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  • #64,221
  • Sep 5, 2013 8:35pm Sep 5, 2013 8:35pm
Quoting forexalien
{quote} The more you Learn, The more you Earn..............Alien
Never a truer word said in jest but I have to say I have learned more from the contributions on FF than from paid subscription to a "trading educator"
  • #64,222
  • Sep 5, 2013 9:13pm Sep 5, 2013 9:13pm
Quoting edindzeko
{quote} Thanks. Good read for a non-Aussie. Seems like the fundamentals always play into the technicals... the lines are in the sand, and then we get catalysts....

Hi edindzeko,
I'm not looking to start any arguments as we're all entitled to our opinions but I hope you read the comments below that article as well and not just that biased opinion.
Here's a look at the other side of the story...
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/austra...#ixzz2diGB7yMP
and
http://www.theage.com.au/comment/the...t828.html#poll

cheers
  • #64,223
  • Sep 5, 2013 9:20pm Sep 5, 2013 9:20pm
Good Morning!!
Today's S/R MT4 Templates

EURO
AUDUSD
EURJPY

I will post the other pairs before London.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...56#post6944956
FX is a Bitc*h!, No one keeps me wake all night but FX does!!
  • #64,224
  • Sep 5, 2013 9:25pm Sep 5, 2013 9:25pm
Quoting mm3934
{quote} Hi edindzeko, I'm not looking to start any arguments as we're all entitled to our opinions but I hope you read the comments below that article as well and not just that biased opinion. Here's a look at the other side of the story... http://www.smh.com.au/comment/austra...#ixzz2diGB7yMP and http://www.theage.com.au/comment/the...t828.html#poll cheers
Thanks for posting, I appreciate seeing both sides of the equation.

In terms of the world economy I don't think there is much debate though. Australia is a bright light in comparison to Europe or even USA, but certainly vulnerable to trade balance moreso than others.
  • #64,225
  • Sep 5, 2013 9:26pm Sep 5, 2013 9:26pm
Quoting mm3934
{quote} Hi edindzeko, I'm not looking to start any arguments as we're all entitled to our opinions but I hope you read the comments below that article as well and not just that biased opinion. Here's a look at the other side of the story... http://www.smh.com.au/comment/austra...#ixzz2diGB7yMP and http://www.theage.com.au/comment/the...t828.html#poll cheers
Hi there MM3934, no argument from me but I think we need to give some perspective for our non-Aussie friends - These Fairfax papers are left leaning papers and have supported labor for years and despite their bias printed an excellent editorial today which demonstrates so well where the government went wrong and why oz is in a mess politically and economically. http://www.smh.com.au/comment/smh-ed...905-2t7wm.html
  • #64,226
  • Sep 5, 2013 9:28pm Sep 5, 2013 9:28pm
Quoting edindzeko
{quote} Thanks for posting, I appreciate seeing both sides of the equation. In terms of the world economy I don't think there is much debate though. Australia is a bright light in comparison to Europe or even USA, but certainly vulnerable to trade balance moreso than others.

thanks for responding edindzeko,
a balanced view of everything is always best imho...

enough of politics... back to trading

cheers
  • #64,227
  • Sep 5, 2013 9:29pm Sep 5, 2013 9:29pm
Now wait nfp.. what do you think about before nfp release??

Any1 have a prediction?? I think ausi in next hour want to break high and will go down ahead of the data release..

My assumptions if unemployment claims good for US, i think nfp good to because when the unemployment rate decreases. sectors of the economy could be looking good, available jobs and good income for the state as well .. so my opinion for good data for nfp today ..
how do you guys predict??
  • #64,228
  • Sep 5, 2013 9:33pm Sep 5, 2013 9:33pm
Quoting Surgical
{quote} Hi there MM3934, no argument from me but I think we need to give some perspective for our non-Aussie friends - These Fairfax papers are left leaning papers and have supported labor for years and despite their bias printed an excellent editorial today which demonstrates so well where the government went wrong and why oz is in a mess politically and economically. http://www.smh.com.au/comment/smh-ed...905-2t7wm.html
Hi Surgical,
I appreciate your views but if we're talking bias shouldn't we also look at the Murdoch press.

Anyway I really don't want to get into a tit for tat. The best thing about Democracy is that we're all allowed to hold and voice our opinions.

Happy trading

cheers
  • #64,229
  • Sep 5, 2013 9:57pm Sep 5, 2013 9:57pm
Quoting Surgical
{quote} Never a truer word said in jest but I have to say I have learned more from the contributions on FF than from paid subscription to a "trading educator"
There are a few genuine contributors on these threads................

Learning to separate the junk from the good stuff is half the battle................
The More You Learn, The More You Earn.....
  • #64,230
  • Sep 5, 2013 9:58pm Sep 5, 2013 9:58pm
Quoting santuary123
Now wait nfp.. what do you think about before nfp release?? Any1 have a prediction?? I think ausi in next hour want to break high and will go down ahead of the data release.. My assumptions if unemployment claims good for US, i think nfp good to because when the unemployment rate decreases. sectors of the economy could be looking good, available jobs and good income for the state as well .. so my opinion for good data for nfp today .. how do you guys predict??
My prediction is hinged on the 10yr note. I am cynical with respect to US news though so take that into account.

Today the 10yr closed at 3.0, a very critical level.

Last time we saw 2.94, we had a bad housing #, and the 10yr retreated to 2.8 area.

Overall, NFP's should slightly improve due to seasonal employment with teachers.


My opinion: NFP's are 172k = below estimate. Taper still on the table but the 10yr comes down.

AUDUSD fails to break .919. We close the week in this range of 9115 - 9190. Election Saturday. Monday we start fresh.
  • #64,231
  • Sep 5, 2013 10:04pm Sep 5, 2013 10:04pm
Quoting mm3934
{quote} Hi Surgical, I appreciate your views but if we're talking bias shouldn't we also look at the Murdoch press. Anyway I really don't want to get into a tit for tat. The best thing about Democracy is that we're all allowed to hold and voice our opinions. Happy trading cheers
Hi, Thanks. I think both sides show their agenda rather than reporting balanced and reasoned sides of the debate. I try to get my information from broader / multiple sources.

Getting down to the fundamentals. Don Argus did a good paper the other day which highlighted debt issues and whilst most focus has been on Govt. debt and how it measures up favourably against the rest of the world, the inclusion of corporate and household debt means we don't stack up very well at all. For instance total debt (state and commonwealth governments, corporate and household) as a percentage of GDP is 222% for Australia and 282% in USA. I think these numbers exclude superannuation obligations. The speed at which Australia racked up this debt is also a worrying feature of the present situation which is the motivation for the focus on the need for surpluses

Have a good day.
  • #64,232
  • Edited 10:54pm Sep 5, 2013 10:07pm | Edited 10:54pm
http://www.lawagency.co.uk/gallery/W...t%20launch.jpg

Hopefully youve been loading up longs while you had the chance. Set target to 0.9250 or just below 0.92 if ur conservative and dont want to hold over weekend. If u short now ur just asking for a margin call.

NFP EXPECTATIONS ARE TOO HIGH. THERE IS SO MUCH ROOM FOR DISAPPOINTMENT.
The best dam pilot in the sky
  • #64,233
  • Sep 5, 2013 10:16pm Sep 5, 2013 10:16pm
Quoting Surgical
{quote} Hi, Thanks. I think both sides show their agenda rather than reporting balanced and reasoned sides of the debate. I try to get my information from broader / multiple sources. Getting down to the fundamentals. Don Argus did a good paper the other day which highlighted debt issues and whilst most focus has been on Govt. debt and how it measures up favourably against the rest of the world, the inclusion of corporate and household debt means we don't stack up very well at all. For instance total debt (state and commonwealth governments, corporate...

Hi Surgical, I appreciate your view but I respectfully disagree. Put 40 economists in a room and you'll get 39 differing opinions on what's the best way to tackle a situation. All opinions other than mathematical facts can be true if argued correctly.

Happy Trading and may you get many green pips

cheers

edit for typo
  • #64,234
  • Sep 5, 2013 10:55pm Sep 5, 2013 10:55pm
Quoting AJhustler88
http://www.lawagency.co.uk/gallery/W.../img]Hopefully youve been loading up longs while you had the chance. Set target to 0.9250 or just below 0.92 if ur conservative and dont want to hold over weekend. If u short now ur just asking for a margin call.NFP EXPECTATIONS ARE TOO HIGH. THERE IS SO MUCH ROOM FOR DISAPPOINTMENT.

You tried this yesterday mate. Relax your bold assertions, we don't appreciate these vibrations...
  • #64,235
  • Sep 5, 2013 10:55pm Sep 5, 2013 10:55pm
Quoting mm3934
{quote} Hi Surgical, I appreciate your view but I respectfully disagree. Put 40 economists in a room and you'll get 39 differing opinions on what's the best way to tackle a situation. All opinions other than mathematical facts can be true if argued correctly. Happy Trading and may you get many green pips cheers edit for typo
Hi,

The fact that Don Argus is not an economist is great - it probably means his opinion and his presentation of mathematical facts about Australia's debt can be relied on and arguably correct.
  • #64,236
  • Sep 5, 2013 11:02pm Sep 5, 2013 11:02pm
Quoting Surgical
{quote} Hi, The fact that Don Argus is not an economist is great - it probably means his opinion and his presentation of mathematical facts about Australia's debt can be relied on and arguably correct.

mate, I wasn't referring to Don Argus with my little economist attempt at humour. I'm sure everyone knows he is a very well respected businessman. But it is still an opinion.

edit.. an example of a Mathematical Fact is 1+1=2. Something that is Not an opinion
cheers
  • #64,237
  • Sep 5, 2013 11:27pm Sep 5, 2013 11:27pm
Quoting mm3934
{quote} mate, I wasn't referring to Don Argus with my little economist attempt at humour. I'm sure everyone knows he is a very well respected businessman. But it is still an opinion. edit.. an example of a Mathematical Fact is 1+1=2. Something that is Not an opinion cheers
Hi,

Let's finish this debate as there is money to be made but you must admit that the numbers presented Don's paper are facts not opinions. The fact that the overall Australian debt is 222% of GDP vs USA 282% (derived mathematically) is more telling than the misleading statement that "its net debt is less than an eighth of the countriy's gross domestic product" You see what newspapers do? they run an agenda and distort the facts to support their contention.

No more from me.

Cheers
  • #64,238
  • Sep 5, 2013 11:31pm Sep 5, 2013 11:31pm
I have no idea what the current convo is about bout since it sounds like data manipulation, anyone hear about Gallop poll saying that the US unemployment is more like 8.6 percent? I think everyone knows about the underemployment, but having some work is far different than no work.
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
  • #64,239
  • Sep 5, 2013 11:49pm Sep 5, 2013 11:49pm
Quoting Pip Anon
I have no idea what the current convo is about bout since it sounds like data manipulation, anyone hear about Gallop poll saying that the US unemployment is more like 8.6 percent? I think everyone knows about the underemployment, but having some work is far different than no work.
Hi, Politicians love to talk about the huge number of jobs they have created because they are interested in the news bite and impressions rather than substance. Here in Australia we have seen a big shift out of full time in to part time employment. The official numbers do not necessarily reflect what is going on in peoples lives and whilst many are happy to accept any work when things are tough, not much seems to have been done to generate meaningful full time jobs where people don't have to make up the difference with govt. hand-outs. Official employment surveys here regard more than 1 hour week as being employed. Employed or underemployed, it would be truly hard to support oneself on such meagre hours. It may work for a time but at some point there is a day of reckoning - perhaps it's at election time.
  • #64,240
  • Sep 5, 2013 11:55pm Sep 5, 2013 11:55pm
Quoting Surgical
{quote} Hi, Politicians love to talk about the huge number of jobs they have created because they are interested in the news bite and impressions rather than substance. Here in Australia we have seen a big shift out of full time in to part time employment. The official numbers do not necessarily reflect what is going on in peoples lives and whilst many are happy to accept any work when things are tough, not much seems to have been done to generate meaningful full time jobs where people don't have to make up the difference with govt. hand-outs. Official...
I know what you mean. To be completely honest, about 10-12 months ago I was arguing to an Aussie that the economy was not as strong as it was. He insured me that it was, and here it is. You know I read on the IMF report (I believe. I will have to find it again) that the Australian employment counts full-time work at 5 hours per week lol.

Here in the states, they brag about a "stronger labor market" as people, even educated people, work two part-time jobs because full-time is very limited. Obama said he created over 6 million jobs but refuses to deducted the 5 million lost in 2009.

It all just sickens me. Is it better than 2009? Yea sure, but we're not skipping through fields of daisy.
When the facts change I change my mind, what do you do sir
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