AUD/USD

aud refuses to fall also....

here we go

give her some time

Struggling this week, but another 10% plus increase on the account this week..............

Heavy shorting the pound for next week I am looking into.............

quite disappointed across all pairs except gbpusd which managed to create a higher hi but lacks volatility as cross pairs are in every direction.

PPI failed to push price out of range. UoM Consumer Sentiment as well only 5 minutes spikes both fake out.

Very boring range play for about 2 hours now, for scalpers to benefit.

I will wake up tomorrow to see what's all the closing.


Below 0.9320 i favor range play sell hi with stop at 0.9355. And sell every daily support.

New week might see a re-test of 0.9280-0.9322. upper range 0.9322-55.

As long price capped under 0.9340 of june's high. Favor looking for bear action via daily low.

i too am looking into shorting GBPUSD soon....

I'll save myself from the hassle GBP/AUD -> going either options or / short GBPAUD from 1,74-1,75

Yup- not much left to do until end of next week imo.

I actually had a fantastic week, caught about +30% , 10% which was negative, apparently scalping is not really my thing.

I would choose e/u. Have a look at what u/chf is doing on h4 since you like divergence play. G/u still looking bullish. Dyoa

Will it break out of box downwards?

great job but I have to tell you about the impulse trade above. It was calculated trade. I was actually waiting for the price to reach the 50ema and trade short. You see prices have been bouncing from this moving average and were below the pivot. Moreover on the daily there was a bearish pattern. There are other signals too but in short, I have bearish stance since morn and took the best available moment that came. Typing is tough for me because I only can type with 2 fingers. Just hoping my analysis and entry play out. can never be 100%. that's why I do use SL .Had the news been pro-usd I am sure this would have dropped by now

By definition impulse and calculated are complete opposite. It was either an impulse trade, or a calculated trade- but not both.

cal·cu·lat·ed
adj.
3. Made or planned to accomplish a certain purpose; deliberate


im·pulse
n.

2. A sudden wish or urge that prompts anunpremeditated act or feeling; an abrupt inclination: abrupt inclination:

Can you provide the link?
I've just been AlpariFX website and couldn't find this info.
And, btw how long you follow their forecast?

I took this trade before the candle closes. It was calculated because I waited for this to happen but took it before candle closes. you know ,we hear a lot about waiting for candle to close before entry..I anticipated this move will not close above the m.a. No serious damage but people who are new to this business should wait for candle closing before entry. That's what I was trying to differentiate

Took a quick glance..


I show 1.6173-77 for shorts, then 6306

Can anyone tell me the impact it has on gold if tapering happens? So far what I gather is $ strengthening on tapering. Has anyone done your homework for next week trading. I just spent the last 30 mins doing it. Guys, draw a few lines on your charts. You will be rewarded

Still holding to AUDUSD short and Long EURAUD.
as we can see on the EURAUD chart....
we bounced off creating an upside down head and shoulder patter.... next leg should be up on EURAUD...
meaning either Strength to EURO or Weakness in AUD, or both at the same time...

Gold will fall.... Tapering means the restriction or the reduction of money supply....
when supply falls, and demand stays unchange price rises... (in this case the value of the dollar rises, as theres less dollar in the market)

then Gold being XAUUSD, USD strength will drive XAUUSD down.
and rightfully so, as rising interest rates or tapering should be seen as signs that economy is in recovery, time for the fed to reload its bullets after using them all up on QE....

So theres less panic in the market.... and people wont be needing gold to hedge against risks/uncertainty.... the economy is becoming more and more certain as we head into recovery.

But will there be any tapering?

olu

The question wasnt whether if theres gona be tapering.... but rather When? and How Much to taper is the question....

Let me explain why Tapering is gona happen sooner or later...
The Fed after 2008 like all Central banks have only 2 tools to spur growth and for the post 2008 crisis to spur recovery....
the 2 tools are Monetary Policy...
These are both Supply side policies the Central Bank can control... Demand side cannot be controlled... demand side is due to tastes, confidence etc etc...
so on the supply side theres 2 tools
Tool 1. Interest Rate (The manipulation of Interest rate, say cutting interest rate makes borrowing cheaper... meaning supply of money cheaper hence more money supply, and causing currency weakness, but can spur economic growth by increased money in the market leading to more consumption)
Tool 2. Quantitative Easing (The other form of monetary policy, simply to print the money out of thin air at the expect of the value of money, to spur growth as well)

Now... Knowing that The Fed has dropped interest rate to near 0% and been Printing money like clockwork after the post 2008 crisis, the Fed is all out of bullets..... in fact QE1, didnt work, QE2 didnt work, had to go down to QE3 to start to see recovery.... thats like saying the FED has used up all the bullets they got.... and now to see them begin talks of tapering is like Reloading its armories for the future... and a wise move too..... but whens the right time is the question....

Sooo tapering.... When fed announced QE and near 0% interest rates (interest rates cant go any lower... it cant go negative, negative interest rate will cause a widespread banking panic, you'll see bank runs happening all over the country and people who save their money in banks would rather save the money at home... cutting short a lot of bank capital, and causing banks to suffer from lack of capital to do business)

so with near 0% interest rates, and already on QE.... the economy expects recovery before its starts to dial back down the stuff the fed have done... and for the past year or so, we've seen consistent data suggesting a recovery may be in the making.... S&P500 record highs, Bonds yields starting to rise because people are pulling money out of treasury on, as people see opportunity to start risking again... etc etc....

so taper was gona happen.... question is when and by how much... big debate was for Tapering to begin when housing market is in recovery (which it has been), and Employment is in recovery (which it has been), leading to talks of taper...

analysts have been talking of tapering as soon as this september, and i see their reasoning given the fact that their plan of tapering is to GRADUALLY reduce QE, so it mean the DOLLAR should GRADUALLY turn Bullish.

but what will really get the Dollar INCREDIBLY bullish... is unemployment rate in us dropping below 7% with participation rate rising. household income rising and GDP growth rising... that should get the Dollar to rally big time....

i hope this answers your question....