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Mastering the Art of Trading

  • #481
  • Sep 8, 2013 3:37am Sep 8, 2013 3:37am
  • #482
  • Edited 4:55am Sep 8, 2013 4:40am | Edited 4:55am
Just my Lamy thoughts...
EurSgd is a definite no-go...
I think GBPDKK has the most space...
EG has the most confluence, which might makes it a higher probability trade.
EC looks good too.. but i don't know. I just got this feeling if something was missing here... Maybe the confluence?

However note that we got 3 pairs with EUR in it. We have to pick the best one. (Cause if we pick all of them and EUR has a bad day... Well, then we are in trouble...)

PS:
Since this fakout-stuff will be part of my system now on, I will spend here waay more time
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It's all psychology...
  • #483
  • Sep 8, 2013 4:42am Sep 8, 2013 4:42am
What do you think about CHFJPY? FTA is in my opinion at 106.

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and EURCAD?
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  • #484
  • Sep 8, 2013 5:15am Sep 8, 2013 5:15am
Quoting Tauru$
Thank you very much for the warm welcome ghous. My thought on the EURGBP. Are you not concern with catching a falling knife scenario with this set up? Looks like some bears cornering profit than a fakeout to me. The distance from the close of the bar to FTA is just mere 30-40 pips. So from a reward to risk perspective, the set up doesn't provide a nice return. Supposing the LLS holds on the 4hr, are we not taking counter trend trade here?
Catching a falling knife, as I understand it, would be going short with price that already accelerated south.
This system IS counter trend in its nature, as Ghous clearly stated.
  • #485
  • Sep 8, 2013 5:28am Sep 8, 2013 5:28am
Quoting LamerTrader
Just my Lamy thoughts... EurSgd is a definite no-go... I think GBPDKK has the most space... EG has the most confluence, which might makes it a higher probability trade. EC looks good too.. but i don't know. I just got this feeling if something was missing here... Maybe the confluence? However note that we got 3 pairs with EUR in it. We have to pick the best one. (Cause if we pick all of them and EUR has a bad day... Well, then we are in trouble...) PS: Since this fakout-stuff will be part of my system now on, I will spend here waay more time...
In your notations on the EURGBP chart you write that there's a strong bearish trend in place. But Ghous said he wants to see a strong price acceleration which pierces the LLS but fails to close under it. Moreover I am not able to see a strong bearish trend. On a larger perspective the pair seems to me in a range between 0.8814 and 0.8395 since the end of Jan13.
You write also that 2 pinbars already formed and bears were stronger. I think that they are not fake breakouts as per definition of this system.
Just my 2c.
  • #486
  • Sep 8, 2013 6:12am Sep 8, 2013 6:12am
Quoting LO-Trader
AUDCHF Will this be considered as a fakeout? {image}
This is a feed different than the 5 Pm NY close feed that most traders now use, but anyway we don't have a close below the HHR. That close below the HHR is critical because it gives you the buffer/cushion of the HHR holding as resistance in case of a pushup. We still can't say with evidence whether the HHR will act or not act as support. As I put very often, "Not enough information"

g.
I believe . . .
  • #487
  • Sep 8, 2013 6:12am Sep 8, 2013 6:12am
Quoting aserbfx
nice thread, love to read about new methods! here is a chart of german deutz on weekly. only for discussing the pros/cons of a setup. go for it... {image}
Whoa! Geez. Love that chart Aser!

g.
I believe . . .
  • #488
  • Sep 8, 2013 6:13am Sep 8, 2013 6:13am
Quoting KOS-fx
{quote} I just added my comments seniors may reply... I want to see whether I am getting this method right.... I think this is not a gud set up...... {image}
very nice indeed. I am glad to have you spot the deficiencies on that setup Kos. Your On your way with a bang!

g.
I believe . . .
  • #489
  • Sep 8, 2013 6:18am Sep 8, 2013 6:18am
Quoting Tauru$
Thank you very much for the warm welcome ghous. My thought on the EURGBP. Are you not concern with catching a falling knife scenario with this set up? Looks like some bears cornering profit than a fakeout to me. The distance from the close of the bar to FTA is just mere 30-40 pips. So from a reward to risk perspective, the set up doesn't provide a nice return. Supposing the LLS holds on the 4hr, are we not taking counter trend trade here?
We are not catching a falling knife with bare hands and palms outstretched. We are standing whistling the beats of our favorite song and as it falls to the ground, next to us, we merely bend down and pick it up from the end its supposed to be picked up.

You see we are catching a "fallen" knife and not a "falling knife" lol. We're being as safe as one could possibly be in doing that action

Analogies aside, the idea isn't to buy straight into strong bearish bars, but to rather wait for it to hit a swing low and give us solid evidence of a rejection at the swing point.

g.
I believe . . .
  • #490
  • Sep 8, 2013 6:20am Sep 8, 2013 6:20am
Quoting LamerTrader
Just my Lamy thoughts... EurSgd is a definite no-go... I think GBPDKK has the most space... EG has the most confluence, which might makes it a higher probability trade. EC looks good too.. but i don't know. I just got this feeling if something was missing here... Maybe the confluence? However note that we got 3 pairs with EUR in it. We have to pick the best one. (Cause if we pick all of them and EUR has a bad day... Well, then we are in trouble...) PS: Since this fakout-stuff will be part of my system now on, I will spend here waay more time...
The Llama's thinking hard this weekend. Good for him

g.
I believe . . .
  • #491
  • Sep 8, 2013 6:23am Sep 8, 2013 6:23am
Quoting Pinbar
{quote} Hi, and welcome to the Ghous House of trading. I am equally excited about being here and learning the art in depth.

Thank you for the welcome sir. I'll definitely enjoy my stay here.
  • #492
  • Sep 8, 2013 6:26am Sep 8, 2013 6:26am
I'll be adding more videos to the You tube channel in the coming week/s.

Let me know if you guys would need any specific topics to be discussed via a video.

I am also planning on a section for very basic videos for total newbies. So if you're in that group, post up a question you think confuses you like hell and you would like a video explanation for it.

PS. I won't have all day to do, produce and upload videos so I might have to pick and choose the topics I feel make the most sense to do a video on.

g.
I believe . . .
  • #493
  • Sep 8, 2013 7:11am Sep 8, 2013 7:11am
Quoting ghous
I'll be adding more videos to the You tube channel in the coming week/s. Let me know if you guys would need any specific topics to be discussed via a video. I am also planning on a section for very basic videos for total newbies. So if you're in that group, post up a question you think confuses you like hell and you would like a video explanation for it. PS. I won't have all day to do, produce and upload videos so I might have to pick and choose the topics I feel make the most sense to do a video on. g.
Hi Ghous, Great thread.

I think I possibly speak for many in saying that spotting a swing failure pattern is pretty easy, but correctly identifying potential trouble areas and targets is more subjective, so I for one, would appreciate a video on that!

Cheers!
  • #494
  • Sep 8, 2013 8:56am Sep 8, 2013 8:56am
Quoting Dr_Zulu
{quote} Catching a falling knife, as I understand it, would be going short with price that already accelerated south. This system IS counter trend in its nature, as Ghous clearly stated.
Thanks for the reminder Dr_Zulu.
  • #495
  • Sep 8, 2013 9:02am Sep 8, 2013 9:02am
Quoting ghous
{quote} We are not catching a falling knife with bare hands and palms outstretched. We are standing whistling the beats of our favorite song and as it falls to the ground, next to us, we merely bend down and pick it up from the end its supposed to be picked up. You see we are catching a "fallen" knife and not a "falling knife" lol. We're being as safe as one could possibly be in doing that action Analogies aside, the idea isn't to buy straight into strong bearish bars, but to rather wait for it to hit a swing low and give us solid evidence...

Points well taken. I will have this pair in my list this week. USDCHF too.
  • #496
  • Sep 8, 2013 9:35am Sep 8, 2013 9:35am
Quoting Tauru$
{quote} Points well taken. I will have this pair in my list this week. USDCHF too.

What is there to watch on USD/CHF this week?
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  • #497
  • Sep 8, 2013 11:53am Sep 8, 2013 11:53am
Hi Pinbar,
Well...from a Jaroo point-of-view...shorts look to be good on UChf starting out the week.

Quoting Pinbar
What is there to watch on USD/CHF this week?
After the poor numbers for NFP on Friday, UChf Daily/4hr prices broke and closed below a Monthly HCR (HHR in here). Prices on the 4hr retraced back to the M HCR, touched it...and closed back below it.
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High probability that the trend will now continue for Monday.

Best,

Eric.
" Be always employed in something useful." - Benjamin Franklin
  • #498
  • Sep 8, 2013 12:54pm Sep 8, 2013 12:54pm
nice thread and system. many thanks Ghous
you are the creator of your own destiny-Shivyog
  • #499
  • Sep 8, 2013 12:54pm Sep 8, 2013 12:54pm
gbpjpy
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audcad
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  • #500
  • Sep 8, 2013 1:32pm Sep 8, 2013 1:32pm
Quoting Gt3rs
{quote} Hi Ghous, Great thread. I think I possibly speak for many in saying that spotting a swing failure pattern is pretty easy, but correctly identifying potential trouble areas and targets is more subjective, so I for one, would appreciate a video on that! Cheers!
Yeah great question. Also pretty basic in nature. I'll definitely put this in the line. One that I am thinking on doing a video for, is the concept of implicit divergence. We discussed it in depth over at the HCR/LCS thread but not so much here.

g.
I believe . . .
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