9, 2013 9:30am Sep 9, 2013 9:30am
GU trying to break the important resistance of 57160, ADR being hit, WR% is overbought, is this a real break or a double top, let's see if its follow through or not.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusdh1_etmate.png Size: 119 KB
Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
  • #250
  • Sep 9, 2013 10:01am Sep 9, 2013 10:01am
EU keep flying high breaking his latest Lower high which being tested twice despite Bad news coming out from Germany, is this an outlier ?.
Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
  • #251
  • Sep 11, 2013 2:11pm Sep 11, 2013 2:11pm
Ramy, what is your take on the Pin bar forming on GCHF and EG on D1 in relation to resistance and support respectively as you have always said?
************************* Knowledge is an endless research
  • #252
  • Sep 12, 2013 3:54am Sep 12, 2013 3:54am
Quoting bassramy
Are u playing this game right ?, EG is exactly on support trying to break it lower but wait GU is on Resistance also and getting weaker ( Not after the NFP Anyway ) so maybe its an opportunity to go long EG, anyway i'm just contemplating and thinking out-loud, any trade shouldn't be taking today ( End of the Week ) and not without confirmation ( Remember Jessy Livermore ) but i don't know i like to pick bottoms and tops of course with the right analysis. What do you think, in - out - in - out , i'm confused, Reason or emotions, by the way the MRM...
@T., this is an update of the above with pictures, like i said in my earlier post i was very interested to see the behavior of the EG on that Important support, the Pinbar and the Double bottom in process convinced me that the Buyer are overwhelming sellers on this level and thus the Rejection of the Break and the formation of the Pinbar after the Fakey ( A break of support and the Rejection of this break with a close above this support ), important to note that GU Broke his Resistance yesterday with a firm candle if the EU fail to follow him upward we can see a failed pinbar and the continuation of the Down trend, my long entry was 0.5 pip over support.

I noted the GCHF Fakey pinbar on resistance and i took the Trade as soon as the PA retraced to retest resistance, my rules didn't line up for a ETMATE trade yet but the Price action Candle pattern was very obvious to let this chance pass by, i will be scaling in short when all my ETMATE Rules align and when the low of the pinbar will be broken and the confirmation of the reversal will be with the break of the 46170 support level, note that there is another strong support level on the 4590'sh and that could be a hurdle for a break down.

Best,
B.R.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: gbpchfdaily_raw.png Size: 104 KB
Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
  • #253
  • Sep 12, 2013 9:45am Sep 12, 2013 9:45am
Quoting bassramy
{quote} @T., this is an update of the above with pictures, like i said in my earlier post i was very interested to see the behavior of the EG on that Important support, the Pinbar and the Double bottom in process convinced me that the Buyer are overwhelming sellers on this level and thus the Rejection of the Break and the formation of the Pinbar after the Fakey ( A break of support and the Rejection of this break with a close above this support ), important to note that GU Broke his Resistance yesterday with a firm candle if the EU fail to follow...
Thank you pal. I am really learning fast from you.
************************* Knowledge is an endless research
  • #254
  • Sep 12, 2013 12:09pm Sep 12, 2013 12:09pm
Quoting Tess1
{quote} Thank you pal. I am really learning fast from you.
You're welcome buddy, just to add to the list a triple bullish divergence is noticed also on the EG Daily TF ( Macd,stoch and RSi ) but is it gonna hold true, that is only left for the PA and the market to decide, notice the reversal on the stoch if its shallow ( stoch climbing to the overbought area in a less pips than the last downhill than we can only assume that this reversal is short lived and the downtrend will resume in breaking the now 4 times tested range support and the next support is way below which make it an interesting short trade, I already positioned myself to profit from such a scenario if it occurs .

Just a quick note on the GU, I like to say that the GU bulls are capped by a very strong ceiling or Resistance of 58300 of 12 Nov 2012 I expect this ceiling to hold strong, notice today the GU which couldn't even budge up this level, but like always, who knows.

Best,
B.R.
Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
  • #255
  • Sep 13, 2013 5:07am Sep 13, 2013 5:07am
Hi.


Interesting, that you appear to be so confident in EG trade. I mean, you are ETMA trader. D1 slope is very steeply oriented down. Which should alone be a reason not to even consider this trade without considerable pullback first and retest of broken TL. ATM, any long is short entry based on what is ETMA or am I missing something??


BR
  • #256
  • Edited 11:41am Sep 13, 2013 9:51am | Edited 11:41am
Quoting tp0440
Hi. Interesting, that you appear to be so confident in EG trade. I mean, you are ETMA trader. D1 slope is very steeply oriented down. Which should alone be a reason not to even consider this trade without considerable pullback first and retest of broken TL. ATM, any long is short entry based on what is ETMA or am I missing something?? BR

T., Buddy i'm a 30% swing trader and ETMATE happens to be a swing strategy that suits my personality, but i like to remind u that 70% of my portfolio is another strategies, one of them is the Pinabr on support and resistance that unfortunately didn't worked out this time cse support was broken after the US Retail Sales m/m and the Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment came out in the red.

If you read my posts, u will see that i was exited about the pinbar but in the same time i didn't rules out a support break and i was well positioned to profit from that also on other strategies, by the way the Bands were our allies also in this trade cse this pinbar was also on the Lower D1 Bands which added to our confluence of probabilities, i went out with minimum damage and that my friend happens also in the markets when u try to pick top and bottoms even with a high probability setup like the pinbar, we accept it and move on to another trade.

Best,
B.R.
Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
  • #257
  • Sep 14, 2013 5:08am Sep 14, 2013 5:08am
Hi.


I get all that and I've read about your opinion it might break through. I was a bit surprised only to see you so excited about this long and about the fact that you entered into the trade without the stuff which I believe (just my observation, nothing else) you normally do:
- break of TL. First one was broken, but normally straight TL is no good. It must incorporate a PB. Than when such a TL is broken, we have much better chances. This was not the case here.
- what would normally be following is a strong candle up or a PB to TL. Neither occurred.
- you are watching also for RSI to be above 50 at least on faster TFs. Like h1 or even lover.
- last but not least, PA didn't pick up on h1 or even h4 for a lot of candles. When this happens you'll see that PA will at least make another dip before reversing if not continuing overall in previous trend

Pinbar or engulfing on it's own is great stuff. But it's worth considering confirmation on lower TFs. Just my 5 cents on the topic. Not trying to be smart, just speaking from experience. Whenever I tested setups and PA and didn't wait for confirmation, pinbar, engulfing and other strong PA reversal/PB indicators worked. When I entered without confirmation for real, it almost never worked. So, what I do is go to lower TF and check for PA there. H1 (yet alone min15) showed clearly already on Thursday end-of-day or at least Friday Asia session, this pinbar will likely fail.

On the other hand, I know we also had big AB=CD end of pattern, harmonic target reached, and we are at multiple, multiple demand level (or support if you will). So I get the reasons for potential entry based on different strategies and tools, but in my opinion it was never confirmed.
Note: a PB of 100-150 pips or so wouldn't surprise me either. Friday is never a big reference for overall PA anyway.


BR
  • #258
  • Sep 14, 2013 8:50am Sep 14, 2013 8:50am
hi bassramy, i'm interest with your picture on this LINK.

Can you post what indicator that you used? cause i think it's very simple and good.

this is PICTURE that i meant. For your attention and help i'm very thanksful
  • #259
  • Sep 16, 2013 2:37am Sep 16, 2013 2:37am
Quoting tp0440
Hi. I get all that and I've read about your opinion it might break through. I was a bit surprised only to see you so excited about this long and about the fact that you entered into the trade without the stuff which I believe (just my observation, nothing else) you normally do: - break of TL. First one was broken, but normally straight TL is no good. It must incorporate a PB. Than when such a TL is broken, we have much better chances. This was not the case here. - what would normally be following is a strong candle up or a PB to TL. Neither occurred....

T., thank you very much for ur reply, there is a lot of valid info in your post but for me its a lot simpler than that when it comes to PB, Engulfing or Piercing line, specially if its a big candle on a major support and resistance, i enter after seeing these patterns on a retrace of between 20% - 50%, my SL would be where I'm wrong which means under or over the Pattern Candle and my exit would be an R:R of 1:2 Ratio that's it no more and no less.

The probabilities on these patterns have proves themselves overtime but still nothing is guaranteed 100% and that's why we take good care of not hurting our accounts much by optimizing our position sizing if we encounter such failures.

Kindly note that this is not a ETMATE strategy, this a PA strategy based on bar or candlesticks patterns.

Best,
B.R.
Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
  • #260
  • Sep 16, 2013 2:41am Sep 16, 2013 2:41am
Quoting wanaxau
hi bassramy, i'm interest with your picture on this LINK. Can you post what indicator that you used? cause i think it's very simple and good. this is PICTURE that i meant. For your attention and help i'm very thanksful

This is the super trend Indicator on MT5, Google it.
Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
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