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Andrews Pitchfork (Median Line)

  • #5,801
  • Sep 12, 2013 2:15am Sep 12, 2013 2:15am
Quoting Davit
{quote} Trexy I think and I am almost certain Forks should be drawn closest to original "energy" origin of the trend In your case your fork B and C points should be way back top left. I am still learning as well.
Davit could you show how you would draw it?
this is silver daily chart
  • #5,802
  • Sep 12, 2013 6:03am Sep 12, 2013 6:03am
Quoting trexy123
{quote} Davit could you show how you would draw it? this is silver daily chart
Trexy here is my take on it. I have done Silver Daily and Gold Daily. Both very similar charts.
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The things that we love tell us what we are Thanks Redsword11 and Tim Morge
  • #5,803
  • Sep 12, 2013 7:52am Sep 12, 2013 7:52am
eaglestar does it means target for silver is at $17 area?
  • #5,804
  • Sep 12, 2013 8:31am Sep 12, 2013 8:31am
Quoting trexy123
eaglestar does it means target for silver is at $17 area?
Yes the thing with the median line is that it is diagonal not horizontal. You have to move your limit entry and limit exit orders continuously according to the flow of the market. Your original target could be far away from where you eventually get out. I recommend buying a copy of Tim Morge's book Trading with Median Lines or going through all the articles and free videos. In the chart you can see I marked profit stops according to the movement of price and new pivots forming.
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The things that we love tell us what we are Thanks Redsword11 and Tim Morge
  • #5,805
  • Sep 12, 2013 1:02pm Sep 12, 2013 1:02pm
USDCHF and some 15m charts

USDCHF chart a bit complicated but some here should understand what I am drawing. Notice how price was at extremes on fork energy points
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The things that we love tell us what we are Thanks Redsword11 and Tim Morge
  • #5,806
  • Sep 13, 2013 4:17am Sep 13, 2013 4:17am
My Long Term View on EURAUD.
On the weekly we see now for the first time in years an confirmed HH and HL , meaning a shift in marketsentiment , it cold offcourse go sideways , but changes are we are now in a change in trend.
To enter i would wait for price to retrace on the 4Hrly to the supportzone at around 1.3800 which also seems to be the centerline of my fork on the daily chart.
This combinig of several timeframes is not recommended by Timothy Morge , but anyway , what do you guys think of such an approach.
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  • #5,807
  • Sep 13, 2013 4:39am Sep 13, 2013 4:39am
cable is at an interesting point , a make or break.
The blue fork is rather preliminary , but could be the way of least resistance after Us data or FOMC next week.
Just wait and see.
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  • #5,808
  • Edited 8:07am Sep 13, 2013 6:53am | Edited 8:07am
15m Chart updates
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The things that we love tell us what we are Thanks Redsword11 and Tim Morge
  • #5,809
  • Sep 14, 2013 3:35am Sep 14, 2013 3:35am
thanks for charts forkers
good weekends for all
  • #5,810
  • Edited 10:19am Sep 14, 2013 10:01am | Edited 10:19am
Quoting c49
My Long Term View on EURAUD. On the weekly we see now for the first time in years an confirmed HH and HL , meaning a shift in marketsentiment , it cold offcourse go sideways , but changes are we are now in a change in trend. To enter i would wait for price to retrace on the 4Hrly to the supportzone at around 1.3800 which also seems to be the centerline of my fork on the daily chart. This combinig of several timeframes is not recommended by Timothy Morge , but anyway , what do you guys think of such an approach. {image} {image} {image}
Very Very good I am loving it. I don't use much horizontal sr at the moment but it will show you for sure where price may reverse

For your EurAud Daily you could have also drawn a modified Schiff which would have given several entries and even though if fell out of the fork, it fell back into it at the WL1 and moved higher. It is also touching the upper WL. Many times if you find the fork with the most frequency you don't have to complicate things. I try to keep things more and more simple as I deal with multiple charts.

I also drew an AR Set for your amusement. Many times I see things a bit more unique. I am a bit new at AR sets though.

For your GBPUSD your C point has no confirmation yet on your blue fork so don't project yet. Wait until you see weakness because price could blow through your Resistance level. I drew 2 charts for you for the GBPUSD. THey are a bit complicated but it is what I see and may help.
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The things that we love tell us what we are Thanks Redsword11 and Tim Morge
  • #5,811
  • Sep 15, 2013 3:14am Sep 15, 2013 3:14am
Quoting c49
cable is at an interesting point , a make or break. The blue fork is rather preliminary , but could be the way of least resistance after Us data or FOMC next week. Just wait and see. {image}
it strikes me that there really isn't much of a discernible pattern here - i would suggest that you might be better to either look at cable in the bigger picture or maybe on a different timeframe eg on a 240min timeframe such as the one i showed in post 5783.

and euraud daily because of the massive move is one of the few crosses that does not work so well with a fork at the moment.

you can't always find a pattern or validate a fork but there are so many pairs that do work very well it might be better to concentrate on them.

one other technical point - there is no guarantee that the blue fork's C is yet in place therefore the fork is pure speculation and to my eyes potentially misleading given the move higher in cable. once a C has been established you could start to think about a fork to the downside...... again see what is happening on lower timeframes to guide you

just a thought -please take it the right way
  • #5,812
  • Sep 15, 2013 3:38am Sep 15, 2013 3:38am
Thx Eaglestar,
I agree that the Bluefork on GBPUSD is not confirmed, it was preliminary and maybe it was better not to project it yet.
And ,seeing your blue fork on daily GBP , I see I really should use the WL's , I tend to throw away too quickly a fork when price goes too far outside the fork.
GBP has already broken out and at 1.600 is a 1.27 fib extension and at 1.6022 a 78.65 retracement , so i guess that is the level gbp has to see first before a correction (it seems also to be around a crossing of your fork and AR lines on the Daily) , so a lot of confluence in that area.

I love your AR lines on the EURAUD , its a textbook one !!
Thx again for your advice.
  • #5,813
  • Sep 15, 2013 4:14am Sep 15, 2013 4:14am
Quoting cg uno
{quote} it strikes me that there really isn't much of a discernible pattern here - i would suggest that you might be better to either look at cable in the bigger picture or maybe on a different timeframe eg on a 240min timeframe such as the one i showed in post 5783. and euraud daily because of the massive move is one of the few crosses that does not work so well with a fork at the moment. you can't always find a pattern or validate a fork but there are so many pairs that do work very well it might be better to concentrate on them. one other technical...

No problem Cg uno
I agree, I better should not have drawn the blue fork yet on cable.
My approach is not solely based on median lines .
I always try to find some confluence. As for cable 4 hr , i see that there is an important area around 1.6000-1.6020 , and it is just that , an area to WATCH carefully what price will do there.
THe same goes for the EURAUD chart , Priceaction shows that marketbehaviour is changing since several years. but as we are likely not trading from a weekly chart we have to find better entry points at alower timeframe.
Thx again
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  • #5,814
  • Sep 15, 2013 5:17am Sep 15, 2013 5:17am
How do we determine which are the 3 points to draw the main fork ?
  • #5,815
  • Edited 11:59am Sep 15, 2013 5:40am | Edited 11:59am
Quoting trexy123
How do we determine which are the 3 points to draw the main fork ?
the mechanistic approach is to use swing high - swing low - swing high for a downtrend and vice versa for an uptrend - remember to try andrews, schiff and modified schiff when doing so. to my mind there has to be some artistic licence that goes with this in order to find the true path of price.
  • #5,816
  • Sep 16, 2013 7:51am Sep 16, 2013 7:51am
Quoting trexy123
How do we determine which are the 3 points to draw the main fork ?

Basic Median Lines, i.e. pitchforks are intended to be a true leading indicator, showing the direction and probable destination, of the third, in a series of consecutive series of changes of state in price action. Notice I used "changes of state," not necessarily highs or lows. An example, price moving in a directional thrust and then going into a consolidation period/range, the following extension should be a byproduct of the initial two moves (changes of state - thrust and consolidation or retracement) using the starting and ending points of a range for the second and third points of the fork would be a better choice than anchoring to any false break or insignificant breech in the obvious range making a higher/lower point.

The previous poster made the point that there is some artistic license involved, on the flip-side, there are some basic ground rules that are needed if you're attempting to use the tool as it was intended.

regards
  • #5,817
  • Sep 16, 2013 2:47pm Sep 16, 2013 2:47pm
Mabey some action reaction ?
1 AUDUSD
2 usdcad
3 cable

http://charts.mql5.com/2/531/audusd-...ancial-pty.png

http://charts.mql5.com/2/531/usdcad-...ancial-pty.png

http://charts.mql5.com/2/531/gbpusd-...ancial-pty.png
  • #5,818
  • Sep 17, 2013 12:53am Sep 17, 2013 12:53am
Boardwalk Empire - Arnold Rothstein the Gambler

Inserted Video
"GIVE ME 3 POINTS IN SPACE IN TIME AND WATCH ME CREATE MAGIC."
  • #5,819
  • Sep 17, 2013 7:50am Sep 17, 2013 7:50am
Quoting kapital
Boardwalk Empire - Arnold Rothstein the Gambler http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JhbhExed-OE
I would say he doesn't know much about risk management. Seems more like a martingale strategy
The things that we love tell us what we are Thanks Redsword11 and Tim Morge
  • #5,820
  • Sep 17, 2013 7:53am Sep 17, 2013 7:53am
Quoting visler
Mabey some action reaction ? 1 AUDUSD 2 usdcad 3 cable {image} {image} {image}
Looks great to me Keep practicing bro
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The things that we love tell us what we are Thanks Redsword11 and Tim Morge
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