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AUD/USD

  • #64,841
  • Sep 11, 2013 5:43pm Sep 11, 2013 5:43pm
Quoting pips29
{quote} Spartan, can you please let me take my profit and then fall for you to reload long. I see a 100pips for grab on each of these pairs e/u and usd/chf. Don't take the wrong direction or you will be giving 100 pips to somebody else
I'm happy to, not sure if the market is though.
Well I've shedded around 1/3 of my long positions and looking to add more at lower levels. Who knows what the final employment number will be but with so many accumulated positions long I'd rather take profit now and reload if the opportunity arises. If news good and aussie jumps still good news for my other 2/3 positions.

As I have said before, The whole world (figure of speach) is short Aussie yet look where we are. All forecasts are ridiculously low and look where we are. Once bears turn to bulls and some bulls get off the sideline into the game we will be sitting above parity. (in my opinion. keep feeling the need to qualify that)
  • #64,842
  • Sep 11, 2013 5:54pm Sep 11, 2013 5:54pm
We've still got a gap that needs to be filled from Aug 30

Provided we get a catalyst for shorts (be it jobs tonight, or US data tomorrow) that will be my target.
  • #64,843
  • Sep 11, 2013 5:57pm Sep 11, 2013 5:57pm
Hey guys! I'm new to forex. Would just like to ask your opinion about the news release release later.

What's your opinion? Do you think the news will cause a spike up or down?

Thanks!
  • #64,844
  • Sep 11, 2013 6:12pm Sep 11, 2013 6:12pm
Quoting SpartanTrade
{quote} I'm happy to, not sure if the market is though. Well I've shedded around 1/3 of my long positions and looking to add more at lower levels. Who knows what the final employment number will be but with so many accumulated positions long I'd rather take profit now and reload if the opportunity arises. If news good and aussie jumps still good news for my other 2/3 positions. As I have said before, The whole world (figure of speach) is short Aussie yet look where we are. All forecasts are ridiculously low and look where we are. Once bears turn...
This is also what it looks like when we have a bull or bear head fake. Not saying that's whats happening, just saying it looks the same.

I'm not at my charts, but I recall one (maybe two) out of ordinary long bull candles (with high volume) on the 1H that didn't justify. One that broke the potential down trend reversal and put us back exactly at resistance, and one that broke the resistance and put us just above. Someone is keeping us where we are on purpose, setting up for the next move. I would expect to see quite a violent movement after jobs, or with tomorrows US news.

If news is bad, beware the headfake.
  • #64,845
  • Sep 11, 2013 6:14pm Sep 11, 2013 6:14pm
Here is my play for today.

We are two hours from news, give or take a few minutes.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: PlaytheNews.JPG Size: 223 KB


I just established a large up position. I have no idea whether the news will cause this to go up or down, but due to the trend line, I believe we will come up from where we are now before the news hits.

I will put in a very tight stop. If news causes us to go down, it will hit my stop and I won't lose anything. If news causes us to go up, I'll keep moving my stop up over time and hope to not get stopped out.
  • #64,846
  • Sep 11, 2013 6:33pm Sep 11, 2013 6:33pm
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} This is also what it looks like when we have a bull or bear head fake. Not saying that's whats happening, just saying it looks the same. I'm not at my charts, but I recall one (maybe two) out of ordinary long bull candles (with high volume) on the 1H that didn't justify. One that broke the potential down trend reversal and put us back exactly at resistance, and one that broke the resistance and put us just above. Someone is keeping us where we are on purpose, setting up for the next move. I would expect to see quite a violent movement after...
We must be careful, that's why i shed some positions this morning
Headfake sounds like a term someone i knew a while ago used quite often. You didn't happen to deal with Tom Strignano by any chance?
  • #64,847
  • Sep 11, 2013 7:00pm Sep 11, 2013 7:00pm
Quoting jcedpao
Hey guys! I'm new to forex. Would just like to ask your opinion about the news release release later. What's your opinion? Do you think the news will cause a spike up or down? Thanks!
Very often, both. Up and down. Or down and up.
Don't be smart. Be rich.
  • #64,848
  • Sep 11, 2013 7:00pm Sep 11, 2013 7:00pm
Quoting Baggi
If you're into charting, it looks like the chart pattern is a W.
Yes it is.
Don't be smart. Be rich.
  • #64,849
  • Sep 11, 2013 7:17pm Sep 11, 2013 7:17pm
A breakout trade with [email protected]
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Going to bed now.Keeping fingers crossed. going for r:r 1:3. Not triggerred yet
the cautious seldom err....C
  • #64,850
  • Sep 11, 2013 7:22pm Sep 11, 2013 7:22pm
Spartan if you are in Sydney, maybe u can by me a beer ...i mean, after all I am funding all your long positions
  • #64,851
  • Sep 11, 2013 7:24pm Sep 11, 2013 7:24pm
based on oil prices, inflation expectations should come out higher this time.
  • #64,852
  • Sep 11, 2013 7:36pm Sep 11, 2013 7:36pm
Quoting SpartanTrade
{quote} We must be careful, that's why i shed some positions this morning Headfake sounds like a term someone i knew a while ago used quite often. You didn't happen to deal with Tom Strignano by any chance?
No sir, it may just be an American term....Tom sounds American, stringnano doesnt though. Italian?
  • #64,853
  • Sep 11, 2013 7:38pm Sep 11, 2013 7:38pm
Quoting JeremyWS
{quote} order book of what?

AUD/USD. ie Depth of Market.
  • #64,854
  • Sep 11, 2013 7:43pm Sep 11, 2013 7:43pm
Head fake? Seems like pretty decent resistance just broken with 45 min to go... someone get the news early?
  • #64,855
  • Sep 11, 2013 7:50pm Sep 11, 2013 7:50pm
This is why everyone said be careful. Sucker people in on a break and then come crashing down.

Of course, I haven't got a clue if that's what's happening, but if you're thinking a head fake, this could be it.

As for me, I just want it to keep going up. It can stop going up at 9450 to take a rest.
  • #64,856
  • Sep 11, 2013 7:51pm Sep 11, 2013 7:51pm
Quoting thewriter30
Erebus. PM as in personal Message? I am not sure... i see nothing...i just woke up 1 hour ago though.... can you try again? cheers ps. Please AUssie go down! (prayer of the day)
I have the Subject box for PM, but no message or where to send?

Can you PM me?

And Aussie can go down after hit my Profit Target

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It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
  • #64,857
  • Sep 11, 2013 7:51pm Sep 11, 2013 7:51pm
Spartan, me again. i pay you 20% of my profits if you give me your predictions.... fair business prop, right?
Allien, you still think your pattern prediction will hold true?
  • #64,858
  • Sep 11, 2013 7:59pm Sep 11, 2013 7:59pm
Quoting edindzeko
Head fake? Seems like pretty decent resistance just broken with 45 min to go... someone get the news early?
Could be. Volumes similar, 3 very similar "breakouts" through small resistance. I'm still thinking someone is directly putting us here and setting the market up.

Although my volumes only show a small piece of the total market volume, so it could be wrong.

I'm holding shorts. If news is good though I'll be cutting them. Once it comes out the hand will play itself pretty obviously.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #64,859
  • Sep 11, 2013 8:03pm Sep 11, 2013 8:03pm
If the price moves up before a news break is that a sign of people loading shorts or loading longs?

I guess it depends on liquidity also, if everyone is trying to sell and there are no buyers, that could drive the price up to right?
  • #64,860
  • Sep 11, 2013 8:04pm Sep 11, 2013 8:04pm
This price is no coincidence. 0.0

ok, I'm done talking.
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