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  • #64,441
  • Sep 8, 2013 9:57pm Sep 8, 2013 9:57pm
Quoting Cazadores
Wow Gentlemen! I would have agreed with you before the election, however in my view it is priced in with the high test of .9216 this morning. However, that manipulated Chineese CPI coming this morning @ 11:30 will be the acid test for the day... Fed taper appears to be tapering off the table for now, however despite higher mortgage rates based on the higher 10 year note, people have resumed buying homes which along with unemployment are the two main concerns of the FED. With that said, I well know Bernanke is a specialist in the slow recovery of...
First off, the usa is doing fabulous considering every economist believed with all the prining money that Ben did w'e'd have hyper inflation now. We dont. What we did do is give a looooot of lazy people a free ride in paying off their mortgages with litttle penalty or consequence for being very very late. That bothers people like me who actually want to work for what I get. Back in 2009 it was so bad people were moving out of their houses without making 1 payment and had the gall to take the ceiling fans and strip the house down as if to see FU to the banks that were kind enough to lend them a dime with no credit. That said, if Ben can get past that and the derivitve debacle, he can get past anything. Not to say we wont suffer some for it. The thing that is going to make all of us wish we got into stocks and not Forex is if you look at the ATR on alomost all the pairs, especially the AUD, it plummets by the day. In english that means the candles are getting smaller with the volatility getting smaller on a daily basis. This has not been a very exciting year to trade. It is getting worse. Why? Are the hedge funds running out of suckers to hfund their games and even they...are getting chewed up by the spread!!! I always believed, in the end, the brokers get it all. Because the guys who make a living trading dont realize if they are frequent traders they gave at least 1/2 their money each yr in spreads, stop hitting and other games and fees,hidden or not. Anyone who cpould make even 75k a year trading Forex,and you shouldnt be wasting your time if thats not yur min goal, is smart enough to make 10x that with a real Internet business. Why do ypou think all the broke traders are selling systems and now...psychology for the trader. And we now have authors who are so lame, they are admitting they never traded in their lives and still their books sell.

That said...if the atr is drying up on many pairs, what is going to make this AUD move?????? We might be in for a looooong year,boys.

BTW.....one sign of what I say is the Prime Minister of New Zealand made a direct statement saying that every pair with NZD is at least 15% overbought, and it dropped for 3-4 days maybe 3-4%. Whats that about? And look at Japan, they tell us right out they are committing trillions to their dollar staying low, and it works for like 10 weeks and where is it now? Nothing wants to take charge, nothing wants to take make a huge trend. Not one of the major pairs. I should go back to stocks. We all know many of us would if we had the bankroll. I do but I got addicted to this. Plus I love trading at night. -) Go AUD! I'd laugh if its in the same exact spot next month.
  • #64,442
  • Sep 8, 2013 10:00pm Sep 8, 2013 10:00pm
It seems all the kids trade AU and EU.. You rarely get these childish arguments you always have here elsewhere.
  • #64,443
  • Sep 8, 2013 10:01pm Sep 8, 2013 10:01pm
As an aside...when do pairs make their biggest moves? When we are tired of waiting for them to break out and we forget about them! Then we get 3 or 4 false breakouts we jump on that clean our clock. We get so mad we forget about the pair even longer, and then, and those who followed forex for yrs know what Im talking about, you get 3 huge daily bars that are so big and its in the news, and you see you missed the first move. So you either jump in when RSI is at 70 and you stand still for 2-3 weeks. Or you wait for a retraxce and it never happens and the move goes on for weeks, you get a pause, you jump in again and its done moving again for weeks. Wash, rinse and repeat. More accounts get blown out by this one scenario then almost any other, id say.
  • #64,444
  • Sep 8, 2013 10:01pm Sep 8, 2013 10:01pm
Quoting Silat50
{quote} First off, the usa is doing fabulous considering every economist believed with all the prining money that Ben did w'e'd have hyper inflation now. We dont. What we did do is give a looooot of lazy people a free ride in paying off their mortgages with litttle penalty or consequence for being very very late. That bothers people like me who actually want to work for what I get. Back in 2009 it was so bad people were moving out of their houses without making 1 payment and had the gall to take the ceiling fans and strip the house down as if to...
Huh? The US has underperformed, and every economist is positive while the data not so much.
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #64,445
  • Sep 8, 2013 10:03pm Sep 8, 2013 10:03pm
Quoting Silat50
{quote} First off, the usa is doing fabulous considering every economist believed with all the prining money that Ben did w'e'd have hyper inflation now. We dont. What we did do is give a looooot of lazy people a free ride in paying off their mortgages with litttle penalty or consequence for being very very late. That bothers people like me who actually want to work for what I get. Back in 2009 it was so bad people were moving out of their houses without making 1 payment and had the gall to take the ceiling fans and strip the house...
You actually do have Inflation.... In real terms US inflation is probably up at 7-8% why do you think people are suffering given the fact Income rise is being outpaced?? because there is inflation going on in US....
the calculation of US' inflation is in itself a BIG Question mark if not bigger than China's way of calculating Inflation....

US suffers from inflation... and not the right kind.... the systemic one called Cost-Push Inflation... rather than China's Demand Pulled Inflation...
why do you think US wages are rising so slowly??
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #64,446
  • Sep 8, 2013 10:05pm Sep 8, 2013 10:05pm
Quoting iNZane
yep AUD/NZD can be tricky. AUD USD is in some ways the better option to buy aussi strength but AUD/NZD eliminates some of that USA based taper on/off nonsense.
AUDJPY? AUDCHF?
  • #64,447
  • Sep 8, 2013 10:07pm Sep 8, 2013 10:07pm
Quoting borngreat007
It seems all the kids trade AU and EU.. You rarely get these childish arguments you always have here elsewhere.

The silly people and the haters ALWAYS leave once people get smart and ignore them. Its on every thread sometime or another. To me, life itself gives a trader, or even a human being of any sort so little encouragement and real motivation to perservere, those are the only people one should communicate with here because we are playing the toughest game in the world. And people bringing you down will take you with them. Overall this board I like because you get a lot of good charts shown here. Im tired of people giving 5 minute arguments and showing nothing visual to back it up. I gave a very good argument in my last 2 posts why this AUD may be stuck in mud but I admit Im too lazy to copy and paste charts. Im over 50, Thats not my game. Lets pray volume comes back into this, and what I see now will help us now more than anything, is if the GOLD markets go beserk in either direction again. Or oil. Seems like many Forex funds are either getting blown out, or just playing longer term ball. You can see it in the price action all year.
  • #64,448
  • Sep 8, 2013 10:08pm Sep 8, 2013 10:08pm
Quoting AJhustler88
{quote} perfect example of the typical forexfactory idiot. is english even your first language? i give you an analogy and you twist my words. anyone who has half a brain will see that. if u were keeping track properly u would know im 4 for 5 on calls.



thanks FF for the free entertainment......4 calls and he is talking more than what Soros spoke all life

last I checked English as a 1st language is not a requirement of FF.....one needs to write knowing that so the articulation is important
  • #64,449
  • Sep 8, 2013 10:15pm Sep 8, 2013 10:15pm
Quoting snowpuppie
{quote} Neutral data. @fxtyrant - Are you short because you think we've hit a consolidation zone with a short Aussie bias?
i think fxtyrant short because there divergence signal on AUDUSD
  • #64,450
  • Sep 8, 2013 10:19pm Sep 8, 2013 10:19pm
Quoting Silat50
{quote} The silly people and the haters ALWAYS leave once people get smart and ignore them. Its on every thread sometime or another. To me, life itself gives a trader, or even a human being of any sort so little encouragement and real motivation to perservere, those are the only people one should communicate with here because we are playing the toughest game in the world. And people bringing you down will take you with them. Overall this board I like because you get a lot of good charts shown here. Im tired of people giving 5 minute arguments and...
Banks are avoiding trading Forex Spot for obvious reasons.... did you know about the Dodd-Frank Act??
banks are basically FUCKED because prior to the 2008 crisis, investment bank could've tapped into the retail bank for capital and use this capital to leverage up to 1:20 times....

basically betting on the forex market on credit 20 times larger than the amount they held in their deposits...
the dodd frank act which passed in 2012 (still some moderations here at there) along with Basel III capital requirements being enforced in Europe...

a lot of potential money has been held back from the market..... by increasing rules and regulations....
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #64,451
  • Sep 8, 2013 10:20pm Sep 8, 2013 10:20pm
Quoting edindzeko
{quote} AUDJPY? AUDCHF?

jpy and chf have their own manipulations going on. isn't the chf still linked with eur? when the big central banks shake the market (or the market shakes because it thinks there's something happening) the effect seems to be the same on NZD and AUD. i watch soft vs hard commodities for direction
  • #64,452
  • Sep 8, 2013 10:21pm Sep 8, 2013 10:21pm
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The More You Learn, The More You Earn.....
  • #64,453
  • Sep 8, 2013 10:25pm Sep 8, 2013 10:25pm
Quoting Surgical
{quote} Hustler, I'm sure you can dismiss all the criticism by showing your account / performance figures and balance like Alien has. How about you post the last couple of weeks for us. Thanks in advance
Thanks , 6 hours this week of profit to date...................
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The More You Learn, The More You Earn.....
  • #64,454
  • Sep 8, 2013 10:27pm Sep 8, 2013 10:27pm
Hi Silat 50-
No disrespect here. Your piece is very complicated to follow but if it's working for you, more power to you. My reasoning is based on chasing the 10 yr note around for over 10 years picking off other Brokers and getting my clients better deals and me more referals. I clearly understand more than half the world including many Americans are pissed off about the printing/ Keynsian approach, but I think we can all agree it got the US in a much better position than say 2011.Even in it's deepest peril, Oil was still traded in USD. My points are not to create an ethical argument but a "what is working dynamic point of view". The real question in my mind is will a more moderate US housing recovery sustain on it's own legs with the 10 year rising( I suspect uncle Bens as well)?As far as AUD, the writing is on the wall and I cannot see anything in the next week or so to support it not to mention the AUD unenjoymnet report come Thursday.If you see something different, please feel free to show me the money.

BTW-I trade other instruments outside FOREX and just looking to transfer my skillset and learn from more seasoned people. I was up 105% my first three weeks shorting the AUD, however gave nearly half of that back last week, so again I am trying to learn from my successes and failures. In my brief time, my observation is that some people make this overly complicated when I only look at simple paramaters such as trending, fundamentals, bar charts(have not fully embraced the candle bit yet),21,50 & 200 day moving averages, Fibonacci and a bit of hedging and arbitrage.

I did appreciate your wide berth of halving the trade size and the stops to 200-400. I have been doing this and only got burned once(last week of course).
Hey just here to learn and hopefully contribute my 2C so as to make us all $$.


Regards-


Caz
  • #64,455
  • Sep 8, 2013 10:27pm Sep 8, 2013 10:27pm
Quoting forexalien
. {image} {image}
LOL....
classy

btw congrats with your early week success dude! keep it up.
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #64,456
  • Sep 8, 2013 10:29pm Sep 8, 2013 10:29pm
Quoting Silat50
{quote} The silly people and the haters ALWAYS leave once people get smart and ignore them. Its on every thread sometime or another. To me, life itself gives a trader, or even a human being of any sort so little encouragement and real motivation to perservere, those are the only people one should communicate with here because we are playing the toughest game in the world. And people bringing you down will take you with them. Overall this board I like because you get a lot of good charts shown here. Im tired of people giving 5 minute arguments and...
You are right..we get the best charts here
  • #64,457
  • Sep 8, 2013 10:34pm Sep 8, 2013 10:34pm
Yes to Lurkers to show charts.............

No to Trollers.............
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The More You Learn, The More You Earn.....
  • #64,458
  • Sep 8, 2013 10:35pm Sep 8, 2013 10:35pm
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The More You Learn, The More You Earn.....
  • #64,459
  • Sep 8, 2013 11:05pm Sep 8, 2013 11:05pm
Quoting jeffryso14
{quote} i think fxtyrant short because there divergence signal on AUDUSD
Well you know me very well
i had a diverence on the audusd h4 chart with ADX filter showing bears are ready to take back control
problem though is that i may have jumped the gun with this one as williams%r suggests we havent reached overbought zone for this short to be a high probability trade
but we shall see
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #64,460
  • Sep 8, 2013 11:26pm Sep 8, 2013 11:26pm
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} Well you know me very well i had a diverence on the audusd h4 chart with ADX filter showing bears are ready to take back control problem though is that i may have jumped the gun with this one as williams%r suggests we havent reached overbought zone for this short to be a high probability trade but we shall see

yup.. i read your post before and u like trading divergence..
im buy EURGBP right now because divergence too
but i'm still not sure about AUDUSD.. maybe later i will short too
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