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Help Me Establish The GbpUsd After Dinner Club 40 replies

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The Club!

  • #7,761
  • Sep 12, 2013 7:21am Sep 12, 2013 7:21am
Quoting Islander
{quote} and for any Europhiles, at 1:40 pm European Time ECB President Draghi Speaks
...and here's the text of the speech >>> http://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/key/d...0912_1.en.html

In a few words he said "The Euro is good, the Euro is great, The Euro is strong, The Euro has worked"
Translation: "If the Euro crumbles, I am out of a job"
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #7,762
  • Sep 12, 2013 7:35am Sep 12, 2013 7:35am
US Initial jobless claims drops below 300K at 292K
First time below 300k since 2006
Obviously this has significant ramifications. Taper is on.

ADD: Oh great. Now a BLS official is saying that the drop in claims is related to faulty reporting by some states. Obviously this BLS official is short the USD LOL
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #7,763
  • Sep 12, 2013 8:02am Sep 12, 2013 8:02am
Quoting PipTrapper
US Initial jobless claims drops below 300K at 292K First time below 300k since 2006 Obviously this has significant ramifications. Taper is on. ADD: Oh great. Now a BLS official is saying that the drop in claims is related to faulty reporting by some states. Obviously this BLS official is short the USD LOL
Okay let's do some simple math

The BLS said that 2 states (a small one and a big one) reported less than typical because they were retooling their computer systems so not all applications were counted.

Now let's assume that
1. These two states filed zero claims
2. The average of the two states is pretty much equal to the average of all states.

So, last week the claim number was an unadjusted 323K
Divide that by 50 states = approx 6.5K per state
2 states x 6.5K = 13K
292K + 13K = 305K

That's still way better than last week and that is a conservative number, so the real number is probably still under 300K
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #7,764
  • Sep 12, 2013 8:19am Sep 12, 2013 8:19am
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Okay let's do some simple math.... 305K That's still way better than last week and that is a conservative number, so the real number is probably still under 300K
Well worked. Thank you.

Numbers (which I believe are often false anyway coz I'm a total cynic) out of EZ have been clearly worse than out of the US of late & with Germany's (our shining light) most recent industrial data, it's not looking good for Q3:

http://perspectives.pictet.com/2013/...julys-figures/
  • #7,765
  • Sep 12, 2013 8:42am Sep 12, 2013 8:42am
Quoting Sober_Colm
{quote} Well worked. Thank you. Numbers (which I believe are often false anyway coz I'm a total cynic) out of EZ have been clearly worse than out of the US of late & with Germany's (our shining light) most recent industrial data, it's not looking good for Q3: http://perspectives.pictet.com/2013/...julys-figures/
Germany themselves have admitted that H2 will be slower than H1. In fact they warned about this even before H1 was over. But as usual the dumbass market believes otherwise.
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #7,766
  • Sep 12, 2013 9:06am Sep 12, 2013 9:06am
Gold
update
Free Fallin'

H4
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gold h4 update 2 09.12.13.png Size: 50 KB


(link to previous post: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...07#post6959107)
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #7,767
  • Sep 12, 2013 9:12am Sep 12, 2013 9:12am
EURO
The euro remains instable as long as the euro crises will hold on.
  • #7,768
  • Sep 12, 2013 9:14am Sep 12, 2013 9:14am
EURUSD
I take my probability theory & think 1000 pips up or down seems okay for me till the end of this year.
1.2850 - 1.3650 might be my A-Range, the wider one could be 1.22 - 1.48 when a trend should come up.
I expect to make my money within the A-Range for the next weeks.
It seems not the time for swinging trades nowadays, more for scalping trades.
Long(er) term trades should be done between the A-Range IMO.
FXcube
  • #7,769
  • Sep 12, 2013 10:17am Sep 12, 2013 10:17am
Quoting Sober_Colm
GBPAUD - Stop moved to 1.706, TP is 7190 or breach of tl: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...64#post6959464.
Stopped for +158p & +174p & a somewhat disappointing rr of 1:1.8. I had hoped for more here. Still, it's better than a slap in the face with a wet fish!
  • #7,770
  • Sep 12, 2013 11:30am Sep 12, 2013 11:30am
Quoting Forexcube
EURUSD I take my probability theory & think 1000 pips up or down seems okay for me till the end of this year. 1.2850 - 1.3650 might be my A-Range, the wider one could be 1.22 - 1.48 when a trend should come up. I expect to make my money within the A-Range for the next weeks. It seems not the time for swinging trades nowadays, more for scalping trades. Long(er) term trades should be done between the A-Range IMO. FXcube
Hi Forexcube.. Greeting,

I see what you meant and I've been thinking the same, however I don't use EU directly instead using FXE as a proxy due to advantage of volume measurement.

It seem Euro will range bound between 2 horizontal redline in Weekly chart of FXE below for long period of time as indicate by low volume on the right side of blue line.
Notice that on the left side of blueline volume activity is much higher for its capable to move price in large degree, it's not the case for the right side of blueline.
So until we see increase average volume activity, in my opinion Euro will stay within redline boundaries.

Anyone want to improve/disagree feel free to do so..

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  • #7,771
  • Sep 12, 2013 11:33am Sep 12, 2013 11:33am
Quoting Sober_Colm
{quote} Stopped for +158p & +174p & a somewhat disappointing rr of 1:1.8. I had hoped for more here. Still, it's better than a slap in the face with a wet fish!
nice!
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #7,772
  • Sep 12, 2013 11:36am Sep 12, 2013 11:36am
Quoting venzen
{quote} {quote} hi DHT, Marcus and the Club, The Gold chart is amazing. I've not seen this degree of internal Fib ratio consistency in a long time. This leads me to conclude that this is not a correction but a motive wave to the upside. It is not an impulse but an expanding diagonal. Diagonals are just all over the market these days: Gold, Euro, USD, JPY, Zimbabwe Dollar, it's pervasive and the reason I believe EWI are getting the Grand Supercycle counts invalidated every few months: they're counting WXYXZ and keep downgrading degree to try and...

Hi Venzen,


unfortunately, we will know who is wrong or right only in a few weeks or months


The actual move up has the chance for the following counts now:

a) leading diagonal up; so now in wave 4 down; gets invalidated with movement below1272,7

b) move up is ABC wave A of an ABC-flat; so now down in wave B; unfortunately wave B can go far below starting point of wave A; structure of wave may give us a hint as well as momentum distribution

c) wave up is ABC and finished; now down in either straight impulse or ending diagonal


You see, we will have enough to chew on for the next months. If you shorted at /near the last top (end of the ABC), you are in a quiet comfortable situation.

If not, one has to wait now for a pullback towards 1375, which in the end may never occur
  • #7,773
  • Sep 12, 2013 11:45am Sep 12, 2013 11:45am
Golden Opportunity?

(pinch of salt required!)

Monthly
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Gold Monthly 09.12.13.png Size: 36 KB
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #7,774
  • Sep 12, 2013 11:46am Sep 12, 2013 11:46am
maybe in last stages of a wave 5 ending diagonal
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #7,775
  • Sep 12, 2013 11:56am Sep 12, 2013 11:56am
Quoting theDHT
Golden Opportunity? (pinch of salt required!) Monthly {image}

monthly S/R chart Gold
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #7,776
  • Sep 12, 2013 11:59am Sep 12, 2013 11:59am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} monthly S/R chart Gold {image}
Sweet! Thanks
Ftr, still holding my short, but looking to close depending on how this bar closes
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #7,777
  • Sep 12, 2013 12:04pm Sep 12, 2013 12:04pm
Quoting theDHT
Golden Opportunity? (pinch of salt required!) Monthly {image}
Gold could be go more down ~900
The retracement for gold could go till ~1463 (38.2 fib), 1550 (50 fib)

so also Silver ~16.60
The retracement for silver could go till ~25.60 (23,6 fib), 30.15 (38.2. fib)

If the market prices would really come up to these retracements levels it should be a great investment chance once more for going short.
Let's see in a couple of months or weeks.

FXcube
  • #7,778
  • Sep 12, 2013 12:11pm Sep 12, 2013 12:11pm
Quoting Forexcube
{quote} Gold could be go more down ~900 The retracement for gold could go till ~1463 (38.2 fib), 1550 (50 fib) so also Silver ~16.60 The retracement for silver could go till ~25.60 (23,6 fib), 30.15 (38.2. fib) FXcube
yes this is technically possible while maintaining a longer term bullish outlook (this is my personal bias)...

but, any more than that for gold (ie, materially lower than 900) would spell disaster at many levels, and for many asset classes...

that chart was for discussion only! im trading off the H4 and Daily
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #7,779
  • Sep 12, 2013 12:14pm Sep 12, 2013 12:14pm
Quoting theDHT
{quote} yes this is technically possible while maintaining a longer term bullish outlook (this is my personal bias)... but, any more than that for gold (ie, materially lower than 900) would spell disaster at many levels, and for many asset classes... that chart was for discussion only! im trading off the H4 and Daily

i may kick myself but, booked my gold short
closed for +$52 (entry at $1382)

now... some single malt

see you guys trw, hope its a good one for ya!
90% of people, are wrong about 90% of everything, 90% of the time...
  • #7,780
  • Sep 12, 2013 12:17pm Sep 12, 2013 12:17pm
Seem EU wants to go down and its confirmed by UJ & USD index..
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