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Help Me Establish The GbpUsd After Dinner Club 40 replies

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The Club!

  • #7,781
  • Sep 12, 2013 12:32pm Sep 12, 2013 12:32pm
Quoting andexQ
Seem EU wants to go down and its confirmed by UJ & USD index..
Yes it wants to, but every time it does, the big boys run the stops.
This will continue until the retail crowd capitulate on their shorts, or until the big boys see too much risk in continuing their campaign to margin call the newbies. As a result, we may get one more push higher before it's all over.
The technicals still support one more push towards 3360/70
Will we get it? Only time will tell.
Until then, if you are short, make sure your stop is above the 345x highs... or higher.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #7,782
  • Sep 12, 2013 12:36pm Sep 12, 2013 12:36pm
Quoting theDHT
{quote} i may kick myself but, booked my gold short closed for +$52 (entry at $1382) now... some single malt see you guys trw, hope its a good one for ya!
Never kick yourself for taking profit. You can always re-enter if the opportunity presents itself. If not, there are many other opps to take advantage of.
Nice trade and congrats
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #7,783
  • Sep 12, 2013 12:49pm Sep 12, 2013 12:49pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Yes it wants to, but every time it does, the big boys run the stops. This will continue until the retail crowd capitulate on their shorts, or until the big boys see too much risk in continuing their campaign to margin call the newbies. As a result, we may get one more push higher before it's all over. The technicals still support one more push towards 3360/70 Will we get it? Only time will tell. Until then, if you are short, make sure your stop is above the 345x highs... or higher.
Thanks, you know what I already lost 2 round of Short on EU.. lol

Quoting andexQ
Seem EU wants to go down and its confirmed by UJ & USD index..
Well, I meant this time is for real..
  • #7,784
  • Sep 12, 2013 1:17pm Sep 12, 2013 1:17pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} ...and here's the text of the speech >>> http://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/key/d...0912_1.en.html In a few words he said "The Euro is good, the Euro is great, The Euro is strong, The Euro has worked" Translation: "If the Euro crumbles, I am out of a job"
Speech of the guy begins with film & basketball ?? Yea, really he's set for a burn out...
  • #7,785
  • Sep 12, 2013 1:19pm Sep 12, 2013 1:19pm
Quoting andexQ
{quote} Thanks, you know what I already lost 2 round of Short on EU.. lol {quote} Well, I meant this time is for real..
I hope so because this is becoming very boring for me. It's like watching a yoyo competition. It's fun for the first few minutes but then you almost want to shoot the contestant LOL

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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #7,786
  • Sep 12, 2013 1:23pm Sep 12, 2013 1:23pm
Quoting Delta1One
{quote} Speech of the guy begins with film & basketball ?? Yea, really he's set for a burn out...
[...In that time, the European Central Bank (ECB) has maintained price stability in line with its mandate, despite the most severe crisis since the 1930s. We have defended our currency against unfounded fears about a break-up of the euro area. All this means that countries that join the euro area today can be confident that its central pillar, its monetary policy, is sound....]

Well, is there anyone that could testify how the EUR has kept well doing as a currency despite these hard times in the 1930s ? lol
  • #7,787
  • Sep 12, 2013 1:27pm Sep 12, 2013 1:27pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Okay let's do some simple math The BLS said that 2 states (a small one and a big one) reported less than typical because they were retooling their computer systems so not all applications were counted. Now let's assume that 1. These two states filed zero claims 2. The average of the two states is pretty much equal to the average of all states. So, last week the claim number was an unadjusted 323K Divide that by 50 states = approx 6.5K per state 2 states x 6.5K = 13K 292K + 13K = 305K That's still way better...
Quite good Pips...you had the "292k" lol

USD

Unemployment Claims

292K
332K
323K
  • #7,788
  • Sep 12, 2013 1:28pm Sep 12, 2013 1:28pm
Quoting Delta1One
{quote} Speech of the guy begins with film & basketball ?? Yea, really he's set for a burn out...
He plays the part of a confident guy, but in reality it is an overinflated ego to compensate for his childish insecurities.
His whole intro was designed to entice the Latvians to like him. You think it worked?

Not sure if you watched the last news conference or not.

At one point during the question period, a Japanese journalist asked him why the ECB’s bond purchase program was working without one cent spent while the Fed and the BOJ had to spend hundreds of billions to convince markets.
Draghi's response was... “You know... It is very hard to answer this question without flattering oneself,” with a big smile on his face. The kind of smile you see on an 18 month old's face after using the potty and being praised for it.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #7,789
  • Sep 12, 2013 1:31pm Sep 12, 2013 1:31pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} He plays the part of a confident guy, but in reality it is an overinflated ego to compensate for his childish insecurities. His whole intro was designed to entice the Latvians to like him. You think it worked? Not sure if you watched the last news conference or not. At one point during the question period, a Japanese journalist asked him why the ECB’s bond purchase program was working without one cent spent while the Fed and the BOJ had to spend hundreds of billions to convince markets. Draghi's response was... “You know... It is very hard...
  • #7,790
  • Sep 12, 2013 1:38pm Sep 12, 2013 1:38pm
Quoting Delta1One
{quote}
One of these days, Draghi will google himself and find my comments. Poor guy will probably take it very badly. Maybe I should delete my post... NOT
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #7,791
  • Sep 12, 2013 1:52pm Sep 12, 2013 1:52pm
However I still don't get the point what is Latvia to the Eurzone. I mean a valid one that's worth mentioning 16 time this in the speech. Too much or not enough. 18 time would had make it square...lol.

Greek bonds is not yet completely over. Real question is what if tapering strikes at next Greek bonds maturity.
End December may be somehow interesting.

What could an unilateral default from Greece brings in the game... mmm...( I mean in matter of timing, direction, take profit & stop loss)
  • #7,792
  • Sep 12, 2013 1:54pm Sep 12, 2013 1:54pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} One of these days, Draghi will google himself and find my comments. Poor guy will probably take it very badly. Maybe I should delete my post... NOT
you may get a proposal as personal coach !!
  • #7,793
  • Sep 12, 2013 2:50pm Sep 12, 2013 2:50pm
market did not move, in my TF.
Wherever you go, there you are.
  • #7,794
  • Sep 12, 2013 2:59pm Sep 12, 2013 2:59pm
Quoting infinitus
maybe in last stages of a wave 5 ending diagonal {image}

Sid updated his count

http://elliottwavepredictions.com/wp...m-9-12-139.png
  • #7,795
  • Sep 12, 2013 3:06pm Sep 12, 2013 3:06pm
Quoting infinitus
{quote} Sid updated his count http://elliottwavepredictions.com/wp...m-9-12-139.png
Nice. How's your MMSMP/DIV table looking? Any change?

Is it possible that the lack of signal on the daily is just an anomaly of your calculations?
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Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #7,796
  • Sep 12, 2013 3:06pm Sep 12, 2013 3:06pm
Quoting milam
market did not move, in my TF.
you and I must be in the same time frame LOL
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #7,797
  • Sep 12, 2013 3:48pm Sep 12, 2013 3:48pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Nice. How's your MMSMP/DIV table looking? Any change? Is it possible that the lack of signal on the daily is just an anomaly of your calculations? {image}

Hi PT,

on the MMSMP (lower part of the table) the mean (average VPO) is asigned with a 50% probability for reversal. That is, because price here does not need to show a tendency for reversing. Price can simply run to the other side of the spectrum.

When you have a high value sell signal on 15min , 1h and 4h, and the price on daily is within the average VPO, you can bet on a downswing. Would price on daily be below the average VPO, like -2SD, when the smaller TF show high value short signal, the downswing may then only be short lived.


So what does the actual table show?

Well, Murrey Math offers some sell signals, which would get better, when price runs towards 3321 to 3336

On daily Murrey Math price it at the 2/8 MMTL, which is strong resistance. Murrey told, that reversals normally start from the even Murrey Math trading lines (MMTL)

Judging from MMSMP, best area for reversal would be around 3328-3357.


Keep in mind: when price reach on a specific TF above +3SD or below -3SD, chance gets very high, that price will continue in that direction (trending). That by itself does not rule out, that price may temporarily mean revert. But in such cases you should not bet necessarily that price goes to the other side of the spectrum
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  • #7,798
  • Sep 12, 2013 3:49pm Sep 12, 2013 3:49pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} you and I must be in the same time frame LOL
Pip, I noticed that your capital went from -6% to -0.5%, I am happy for you. That is a lot recovering in one day, may I ask you how you did it?
Wherever you go, there you are.
  • #7,799
  • Sep 12, 2013 4:03pm Sep 12, 2013 4:03pm
Quoting milam
{quote} Pip, I noticed that your capital went from -6% to -0.5%, I am happy for you. That is a lot recovering in one day, may I ask you how you did it?
Hi Milam.. That number represents the equity differential on open and closed positions on that day. It is not just the capital... unless you want to call equity the capital. Regardless, the -6% must have been an error in the trade explorer. Oanda recently archived my history and it has thrown all the calculations off scale. The number that shows now should be accurate, but the next time I close a trade whose opening date falls in a date range that has been archived, it may screw up again until trade explorer recalculates everything again and re-syncs. This will probably keep happening until all archived trades that are still open are all closed... so it may take a while.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #7,800
  • Sep 12, 2013 4:04pm Sep 12, 2013 4:04pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Hi Milam.. That number represents the equity differential on open and closed positions on that day. It is not just the capital... unless you want to call equity the capital. Regardless, the -6% must have been an error in the trade explorer. Oanda recently archived my history and it has thrown all the calculations off scale. The number that shows now should be accurate, but the next time I close a trade whose opening date falls in a date range that has been archived, it may screw up again until trade explorer recalculates everything again...
Wherever you go, there you are.
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