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Help Me Establish The GbpUsd After Dinner Club 40 replies

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The Club!

  • #7,041
  • Edited 3:06pm Sep 6, 2013 2:53pm | Edited 3:06pm
Quoting infinitus
{quote} Milam: was your 316x filled? Was you able to get out?
Yes filled, I do not want to get out, I want to buy more @ 3215, order placed.

EDIT: Now I can tell why you ask me that, that hourly bearish green pin bar candle.
Wherever you go, there you are.
  • #7,042
  • Sep 6, 2013 3:16pm Sep 6, 2013 3:16pm
I'm done here for today.
Have a great weekend everybody
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #7,043
  • Sep 6, 2013 3:17pm Sep 6, 2013 3:17pm
Quoting milam
{quote} Yes filled, I do not want to get out, I want to buy more @ 3215, order placed. EDIT: Now I can tell why you ask me that, that hourly bearish green pin bar candle.

Milan, what are you doing awake so early? ...and when did you quit trading and start speculating
Those who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it
  • #7,044
  • Sep 6, 2013 3:17pm Sep 6, 2013 3:17pm
1.30 or 1.35? Weekly.
Attached Image
Wherever you go, there you are.
  • #7,045
  • Sep 6, 2013 3:20pm Sep 6, 2013 3:20pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Yes me too, but I want to be conservative with my targets so as not to compel anyone to post in response that I am a crazy bastard My way in 2011 >>> {quote} ...amd still going my way in 2013 >>> {quote}



I can feel the pain
  • #7,046
  • Sep 6, 2013 3:21pm Sep 6, 2013 3:21pm
Quoting milam
1.30 or 1.35? Weekly. {image}
next week, we may see a good fight.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Wherever you go, there you are.
  • #7,047
  • Sep 6, 2013 3:26pm Sep 6, 2013 3:26pm
Quoting Mad Russian
{quote} her sister married already:d

  • #7,048
  • Sep 6, 2013 3:28pm Sep 6, 2013 3:28pm
Quoting milam
{quote} Yes filled, I do not want to get out, I want to buy more @ 3215, order placed. EDIT: Now I can tell why you ask me that, that hourly bearish green pin bar candle.

  • #7,049
  • Sep 6, 2013 3:29pm Sep 6, 2013 3:29pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} I gotta jump in here. Infi trades LT MT and ST. I guess he likes banking pips on a daily basis. I would love to do that also, but I'm too lazy


That's it basically
  • #7,050
  • Sep 6, 2013 3:33pm Sep 6, 2013 3:33pm
Quoting PipTrapper
{quote} Milan, what are you doing awake so early? ...and when did you quit trading and start speculating
It is already 6: 30, here is spring time, at 5:30 the birds singing very loudly especially the kookaburras, yes I would like to prove that technical analysis is a bluff.

Inserted Video
Wherever you go, there you are.
  • #7,051
  • Sep 6, 2013 3:37pm Sep 6, 2013 3:37pm
Quoting TraderPablo
{quote} ok what sftw. data-vendor ru using if u don't mind me asking u can pm me with if so desired.
For analysis, I use IFC Markets Software (free demo)and Thompson Reuters( not free)

live with Pepperstone Australia( if you sign up with them let me be your IB ��.)

have a good weekend guys! & Gals.
Markets are not Random, they are designed!
  • #7,052
  • Sep 6, 2013 3:56pm Sep 6, 2013 3:56pm
Quoting TraderPablo
{quote} ok sounds good ....probably "snakeoil" http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Snake_oil_(cryptography)
Hey Pablo,

I think I caught a true sample of what you call "sneak oil"
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  • #7,053
  • Sep 6, 2013 4:10pm Sep 6, 2013 4:10pm
Quoting BoringIsGood
{quote} Why in the world would you go overweight with eur longs or even hedge with such deep LT targets? Seems someone who prides himself on being experienced would be comfortable with riding a potential wave 2 up to 1.33 when we could be entering an extended wave 5 just as easily... Seems a bit short sighted on your part, wouldn't ya say?

Hi BIG,

as PT already mentioned: I trade on multiple TF's, and each TF has its own cycles.

Mainly I trade a kind of "mean reverting" system. When my statistical system gives me a strong indication, that price has a very high probability for a reverting process on all TF's up to daily, I would be a fool to not cover or hedge (full or partially) my short positions (in this case I mainly "pseudo-hedge" with offsetting positions in same instrument). In trading currencies you have to accept that you do often see, far more often than in trading stocks, that price retraces very deep.

So even when the long term targets are very huge, it pays dearly within such a big swing, to play the instrument from both sides.

It is really much fun to let a short position run into support and then start to partially hedge the position, or at some points to even switch the side.



I called, e.g., the top in GU a few month ago and had (still have) short positions from 57x. I rode that down to 47x and now up again. Without taking profit. Without hedging. Can you understand how stupid this is?

Well, problem is: when we say something like "my target in EU is parity", then this itself means nothing. Eventually we are right, eventually we are completely wrong, eventually we are already dead when target is reached.

Perception and speculation do not buy a beer or a bread. Only when we reap in the rewards we will be able to pay our bills.


My strategy simply in this case is, to hold a core short position until final target is reached eventually. On the way to this goal I trade long, more short, hedge, scalp, swing whatever. At the end of the day it is the pips in your account........


In the case, that price had gone down to 3060, and all of my shorts had been hedged, and even when I would have been net long then, a further decline in price would have been no problem.

When you start to buy (hedge) in heavy support, but price extends more down, you can easily build later on more longs to get to BE for all longs very easily

So many people here in FF waited for 3080-3090 today and yesterday, and you can bet no one of them got the entry for this nice long.


Trading means taking risk. Sometimes we win, sometimes we lose. The common, all traders share is, simply, we do not have a crystal ball.



And again: when my statistical system advises me to go long like this afternoon, nearly everytime I can profit handsomely.



Trading is a high educated game on probabilities.



Right now, structure in EU over the last days is a mess. Can go up in a bigger wave 2, can go down, maybe in an extended or ED wave 5.


But when structure is not clear, isn't it then not a good idea to reduce exposure?
  • #7,054
  • Sep 6, 2013 4:17pm Sep 6, 2013 4:17pm
Quoting Forexcube
{quote} Thanks' forexboom! You can download the PivotD_v5 at e.g. #1 there: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=325369 {image} PivotsD_v5.mq4



Saw your thread "TASAYC System"...I do now get the whole picture why you have been (absolutely right to be) so upset about MTI...
Full in-deep review o your pages already booked on my agenda.
That's things like this that are making me loving the "Bookmark Thread" function here on FF...
  • #7,055
  • Sep 6, 2013 4:24pm Sep 6, 2013 4:24pm
Quoting andexQ
{quote} Hi Delta1One, Yes I was pointing to Weekly & Daily chart to spot mid-term buyer/seller. As you can see unless there is strong-willed and powerful buyer comes in, definitely will free-fall.. so be carefull. Added: Notice that every upward movement since 19 August always ended with low volume, this is an accumulation of bearish sign.
Thks for clarification.
  • #7,056
  • Sep 6, 2013 4:55pm Sep 6, 2013 4:55pm
Quoting infinitus
{quote} Hi BIG, as PT already mentioned: I trade on multiple TF's, and each TF has its own cycles. Mainly I trade a kind of "mean reverting" system. When my statistical system gives me a strong indication, that price has a very high probability for a reverting process on all TF's up to daily, I would be a fool to not cover or hedge (full or partially) my short positions (in this case I mainly "pseudo-hedge" with offsetting positions in same instrument). In trading currencies you have to accept that you do often see, far more often than in trading...
So many people here in FF waited for 3080-3090 today and yesterday, and you can bet no one of them got the entry for this nice long.

I DID
  • #7,057
  • Sep 6, 2013 4:58pm Sep 6, 2013 4:58pm
Quoting infinitus
{quote} Hi BIG, as PT already mentioned: I trade on multiple TF's, and each TF has its own cycles. Mainly I trade a kind of "mean reverting" system. When my statistical system gives me a strong indication, that price has a very high probability for a reverting process on all TF's up to daily, I would be a fool to not cover or hedge (full or partially) my short positions (in this case I mainly "pseudo-hedge" with offsetting positions in same instrument). In trading currencies you have to accept that you do often see, far more often than in trading...

I called, e.g., the top in GU a few month ago and had (still have) short positions from 57x. I rode that down to 47x and now up again. Without taking profit. Without hedging. Can you understand how stupid this is?
thats my main enemy , not to book profit and give it back to bastards
  • #7,058
  • Sep 6, 2013 5:07pm Sep 6, 2013 5:07pm
Quoting theDHT
{quote} my algo runs off excel! im a bit of a excel/vba junkie tbh
Great!
I'm completely xls & vbe addicted as well. No remedy will never get me out of it at this stage.

But....did you mean your algo is running on xls and is feeding somehow TRADING execution on your account ????
You're getting me highly interested here...
  • #7,059
  • Sep 6, 2013 7:14pm Sep 6, 2013 7:14pm
Quoting infinitus
{quote} Hi BIG, .....

Right now, structure in EU over the last days is a mess. Can go up in a bigger wave 2, can go down, maybe in an extended or ED wave 5. But when structure is not clear, isn't it then not a good idea to reduce exposure?

First off, thanks for the well thought out reply. I do appreciate it as my original comment was made in hopes of starting a productive conversation. Glad to see that it worked.

I do understand what you are trying to do by hedging or even going against your LT targets for a period of mean reversion. But I suppose my point is that I don't think right now it would give the highest expected value.

I.E., let's say for argument sake that there is a 50%/50% chance of the euro moving into an extended wave 5 or a diagonal wave 2. The obvious target for a wave 2 is 1.3280-1.3320. So let's average that to 1.33 for convenience sake. I don't know exactly where you'd put your stop but from your previous posts it sounds like it would be around 1.3080 (correct me if I'm wrong here).

On the other hand an extended wave 5 could easily target 1.30 (calculated by approximating the 1 of 5 118 pip (1.3222 - 1.3104) wave as well as the 260 pip (1.3397-1.3137) wave 3). And as you well know an extended wave 5 can just keep going further than anyone could imagine. I've got my stops on the new shorts from today just over 1.3222, so around 60 pips or so.

By my calculations, with an entry at 1.3165, the expected value of trying to catch the wave 2 yields (135-85)*.50 = 25 pips. Where as positioning for the extended 5 gives an expected value of (165-60)*.50 = 52.5 pips.

Depending on how much weight you'd give to an ED wave 5 could change the EV, depending on whether one would be clever enough to differentiate from an extended wave 5 and get out near BE or not. But it wouldn't outweigh the over 2:1 benefit that the extended 5 has over the 2.

In any event, was curious as to your reasoning. Hope my perspective offers some new ways to think about a trade.
  • #7,060
  • Sep 6, 2013 9:13pm Sep 6, 2013 9:13pm
Quoting Delta1One
{quote} Hey Pablo, I think I caught a true sample of what you call "sneak oil" {image}
that is part of it....http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Snake_oil_(cryptography)
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