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AUD/USD

  • #64,541
  • Sep 9, 2013 8:29pm Sep 9, 2013 8:29pm
News in one minute ..................
The More You Learn, The More You Earn.....
  • #64,542
  • Sep 9, 2013 8:41pm Sep 9, 2013 8:41pm
GETTING STOPPED OUT?

Anyone in the last few days of this torturous slow rise of the AUD , have any of you gotten stopped out. I have 2 or 3 times, and I use nothing lower than a 60m chart. Yesterday I announced I was getting into the EUR, JPY AND usd SHORT.....against the AUD. It was the end of the Asian session and the London came at 3 and nothing was moving so i left my 30 pip stops in place and dozed off.

LAST TIME I LEAVE A 30 PIP STOP EVER AGAIN!!! -( My new philosophy: If you are using 60 min charts or higher and you do not have a minimum of 200 pip stop to prevent stupid, low volume fluctuations that seem to be happening more and more why even get in at all if you dont have the confidence of of a 'level 200" or more? . (We never had big wicks and tails on low volume and then have 2 smaller solid bars following on triple that volume like we are seeing now. Its almost unheard of!Dont let them use you as bait and for their Christmas bonusses. If you lose, make sure its because you were wrong, never let it be because the mm's played a game on you. Then you cant win in the long run.

My point is if you are going into the pool ,either go in like a man, or just watch and wait. Dont " stick your toe in the water"(as I used to call it to justify a pure gamble or a play on something already overbought) jump in or dont! How much have we all lost with those "feelers" and then added to it and then maybe got stopped out and got back in and suddenly that "feeler" is no longer a feel. Its a punch.....right in your face! I count that as over 60% of my losses in my lifetime. Anyway, here is the thing, if you dont like something enough to give it 200 pips leeway, why are you even bothering at all?" I sleep so much better at night knowing the chance of me getting stopped and missing a runaway train are now almost zero. I try to use 2,3 and in this AUD trade 400 pip stops. My nerves are much, much calmer now and trading is a lot more fun.....and profitable. And you can bet if I can sleep all day, it is profitable. Im no big player, but I grind it out. Good luck and widen those stops. Youll sleep way better at night. And you can actually do something on the Internet aside from watching every 15 or 60 min bar that wastes your whole day because now you know you arent getting out no matter what for at least several hrs at a time. In my case, its days!!! IM VERY LONG THIS AUD. GOOD LUCK TO ALL.
  • #64,543
  • Sep 9, 2013 9:21pm Sep 9, 2013 9:21pm
It just wants to keep going Up, up up. China Data should boost it further
  • #64,544
  • Edited 10:01pm Sep 9, 2013 9:21pm | Edited 10:01pm
Quoting Silat50
GETTING STOPPED OUT? Anyone in the last few days of this torturous slow rise of the AUD , have any of you gotten stopped out. I have 2 or 3 times, and I use nothing lower than a 60m chart. Yesterday I announced I was getting into the EUR, JPY AND usd SHORT.....against the AUD. It was the end of the Asian session and the London came at 3 and nothing was moving so i left my 30 pip stops in place and dozed off. LAST TIME I LEAVE A 30 PIP STOP EVER AGAIN!!! -( My new philosophy: If you are using 60 min charts or higher and you do not have a minimum...
Ty professor:nerd:

ALTHOUGH, AUDUSD has been from .8888 to .9265, currently, in a week. Not exactly a slow rise
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #64,545
  • Sep 9, 2013 9:54pm Sep 9, 2013 9:54pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2013-09-09-TOS_audusd.png Size: 101 KB
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #64,546
  • Sep 9, 2013 10:08pm Sep 9, 2013 10:08pm
Quoting Pip Anon
{image}
I don't believe that a break of 0.9300 leads to a clear path to 0.9450. Zoom out on your chart and draw a line on 0.9390.
  • #64,547
  • Sep 9, 2013 10:14pm Sep 9, 2013 10:14pm
Quoting 2+2=4ex
{quote} I don't believe that a break of 0.9300 leads to a clear path to 0.9450. Zoom out on your chart and draw a line on 0.9390.
Ok ok ill give you that :-p give a man some slack, been waiting for .93 forever lol
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #64,548
  • Sep 9, 2013 10:55pm Sep 9, 2013 10:55pm
Quoting Pip Anon
{quote} Ty professor:nerd: ALTHOUGH, AUDUSD has been from .8888 to .9265, currently, in a week. Not exactly a slow rise

Pip,

WHEN YOU ARE ONLY AWAKE FOR THE ASIAN SESSION....TRUST ME...ITS A VERY,VERY sloooooow rise. I actually pity Asian traders. I truly suspect that the Asian firms make 75% of their traders come in at 8am EST for the NY session.
  • #64,549
  • Sep 9, 2013 11:03pm Sep 9, 2013 11:03pm
Quoting Silat50
{quote} Pip, WHEN YOU ARE ONLY AWAKE FOR THE ASIAN SESSION....TRUST ME...ITS A VERY,VERY sloooooow rise. I actually pity Asian traders. I truly suspect that the Asian firms make 75% of their traders come in at 8am EST for the NY session.
Lol, Silat I agree. Unless there is major news like a BOJ statement I don't even bother. I mean I have seen 9 pip ranges on majors for 8 hrs lol
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #64,550
  • Sep 9, 2013 11:15pm Sep 9, 2013 11:15pm
China data next may change the picture above....& gold is down steady
  • #64,551
  • Sep 9, 2013 11:31pm Sep 9, 2013 11:31pm
I agree it's a crappy session, but if you like me live in aussie land, it's an option to trade while wide awake.

I don't know .... i believe fundamentally should go down, and not even close to parity in the next decade.... I wish it were, I want my dollars to be strong, but it ain't what the "leaders" want.
RBA intervene? Well, it's a good point, yet they have NOT intervened during the last 2 years...i honestly wonder why if they want it low, they don't
  • #64,552
  • Sep 9, 2013 11:34pm Sep 9, 2013 11:34pm
Quoting thewriter30
I agree it's a crappy session, but if you like me live in aussie land, it's an option to trade while wide awake. I don't know .... i believe fundamentally should go down, and not even close to parity in the next decade.... I wish it were, I want my dollars to be strong, but it ain't what the "leaders" want. RBA intervene? Well, it's a good point, yet they have NOT intervened during the last 2 years...i honestly wonder why if they want it low, they don't
Strong AUD not good for Australia, it will move all factory out of Australia , 0.80 ~ 0.90 fair value
Mohan
  • #64,553
  • Sep 9, 2013 11:41pm Sep 9, 2013 11:41pm
AUS_Sep !!! Such cheap Running now a days just going up up up ............
will you can tell me when AUS_Sep will move down ? 13_Sep is the last date of my AUS_Sep
Contract Big reason to worry about it Running my short with Big Big Lose ,
plz Expert Rep me

AUS_Sep
  • #64,554
  • Sep 9, 2013 11:45pm Sep 9, 2013 11:45pm
I agree that it should come down, but given increasing China data and little spouts of increasing AUD data recently (housing approvals, business confidence) a run up is expected. It's been in a six month downtrend. Moves like this are expected IMO.

I don't see why .94-95 is out of the question. It would still be over 1,000 pips from it's top. I think .8769 should be the bottom.

Buuuuuuut, going from 1.05xx to .85 (as many think) in less than a hear and holding it there is extremely unlikely. Mid to low .80 over the next 12-16 months I think.
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #64,555
  • Sep 10, 2013 12:00am Sep 10, 2013 12:00am
Quoting Pip Anon
I agree that it should come down, but given increasing China data and little spouts of increasing AUD data recently (housing approvals, business confidence) a run up is expected. It's been in a six month downtrend. Moves like this are expected IMO. I don't see why .94-95 is out of the question. It would still be over 1,000 pips from it's top. I think .8769 should be the bottom. Buuuuuuut, going from 1.05xx to .85 (as many think) in less than a hear and holding it there is extremely unlikely. Mid to low .80 over the next 12-16 months I think.
I am talking about next 3 or 4 days Movement lol and u says 12 or 16 Month :O this Sep my AUS_Sep CONTRACT WILL be dead if aus running more up side then i will close my trade with big big lose
  • #64,556
  • Sep 10, 2013 12:04am Sep 10, 2013 12:04am
Quoting Malik taxila
{quote} I am talking about next 3 or 4 days Movement lol and u says 12 or 16 Month :O this Sep my AUS_Sep CONTRACT WILL be dead if aus running more up side then i will close my trade with big big lose
I just think that it has become so bearish, short at all costs that it will just refuse to go down. It's already down a lot.

And some say, "don't fight the RBA." But, Australian is in a slowdown. I don't even think it's considered a recession. Besides talk ("maybe" additional rate cuts) they don't really need to step in. Over the last few years the cash rate came down from 7%.

There fundamentals stink, I agree. But they are not the US 2009 fundamentals that needed near zero rates.
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #64,557
  • Sep 10, 2013 12:20am Sep 10, 2013 12:20am
Quoting Pip Anon
{quote} I just think that it has become so bearish, short at all costs that it will just refuse to go down. It's already down a lot. And some say, "don't fight the RBA." But, Australian is in a slowdown. I don't even think it's considered a recession. Besides talk ("maybe" additional rate cuts) they don't really need to step in. Over the last few years the cash rate came down from 7%. There fundamentals stink, I agree. But they are not the US 2009 fundamentals that needed near zero rates.
China data will be good. AUD will go up to sky. 0.93+
  • #64,558
  • Sep 10, 2013 12:22am Sep 10, 2013 12:22am
I really don't understand why so many think that the aussie fundamentally belongs where it is let alone sub 88-85.

1. China is not collapsing in terms of its manufacturing
2. Resources boom has not ended and will not end in the next decade
3. Everyone has been bearish already pricing in lower rates/poor growth etc for quite some time
4. Acceptable GDP this year will bounce to somewhere around 4.5-5% next year
5. New gov't = less taxation = increased investment = increased employment etc etc

Fundamentally as much as it hurts our export markets AUD DOES NOT belong below parity. Exporters should have hedged and continue to hedge to protect themselves. IMO, we are headed to parity and beyond not the sub 85's people are talking about.
  • #64,559
  • Sep 10, 2013 12:27am Sep 10, 2013 12:27am
Quoting Pip Anon
I agree that it should come down, but given increasing China data and little spouts of increasing AUD data recently (housing approvals, business confidence) a run up is expected. It's been in a six month downtrend. Moves like this are expected IMO. I don't see why .94-95 is out of the question. It would still be over 1,000 pips from it's top. I think .8769 should be the bottom. Buuuuuuut, going from 1.05xx to .85 (as many think) in less than a hear and holding it there is extremely unlikely. Mid to low .80 over the next 12-16 months I think.
I agree. 94 to 95 is merely the Fib 38% line and I think authorities will do whatever over the next year to encourage a low currency around historical averages (80 - 85) in an effort to appease local industry.
  • #64,560
  • Sep 10, 2013 12:31am Sep 10, 2013 12:31am
FF Calendar stinks. CNY data already out, beat on everything
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
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